Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditure-GDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we... more Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditure-GDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we examine three central issues in public nance. First, was the path of public debt sustainable during this period? Second, if debt is sustainable, how has the government historically balanced the budget after shocks to either revenues or expenditures? Third, are expenditures exogenous? The results show that (i) public de¯cit is stationary (bounded asymptotic variance), with the budget in Brazil being balanced almost entirely through changes in taxes, regardless of the cause of the initial imbalance. Expenditures are weakly exogenous, but tax revenues are not; (ii) the behavior of a rational Brazilian consumer may be consistent with Ricardian Equivalence; (iii) seigniorage revenues are critical to restore intertemporal budget equilibrium, since, when we exclude them from total revenues, debt is not sustainable in econometric tests.
International Journal of Radiation Oncology Biology Physics, 2006
Purpose: Recent research has enhanced our understanding of radiation injury at the molecular-cell... more Purpose: Recent research has enhanced our understanding of radiation injury at the molecular-cellular and tissue levels; significant strides have occurred in standardization of adverse event reporting in clinical trials. In response, the International Atomic Energy Agency, through its Division of Human Health and its section for Applied Radiation Biology and Radiotherapy, organized a consultation meeting in Atlanta (October 2, 2004) to discuss developments in radiobiology, normal tissue reactions, and adverse event reporting.Methods and Materials: Representatives from cooperative groups of African Radiation Oncology Group, Curriculo Radioterapeutica Ibero Latino Americana, European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer, National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group, Radiation Therapy Oncology Group, and Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group held the meeting discussion.Results: Representatives of major radiotherapy groups/organizations and prominent leaders in radiotherapy discussed current understanding of normal tissue radiobiologic effects, the design and implementation of future clinical and translational projects for normal tissue injury, and the standardization of adverse-event reporting worldwide.Conclusions: The consensus was to adopt NCI comprehensive adverse event reporting terminology and grading system (CTCAE v3.0) as the new standard for all cooperative group trials. Future plans included the implementation of coordinated research projects focusing on normal tissue biomarkers and data collection methods.
Purpose To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with overall survival in patients with brai... more Purpose To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with overall survival in patients with brain metastasis treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) and estimate the potential improvement in survival for patients with brain metastases, stratified by the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class. Patients and methods From January 1996 to December 2000, 270 medical records of patients with diagnosis of brain metastasis, who received WBRT in the Hospital do Cancer Sao Paulo A.C. Camargo in the period, were analyzed. The surgery followed by WBRT was used in 15% of patients and 85 % of others patients were submitted at WBRT alone; in this cohort 134 patients (50%) received the fractionation schedule of 30 Gy in 10 fractions. The most common primary tumor type was breast (33%) followed by lung (29%), and solitary brain metastasis was present in 38.1% of patients. The prognostic factors evaluated for overall survival were: gender, age, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), number of lesions, localization of lesions, primary tumor site, surgery, chemotherapy, absence extracranial disease, RPA class and radiation doses and fractionation. Results The OS in 1, 2 and 3 years was 25, 1%, 10, 4% e 4, 3% respectively, and the median survival time was 4.6 months. The median survival time in months according to RPA class after WBRT was: 6.2 class I, 4.2 class II and 3.0 class III (p Conclusion In this series, the patients with higher perform status, RPA class I, and treated with surgery followed by whole brain radiotherapy had better survival. This data suggest that patients with cancer and a single metastasis to the brain may be treated effectively with surgical resection plus radiotherapy. The different radiotherapy doses and fractionation schedules did not altered survival.
International Journal of Radiation Oncology Biology Physics, 2005
This retrospective analysis reports the results on patients with anal canal carcinoma treated by ... more This retrospective analysis reports the results on patients with anal canal carcinoma treated by combined radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Between March 1993 and December 2001, 43 patients with anal canal carcinoma were treated with radiochemotherapy at the Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo. Stage distribution was as follows: I, 3 (7%); II, 23 (53.5%); IIIA, 8 (18.6%); and IIIB, 9 (21%). The median age was 56 years (range, 36-77 years) with most patients being women (4:1). External radiotherapy (RT) was delivered at the whole pelvis followed by a boost at the primary tumor. The median dose of RT at the whole pelvis and at the primary tumor was 45 Gy and 55 Gy, respectively. Chemotherapy was carried out during the first and last 4 days of RT with continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil (1000 mg/m(2)) and bolus mitomycin C (10 mg/m(2)). Median overall treatment time was 51 days (range, 30-129 days). Thirty-four patients (79%) did not receive elective RT at the inguinal region. Patient's age, tumor stage, overall treatment time, and RT dose at primary tumor were variables analyzed for survival and local control. Median follow-up time was 42 months (range, 4-116 months). Overall survival and colostomy-free survival at 5 years was 68% and 52%, respectively. Overall survival according to clinical stage was as follows: I, 100%; II, 82%; IIIA, 73%; and IIIB, 18% (p = 0.0049). Complete response was observed in 40 patients (93%). Local recurrence occurred in 9 (21%) patients, and of these, 6 were rescued by surgery. Local control with a preserved sphincter was observed in 34 patients (79%). According to the RT dose, local control was higher among patients who received more than 50 Gy at primary tumor (86.5% vs. 34%, p = 0.012). Inguinal failure was observed in 5 patients (15%) who did not receive inguinal elective RT. Distant metastasis was observed in 11 patients (25.6%). Temporary interruption of the treatment as a result of acute toxicity was necessary in 12 patients (28%). Four patients developed mild chronic complications. This analysis suggests that the treatment scheme employed was effective for anal sphincter preservation and local control; however, the incidence of distant metastases was relatively high. The clinical stage was the main prognostic factor for overall survival. Local control was higher in patients treated with doses of more than 50 Gy at primary tumor. The high incidence of inguinal failure implies the need for elective RT in this region.
Management of irradiated patients with cancer in the head and neck region represents a challenge ... more Management of irradiated patients with cancer in the head and neck region represents a challenge for multidisciplinary teams. Radiotherapy promotes cellular and vascular decrease that results in a low response rate in the healing. Consequently, surgical procedures in irradiated tissues present high rates of complication. Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) is the most severe sequelae caused by radiotherapy. It is associated with previous extractions especially those carried out post-irradiation. The management of this side effect is difficult and can result in bone or soft tissue loss, affecting the quality of life.The literature regarding dental extractions performed before and after head and neck radiotherapy was evaluated, focusing on indications, criteria, surgical techniques and adjunctive therapies such as antibiotics and hyperbaric oxygen.Osteoradionecrosis can be minimized by oral evaluation and care prior to irradiation and healing time which allows tissue repair until the commencement of radiotherapy. In dental extractions realized after irradiation, minimal trauma, alveolectomy, primary alveolar closure and adjunctive therapies are recommended.Patients must be evaluated before radiation therapy and at that time all unrestorable teeth and/or teeth with periodontal problems must be extracted to reduce the post-radiotherapy exodontias that contribute to ORN. Once dental extractions become unavoidable after irradiation, additional care is needed.
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic t... more In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination
Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditure-GDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we... more Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditure-GDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we examine three central issues in public nance. First, was the path of public debt sustainable during this period? Second, if debt is sustainable, how has the government historically balanced the budget after shocks to either revenues or expenditures? Third, are expenditures exogenous? The results show that (i) public de¯cit is stationary (bounded asymptotic variance), with the budget in Brazil being balanced almost entirely through changes in taxes, regardless of the cause of the initial imbalance. Expenditures are weakly exogenous, but tax revenues are not; (ii) the behavior of a rational Brazilian consumer may be consistent with Ricardian Equivalence; (iii) seigniorage revenues are critical to restore intertemporal budget equilibrium, since, when we exclude them from total revenues, debt is not sustainable in econometric tests.
International Journal of Radiation Oncology Biology Physics, 2006
Purpose: Recent research has enhanced our understanding of radiation injury at the molecular-cell... more Purpose: Recent research has enhanced our understanding of radiation injury at the molecular-cellular and tissue levels; significant strides have occurred in standardization of adverse event reporting in clinical trials. In response, the International Atomic Energy Agency, through its Division of Human Health and its section for Applied Radiation Biology and Radiotherapy, organized a consultation meeting in Atlanta (October 2, 2004) to discuss developments in radiobiology, normal tissue reactions, and adverse event reporting.Methods and Materials: Representatives from cooperative groups of African Radiation Oncology Group, Curriculo Radioterapeutica Ibero Latino Americana, European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer, National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group, Radiation Therapy Oncology Group, and Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group held the meeting discussion.Results: Representatives of major radiotherapy groups/organizations and prominent leaders in radiotherapy discussed current understanding of normal tissue radiobiologic effects, the design and implementation of future clinical and translational projects for normal tissue injury, and the standardization of adverse-event reporting worldwide.Conclusions: The consensus was to adopt NCI comprehensive adverse event reporting terminology and grading system (CTCAE v3.0) as the new standard for all cooperative group trials. Future plans included the implementation of coordinated research projects focusing on normal tissue biomarkers and data collection methods.
Purpose To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with overall survival in patients with brai... more Purpose To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with overall survival in patients with brain metastasis treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) and estimate the potential improvement in survival for patients with brain metastases, stratified by the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class. Patients and methods From January 1996 to December 2000, 270 medical records of patients with diagnosis of brain metastasis, who received WBRT in the Hospital do Cancer Sao Paulo A.C. Camargo in the period, were analyzed. The surgery followed by WBRT was used in 15% of patients and 85 % of others patients were submitted at WBRT alone; in this cohort 134 patients (50%) received the fractionation schedule of 30 Gy in 10 fractions. The most common primary tumor type was breast (33%) followed by lung (29%), and solitary brain metastasis was present in 38.1% of patients. The prognostic factors evaluated for overall survival were: gender, age, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), number of lesions, localization of lesions, primary tumor site, surgery, chemotherapy, absence extracranial disease, RPA class and radiation doses and fractionation. Results The OS in 1, 2 and 3 years was 25, 1%, 10, 4% e 4, 3% respectively, and the median survival time was 4.6 months. The median survival time in months according to RPA class after WBRT was: 6.2 class I, 4.2 class II and 3.0 class III (p Conclusion In this series, the patients with higher perform status, RPA class I, and treated with surgery followed by whole brain radiotherapy had better survival. This data suggest that patients with cancer and a single metastasis to the brain may be treated effectively with surgical resection plus radiotherapy. The different radiotherapy doses and fractionation schedules did not altered survival.
International Journal of Radiation Oncology Biology Physics, 2005
This retrospective analysis reports the results on patients with anal canal carcinoma treated by ... more This retrospective analysis reports the results on patients with anal canal carcinoma treated by combined radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Between March 1993 and December 2001, 43 patients with anal canal carcinoma were treated with radiochemotherapy at the Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo. Stage distribution was as follows: I, 3 (7%); II, 23 (53.5%); IIIA, 8 (18.6%); and IIIB, 9 (21%). The median age was 56 years (range, 36-77 years) with most patients being women (4:1). External radiotherapy (RT) was delivered at the whole pelvis followed by a boost at the primary tumor. The median dose of RT at the whole pelvis and at the primary tumor was 45 Gy and 55 Gy, respectively. Chemotherapy was carried out during the first and last 4 days of RT with continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil (1000 mg/m(2)) and bolus mitomycin C (10 mg/m(2)). Median overall treatment time was 51 days (range, 30-129 days). Thirty-four patients (79%) did not receive elective RT at the inguinal region. Patient's age, tumor stage, overall treatment time, and RT dose at primary tumor were variables analyzed for survival and local control. Median follow-up time was 42 months (range, 4-116 months). Overall survival and colostomy-free survival at 5 years was 68% and 52%, respectively. Overall survival according to clinical stage was as follows: I, 100%; II, 82%; IIIA, 73%; and IIIB, 18% (p = 0.0049). Complete response was observed in 40 patients (93%). Local recurrence occurred in 9 (21%) patients, and of these, 6 were rescued by surgery. Local control with a preserved sphincter was observed in 34 patients (79%). According to the RT dose, local control was higher among patients who received more than 50 Gy at primary tumor (86.5% vs. 34%, p = 0.012). Inguinal failure was observed in 5 patients (15%) who did not receive inguinal elective RT. Distant metastasis was observed in 11 patients (25.6%). Temporary interruption of the treatment as a result of acute toxicity was necessary in 12 patients (28%). Four patients developed mild chronic complications. This analysis suggests that the treatment scheme employed was effective for anal sphincter preservation and local control; however, the incidence of distant metastases was relatively high. The clinical stage was the main prognostic factor for overall survival. Local control was higher in patients treated with doses of more than 50 Gy at primary tumor. The high incidence of inguinal failure implies the need for elective RT in this region.
Management of irradiated patients with cancer in the head and neck region represents a challenge ... more Management of irradiated patients with cancer in the head and neck region represents a challenge for multidisciplinary teams. Radiotherapy promotes cellular and vascular decrease that results in a low response rate in the healing. Consequently, surgical procedures in irradiated tissues present high rates of complication. Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) is the most severe sequelae caused by radiotherapy. It is associated with previous extractions especially those carried out post-irradiation. The management of this side effect is difficult and can result in bone or soft tissue loss, affecting the quality of life.The literature regarding dental extractions performed before and after head and neck radiotherapy was evaluated, focusing on indications, criteria, surgical techniques and adjunctive therapies such as antibiotics and hyperbaric oxygen.Osteoradionecrosis can be minimized by oral evaluation and care prior to irradiation and healing time which allows tissue repair until the commencement of radiotherapy. In dental extractions realized after irradiation, minimal trauma, alveolectomy, primary alveolar closure and adjunctive therapies are recommended.Patients must be evaluated before radiation therapy and at that time all unrestorable teeth and/or teeth with periodontal problems must be extracted to reduce the post-radiotherapy exodontias that contribute to ORN. Once dental extractions become unavoidable after irradiation, additional care is needed.
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic t... more In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination
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