Journal of the Finnish Economic Association, Oct 5, 2023
Preparing for the monetary loss associated with premature death of the breadwinner has become mor... more Preparing for the monetary loss associated with premature death of the breadwinner has become more relevant during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, very little is known about how much of the financial vulnerabilities are covered by the life insurance holdings in different population groups. We employ unique individual-level life insurance data of the Finnish population to study the voluntary life insurances, the components of financial loss following from a death of a breadwinner, and the gap in death cover (life insurance gap) calculated as the difference of the two. We find that only about 10% of Finns have a voluntary term life insurance, and that they are concentrated on married people, people of working age and with higher income. The largest insurance gaps are among young individuals, men, high income and highly educated people. We also find that the observed insurance behavior is poorly explained by the net losses following from a death.
This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic proje... more This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic projections to describe uncertain future demographic trends and asset yields. While current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue to finance public expenditure with an ageing population, if developments are as expected, the problem will not be very large. However, there is a small, but not negligible, probability that taxes will need to be raised dramatically, perhaps by over 5 percentage points. Such outcomes, if realised, could destabilise the entire welfare state. The study also analyses three policy options aimed at improving sustainability. Longevity adjustment of pension benefits and introduction of an NDC pension system would reduce the expected problem and narrow the sustainability gap distribution. Under the third option, pension funds would invest more in equities and expect to get higher returns. This policy also limits the sustainability problem, but only under precondition that policymakers in the future can live with substantially larger variation in the value of the funds without adjusting tax rules or benefits.
Premiumpensionmyndighet (Autoridad de Pensiones Prima, oficina de compensación pública para el nu... more Premiumpensionmyndighet (Autoridad de Pensiones Prima, oficina de compensación pública para el nuevo esquema de CDF en Suecia) ATP allmänna tilläggspension (beneficios relacionados con los ingresos en Referencias bibliográficas
This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic proje... more This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic projections to describe uncertain future demographic trends and asset yields. While current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue to finance public expenditure with an ageing population, if developments are as expected, the problem will not be very large. However, there is a small, but not negligible, probability that taxes will need to be raised dramatically, perhaps by over 5 percentage points. Such outcomes, if realised, could destabilise the entire welfare state. The study also analyses three policy options aimed at improving sustainability. Longevity adjustment of pension benefits and introduction of an NDC pension system would reduce the expected problem and narrow the sustainability gap distribution. Under the third option, pension funds would invest more in equities and expect to get higher returns. This policy also limits the sustainability problem, but only under precondition that policymakers in the future can live with substantially larger variation in the value of the funds without adjusting tax rules or benefits.
The Nordic welfare states have managed to reform their pension systems in a way that supports bot... more The Nordic welfare states have managed to reform their pension systems in a way that supports both high employments rates and low old-age poverty. This ability to innovate and acquire acceptance for the new rules are the key elements behind the success of these systems. The role of social partners has been decisive in previous reforms, but the needs to increase employment rates and improve overall fiscal sustainability have introduced additional constraints for the reforms and have increased the influence of politicians. From the very beginning, the Finnish first-pillar earnings-related pension scheme has had several outstanding features, such as partial prefunding of the contributions, no ceilings for the pension accruals and preserving accruals when changing jobs. In recent years, the scheme has been at the front line of introducing links between pensions and retirement ages and life expectancy. However, the recent issue of the surprisingly low fertility has not yet been addressed.
This study simulates with two dynamic models the macroeconomic and public finance outcomes of a r... more This study simulates with two dynamic models the macroeconomic and public finance outcomes of a reduction in the corporate income tax rate in Finland. FOG-model is a dynamic CGE model, which is calibrated to the Finnish economy. NiGEM is a multi-country macroeconometric model. The results show that a surprising cut in the corporate income tax rate falls after all adjustments both on new investments and the yield of existing capital. The losses in the tax revenues are capitalized in the market value of the firms, of which many are partly foreign-owned. Investments increase, but the influence in production is mitigated by low reaction of labour supply. Wages increase as well as the public expenditure relates to wages. Gross profits do dot change much. The dynamic effects on tax bases compensate for 30–50 per cent of the losses in the corporate income tax revenues, depending on the model used. If also the increased public expenditure is considered, the compensation rate falls to 25–30 ...
Abstract Municipal employees and private-sector employees in Finland belong to separate earnings-... more Abstract Municipal employees and private-sector employees in Finland belong to separate earnings-related pension systems. Both systems are financed by contributions from the payroll, and are mostly pay-as-you-go. Thus if a municipality decides to buy services from the private sector, instead of producing them by own employees, the pension contributions will go to the private-sector pension system rather than the municipal pension system. This weakens the financial base of the municipal system and strengthens that of the private-sector system. Outsourcing, however, is not the only factor affecting the relative size of the two systems. Increasing demand for health and long-term care services, caused by population ageing and mostly financed by municipalities, may increase the number of municipal employees substantially during the next 20 years even if outsourcing becomes more widespread. We don’t foresee any pension financing problems caused by shifts between municipal and private-sector pension systems in the future. Still the systems should jointly decide how the risk related to future contribution bases is best divided. We also conclude that the current financing rules of the municipal pension system do not significantly affect outsourcing decisions.
Sidantal 191 Språk finska Nyckelord forskning, forskningsverksamhet, arbetspolitik, aktiv arbetsk... more Sidantal 191 Språk finska Nyckelord forskning, forskningsverksamhet, arbetspolitik, aktiv arbetskraftspolitik, arbetslöshetsskydd, beskattning, arbetsoförmåga Referat Denna rapport ger en översikt över utländsk och finländsk litteratur om arbetsmarknadspolitikens sysselsättningsskapande effekter och drar politiska slutsatser baserade på dessa forskningsrön. De områden inom politiken som behandlas är aktiv arbetskraftspolitik, arbetslöshetsunderstöd, förmånssystem i samband med arbetsoförmåga och partiell arbetsoförmåga samt beskattning av arbete. Beträffande aktiv arbetskraftspolitik, arbetslöshetsunderstöd och beskattning av arbete stödjer man sig på internationella metaanalyser och översikter som kompletteras med nyutkommen utländsk och finländsk forskning. När det gäller förmånssystem i samband med full och partiell arbetsoförmåga ligger huvudvikten på nordiska utvärderingsundersökningar. I översikten fästs speciell uppmärksamhet vid undersökningarnas kvalitet samt resultatens trovärdighet och tillämplighet på Finland. I förhållande till tidigare litteratur behandlas totalverkningar av åtgärder inom arbetspolitik ingående. Enligt översikten kan man med arbetspolitik inverka på sysselsättning, men verkningarna är begränsade. Vi framför detaljerade politiska slutsatser gällande behandlade områden samt allmänna konklusioner. Framgående horisontella teman är biverkningar av åtgärder, inbördes alternativ, inriktning, konjunkturberoende, utnyttjande av deltidslösningar, kostnadseffektivitet, mångsektorialitet. Den här publikation är en del i genomförandet av statsrådets utrednings-och forskningsplan. (tietokayttoon.fi) De som producerar informationen ansvarar för innehållet i publikationen. Textinnehållet återspeglar inte nödvändigtvis statsrådets ståndpunkt Förläggare Statsrådets kansli Beställningar/ distribution Elektronisk version: julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi Beställningar: vnjulkaisumyynti
Abstract Many elderly people in Finland could increase they standard of living and receive more f... more Abstract Many elderly people in Finland could increase they standard of living and receive more freedom of choice regarding long-term care by releasing part of their housing equity. The possibility to purchase reasonably priced life annuities and long-term care insurance would increase the benefits of housing equity release. However, there is virtually no market for such insurance in Finland. This report illustrates the benefits of life annuities and long-term care insurance, provides example of actuarially fair insurance pricing, and describes the conditions for this market to emerge. It argues that the government should support the emergence of an insurance market by clarifying the public welfare promise related to old age care and by promising not to seize private pension and long-term care insurance payouts e.g. via higher user fees for publicly provided long-term care.
Abstract Earnings-related unemployment benefits weaken markedly the economic incentives for searc... more Abstract Earnings-related unemployment benefits weaken markedly the economic incentives for searching and accepting a job. This study estimates that the current Finnish unemployment insurance scheme lowers the number of employed by tens of thousands of persons. The scheme may also weaken the incentives of the firms to create new vacancies and thereby hinder the employment of all unemployed individuals. Moreover, a significant share of the benefits is paid to persons whose lifetime earnings are relatively high. Consequently, limiting the duration of the maximum benefit period is warranted. A cutback of the earnings-related benefits increases the lifetime income disparities somewhat, but notably less than a cutback of basic unemployment allowances.
TIIVISTELMÄ: Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan väestöriskien ja rahastojen tuottoriskien vaikutuksia Suo... more TIIVISTELMÄ: Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan väestöriskien ja rahastojen tuottoriskien vaikutuksia Suomen yksityisen sektorin työeläkejärjestelmän kestävyyteen. Tulosten mukaan todennäköisyys sille, että nykyinen maksutaso riittäisi rahoittamaan eläkkeet, on pieni. Odotettavissa olevaa maksun nousua suurempi ongelma on kuitenkin se, että todennäköisyys hyvin korkeille maksuille on huomattavan suuri pitkällä aikavälillä. Lisääntynyt riskinotto osakemarkkinoilla vaimentaa odotusarvoisesti maksujen nousupainetta, mutta johtaa helposti tilanteisiin, joissa pitkään jatkuneet hyvät tai huonot tuotot tulkitaan pysyviksi ja siten syyksi muuttaa järjestelmän sääntöjä. Ruotsin työeläkejärjestelmän mukainen maksujen kiinnittäminen ja etuuksien sopeuttaminen indeksoinnin avulla tekisi järjestelmästä rahoituksellisesti kestävän ja vähentäisi yllättävien sääntömuutosten riskiä. Se kuitenkin siirtää väestö-ja talousriskien toteutumisen seurauksia pitkälle tulevaisuuteen eikä siten jaa niitä tasaisesti eri sukupolvien välillä. Parempia mekanismeja tulisi etsiä malleista, joissa maksujen suurten muutosten todennäköisyyttä on vähennetty kiinnittämättä maksuja kokonaan.
In this report, we analyze the Finnish R&D tax incentive scheme of the years 2013 and 2014. U... more In this report, we analyze the Finnish R&D tax incentive scheme of the years 2013 and 2014. Under the scheme, firms were eligible for double corporate tax deduction incentive on labor expenses incurred for undertaking R&D activities. Our report consists of a literature review, an empirical analysis of the Finnish register data, and an internet survey. We find that the scheme failed to reach its anticipated impact. The deduction was claimed far less than expected, the actual tax loss being only 8 % of the expected tax loss. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the R&D tax incentive failed to reach clear, blind spots in the current Finnish, mainly direct-subsidy-based innovation system. Although the scheme’s design does not allow an unambiguous analysis of its impact on the R&D expenditure, our tentative results suggests that its impact remained rather small. The previous, international literature shows that the R&D tax incentives have an increasing effect on the R&D expenditures, but the impact tends not to exceed the amount of the tax subsidy. Based on our results it is unlikely that even a better-designed R&D tax deduction scheme would bring great value-added to the current, Finnish innovation system.
TIIVISTELMÄ: Tarkastelemme missä määrin eläkkeellä olevat kotitaloudet voisivat täydentää lakisää... more TIIVISTELMÄ: Tarkastelemme missä määrin eläkkeellä olevat kotitaloudet voisivat täydentää lakisääteistä eläketurvaansa muuntamalla osan varallisuudestaan tulovirraksi. Vertaamme eläkeikäisten kotitalouksien varallisuutta niiden lakisääteisiin eläkkeisiin. Kuvaamme myös erilaisia rahoitustuotteita, joiden avulla kotitaloudet voivat muuntaa varallisuuttaan tulovirraksi ja niiden verotusta. Lisäksi tarkastelemme mallilaskelmien avulla, minkälaiset kuluttajat hyötyisivät eniten mahdollisuudesta muuttaa osa eläkeikään mennessä kertyneestä varallisuudesta elinikäiseksi eläkkeeksi kertamaksullisten eläkevakuutusten avulla.
Suomen väestö ikääntyy matalan syntyvyyden vuoksi odotettua nopeammin. Pieni lasten lukumäärä näy... more Suomen väestö ikääntyy matalan syntyvyyden vuoksi odotettua nopeammin. Pieni lasten lukumäärä näyttäytyy ensimmäisen parinkymmenen vuoden aikana kansantalouden ja julkisen talouden kannalta positiivisena, mutta se kumuloi samanaikaisesti tulevaa vajetta työvoimaan ja verotuloihin. Työvoima ja väestön määrä kääntyvät laskuun vuosisadan puolivälissä ilman merkittävää työperäisen maahanmuuton lisääntymistä. Hyvinvointivaltio ei ole varautunut väestörakenteen muutokseen ja sen aiheuttamaan talouskasvun hidastumiseen, jotka heikentävät mahdollisuuksia pitää yllä luvattuja julkisia palveluja ja haluttua tulonjakoa jatkossa. Tulevien sukupolvien asema heikkenee, jos veroasteen nousu ja velkaantuminen jatkuvat. Olemme tarkastelleet työurien pidentämistä alku-ja loppupäästä opintoaikaa lyhentämällä ja eläkeikää myöhentämällä ja eläkevarojen sijoituspolitiikan tehostamista. Näillä kaikilla toimilla voitaisiin vahvistaa julkistaa taloutta. Lisäksi tutkimme sukupolvien välisen tulonjaon tasaamista sitomalla eläkerahastointia syntyvyyteen. Klausuuli Tämä julkaisu on toteutettu osana valtioneuvoston selvitys-ja tutkimussuunnitelman toimeenpanoa. (tietokayttoon.fi) Julkaisun sisällöstä vastaavat tiedon tuottajat, eikä tekstisisältö välttämättä edusta valtioneuvoston näkemystä.
Journal of the Finnish Economic Association, Oct 5, 2023
Preparing for the monetary loss associated with premature death of the breadwinner has become mor... more Preparing for the monetary loss associated with premature death of the breadwinner has become more relevant during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, very little is known about how much of the financial vulnerabilities are covered by the life insurance holdings in different population groups. We employ unique individual-level life insurance data of the Finnish population to study the voluntary life insurances, the components of financial loss following from a death of a breadwinner, and the gap in death cover (life insurance gap) calculated as the difference of the two. We find that only about 10% of Finns have a voluntary term life insurance, and that they are concentrated on married people, people of working age and with higher income. The largest insurance gaps are among young individuals, men, high income and highly educated people. We also find that the observed insurance behavior is poorly explained by the net losses following from a death.
This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic proje... more This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic projections to describe uncertain future demographic trends and asset yields. While current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue to finance public expenditure with an ageing population, if developments are as expected, the problem will not be very large. However, there is a small, but not negligible, probability that taxes will need to be raised dramatically, perhaps by over 5 percentage points. Such outcomes, if realised, could destabilise the entire welfare state. The study also analyses three policy options aimed at improving sustainability. Longevity adjustment of pension benefits and introduction of an NDC pension system would reduce the expected problem and narrow the sustainability gap distribution. Under the third option, pension funds would invest more in equities and expect to get higher returns. This policy also limits the sustainability problem, but only under precondition that policymakers in the future can live with substantially larger variation in the value of the funds without adjusting tax rules or benefits.
Premiumpensionmyndighet (Autoridad de Pensiones Prima, oficina de compensación pública para el nu... more Premiumpensionmyndighet (Autoridad de Pensiones Prima, oficina de compensación pública para el nuevo esquema de CDF en Suecia) ATP allmänna tilläggspension (beneficios relacionados con los ingresos en Referencias bibliográficas
This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic proje... more This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic projections to describe uncertain future demographic trends and asset yields. While current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue to finance public expenditure with an ageing population, if developments are as expected, the problem will not be very large. However, there is a small, but not negligible, probability that taxes will need to be raised dramatically, perhaps by over 5 percentage points. Such outcomes, if realised, could destabilise the entire welfare state. The study also analyses three policy options aimed at improving sustainability. Longevity adjustment of pension benefits and introduction of an NDC pension system would reduce the expected problem and narrow the sustainability gap distribution. Under the third option, pension funds would invest more in equities and expect to get higher returns. This policy also limits the sustainability problem, but only under precondition that policymakers in the future can live with substantially larger variation in the value of the funds without adjusting tax rules or benefits.
The Nordic welfare states have managed to reform their pension systems in a way that supports bot... more The Nordic welfare states have managed to reform their pension systems in a way that supports both high employments rates and low old-age poverty. This ability to innovate and acquire acceptance for the new rules are the key elements behind the success of these systems. The role of social partners has been decisive in previous reforms, but the needs to increase employment rates and improve overall fiscal sustainability have introduced additional constraints for the reforms and have increased the influence of politicians. From the very beginning, the Finnish first-pillar earnings-related pension scheme has had several outstanding features, such as partial prefunding of the contributions, no ceilings for the pension accruals and preserving accruals when changing jobs. In recent years, the scheme has been at the front line of introducing links between pensions and retirement ages and life expectancy. However, the recent issue of the surprisingly low fertility has not yet been addressed.
This study simulates with two dynamic models the macroeconomic and public finance outcomes of a r... more This study simulates with two dynamic models the macroeconomic and public finance outcomes of a reduction in the corporate income tax rate in Finland. FOG-model is a dynamic CGE model, which is calibrated to the Finnish economy. NiGEM is a multi-country macroeconometric model. The results show that a surprising cut in the corporate income tax rate falls after all adjustments both on new investments and the yield of existing capital. The losses in the tax revenues are capitalized in the market value of the firms, of which many are partly foreign-owned. Investments increase, but the influence in production is mitigated by low reaction of labour supply. Wages increase as well as the public expenditure relates to wages. Gross profits do dot change much. The dynamic effects on tax bases compensate for 30–50 per cent of the losses in the corporate income tax revenues, depending on the model used. If also the increased public expenditure is considered, the compensation rate falls to 25–30 ...
Abstract Municipal employees and private-sector employees in Finland belong to separate earnings-... more Abstract Municipal employees and private-sector employees in Finland belong to separate earnings-related pension systems. Both systems are financed by contributions from the payroll, and are mostly pay-as-you-go. Thus if a municipality decides to buy services from the private sector, instead of producing them by own employees, the pension contributions will go to the private-sector pension system rather than the municipal pension system. This weakens the financial base of the municipal system and strengthens that of the private-sector system. Outsourcing, however, is not the only factor affecting the relative size of the two systems. Increasing demand for health and long-term care services, caused by population ageing and mostly financed by municipalities, may increase the number of municipal employees substantially during the next 20 years even if outsourcing becomes more widespread. We don’t foresee any pension financing problems caused by shifts between municipal and private-sector pension systems in the future. Still the systems should jointly decide how the risk related to future contribution bases is best divided. We also conclude that the current financing rules of the municipal pension system do not significantly affect outsourcing decisions.
Sidantal 191 Språk finska Nyckelord forskning, forskningsverksamhet, arbetspolitik, aktiv arbetsk... more Sidantal 191 Språk finska Nyckelord forskning, forskningsverksamhet, arbetspolitik, aktiv arbetskraftspolitik, arbetslöshetsskydd, beskattning, arbetsoförmåga Referat Denna rapport ger en översikt över utländsk och finländsk litteratur om arbetsmarknadspolitikens sysselsättningsskapande effekter och drar politiska slutsatser baserade på dessa forskningsrön. De områden inom politiken som behandlas är aktiv arbetskraftspolitik, arbetslöshetsunderstöd, förmånssystem i samband med arbetsoförmåga och partiell arbetsoförmåga samt beskattning av arbete. Beträffande aktiv arbetskraftspolitik, arbetslöshetsunderstöd och beskattning av arbete stödjer man sig på internationella metaanalyser och översikter som kompletteras med nyutkommen utländsk och finländsk forskning. När det gäller förmånssystem i samband med full och partiell arbetsoförmåga ligger huvudvikten på nordiska utvärderingsundersökningar. I översikten fästs speciell uppmärksamhet vid undersökningarnas kvalitet samt resultatens trovärdighet och tillämplighet på Finland. I förhållande till tidigare litteratur behandlas totalverkningar av åtgärder inom arbetspolitik ingående. Enligt översikten kan man med arbetspolitik inverka på sysselsättning, men verkningarna är begränsade. Vi framför detaljerade politiska slutsatser gällande behandlade områden samt allmänna konklusioner. Framgående horisontella teman är biverkningar av åtgärder, inbördes alternativ, inriktning, konjunkturberoende, utnyttjande av deltidslösningar, kostnadseffektivitet, mångsektorialitet. Den här publikation är en del i genomförandet av statsrådets utrednings-och forskningsplan. (tietokayttoon.fi) De som producerar informationen ansvarar för innehållet i publikationen. Textinnehållet återspeglar inte nödvändigtvis statsrådets ståndpunkt Förläggare Statsrådets kansli Beställningar/ distribution Elektronisk version: julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi Beställningar: vnjulkaisumyynti
Abstract Many elderly people in Finland could increase they standard of living and receive more f... more Abstract Many elderly people in Finland could increase they standard of living and receive more freedom of choice regarding long-term care by releasing part of their housing equity. The possibility to purchase reasonably priced life annuities and long-term care insurance would increase the benefits of housing equity release. However, there is virtually no market for such insurance in Finland. This report illustrates the benefits of life annuities and long-term care insurance, provides example of actuarially fair insurance pricing, and describes the conditions for this market to emerge. It argues that the government should support the emergence of an insurance market by clarifying the public welfare promise related to old age care and by promising not to seize private pension and long-term care insurance payouts e.g. via higher user fees for publicly provided long-term care.
Abstract Earnings-related unemployment benefits weaken markedly the economic incentives for searc... more Abstract Earnings-related unemployment benefits weaken markedly the economic incentives for searching and accepting a job. This study estimates that the current Finnish unemployment insurance scheme lowers the number of employed by tens of thousands of persons. The scheme may also weaken the incentives of the firms to create new vacancies and thereby hinder the employment of all unemployed individuals. Moreover, a significant share of the benefits is paid to persons whose lifetime earnings are relatively high. Consequently, limiting the duration of the maximum benefit period is warranted. A cutback of the earnings-related benefits increases the lifetime income disparities somewhat, but notably less than a cutback of basic unemployment allowances.
TIIVISTELMÄ: Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan väestöriskien ja rahastojen tuottoriskien vaikutuksia Suo... more TIIVISTELMÄ: Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan väestöriskien ja rahastojen tuottoriskien vaikutuksia Suomen yksityisen sektorin työeläkejärjestelmän kestävyyteen. Tulosten mukaan todennäköisyys sille, että nykyinen maksutaso riittäisi rahoittamaan eläkkeet, on pieni. Odotettavissa olevaa maksun nousua suurempi ongelma on kuitenkin se, että todennäköisyys hyvin korkeille maksuille on huomattavan suuri pitkällä aikavälillä. Lisääntynyt riskinotto osakemarkkinoilla vaimentaa odotusarvoisesti maksujen nousupainetta, mutta johtaa helposti tilanteisiin, joissa pitkään jatkuneet hyvät tai huonot tuotot tulkitaan pysyviksi ja siten syyksi muuttaa järjestelmän sääntöjä. Ruotsin työeläkejärjestelmän mukainen maksujen kiinnittäminen ja etuuksien sopeuttaminen indeksoinnin avulla tekisi järjestelmästä rahoituksellisesti kestävän ja vähentäisi yllättävien sääntömuutosten riskiä. Se kuitenkin siirtää väestö-ja talousriskien toteutumisen seurauksia pitkälle tulevaisuuteen eikä siten jaa niitä tasaisesti eri sukupolvien välillä. Parempia mekanismeja tulisi etsiä malleista, joissa maksujen suurten muutosten todennäköisyyttä on vähennetty kiinnittämättä maksuja kokonaan.
In this report, we analyze the Finnish R&D tax incentive scheme of the years 2013 and 2014. U... more In this report, we analyze the Finnish R&D tax incentive scheme of the years 2013 and 2014. Under the scheme, firms were eligible for double corporate tax deduction incentive on labor expenses incurred for undertaking R&D activities. Our report consists of a literature review, an empirical analysis of the Finnish register data, and an internet survey. We find that the scheme failed to reach its anticipated impact. The deduction was claimed far less than expected, the actual tax loss being only 8 % of the expected tax loss. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the R&D tax incentive failed to reach clear, blind spots in the current Finnish, mainly direct-subsidy-based innovation system. Although the scheme’s design does not allow an unambiguous analysis of its impact on the R&D expenditure, our tentative results suggests that its impact remained rather small. The previous, international literature shows that the R&D tax incentives have an increasing effect on the R&D expenditures, but the impact tends not to exceed the amount of the tax subsidy. Based on our results it is unlikely that even a better-designed R&D tax deduction scheme would bring great value-added to the current, Finnish innovation system.
TIIVISTELMÄ: Tarkastelemme missä määrin eläkkeellä olevat kotitaloudet voisivat täydentää lakisää... more TIIVISTELMÄ: Tarkastelemme missä määrin eläkkeellä olevat kotitaloudet voisivat täydentää lakisääteistä eläketurvaansa muuntamalla osan varallisuudestaan tulovirraksi. Vertaamme eläkeikäisten kotitalouksien varallisuutta niiden lakisääteisiin eläkkeisiin. Kuvaamme myös erilaisia rahoitustuotteita, joiden avulla kotitaloudet voivat muuntaa varallisuuttaan tulovirraksi ja niiden verotusta. Lisäksi tarkastelemme mallilaskelmien avulla, minkälaiset kuluttajat hyötyisivät eniten mahdollisuudesta muuttaa osa eläkeikään mennessä kertyneestä varallisuudesta elinikäiseksi eläkkeeksi kertamaksullisten eläkevakuutusten avulla.
Suomen väestö ikääntyy matalan syntyvyyden vuoksi odotettua nopeammin. Pieni lasten lukumäärä näy... more Suomen väestö ikääntyy matalan syntyvyyden vuoksi odotettua nopeammin. Pieni lasten lukumäärä näyttäytyy ensimmäisen parinkymmenen vuoden aikana kansantalouden ja julkisen talouden kannalta positiivisena, mutta se kumuloi samanaikaisesti tulevaa vajetta työvoimaan ja verotuloihin. Työvoima ja väestön määrä kääntyvät laskuun vuosisadan puolivälissä ilman merkittävää työperäisen maahanmuuton lisääntymistä. Hyvinvointivaltio ei ole varautunut väestörakenteen muutokseen ja sen aiheuttamaan talouskasvun hidastumiseen, jotka heikentävät mahdollisuuksia pitää yllä luvattuja julkisia palveluja ja haluttua tulonjakoa jatkossa. Tulevien sukupolvien asema heikkenee, jos veroasteen nousu ja velkaantuminen jatkuvat. Olemme tarkastelleet työurien pidentämistä alku-ja loppupäästä opintoaikaa lyhentämällä ja eläkeikää myöhentämällä ja eläkevarojen sijoituspolitiikan tehostamista. Näillä kaikilla toimilla voitaisiin vahvistaa julkistaa taloutta. Lisäksi tutkimme sukupolvien välisen tulonjaon tasaamista sitomalla eläkerahastointia syntyvyyteen. Klausuuli Tämä julkaisu on toteutettu osana valtioneuvoston selvitys-ja tutkimussuunnitelman toimeenpanoa. (tietokayttoon.fi) Julkaisun sisällöstä vastaavat tiedon tuottajat, eikä tekstisisältö välttämättä edusta valtioneuvoston näkemystä.
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