Thermal offset and surface offset are terms that describe the deviation of the mean annual ground... more Thermal offset and surface offset are terms that describe the deviation of the mean annual ground temperature from the mean annual air temperature. These offsets are controlled by surface characteristics and topo-climatic factors on a micro-and mesoscales. Macro-climatic conditions may, however, influence the effectiveness of the responsible processes. Existing knowledge on surface-and topography-specific offsets is not easily transferable and limits the applicability of empirical permafrost distribution models over large areas with macro-climatic gradients. In this paper we describe surface and thermal offsets derived from distributed measurements at seven field sites in British Columbia. Key findings are (i) a surprisingly small variation of the surface offsets between different surface types and small thermal offsets in general (excluding wetlands and peat), (ii) a clear influence of the micro-topography at wind exposed sites (snow cover erosion), (iii) a north-south difference of the surface offset of 4 • C in near-vertical bedrock and of 1.5-3 • C on open (no canopy) gentle slopes, (iv) only small macro-climatic differences caused by the reverse influence of snow cover thickness and annual air temperature amplitude. These findings suggest, that empirical permafrost models based on topo-climatic variables may be applicable across regions with significant macro-climatic differences.
The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest... more The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest land showing the potential for exceptionally large-scale disturbance to influence watershed hydrology. Pine stands killed by the epidemic can experience reduced levels of evapotranspiration and precipitation interception, which can translate into an increase in soil moisture as observed by some forest practitioners during salvage logging in the epicenter of the outbreak. They reported the replacement of summer ground, dry firm soil areas, with winter ground areas identified by having wetter, less firm soils upon which forestry equipment operation is difficult or impossible before winter freeze-up. To decrease the likelihood of soil disturbance from harvesting, a set of hazard indicators was developed to predict wet ground areas in areas heavily infested by the mountain pine beetle. Hazard indicators were based on available GIS data, aerial photographs, and local knowledge. Indicators were selected by an iterative process that began with office-based selection of potential indicators, model development and prediction, field verification, and model refinement to select those indicators that explained most field data variability. Findings indicate that the most effective indicators were lodgepole pine content, understory, drainage density, soil texture, and the topographic index.
We examine the direct effects of multiple disturbance agents on individual tree development and s... more We examine the direct effects of multiple disturbance agents on individual tree development and stand productivity in 15-40-year-old managed forests in British Columbia, Canada. Our primary interest was to establish a baseline assessment of damage in these forests and, especially, to focus on the degree to which biotic and abiotic stressors cause physical damage and diffuse mortality. Based on extensive climate data for the study area and the ecology of the disturbance agents we explore possible interactions between individual stressors and climate. Mean annual temperature increased by over 1 • C in the last century and annual precipitation increased by 8%, with that in the summer increasing by 18%. Disturbance agents were a central driver of mortality, growth and physical damage and their combined impact in lodgepole pine stands was as much as four times greater than expected particularly in the dominant trees most counted upon for stand productivity and timber supply. Climate-mediated disturbances accounted for five of the top six damage agent categories in terms of percent of basal area impacted but the lack of long-term disturbance monitoring data, a global information gap, limits our ability to conclusively link high damage rates to climatic changes.
We use the twice-daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover product t... more We use the twice-daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover product to study the regional influence of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on snow cover in British Columbia (BC). We apply a locally weighted regression (LOWESS) interpolation to the MODIS normalized difference snow index (NDSI) time series to detect the timing and duration of snow. We confirm the general consensus from many previous in situ studies that both ONI and PDO have significant impacts on snow cover in BC. We add to this knowledge by performing seasonal and regional analysis using established hydrozones and explore variation in our results by elevation bins of 500 m. We calibrated our method with in situ snow water equivalent (SWE) data and found an optimal NDSI threshold of 30 for detecting continuous snow cover. We separate automatic snow weather station data into calibration (75 %) and validation (25 %) subsets and obtain mean absolute errors between the MODIS and in situ observations for the start, end, and duration of 8.7, 8.9, and 13.1 d for the calibration data and 12.7, 12.6, and 16.6 d for the validation data, respectively. In general, the start date of snow is poorly correlated with both ONI and PDO, whereas the end date and duration are strongly negatively correlated. Regional patterns emerge wherein northern and southern BC are most correlated with the PDO and the ONI, respectively. These relationships are generally stronger at lower elevations and vary spatially. This study demonstrates that the suitability of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections as predictors of the timing and duration of snow varies throughout BC.
Atmosphere-ocean teleconnections influence the accumulation and melt of snow in western Canada an... more Atmosphere-ocean teleconnections influence the accumulation and melt of snow in western Canada and can be useful in seasonal forecasting of snowmelt and runoff. Interannual variation in these atmosphere-ocean modes has been shown to influence the accumulation and melt of snow within British Columbia (BC), Canada. We investigate fall mean sea level pressure (MSLP) globally as a predictor of remotely sensed snowmelt dates within BC. We use the last day of continuous snow cover (SD off) detected from time series satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer for the hydrological years 2000-2018. It has been shown that SD off is correlated with continuous snow duration and is also of interest to seasonal forecasters. Global MSLP from the Fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts was obtained over hydrological years 1979-2018. An S-mode (time versus location) principal component analysis was carried out on both datasets. The SD off principal component scores were grouped using a k-means clustering routine. Using evolutionary feature selection, the subset of MSLP principal components that provided good linear discrimination of the SD off clusters were found. We explore the atmospheric MSLP principal components that influence the timing of snowmelt over BC and use them to predict the SD off clusters at a seasonal lead time. RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] La présente étude expose les attributs spatiaux et temporels de quelque 45 millions d'éclairs nuage-sol détectés par le Réseau canadien de détection de la foudre entre 1999 et 2018. Même si les mises à niveau des capteurs ont amélioré l'efficacité de la détection et la précision d'emplacement des éclairs nuage-sol, les structures spatiales à grande échelle demeurent à peu près les mêmes que celles d'une étude antérieure couvrant la période 1999-2008. Les analyses, utilisant des cellules de surface uniforme de 10 km de côté, décrivent les caractéristiques régionales et saisonnières des éclairs négatifs et positifs, le pourcentage et la densité d'éclairs des éclairs positifs, ainsi que les courants de pointe des premières décharges pour les deux polarités. L'activité de la foudre au-dessus des provinces et des territoires connaît un pic au cours de l'été, allant de 95,9 % à 76,8 % de l'activité annuelle dans les Territoires-du-Nord-Ouest et l'Ontario, respectivement. En hiver, les éclairs sont rares, survenant généralement dans l'extrême sud de l'Ontario et dans les provinces atlantiques, et au-dessus des zones extracôtières à l'ouest de l'île de Vancouver et des eaux côtières longeant la Nouvelle-Écosse. Une analyse préliminaire donne à penser que, comparativement à la période 1999-2008, la majorité de l'ouest canadien et du nord du Canada ont observé plus de journées avec foudre au cours de la période 2009-2018, tandis que l'est du Canada en a enregistré moins. Une analyste statistique réalisée auprès de 154 stations dans l'ensemble du Canada a révélé que les hausses décennales (baisses) enregistrées dans 5 (31) stations étaient appréciables, atteignant au moins un niveau de confiance de 90 %, dont 4 (16) étaient significatives avec un niveau de confiance de 95 %.
A changing climate in British Columbia is expected to have many important effects on watershed pr... more A changing climate in British Columbia is expected to have many important effects on watershed processes that in turn will affect values such as water quality, water supplies, slope stability, and terrestrial
The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest... more The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest land showing the potential for exceptionally large-scale disturbance to influence watershed hydrology. Pine stands killed by the epidemic can experience reduced levels of evapotranspiration and precipitation interception, which can translate into an increase in soil moisture as observed by some forest practitioners during salvage logging in the epicenter of the outbreak. They reported the replacement of summer ground, dry firm soil areas, with winter ground areas identified by having wetter, less firm soils upon which forestry equipment operation is difficult or impossible before winter freeze-up. To decrease the likelihood of soil disturbance from harvesting, a set of hazard indicators was developed to predict wet ground areas in areas heavily infested by the mountain pine beetle. Hazard indicators were based on available GIS data, aerial photographs, and local knowledge. Indicators were selected by an iterative process that began with office-based selection of potential indicators, model development and prediction, field verification, and model refinement to select those indicators that explained most field data variability. Findings indicate that the most effective indicators were lodgepole pine content, understory, drainage density, soil texture, and the topographic index.
The biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) method for distinguishing areas of reasonably h... more The biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) method for distinguishing areas of reasonably homogeneous macroclimate has been used in British Columbia for over 20 years. Because of the paucity of actual long-term climate data, the method used other means to map climate. We tested how well the BEC climate units could be discriminated from one another using spatially modelled climate data. We tested the ability of climate data to distinguish three units for each of four climatically different zones at two levels of the climatic classification using discriminant analysis. For each analysis, 60 points were randomly selected from within the boundaries of the mapped unit and climate data were generated by ClimateBC. Even at the finest level of the mapping, over 70% of the randomly selected points were correctly classified according to the mapped unit based on selected climate variables. A large proportion of the misclassified points were within 1 km horizontal distance or 100 m elevat...
A changing climate in British Columbia is expected to have many important effects on watershed pr... more A changing climate in British Columbia is expected to have many important effects on watershed processes that in turn will affect values such as water quality, water supplies, slope stability, and terrestrial and aquatic habitats. In many parts of British Columbia, the effects of too much or too little water have already been observed and it is possible that an increased probability of droughts, floods, and landslides will result in considerable socio-economic, biological, and (or) physical changes in the future (Spittlehouse and Stewart 2004; Walker and Sydneysmith 2007). The influence of climate change on watershed processes is critically important to understand and to manage for now and in the future, as these functions directly determine human well-being in terms of public health, the economy, communities, and cultures. In this chapter, we provide a summary of research detailing recent climate changes in British Columbia and possible future climate scenarios. We then discuss how...
Key message Growth sensitivity to climate varies with soil moisture regime in spruce–fir forests ... more Key message Growth sensitivity to climate varies with soil moisture regime in spruce–fir forests in central British Columbia. Stands growing at their dry edaphic limits displayed especially strong and unique climatic sensitivities. Abstract Soil moisture regime is an important influence of productivity, process, and structure in forested ecosystems. In western North America, projected warming trends may result in decreasing available soil moisture; however, the potential effects on forest growth remain unclear. This study aimed to determine the influence of stand-level soil moisture regime on the climatic sensitivity of mature hybrid white spruce (Picea glauca (Moensch) Voss x Picea engelmannii Parry) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) forests in central British Columbia, Canada. We collected and analyzed tree-ring data from 51 stands spanning a range of soil moisture regimes. Dendroecological analyses of climate–growth relationships indicated that warm summer temper...
We studied the recovery of tree- and stand-level carbon (C) storage in a lodgepole pine (Pinus co... more We studied the recovery of tree- and stand-level carbon (C) storage in a lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) forest in northern British Columbia that experienced substantial (∼83%) mortality in 2006–2007 (total loss by 2013 = 86%) during a severe mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) infestation. Earlier work suggested that this forest recovered positive annual C storage 3 years after attack based on eddy covariance measurements. We sought to confirm these results by examining C storage in surviving pine trees using tree core analysis. Average growth release of surviving lodgepole pine trees was 392% (range of –53% to 2326%) compared with mean decadal growth prior to MPB attack. Nearly 97% of trees underwent a growth release, considerably higher than the 15%–75% reported for lodgepole pine in previous studies. Mean annual stem C storage of the surviving trees in this study was highly correlated (r = 0.88) with 10 years o...
Thermal offset and surface offset are terms that describe the deviation of the mean annual ground... more Thermal offset and surface offset are terms that describe the deviation of the mean annual ground temperature from the mean annual air temperature. These offsets are controlled by surface characteristics and topo-climatic factors on a micro-and mesoscales. Macro-climatic conditions may, however, influence the effectiveness of the responsible processes. Existing knowledge on surface-and topography-specific offsets is not easily transferable and limits the applicability of empirical permafrost distribution models over large areas with macro-climatic gradients. In this paper we describe surface and thermal offsets derived from distributed measurements at seven field sites in British Columbia. Key findings are (i) a surprisingly small variation of the surface offsets between different surface types and small thermal offsets in general (excluding wetlands and peat), (ii) a clear influence of the micro-topography at wind exposed sites (snow cover erosion), (iii) a north-south difference of the surface offset of 4 • C in near-vertical bedrock and of 1.5-3 • C on open (no canopy) gentle slopes, (iv) only small macro-climatic differences caused by the reverse influence of snow cover thickness and annual air temperature amplitude. These findings suggest, that empirical permafrost models based on topo-climatic variables may be applicable across regions with significant macro-climatic differences.
The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest... more The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest land showing the potential for exceptionally large-scale disturbance to influence watershed hydrology. Pine stands killed by the epidemic can experience reduced levels of evapotranspiration and precipitation interception, which can translate into an increase in soil moisture as observed by some forest practitioners during salvage logging in the epicenter of the outbreak. They reported the replacement of summer ground, dry firm soil areas, with winter ground areas identified by having wetter, less firm soils upon which forestry equipment operation is difficult or impossible before winter freeze-up. To decrease the likelihood of soil disturbance from harvesting, a set of hazard indicators was developed to predict wet ground areas in areas heavily infested by the mountain pine beetle. Hazard indicators were based on available GIS data, aerial photographs, and local knowledge. Indicators were selected by an iterative process that began with office-based selection of potential indicators, model development and prediction, field verification, and model refinement to select those indicators that explained most field data variability. Findings indicate that the most effective indicators were lodgepole pine content, understory, drainage density, soil texture, and the topographic index.
We examine the direct effects of multiple disturbance agents on individual tree development and s... more We examine the direct effects of multiple disturbance agents on individual tree development and stand productivity in 15-40-year-old managed forests in British Columbia, Canada. Our primary interest was to establish a baseline assessment of damage in these forests and, especially, to focus on the degree to which biotic and abiotic stressors cause physical damage and diffuse mortality. Based on extensive climate data for the study area and the ecology of the disturbance agents we explore possible interactions between individual stressors and climate. Mean annual temperature increased by over 1 • C in the last century and annual precipitation increased by 8%, with that in the summer increasing by 18%. Disturbance agents were a central driver of mortality, growth and physical damage and their combined impact in lodgepole pine stands was as much as four times greater than expected particularly in the dominant trees most counted upon for stand productivity and timber supply. Climate-mediated disturbances accounted for five of the top six damage agent categories in terms of percent of basal area impacted but the lack of long-term disturbance monitoring data, a global information gap, limits our ability to conclusively link high damage rates to climatic changes.
We use the twice-daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover product t... more We use the twice-daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover product to study the regional influence of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on snow cover in British Columbia (BC). We apply a locally weighted regression (LOWESS) interpolation to the MODIS normalized difference snow index (NDSI) time series to detect the timing and duration of snow. We confirm the general consensus from many previous in situ studies that both ONI and PDO have significant impacts on snow cover in BC. We add to this knowledge by performing seasonal and regional analysis using established hydrozones and explore variation in our results by elevation bins of 500 m. We calibrated our method with in situ snow water equivalent (SWE) data and found an optimal NDSI threshold of 30 for detecting continuous snow cover. We separate automatic snow weather station data into calibration (75 %) and validation (25 %) subsets and obtain mean absolute errors between the MODIS and in situ observations for the start, end, and duration of 8.7, 8.9, and 13.1 d for the calibration data and 12.7, 12.6, and 16.6 d for the validation data, respectively. In general, the start date of snow is poorly correlated with both ONI and PDO, whereas the end date and duration are strongly negatively correlated. Regional patterns emerge wherein northern and southern BC are most correlated with the PDO and the ONI, respectively. These relationships are generally stronger at lower elevations and vary spatially. This study demonstrates that the suitability of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections as predictors of the timing and duration of snow varies throughout BC.
Atmosphere-ocean teleconnections influence the accumulation and melt of snow in western Canada an... more Atmosphere-ocean teleconnections influence the accumulation and melt of snow in western Canada and can be useful in seasonal forecasting of snowmelt and runoff. Interannual variation in these atmosphere-ocean modes has been shown to influence the accumulation and melt of snow within British Columbia (BC), Canada. We investigate fall mean sea level pressure (MSLP) globally as a predictor of remotely sensed snowmelt dates within BC. We use the last day of continuous snow cover (SD off) detected from time series satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer for the hydrological years 2000-2018. It has been shown that SD off is correlated with continuous snow duration and is also of interest to seasonal forecasters. Global MSLP from the Fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts was obtained over hydrological years 1979-2018. An S-mode (time versus location) principal component analysis was carried out on both datasets. The SD off principal component scores were grouped using a k-means clustering routine. Using evolutionary feature selection, the subset of MSLP principal components that provided good linear discrimination of the SD off clusters were found. We explore the atmospheric MSLP principal components that influence the timing of snowmelt over BC and use them to predict the SD off clusters at a seasonal lead time. RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] La présente étude expose les attributs spatiaux et temporels de quelque 45 millions d'éclairs nuage-sol détectés par le Réseau canadien de détection de la foudre entre 1999 et 2018. Même si les mises à niveau des capteurs ont amélioré l'efficacité de la détection et la précision d'emplacement des éclairs nuage-sol, les structures spatiales à grande échelle demeurent à peu près les mêmes que celles d'une étude antérieure couvrant la période 1999-2008. Les analyses, utilisant des cellules de surface uniforme de 10 km de côté, décrivent les caractéristiques régionales et saisonnières des éclairs négatifs et positifs, le pourcentage et la densité d'éclairs des éclairs positifs, ainsi que les courants de pointe des premières décharges pour les deux polarités. L'activité de la foudre au-dessus des provinces et des territoires connaît un pic au cours de l'été, allant de 95,9 % à 76,8 % de l'activité annuelle dans les Territoires-du-Nord-Ouest et l'Ontario, respectivement. En hiver, les éclairs sont rares, survenant généralement dans l'extrême sud de l'Ontario et dans les provinces atlantiques, et au-dessus des zones extracôtières à l'ouest de l'île de Vancouver et des eaux côtières longeant la Nouvelle-Écosse. Une analyse préliminaire donne à penser que, comparativement à la période 1999-2008, la majorité de l'ouest canadien et du nord du Canada ont observé plus de journées avec foudre au cours de la période 2009-2018, tandis que l'est du Canada en a enregistré moins. Une analyste statistique réalisée auprès de 154 stations dans l'ensemble du Canada a révélé que les hausses décennales (baisses) enregistrées dans 5 (31) stations étaient appréciables, atteignant au moins un niveau de confiance de 90 %, dont 4 (16) étaient significatives avec un niveau de confiance de 95 %.
A changing climate in British Columbia is expected to have many important effects on watershed pr... more A changing climate in British Columbia is expected to have many important effects on watershed processes that in turn will affect values such as water quality, water supplies, slope stability, and terrestrial
The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest... more The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest land showing the potential for exceptionally large-scale disturbance to influence watershed hydrology. Pine stands killed by the epidemic can experience reduced levels of evapotranspiration and precipitation interception, which can translate into an increase in soil moisture as observed by some forest practitioners during salvage logging in the epicenter of the outbreak. They reported the replacement of summer ground, dry firm soil areas, with winter ground areas identified by having wetter, less firm soils upon which forestry equipment operation is difficult or impossible before winter freeze-up. To decrease the likelihood of soil disturbance from harvesting, a set of hazard indicators was developed to predict wet ground areas in areas heavily infested by the mountain pine beetle. Hazard indicators were based on available GIS data, aerial photographs, and local knowledge. Indicators were selected by an iterative process that began with office-based selection of potential indicators, model development and prediction, field verification, and model refinement to select those indicators that explained most field data variability. Findings indicate that the most effective indicators were lodgepole pine content, understory, drainage density, soil texture, and the topographic index.
The biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) method for distinguishing areas of reasonably h... more The biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) method for distinguishing areas of reasonably homogeneous macroclimate has been used in British Columbia for over 20 years. Because of the paucity of actual long-term climate data, the method used other means to map climate. We tested how well the BEC climate units could be discriminated from one another using spatially modelled climate data. We tested the ability of climate data to distinguish three units for each of four climatically different zones at two levels of the climatic classification using discriminant analysis. For each analysis, 60 points were randomly selected from within the boundaries of the mapped unit and climate data were generated by ClimateBC. Even at the finest level of the mapping, over 70% of the randomly selected points were correctly classified according to the mapped unit based on selected climate variables. A large proportion of the misclassified points were within 1 km horizontal distance or 100 m elevat...
A changing climate in British Columbia is expected to have many important effects on watershed pr... more A changing climate in British Columbia is expected to have many important effects on watershed processes that in turn will affect values such as water quality, water supplies, slope stability, and terrestrial and aquatic habitats. In many parts of British Columbia, the effects of too much or too little water have already been observed and it is possible that an increased probability of droughts, floods, and landslides will result in considerable socio-economic, biological, and (or) physical changes in the future (Spittlehouse and Stewart 2004; Walker and Sydneysmith 2007). The influence of climate change on watershed processes is critically important to understand and to manage for now and in the future, as these functions directly determine human well-being in terms of public health, the economy, communities, and cultures. In this chapter, we provide a summary of research detailing recent climate changes in British Columbia and possible future climate scenarios. We then discuss how...
Key message Growth sensitivity to climate varies with soil moisture regime in spruce–fir forests ... more Key message Growth sensitivity to climate varies with soil moisture regime in spruce–fir forests in central British Columbia. Stands growing at their dry edaphic limits displayed especially strong and unique climatic sensitivities. Abstract Soil moisture regime is an important influence of productivity, process, and structure in forested ecosystems. In western North America, projected warming trends may result in decreasing available soil moisture; however, the potential effects on forest growth remain unclear. This study aimed to determine the influence of stand-level soil moisture regime on the climatic sensitivity of mature hybrid white spruce (Picea glauca (Moensch) Voss x Picea engelmannii Parry) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) forests in central British Columbia, Canada. We collected and analyzed tree-ring data from 51 stands spanning a range of soil moisture regimes. Dendroecological analyses of climate–growth relationships indicated that warm summer temper...
We studied the recovery of tree- and stand-level carbon (C) storage in a lodgepole pine (Pinus co... more We studied the recovery of tree- and stand-level carbon (C) storage in a lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) forest in northern British Columbia that experienced substantial (∼83%) mortality in 2006–2007 (total loss by 2013 = 86%) during a severe mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) infestation. Earlier work suggested that this forest recovered positive annual C storage 3 years after attack based on eddy covariance measurements. We sought to confirm these results by examining C storage in surviving pine trees using tree core analysis. Average growth release of surviving lodgepole pine trees was 392% (range of –53% to 2326%) compared with mean decadal growth prior to MPB attack. Nearly 97% of trees underwent a growth release, considerably higher than the 15%–75% reported for lodgepole pine in previous studies. Mean annual stem C storage of the surviving trees in this study was highly correlated (r = 0.88) with 10 years o...
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