Papers by simona soare
Review of Military History no. 1-2/2013, pp. 49-70
This paper is taking a closer look at the hypothesis of US decline and investigates closely the a... more This paper is taking a closer look at the hypothesis of US decline and investigates closely the arguments of the declinist school of American foreign policy. Keywords: relative power decline, declinist school, rise and fall of great powers, overstretch, deep engagement, offshore balancing, disengagement, retrenchment, rebalancing America's foreign policy Istorie recent` [i geopoliticL
Monitor Strategic no. 1-2/2013, pp. 54-87
Romanian-Russian relations have been plagued by tension over a host of issues ever since the end ... more Romanian-Russian relations have been plagued by tension over a host of issues ever since the end of the Cold War. Bilateral problems such as the returning of the Romanian national treasury, as well as multilateral issues like the denunciation of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact of 1939, energy security and different rival energy infrastructure projects, regional democratic transformation on EU and NATO borders, the American missile shield in Eastern Europe, etc have acted as an obstacle to an efficient détente and normalization between Moscow and Bucharest since 1991. Although bilateral relations have taken a clear path towards normalization since 2003, mutual mistrust and suspicion acts as an obstacle in furthering relations on a pragmatic and mutually beneficial basis.
Journal of East European and Asian Studies, Dec 2012
Monitor Strategic, Dec 2012
The analysis focuses on the three types of challenges to the EaP and the EaP's crisis management ... more The analysis focuses on the three types of challenges to the EaP and the EaP's crisis management flagship initiative: economic challenges, institutional-bureaucratic challenges and regional competition. It finds that while they are very different in nature and context, the three categories of challenges pose relatively similarly serious problems for the EaP. The economic challenges alone will not essentially threaten the EaP. Even if the EU maintains the current levels of funding the EaP or even modestly reduces it, funding has already been so low so far that a moderate reduction of its current levels is unlikely to fundamentally endanger the EaP.
The Obama administration’s missile defense system in Europe, of which Romania is a part, is one o... more The Obama administration’s missile defense system in Europe, of which Romania is a part, is one of the most comprehensive of change of strategic military relations in Europe - and worldwide - after Cold War. How does this afect the national security of small and medium-size like Romania? What are the main gains, vulnerabilities and risks faced by Romania in deciding to host elements of the American missile defense system? This article try to look upon and answer pragmatically - emphasizing the strategic aspects of it - to these fundamental questions relations regarding Romania’s national security.
Books by simona soare
Sub povara a 90.000 de tone de diplomație? Statele Unite ale Americii, strategia hegemonică și de... more Sub povara a 90.000 de tone de diplomație? Statele Unite ale Americii, strategia hegemonică și declinul relativ de putere
[Under the pressure of 90,000 tons of diplomacy? The United States of America, the hegemonic strategy and the relative power decline]
Simona R. Soare, Ph.D.
Bucharest: Military Publishing House, 2013, 308pg
The book entitled Sub povara a 90.000 de tone de diplomație? Statele Unite ale Americii, strategia hegemonică și declinul relativ de putere [Under the pressure of 90,000 tons of diplomacy? The United States of America, the hegemonic strategy and the relative power decline] written by dr. Simona R. Soare and published in December 2013 by the Romanian-based Military Publishing House focuses on a topic of international interest and relevance to both the theory and practice of contemporary International Relations – the relative power decline of great powers, as potentially exemplified by the United States nowadays. The book’s title is based on a game of words – 90,000 tons of diplomacy – used to promote the Nimitz aircraft carrier class, a standing symbol of the American preponderant, colossal power in the international system. The relevance of the book in the field of International Relations is provided particularly by the European approach to the topic of American relative power decline. The book starts by inquiring the arguments of the so-called Declinist school of American foreign policy, represented by established authors such as Barry R. Posen, Christopher Layne, Aaron Friedberg, Thomas Mandelbaum, etc. In particular, the book seeks to investigate whether the US is truly experiencing relative power decline as argued by the declinist authors mentioned above, among others; what empirical evidence is there to support the declinist arguments? What is the historical background of American declinism? What makes the late-2000s especially relevant empirically for the American decline theses? Which aspects of the current US grand strategy are particularly relevant for causing/supporting/hurrying the American relative power decline? What alternatives are there to address/correct them and at what strategic cost?
The main objective of the book is to critically revise and empirically test the Declinist school’s arguments as well as to assess whether the US is truly experiencing relative power decline. The research is a mixed-methodological undertaking grounded in neoclassical realism which emphasizes the fact that great power’s grand strategy and security strategies are influenced by the structural aspects of the international system and by the need to respond to its strategic imperatives. Relative power decline is especially relevant a period for a great power from the point of view of both how relative power decline is defined theoretically and operationalized empirically, as well as from the point of view of the management of relative power decline by a great power – addressing the debate over interests, strategies, measures, etc. and their respective effectiveness in preventing or averting relative power decline. The research methodology is a mix of quantitative and qualitative instruments, as well as mono-graphic cross-historical comparison of American national power attributes as well as a comparison of American national power attributes, as defined by Morgenthau and accepted by the IR establishments, with other state actors in the international system at this point and at other previous historical moments. The book concludes (a) that the US is not (yet) experiencing relative power decline; rather the declinists’ definition of relative power decline is too vague and its operationalization empirically leads to the confusion of the relative power decline with the deep institutional and political crisis that the US is experiencing indeed. The book also addressed the issue of American imperial overstretch as argued by the declinists in relation to the European allies and concludes that (b) there is no conclusive empirical evidence to support imperial overstretch from the point of view of the level of US defense budgeting, number of US forward military bases in Europe, US defense effort towards Europe, etc. By looking at the constraints on the US power and its exercise in the international system, the book concludes that most constraints originate from the domestic aspects of US policy-making and economic fields; and these constraints that are most relevant and conditional on American forward military presence in the system are not structural as argued by the declinists, but are in fact domestic fiscal and economic constraints whose immediate conditionality is relatively high, but not prohibitively so and long-term conditionality is rather likely to diminish after 2015 onward. Moreover, there are military administrative aspects – such as poor management of defense funds – that have acted as strong conditional constraints on the US defense budget and grand strategy more so than other strategic undertakings. (c) How the US chooses to confront and address these flaws in its Goliath’s armor is likely to have a huge impact on the international system as a whole – e.g. disengagement, isolationism, retrenchment, off-shore balancing, etc. The book looks at the alternative strategies currently under debate in the US in relative power decline management and underlines their impact and importance for European security.
The book consists of five chapters. The first chapter critically and in depth investigates the theoretical foundations of the declinist school of American foreign policy; the second chapter focuses on the history of American declinism and building on Josef Joffe’s waves of decline, retraces the arguments behind each of the five waves of American relative power decline starting from the late 1950s to present. The third chapter investigates in great detail the economic attributes of American power, central in many ways to the declinists’ arguments and policy recommendations. The fourth chapter focuses on an investigation of American military power resources, whereas the last chapter focuses on the impact of alternative strategies under debate in the US for relative power decline management on European security in general and European military security and global status in particular.
Last, but not least, the book addresses a wide range of target audiences, from the IR scholars, to IR students and practitioners, the representatives of security-related governmental or international institutions, diplomats, the representatives of international security NGOs and think tanks, as well as the general audience interested in US foreign policy and international politics more generally.
Book Chapters by simona soare
The Eastern Partnership: The Road So Far (Bucharest: Military Publishing House, 2013 )
281 dr. simona r. soare 282 The paper addresses the apparent disconnect between the structural an... more 281 dr. simona r. soare 282 The paper addresses the apparent disconnect between the structural and process aspects of civil crisis management modern, democratic institution building in the Eastern Partnership. However, the analysis finds that the EaP process and structure performances are relatively correlated and balanced. However, the EaP's average performance in civil crisis management reform is only minor, indicating little, unsubstantial progress in most relevant indicators measured in a modified 2x2 table. Moreover, there are major differences between the EaP performance across the EaP partner countries, i.e. Armenia and Georgia are best performers; Ukraine's performance is the lowest, while Azerbaijan and the Republic of Moldova have average performances.
The Eastern Partnership: The Road So Far” (Bucharest: Military Publishing House, 2013 )
The analysis focuses on three purposes: to look at the development, functioning and composition o... more The analysis focuses on three purposes: to look at the development, functioning and composition of the EaP's multilateral track since its creation in 2009; to assess the performance of the EaP's multilateral track; and to identify the current challenges for the EaP's multilateral track. I argue that the EaP's multilateral track suffers from an inherent democracy deficit at three distinct levels -representation (and/or participation), synergy and inclusiveness. Its performance is reduced by modest scores in inclusiveness and synergy, essential dimensions of a network-based, joint ownership institutional and policy arrangement. Moreover, research findings indicate there is a clear disconnect and an obvious discrepancy between the EaP's internal performance and its external performance. That is, the EaP seems much better able to organize itself internally to achieve its internal goals in comparison to achieving its external goals (pursued outside its borders). Thus, the EaP's multilateral track has a polarized reputation with regard to its external performance.
Relatiile internationale contemporane. Teme centrale in politica mondiala, Daniel Biro (ed.), May 2013
Transferul de armament este implicit abordat in principalele eurente ale teoriei relatiilor inter... more Transferul de armament este implicit abordat in principalele eurente ale teoriei relatiilor internationale -mai ales datorita aeeentului pus de scoala realista pe capabilitatile militare ale statelor -tara a face tnsa obieetul unei analize explieite in mod freevent. Cel mai adesea eereetarea transferului de armament este apanajul studiilor de seeuritate, al eelor strategiee sau ehiar al domeniului stiintelor militare, avand in vedere earaeterul sau tehnie foarte pronuntat, Ce este Insl1transferul de armament? Definitiile eoneeptului de "transfer de armament" sunt multiple, tarl1 a exista 0 definitie agreata a aeestuia pentru ea literatura de specialitate tinde sl1 se eoneentreze asupra comertului eu arme (Krause, 1992; Levine, Sen, Smith, 995, 1999; Stohl, Grillot, 2009) ee reprezinta insa numai una dintre eomponentele sale. Acesta din urma poate include pe langa comertul eu armament sl asistenta si/sau donatiile militare, transferurile inregistrate sau neinregistrate de arme~i munitii etc. in esenta, transferul de armament reprezinta instrainarea, donarea sau eomercializarea de arme, munitii, piese de sehimb, tehnologie militara~i eu uz dual si/sau sesiuni de antrenament in vederea utilizarii armelor sau tehnologiilor militare transferate. Desi eei mai mari producatori de armament sunt eompanii private -eu exceptia, poate, a Rusiei, care ocupa locul al doilea in topul marilor producatori globaJi de armament, unde marile companii producatoare de armament sunt in proprietatea majoritara a statului -, statele sunt in ultima instants responsabile pentru obtinerea permisiunii de a face transferuri de armament
Relatiile internationale contemporane. Teme centrale in politica mondiala, Daniel Biro (ed.), May 2013
Pacea Iluziilor este una dintre cele mai influente cărți în domeniul Relațiilor Internaționale di... more Pacea Iluziilor este una dintre cele mai influente cărți în domeniul Relațiilor Internaționale din ultimul deceniu. Argumentul cărții se încadrează perfect într-una din marile dezbateri ale domeniului Relațiilor Internaționale după sfârșitul Războiului Rece, una dintre cele mai complexe dezbateri ale ultimelor decenii, care atinge aspecte importante precum rolul Statelor Unite în sistem și fundamentele acestuia, natura și limitele puterii americane, constrângerile sistemice și interne asupra puterii americane, răspunsul celorlalte state din sistem față de puterea americană, etc. Filtrată prin aceste aspecte, în centrul dezbaterii se află problema menținerii poziției de preeminență sistemică a Statelor Unite pentru o perioadă cât mai lungă. Fără a fi exhaustiv, acest studiu își propune o inventariere a principalelor abordări componente ale dezbaterii și o clasificare a acestora care să ne ajute să percepem cu o mai mare acuratețe argumentele avansate, ca bază a lecturii Păcii Iluziilor. Cuvântulcheie care dă tonul acestei dezbateri este de departe paradoxul. Argumentele construite de autori au la bază o serie de paradoxuri și situații excepționale care sunt cel puțin surprinzătoare, având în vedere înclinația realistă a autoarei.
garnet.sciencespobordeaux.fr
MONITOR STRATEGIC, Jan 1, 1903
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Papers by simona soare
Books by simona soare
[Under the pressure of 90,000 tons of diplomacy? The United States of America, the hegemonic strategy and the relative power decline]
Simona R. Soare, Ph.D.
Bucharest: Military Publishing House, 2013, 308pg
The book entitled Sub povara a 90.000 de tone de diplomație? Statele Unite ale Americii, strategia hegemonică și declinul relativ de putere [Under the pressure of 90,000 tons of diplomacy? The United States of America, the hegemonic strategy and the relative power decline] written by dr. Simona R. Soare and published in December 2013 by the Romanian-based Military Publishing House focuses on a topic of international interest and relevance to both the theory and practice of contemporary International Relations – the relative power decline of great powers, as potentially exemplified by the United States nowadays. The book’s title is based on a game of words – 90,000 tons of diplomacy – used to promote the Nimitz aircraft carrier class, a standing symbol of the American preponderant, colossal power in the international system. The relevance of the book in the field of International Relations is provided particularly by the European approach to the topic of American relative power decline. The book starts by inquiring the arguments of the so-called Declinist school of American foreign policy, represented by established authors such as Barry R. Posen, Christopher Layne, Aaron Friedberg, Thomas Mandelbaum, etc. In particular, the book seeks to investigate whether the US is truly experiencing relative power decline as argued by the declinist authors mentioned above, among others; what empirical evidence is there to support the declinist arguments? What is the historical background of American declinism? What makes the late-2000s especially relevant empirically for the American decline theses? Which aspects of the current US grand strategy are particularly relevant for causing/supporting/hurrying the American relative power decline? What alternatives are there to address/correct them and at what strategic cost?
The main objective of the book is to critically revise and empirically test the Declinist school’s arguments as well as to assess whether the US is truly experiencing relative power decline. The research is a mixed-methodological undertaking grounded in neoclassical realism which emphasizes the fact that great power’s grand strategy and security strategies are influenced by the structural aspects of the international system and by the need to respond to its strategic imperatives. Relative power decline is especially relevant a period for a great power from the point of view of both how relative power decline is defined theoretically and operationalized empirically, as well as from the point of view of the management of relative power decline by a great power – addressing the debate over interests, strategies, measures, etc. and their respective effectiveness in preventing or averting relative power decline. The research methodology is a mix of quantitative and qualitative instruments, as well as mono-graphic cross-historical comparison of American national power attributes as well as a comparison of American national power attributes, as defined by Morgenthau and accepted by the IR establishments, with other state actors in the international system at this point and at other previous historical moments. The book concludes (a) that the US is not (yet) experiencing relative power decline; rather the declinists’ definition of relative power decline is too vague and its operationalization empirically leads to the confusion of the relative power decline with the deep institutional and political crisis that the US is experiencing indeed. The book also addressed the issue of American imperial overstretch as argued by the declinists in relation to the European allies and concludes that (b) there is no conclusive empirical evidence to support imperial overstretch from the point of view of the level of US defense budgeting, number of US forward military bases in Europe, US defense effort towards Europe, etc. By looking at the constraints on the US power and its exercise in the international system, the book concludes that most constraints originate from the domestic aspects of US policy-making and economic fields; and these constraints that are most relevant and conditional on American forward military presence in the system are not structural as argued by the declinists, but are in fact domestic fiscal and economic constraints whose immediate conditionality is relatively high, but not prohibitively so and long-term conditionality is rather likely to diminish after 2015 onward. Moreover, there are military administrative aspects – such as poor management of defense funds – that have acted as strong conditional constraints on the US defense budget and grand strategy more so than other strategic undertakings. (c) How the US chooses to confront and address these flaws in its Goliath’s armor is likely to have a huge impact on the international system as a whole – e.g. disengagement, isolationism, retrenchment, off-shore balancing, etc. The book looks at the alternative strategies currently under debate in the US in relative power decline management and underlines their impact and importance for European security.
The book consists of five chapters. The first chapter critically and in depth investigates the theoretical foundations of the declinist school of American foreign policy; the second chapter focuses on the history of American declinism and building on Josef Joffe’s waves of decline, retraces the arguments behind each of the five waves of American relative power decline starting from the late 1950s to present. The third chapter investigates in great detail the economic attributes of American power, central in many ways to the declinists’ arguments and policy recommendations. The fourth chapter focuses on an investigation of American military power resources, whereas the last chapter focuses on the impact of alternative strategies under debate in the US for relative power decline management on European security in general and European military security and global status in particular.
Last, but not least, the book addresses a wide range of target audiences, from the IR scholars, to IR students and practitioners, the representatives of security-related governmental or international institutions, diplomats, the representatives of international security NGOs and think tanks, as well as the general audience interested in US foreign policy and international politics more generally.
Book Chapters by simona soare
[Under the pressure of 90,000 tons of diplomacy? The United States of America, the hegemonic strategy and the relative power decline]
Simona R. Soare, Ph.D.
Bucharest: Military Publishing House, 2013, 308pg
The book entitled Sub povara a 90.000 de tone de diplomație? Statele Unite ale Americii, strategia hegemonică și declinul relativ de putere [Under the pressure of 90,000 tons of diplomacy? The United States of America, the hegemonic strategy and the relative power decline] written by dr. Simona R. Soare and published in December 2013 by the Romanian-based Military Publishing House focuses on a topic of international interest and relevance to both the theory and practice of contemporary International Relations – the relative power decline of great powers, as potentially exemplified by the United States nowadays. The book’s title is based on a game of words – 90,000 tons of diplomacy – used to promote the Nimitz aircraft carrier class, a standing symbol of the American preponderant, colossal power in the international system. The relevance of the book in the field of International Relations is provided particularly by the European approach to the topic of American relative power decline. The book starts by inquiring the arguments of the so-called Declinist school of American foreign policy, represented by established authors such as Barry R. Posen, Christopher Layne, Aaron Friedberg, Thomas Mandelbaum, etc. In particular, the book seeks to investigate whether the US is truly experiencing relative power decline as argued by the declinist authors mentioned above, among others; what empirical evidence is there to support the declinist arguments? What is the historical background of American declinism? What makes the late-2000s especially relevant empirically for the American decline theses? Which aspects of the current US grand strategy are particularly relevant for causing/supporting/hurrying the American relative power decline? What alternatives are there to address/correct them and at what strategic cost?
The main objective of the book is to critically revise and empirically test the Declinist school’s arguments as well as to assess whether the US is truly experiencing relative power decline. The research is a mixed-methodological undertaking grounded in neoclassical realism which emphasizes the fact that great power’s grand strategy and security strategies are influenced by the structural aspects of the international system and by the need to respond to its strategic imperatives. Relative power decline is especially relevant a period for a great power from the point of view of both how relative power decline is defined theoretically and operationalized empirically, as well as from the point of view of the management of relative power decline by a great power – addressing the debate over interests, strategies, measures, etc. and their respective effectiveness in preventing or averting relative power decline. The research methodology is a mix of quantitative and qualitative instruments, as well as mono-graphic cross-historical comparison of American national power attributes as well as a comparison of American national power attributes, as defined by Morgenthau and accepted by the IR establishments, with other state actors in the international system at this point and at other previous historical moments. The book concludes (a) that the US is not (yet) experiencing relative power decline; rather the declinists’ definition of relative power decline is too vague and its operationalization empirically leads to the confusion of the relative power decline with the deep institutional and political crisis that the US is experiencing indeed. The book also addressed the issue of American imperial overstretch as argued by the declinists in relation to the European allies and concludes that (b) there is no conclusive empirical evidence to support imperial overstretch from the point of view of the level of US defense budgeting, number of US forward military bases in Europe, US defense effort towards Europe, etc. By looking at the constraints on the US power and its exercise in the international system, the book concludes that most constraints originate from the domestic aspects of US policy-making and economic fields; and these constraints that are most relevant and conditional on American forward military presence in the system are not structural as argued by the declinists, but are in fact domestic fiscal and economic constraints whose immediate conditionality is relatively high, but not prohibitively so and long-term conditionality is rather likely to diminish after 2015 onward. Moreover, there are military administrative aspects – such as poor management of defense funds – that have acted as strong conditional constraints on the US defense budget and grand strategy more so than other strategic undertakings. (c) How the US chooses to confront and address these flaws in its Goliath’s armor is likely to have a huge impact on the international system as a whole – e.g. disengagement, isolationism, retrenchment, off-shore balancing, etc. The book looks at the alternative strategies currently under debate in the US in relative power decline management and underlines their impact and importance for European security.
The book consists of five chapters. The first chapter critically and in depth investigates the theoretical foundations of the declinist school of American foreign policy; the second chapter focuses on the history of American declinism and building on Josef Joffe’s waves of decline, retraces the arguments behind each of the five waves of American relative power decline starting from the late 1950s to present. The third chapter investigates in great detail the economic attributes of American power, central in many ways to the declinists’ arguments and policy recommendations. The fourth chapter focuses on an investigation of American military power resources, whereas the last chapter focuses on the impact of alternative strategies under debate in the US for relative power decline management on European security in general and European military security and global status in particular.
Last, but not least, the book addresses a wide range of target audiences, from the IR scholars, to IR students and practitioners, the representatives of security-related governmental or international institutions, diplomats, the representatives of international security NGOs and think tanks, as well as the general audience interested in US foreign policy and international politics more generally.