Papers by Wilfried Mirschel
Global and climate changes influence the basic conditions for agriculture and so there is not onl... more Global and climate changes influence the basic conditions for agriculture and so there is not only a demand for a consequent climate protection but also for an adaptation of agriculture to these global changing conditions. For the whole "Maerkisch-Oderland" district (60x40 km) within the moraine landscape of North-East-Germany mainly used for agriculture water balance, nitrogen and sulphur loads as well as crop yields are calculated for two land use and climate scenarios. The comparison between the Scenario2050 and the Scenario2000 reveals significant changes of the water balance (decrease in percolation water, increase in actual evapotranspiration) as well as the concentration of the examined nitrogen in the percolation water. For the study region the crop yields decrease only slightly if the CO2 fertilizing effect is taken into account. Adaptation measures in reaction to the changing climate conditions for an economically secured and sustainable agriculture are recommended.
Innovations in Landscape Research, 2021
Most vegetated land on earth has been used for agriculture for hundreds of years, shaping the lan... more Most vegetated land on earth has been used for agriculture for hundreds of years, shaping the land's features and functions. Agricultural (rural) landscapes are the basis for feeding the global population and meeting their many other demands. In the globalised world of the twenty-first century, agriculture is facing some crucial challenges: feeding more people whilst maintaining natural resources, biodiversity and landscape heritage, and mitigating climate Abdulla Saparov died of COVID-19 in 2020. The team of editors and authors mourns the loss of a highly esteemed scientist and will preserve his scientific legacy.
Fur den Freistaat Thuringen (16,172 km2) wurden raumlich hochaufgeloste Simulationen mit dem dyna... more Fur den Freistaat Thuringen (16,172 km2) wurden raumlich hochaufgeloste Simulationen mit dem dynamische Agrarokosystemmodell MONICA unter Verwendung von Wetterdaten mit hoher, mittlerer und niedriger Informationsdichte mit durchschnittlich auf Kreisebene gemessenen Winterweizenertragen aus den Jahren 1992 – 2010 (6.7 t ha) verglichen. Unter Verwendung von Daten einer einzelnen Wetterstation wurde ein mittlerer Ertrag von 7.0 t ha simuliert, bei mittlerer Informationsdichte wurde jedoch ein augenscheinlich besseres Ergebnis (6.6 t ha) erzielt. Diese Ergebnisse kamen jedoch zustande, weil eine teilweise schlechte raumliche Zuordnung der Wetterinformation durch ein generelles Uberschatzen der Praxisertrage durch MONICA aufgehoben wurde. Die Eliminierung des Zuordnungsfehlers bei hoher Informationsdichte erbrachte 7.4 t ha und wurde insgesamt als beste Simulation beurteilt. Aufgrund dieser Einschatzung wird die notwendige Bias-Korrektur des an Experimentaldaten kalibrierten Modells zur ...
Water, 2019
Soil hydrological conditions influence crop growth and groundwater recharge and, thus, precise kn... more Soil hydrological conditions influence crop growth and groundwater recharge and, thus, precise knowledge of such conditions at field scale is important for the investigation of agricultural systems. In our study, we analyzed soil hydrological conditions at three agricultural experimental field plots with sandy soils and different crop rotations using a 22-year period from 1993 to 2014 with daily volumetric soil water contents measured by the Time Domain Reflectometry with Intelligent MicroElements (TRIME)-method and pressure heads determined by automatic recording tensiometers. These measured data were compared with soil water contents and pressure heads simulated by a process-based agroecosystem model. Within this 22-year period, time spans with a better model performance and periods with a lower goodness of fit between simulations and observations were observed. The lower goodness of fit in the summer periods was attributed to inadequate calculations of root water uptake. Measurem...
Sel'skokhozyaistvennaya Biologiya, 2017
Mechanistic (eco-physiological), or process-oriented, approach to simulation modeling of the prod... more Mechanistic (eco-physiological), or process-oriented, approach to simulation modeling of the production process of plants assumes considering the essences of processes and cause-effect relationships in the agroecosystem with a description of their dynamics based on physically interpreted dependencies (as opposed to logically interpreted dependencies at the empirical approach) (A. Di Paola et al., 2016; R.A. Poluektov, 2010). The analysis of the possible use of dynamic simulation models of agro-ecosystems in the mechanistic nature of applied and theoretical research of agricultural biology is presented. The current practice of the development and usage of these models shows their highest suitability for research purposes in comparison to the potential usefulness and relevance to the practical problems of agronomy. Specific examples of model applications demonstrate the possibility of computer-based model experiments to get nontrivial results, which are not directly incorporated into the logic of the model algorithms (V. Badenko et al., 2014; S. Medvedev et al., 2015). The role of simulation model as a tool of obtaining new knowledge and interpretation of the empirically observed phenomena has been showed. To demonstrate the potentials of simulation models for agricultural biology, some results of authors' studies have been reviewed, including analyze of the appearance of a non-monotonic response function of crop yield on the doses of nitrogen fertilizer, the results of computer experiments on interpretation of the effect of the time delay during management of nitrogen feeding «on the leaf», and the joint impact of combined water and nitrogen stresses. Based on analysis of recent publications, conclusions of perspectives of models application to accelerate the plant breeding process were justified. It is concluded, i) further «biologization» of existing models is a prerequisite for a successful development of the dynamic crop growth modeling, and ii) it is necessary to increase the level of scientific validity of model approaches, which are used to describe the biotic processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system.
GIL Jahrestagung, 2004
Eine statistisch ermittelte Naturalertragsmatrix bildet für Ackerkulturen und zwei Grünlandnutzun... more Eine statistisch ermittelte Naturalertragsmatrix bildet für Ackerkulturen und zwei Grünlandnutzungen die Grundlage für die Abschätzung eines Basisertrages. Dieser wird in Abhängigkeit von weiteren Standortmerkmalen und jahresspezifischen Wettergrößen sowie unter Berücksichtigung des zu erwartenden Züchtungsfortschritts korrigiert. Um regionale Unterschiede beim Niveau des Agromanagements zu berücksichtigen, werden die Ertragsschätzungen mit Fuzzy-Ansätzen kombiniert. Die Abschätzung des Bedeckungsgrades für eine Region wird mit Hilfe von temperatursummenabhängigen Stützstellenfunktionen realisiert. Die regionale Abschätzung von Naturalertrag und Bedeckungsgrad wird mit Hilfe des Spatial Analysis and Modeling Tools (SAMT) umgesetzt. Dabei werden die Ergebnisse am Beispiel des Quillow-Einzugsgebietes (Uckermark) präsentiert.
GI-Jahrestagung, 2005
Die Festlegung realistischer teilflächenbezogener Ertragsziele nimmt innerhalb der informationsge... more Die Festlegung realistischer teilflächenbezogener Ertragsziele nimmt innerhalb der informationsgeleiteten Pflanzenproduktion eine Schlüsselstellung ein, da hiervon das gesamte Produktionsverfahren abhängig ist. Ausgehend von einer vergleichenden Analyse und Bewertung potenziell möglicher Verfahren wird im Rahmen des Verbundprojekts Preagro II unter Nutzung des Spatial Analysis and Modeling Tool (SAMT) ein neues rechnergestütztes, räumlich explizit anwendbares und szenariotaugliches Fuzzy-E xpertensystem entwickelt, das den Landwirt bei der Planung der konkreten teilflächenspezifischen Ertragsziele bzw. Ertragserwartungswerte und der Erstellung von Ertragserwartungskarten unterstützt. Konzept und Vorgehensweise bei der Erstellung des Fuzzy-Expertensystems zur Generierung von Ertragserwartungskarten werden vorgestellt
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2009
ABSTRACT This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.
Ecological Indicators, 2015
Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well i... more Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government. The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO 2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials. In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socioeconomic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification.
Modelling water and nutrient dynamics in soil–crop systems, 2007
... 1989) or AGROSIM-WINTERWHEAT (Schultz and Mirschel 1995). Other models like OPUS (Smith 1992a... more ... 1989) or AGROSIM-WINTERWHEAT (Schultz and Mirschel 1995). Other models like OPUS (Smith 1992a, 1995) and WOFOST (Supit et al. ... phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) in the root zone, as well as oxygen shortage caused by stagnant water in the root zone (Supit et al. ...
Sustainable Agriculture Volume 2, 2011
The development and survival or disappearance of civilizations has been based on the performance ... more The development and survival or disappearance of civilizations has been based on the performance of soils to provide food, fibre, and further essential goods for humans. Amongst soil functions, the capacity to produce plant biomass (productivity function) remains essential. This function is closely associated with the main global issues of the 21st century like food security, demands of energy and
The aim of this paper is to discuss scientific cha llenges and new possibilities for a better mod... more The aim of this paper is to discuss scientific cha llenges and new possibilities for a better modelling of consequences of land use changes in he terogeneous landscapes on ecosystem functions in sp ace and time. The landscape or regional scale means an area of about 100 km 2 up to some 1000 km 2. Main problems on this scale are high complexity, structu ral diversity, ecological heterogeneity and uncerta inty in data, in understanding of the process dynamic and b y uncertainty in models.
Journal of Environmental Management, 2013
Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regio... more Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decisionmaking in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km 2) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km 2) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions.
Field Crops Research, 2013
ABSTRACT The success of using agro-ecosystem models for the high-resolution simulation of agricul... more ABSTRACT The success of using agro-ecosystem models for the high-resolution simulation of agricultural yields for larger areas is often hampered by a lack of input data. We investigated the effect of different spatially resolved soil and weather data used as input for the MONICA model on its ability to reproduce winter wheat yields in the Federal State of Thuringia, Germany (16,172 km²). The combination of one representative soil and one weather station was insufficient to reproduce the observed mean yield of 6.66 ± 0.87 t ha–1 for the federal state. Use of a 100 × 100 m grid of soil and relief information combined with just one representative weather station yielded a good estimator (7.01±1.47 t ha–1). The soil and relief data grid used in combination with weather information from 14 weather stations in a nearest neighbour approach produced even better results (6.60±1.37 t ha–1); the same grid used with 39 additional rain gauges and an interpolation algorithm that included an altitude correction of temperature data slightly overpredicted the observed mean (7.36±1.17 t ha–1). It was concluded that the apparent success of the first two high-resolution approaches over the latter was based on two effects that cancelled each other out: the calibration of MONICA to match high-yield experimental data and the growth-defining and -limiting effect of weather data that is not representative for large parts of the region. At the county and farm level the MONICA model failed to reproduce the 1992–2010 time series of yields, which is partly explained by the fact that many growth-reducing factors were not considered in the model.
European Journal of Agronomy, 2014
ABSTRACT Adaptation of agriculture to climate change will be driven at the farm level in first pl... more ABSTRACT Adaptation of agriculture to climate change will be driven at the farm level in first place. The MONICA model was employed in four different modelling exercises for demonstration and testing different management options for farmers in Germany to adjust their production system. 30-Year simulations were run for the periods 1996–2025 and 2056–2085 using future climate data generated by a statistical method on the basis of measured data from 1961 to 2000 and the A1B scenario of the IPCC (2007a). Crop rotation designs that are expected to become possible in the future due to a prolonged vegetation period and at the same time shortened cereal growth period were tested for their likely success. The model suggested that a spring barley succeeding a winter barley may be successfully grown in the second half of the century, allowing for a larger yields by intensification of the cropping cycle. Growing a winter wheat after a sugar beet may lead to future problems as late sowing makes the winter wheat grow into periods prone to drought. Irrigation is projected to considerably improve and stabilise the yields of late cereals and of shallow rooting crops (maize and pea) on sandy soils in the continental climate part of Germany, but not in the humid West. Nitrogen fertiliser management needs to be adjusted to increasing or decreasing yield expectations and for decreasing soil moisture. On soils containing sufficient amounts of moisture and soil organic matter, enhanced mineralisation is expected to compensate for a greater N demand.
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Papers by Wilfried Mirschel