Papers by Pablo Klein-Bernard
Journal of World Trade, Aug 2012
This article is about the World Trade Organization’s Doha Round negotiation on industrial tariffs... more This article is about the World Trade Organization’s Doha Round negotiation on industrial tariffs. We make a number of observations on the the most recent negotiating text, the December 2008 modalities, based on simulations of its implementation for different types of WTO members. The imports of developed countries and advanced developing countries, which represent one third of the WTO membership but 95% of world trade, are liberalized to a small degree. The other two thirds of the WTO membership are covered under a complex web of special categories and exceptions that calls into question their future participation in the international trading system. Moreover, the tariff reductions are to be achieved in a highly differentiated manner across WTO members. All the different cases and carve outs in the text are like cushions that members use to avoid undertaking a more significant trade liberalization, but in doing so they also defeat the Doha mandate in terms of the degree of ambition required.
Revista del Centro de Derecho Económico Internacional , Sep 2012
This paper analyzes the relationship between subsidies and and the environment. Firstly, we exami... more This paper analyzes the relationship between subsidies and and the environment. Firstly, we examine the impact that diferent types of subsidies can have on the environment. Secondly, we examine the international rules on subsidies in the World Trade Organization (WTO), as well as possible future rules being negotiated and their relation with environmental considerations. In particular, we mention the current dispute between Japan and Canada, where the WTO adjudicative bodies will for the first time rule on the issue of whether GATT Article XX can be invoked in the context of a subsidy, and, especially if there is a way to justify a domestic content requirement under that provision. As green technologies have become a battleground between countries seeking position of leadership , we will see more subsidies and other protectionist measures brought to the WTO’s dispute settlement in the future.
Puentes, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development , Jul 2008
The Doha Round has produced a significant early harvest with the elimination of all agricultural ... more The Doha Round has produced a significant early harvest with the elimination of all agricultural export subsidies by 2013. The current situation is not so clear in the area of non-agricultural subsidies, except for the proposals on fisheries. This article seeks to review the performance of the Uruguay Round non-agricultural subsidy disciplines and explore possible improvements which are not currently being discussed.
Presentation given at the WTO Public Forum, October 2007
This Guide covers the main substantive elements of the consolidated texts on rules circulated by ... more This Guide covers the main substantive elements of the consolidated texts on rules circulated by Guillermo Valles on November 30, 2007.
This event study measures the effects of the news generated by the approval process of the North ... more This event study measures the effects of the news generated by the approval process of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), on the returns of Mexican stocks during 1993. In particular, I look at the relationship between the returns on the event dates and industry-specific comparative advantage. The market experienced significant positive abnormal returns around two important dates: the conclusion of the environment and labor side agreements and the final approval. Furthermore, I find a strong positive correlation between the returns of an industry following the approval of the agreement, and that industry’s trade surplus in 1993. The correlations of the returns near the approval date and the industry’s labor share and elasticity of scale are weak but have the expected signs (positive and negative). The correlation with the C4 concentration index has the wrong sign (returns tended to be positive in the most concentrated industries).
This article explains the use of the Simulated Maximum Likelihood method to estimating the Yield ... more This article explains the use of the Simulated Maximum Likelihood method to estimating the Yield Curve.
This study is an estimation of the (daily) yields of Peso-denominated Negotiable Certificates of ... more This study is an estimation of the (daily) yields of Peso-denominated Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCD’s) dependent on local latent factors and observable factors (the Mexican rates of inflation and growth), a foreign latent factor extracted from Eurodollar yields, and the Federal Reserve’s Target rate as announced at FOMC meetings. No-Arbitrage constraints derived in the exponential-affine factor framework of Vasicek (1977) are always rejected by the Peso yields. The latent factors derived form the Eurodollar and Peso yields predict the log of the change in the exchange rate substantially better than interest rates.
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Papers by Pablo Klein-Bernard