… issues in economics and econometrics: theory and …, 2004
One often-neglected problem when estimating term-structure models is the effect of measurement er... more One often-neglected problem when estimating term-structure models is the effect of measurement errors on the properties of the statistics of the particular theory of interest to an econometrician. Even default-free term-structure datasets often contain a large number of ...
Medium-term momentum, or the tendency of investment strategies based on buying past winning stock... more Medium-term momentum, or the tendency of investment strategies based on buying past winning stocks while selling past losing stocks to maintain above normal performance over a period, has been a well-documented feature of stock returns in the US. We investigate the performance of momentum investment strategies in portfolios of Australian stocks and examine some of the common explanations and empirical features of momentum. The paper establishes the presence of a strong medium-term momentum effect, which cannot be completely accounted for by any of the possible explanations considered in this paper. Keywords:
It has been documented that a momentum investment strategy based on buying past well performing s... more It has been documented that a momentum investment strategy based on buying past well performing stocks while selling past losing stocks, is a profitable one in the Australian context particularly in the 1990s. The aim of this short paper is to investigate whether or not this feature of Australian stock returns is still evident. The paper confirms the presence of a medium-term momentum effect, but also provides some interesting new evidence on the importance of the size effect on momentum.
One of the main diffculties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that t... more One of the main diffculties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that trading rules are often specifed rather vaguely by practitioners and depend upon the judicious choice of rule parameters. In this paper, popular moving-average (or cross-over) rules are applied to a cross-section of Australian stocks and the signals from the rules are used to form portfolios. The performance of the trading rules across the full range of possible parameter values is evaluated by means of an aggregate test that does not depend on the parameters of the rules. The results indicate that for a wide range of parameters moving-average rules generate contrarian profits (profits from the moving-average rules are negative). In bootstrap simulations the returns statistics are significant indicating that the moving-average rules pick up some form of systematic variation in returns that does not correlate with the standard risk factors.
Medium-term momentum, or the tendency of investment strategies based on buying past winning stock... more Medium-term momentum, or the tendency of investment strategies based on buying past winning stocks while selling past losing stocks to maintain above normal performance over a period, has been a well-documented feature of stock returns in the US. We investigate the performance of momentum investment strategies in portfolios of Australian stocks and examine some of the common explanations and empirical features of momentum. The paper establishes the presence of a strong medium-term momentum effect, which cannot be completely accounted for by any of the possible explanations considered in this paper.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2006
In a recent paper, Constantinides, Donaldson and Mehra (CDM) present a convincing economic story ... more In a recent paper, Constantinides, Donaldson and Mehra (CDM) present a convincing economic story that could simultaneously explain a high equity premium and a low risk-free rate. The argument is based on the effect of a borrowing restriction in an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with three generations. This paper investigates the effect of borrowing restrictions on the size of the equity premium in a model similar to CDM, but with a complete structure of contingent claims. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the results obtained by CDM follow from the particular market structure adopted in the model rather than the effects of the life cycle. Once the markets are completed, the equity premium and the risk-free rate in the OLG economy are identical to those obtained in a representative-agent (RA) economy.
During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers ... more During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.
One of the main difficulties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that ... more One of the main difficulties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that trading rules are often specified rather vaguely by practitioners and depend upon the judicious choice of rule parameters. In this paper, popular movingaverage (or cross-over) rules are applied to a cross-section of Australian stocks and the signals from the rules are used to form portfolios. The performance of the trading rules across the full range of possible parameter values is evaluated by means of an aggregate test that does not depend on the parameters of the rules. The results indicate that for a wide range of parameters moving-average rules generate contrarian profits (profits from the moving-average rules are negative). In bootstrap simulations the returns statistics are significant indicating that the moving-average rules pick up some form of systematic variation in returns that does not correlate with the standard risk factors.
One of the main difficulties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that ... more One of the main difficulties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that trading rules are often specified rather vaguely by practitioners and depend upon the judicious choice of rule parameters. In this paper, popular movingaverage (or cross-over) rules are applied to a cross-section of Australian stocks and the signals from the rules are used to form portfolios. The performance of the trading rules across the full range of possible parameter values is evaluated by means of an aggregate test that does not depend on the parameters of the rules. The results indicate that for a wide range of parameters moving-average rules generate contrarian profits (profits from the moving-average rules are negative). In bootstrap simulations the returns statistics are significant indicating that the moving-average rules pick up some form of systematic variation in returns that does not correlate with the standard risk factors.
… issues in economics and econometrics: theory and …, 2004
One often-neglected problem when estimating term-structure models is the effect of measurement er... more One often-neglected problem when estimating term-structure models is the effect of measurement errors on the properties of the statistics of the particular theory of interest to an econometrician. Even default-free term-structure datasets often contain a large number of ...
Medium-term momentum, or the tendency of investment strategies based on buying past winning stock... more Medium-term momentum, or the tendency of investment strategies based on buying past winning stocks while selling past losing stocks to maintain above normal performance over a period, has been a well-documented feature of stock returns in the US. We investigate the performance of momentum investment strategies in portfolios of Australian stocks and examine some of the common explanations and empirical features of momentum. The paper establishes the presence of a strong medium-term momentum effect, which cannot be completely accounted for by any of the possible explanations considered in this paper. Keywords:
It has been documented that a momentum investment strategy based on buying past well performing s... more It has been documented that a momentum investment strategy based on buying past well performing stocks while selling past losing stocks, is a profitable one in the Australian context particularly in the 1990s. The aim of this short paper is to investigate whether or not this feature of Australian stock returns is still evident. The paper confirms the presence of a medium-term momentum effect, but also provides some interesting new evidence on the importance of the size effect on momentum.
One of the main diffculties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that t... more One of the main diffculties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that trading rules are often specifed rather vaguely by practitioners and depend upon the judicious choice of rule parameters. In this paper, popular moving-average (or cross-over) rules are applied to a cross-section of Australian stocks and the signals from the rules are used to form portfolios. The performance of the trading rules across the full range of possible parameter values is evaluated by means of an aggregate test that does not depend on the parameters of the rules. The results indicate that for a wide range of parameters moving-average rules generate contrarian profits (profits from the moving-average rules are negative). In bootstrap simulations the returns statistics are significant indicating that the moving-average rules pick up some form of systematic variation in returns that does not correlate with the standard risk factors.
Medium-term momentum, or the tendency of investment strategies based on buying past winning stock... more Medium-term momentum, or the tendency of investment strategies based on buying past winning stocks while selling past losing stocks to maintain above normal performance over a period, has been a well-documented feature of stock returns in the US. We investigate the performance of momentum investment strategies in portfolios of Australian stocks and examine some of the common explanations and empirical features of momentum. The paper establishes the presence of a strong medium-term momentum effect, which cannot be completely accounted for by any of the possible explanations considered in this paper.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2006
In a recent paper, Constantinides, Donaldson and Mehra (CDM) present a convincing economic story ... more In a recent paper, Constantinides, Donaldson and Mehra (CDM) present a convincing economic story that could simultaneously explain a high equity premium and a low risk-free rate. The argument is based on the effect of a borrowing restriction in an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with three generations. This paper investigates the effect of borrowing restrictions on the size of the equity premium in a model similar to CDM, but with a complete structure of contingent claims. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the results obtained by CDM follow from the particular market structure adopted in the model rather than the effects of the life cycle. Once the markets are completed, the equity premium and the risk-free rate in the OLG economy are identical to those obtained in a representative-agent (RA) economy.
During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers ... more During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.
One of the main difficulties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that ... more One of the main difficulties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that trading rules are often specified rather vaguely by practitioners and depend upon the judicious choice of rule parameters. In this paper, popular movingaverage (or cross-over) rules are applied to a cross-section of Australian stocks and the signals from the rules are used to form portfolios. The performance of the trading rules across the full range of possible parameter values is evaluated by means of an aggregate test that does not depend on the parameters of the rules. The results indicate that for a wide range of parameters moving-average rules generate contrarian profits (profits from the moving-average rules are negative). In bootstrap simulations the returns statistics are significant indicating that the moving-average rules pick up some form of systematic variation in returns that does not correlate with the standard risk factors.
One of the main difficulties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that ... more One of the main difficulties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that trading rules are often specified rather vaguely by practitioners and depend upon the judicious choice of rule parameters. In this paper, popular movingaverage (or cross-over) rules are applied to a cross-section of Australian stocks and the signals from the rules are used to form portfolios. The performance of the trading rules across the full range of possible parameter values is evaluated by means of an aggregate test that does not depend on the parameters of the rules. The results indicate that for a wide range of parameters moving-average rules generate contrarian profits (profits from the moving-average rules are negative). In bootstrap simulations the returns statistics are significant indicating that the moving-average rules pick up some form of systematic variation in returns that does not correlate with the standard risk factors.
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