Papers by Giovanni Macedonio
Supplementary material for "Reconstructing tephra fall deposits via ensemblebased data assimilati... more Supplementary material for "Reconstructing tephra fall deposits via ensemblebased data assimilation techniques" by Mingari et al. (2022). Codes and datasets have been archived on Zenodo at
Scientific Reports
Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground ... more Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90–97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40–80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently—the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively ...
HAZMAP-2.4.4 is a code for the solution of the equation of diffusion, transport and sedimentation... more HAZMAP-2.4.4 is a code for the solution of the equation of diffusion, transport and sedimentation of small particles in order to model the dispersion of ash generated by a convective column. The model simplifies the advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation for volcanic ash transport in the atmosphere from three to two spatial dimensions and uses a semi-analytical approach that greatly reduces the required computer time and memory. The model needs the definition of the physical system (spatial distribution of the point sources, total erupted mass, settling velocity model, wind velocity profile, atmospheric turbulent diffusion coefficients) and of a computational grid. This code was first edited in 2007 and updated in 2016. HAZMAP-2.4.4 is developed and maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV).
This video shows a FALL3D-8.0 simulation of volcanic SO2 mass loading and has been initialised us... more This video shows a FALL3D-8.0 simulation of volcanic SO2 mass loading and has been initialised using data insertion of satellite retrievals. The simulation is for the 2019 Raikoke eruption (see Prata et al., 2020, for details).
The code DISGAS (model for passive DISpersion of GASes) is a Eulerian model for passive dispersio... more The code DISGAS (model for passive DISpersion of GASes) is a Eulerian model for passive dispersion of diluted gas and fine dust particles. Turbulent diffusion is based on the K-theory and the wind field can be evaluated assuming either a uniform wind profile based on the Similarity Theory or using a terrain-following mass-consistent wind model. DISGAS can be used to forecast concentration of gas (or dust) over complex terrains. The inputs to the model are topography, wind observations from meteorological stations, atmospheric stability information, and gas flow rate from a discrete number of point sources. DISGAS is written in fortran 90. Here we describe the model and an application example.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022
Modelling atmospheric dispersal of volcanic ash and aerosols is becoming increasingly valuable fo... more Modelling atmospheric dispersal of volcanic ash and aerosols is becoming increasingly valuable for assessing the potential impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on buildings, air quality, and aviation. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from quantitative forecasting of volcanic ash. However, an accurate prediction of volcanic aerosol concentrations using numerical modelling relies on proper estimations of multiple model parameters which are prone to errors. Uncertainties in key parameters such as eruption column height and physical properties of particles or meteorological fields represent a major source of error affecting the forecast quality. The availability of near-real-time geostationary satellite observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions provides the opportunity to improve forecasts in an operational context by incorporating observations into numerical models. Specifically, ensemble-based filters aim at converting a prior ensemble of system states into an analysis ensemble by assimilating a set of noisy observations. Previous studies dealing with volcanic ash transport have demonstrated that a significant improvement of forecast skill can be achieved by this approach. In this work, we present a new implementation of an ensemblebased data assimilation (DA) method coupling the FALL3D dispersal model and the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The FALL3D+PDAF system runs in parallel, supports online-coupled DA, and can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing (HPC) resources. Two numerical experiments are considered: (i) a twin experiment using an incomplete dataset of synthetic observations of volcanic ash and (ii) an experiment based on the 2019 Raikoke eruption using real observations of SO 2 mass loading. An ensemble-based Kalman filtering technique based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is used to assimilate satellite-retrieved data of column mass loading. We show that this procedure may lead to nonphysical solutions and, consequently, conclude that LETKF is not the best approach for the assimilation of volcanic aerosols. However, we find that a truncated state constructed from the LETKF solution approaches the real solution after a few assimilation cycles, yielding a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when compared to simulations without assimilation.
Earth-Science Reviews, 2020
Abstract In the last few decades, advanced monitoring networks have been extended to the main act... more Abstract In the last few decades, advanced monitoring networks have been extended to the main active volcanoes, providing warnings for variations in volcano dynamics. However, one of the main tasks of modern volcanology is the correct interpretation of surface-monitored signals in terms of magma transfer through the Earth's crust. In this frame, it is crucial to investigate decompression-induced magma degassing as it controls magma ascent towards the surface and, in case of eruption, the eruptive style and the atmospheric dispersal of tephra and gases. Understanding the degassing behaviour is particularly intriguing in the case of poorly explored evolved alkaline magmas. In fact, these melts frequently feed hazardous, highly explosive volcanoes (e.g., Campi Flegrei, Somma-Vesuvius, Colli Albani, Tambora, Azores and Canary Islands), despite their low viscosity that usually promotes effusive and/or weakly explosive eruptions. Decompression experiments, together with numerical models, are powerful tools to examine magma degassing behaviour and constrain field observations from natural eruptive products and monitoring signals. These approaches have been recently applied to evolved alkaline melts, yet numerous open questions remain. To cast new light on the degassing dynamics of evolved alkaline magmas, in this study we present new results from decompression experiments, as well as a critical review of previous experimental works. We achieved a comprehensive dataset of key petrological parameters (i.e., 3D textural data for bubbles and microlites using X-ray computed microtomography, glass volatile contents and nanolite occurrence) from experimental samples obtained through high temperature-high pressure isothermal decompression experiments on trachytic alkaline melts at super-liquidus temperature. We explored systematically a range of final pressures (from 200 to 25 MPa), decompression rates (from 0.01 to 1 MPa s−1), and volatile (H2O and CO2) contents. On these grounds, we integrated coherently literature data from decompression experiments on evolved alkaline (trachytic and phonolitic) melts under various conditions, with the aim to fully constrain the degassing mechanisms and timescales in these magmas. Finally, we simulated numerically the experimental conditions to evaluate strengths and weaknesses in decrypting degassing mechanisms and timescale from field observations. Our results highlight that bubble formation in evolved alkaline melts is primarily controlled by the initial volatile (H2O and CO2) content during magma storage. In these melts, bubble nucleation needs low supersaturation pressures (≤ 50–112 MPa for homogeneous nucleation, ≤ 13–25 MPa for heterogeneous nucleation), resulting in high bubble number density (~ 1012–1016 m−3), efficient volatile exsolution and thus in severe rheological changes. Moreover, the bubble number density is amplified in CO2-rich melts (mole fraction XCO2 ≥ 0.5), in which continuous bubble nucleation predominates on growth. These conditions typically lead to highly explosive eruptions. However, moving towards slower decompression rates (≤ 10−1 MPa s−1) and H2O-rich melts, permeable outgassing and inertial fragmentation occur, promoting weakly explosive eruptions. Finally, our findings suggest that the exhaustion of CO2 at deep levels, and the consequent transition to a H2O-dominated degassing, can crucially enhance magma vesiculation and ascent. In a hazard perspective, these constraints allow to postulate that time-depth variations of unrest signals could be significantly weaker/shorter (e.g., minor gas emissions and short-term seismicity) during major eruptions than in small-scale events.
<p>Jan Mayen Island (Norway), located in the North Atlantic, is considered the world&#8... more <p>Jan Mayen Island (Norway), located in the North Atlantic, is considered the world&#8217;s northernmost active subaerial volcano, with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. Explosive activity of the volcano may seriously affects the nearby important air traffic routes. However, no quantitative studies on the possible impact of a new explosive volcanic eruption on the air traffic have been conducted.&#160; In this work, we statistically characterise the spatial and temporal distribution of airborne volcanic ash cloud and its persistence at different flight levels. Since current operational forecast products do not always meet the requirements of the aviation sector and related stakeholders (using coarse time and space scales, with outputs on a 40 km horizontal resolution grid and 6 hour time averages), and they neglect epistemic/aleatory uncertainties in quantitative forecasts on real time, we propose hourly high resolution hazard maps over a 3D-grid covering a 2 km-resolution spatial domain 2000 km x 2000 km wide. We present the use of high-performance computing (HPC) to overcome the computational limitations associated with unbiased long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) .Considering a continuum of possible combinations of Eruptive Source Parameters (ESP) to assess and quantify the uncertainty, and the natural variability associated with wind fields over 20 years of data, from 1999 to 2019, we run thousands of analytical solutions (numerical simulations) using the most recent version of the FALL3D model. As a result, the first comprehensive long-term PVHA for Jan Mayen volcanic island is presented.</p>
Seismological Research Letters, 2020
This article presents findings from two episodes of seismicity and gas emission that occurred on ... more This article presents findings from two episodes of seismicity and gas emission that occurred on 7 October 2015 and 6 December 2019 in Campi Flegrei caldera. This caldera has been affected by long-term unrest since 2004. The 6 December 2019 episode, consisting of a swarm of 38 earthquakes (maximum duration magnitude 3.1, the largest between 1984 and March 2020), occurred at the end of a one month period characterized by an increase in the ground uplift rate from 0.19±0.01 to 0.72±0.05 mm/day. A sudden increase in the fumarolic tremor amplitude, which is a proxy of gas emission-related parameters recorded at Solfatara–Pisciarelli hydrothermal area (e.g., CO2 air concentration), was observed during the seismicity episode. The uplift rate decreased immediately after the swarm (0.10±0.01 mm/day), whereas the fumarolic tremor amplitude remained higher than that observed prior to the swarm. Through analyzing the time series of uplift recorded in Pozzuoli (central area of the caldera) fr...
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2016
Manuscript (revised) Click here to download Manuscript MemoVolc-text-FINAL-v3.docx Click here to ... more Manuscript (revised) Click here to download Manuscript MemoVolc-text-FINAL-v3.docx Click here to view linked References
Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 2016
RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters,... more RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each presentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given h...
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2016
In this study, using the tephra dispersal model HAZMAP, we investigate the effect of using differ... more In this study, using the tephra dispersal model HAZMAP, we investigate the effect of using different meteorological datasets and eruption source parameters on tephra fallout hazard assessment for a sub-Plinian eruption of Vesuvius, which is considered as a reference case for hazard assessment analysis. We analyze the effect of using different meteorological data, from: i) radio-sounding carried out at the meteorological station of Brindisi (Italy) between 1962 and 1976 and between 1996 and 2012, and at Pratica di Mare (Rome, Italy) between 1995 and 2013; ii) meteorological models of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, we consider the effects of perturbing reference eruptive source parameters. In particular, we vary the total mass, the total grain-size distribution, the column height, and the effective atmospheric diffusion coefficient to evaluate how these parameters affect the hazard probability maps. Moreover, the effect of the seasonal variation of the wind field and the effect of the rain on the deposit loading are considered. Results show that the parameter that mostly affects hazard maps is, as expected, the total erupted mass; furthermore, keeping constant the erupted mass, the most important control on hazard is due to the particle terminal settling velocity distribution which is a function of the total grain-size distribution, particle density and shape. Within the considered range variations, the hazard depends less on the use of different meteorological datasets, column height and effective diffusion coefficient.
Geoscientific Model Development, 2016
Eruption source parameters (ESP) characterizing volcanic eruption plumes are crucial inputs for a... more Eruption source parameters (ESP) characterizing volcanic eruption plumes are crucial inputs for atmospheric tephra dispersal models, used for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. We present FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1-D (one-dimensional) cross-section-averaged eruption column model based on the buoyant plume theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bending by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, a new parameterization for the air entrainment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash particles in the presence of liquid water or ice. In the occurrence of wet aggregation, the model predicts an effective grain size distribution depleted in fines with respect to that erupted at the vent. Given a wind profile, the model can be used to determine the column height from the eruption mass flow rate or vice versa. The ultimate goal is to improve ash cloud dispersal forecasts by better constraining the ESP (column height, eruption rate and vertical distribution of mass) and the effective particle grain size distribution resulting from eventual wet aggregation within the plume. As test cases we apply the model to the eruptive phase-B of the 4 April 1982 El Chichón volcano eruption (México) and the 6 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption phase (Iceland). The modular structure of the code facilitates the implementation in the future code versions of more quantitative ash aggregation parameterization as further observations and experiment data will be available for better constraining ash aggregation processes.
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Papers by Giovanni Macedonio