Papers by Valentina Gil Duque
This study investigates how early-life conditions interact with subsequent human capital investme... more This study investigates how early-life conditions interact with subsequent human capital investments to influence future educational outcomes. To provide causal evidence, we exploit two sources of exogenous variation: i) variation in early-life environments resulting from a child's exposure to extreme rainfall and drought shocks in early-life; and ii), variation in subsequent investments resulting from the availability of conditional cash transfers (CCT) that promote investments in children's health and education. Using Colombian administrative data, we combine a natural experiment with a regression discontinuity design using the CCT assignment rule. Results show that, although the CCT has an overall positive impact on children's educational outcomes, it does not have a differential effect on children exposed to early-life shocks; however, the overall effect of the program is large enough to mitigate the negative impact of the weather shock. These findings have important...
We explore how early-life shocks interact with subsequent human capital investments to influence ... more We explore how early-life shocks interact with subsequent human capital investments to influence children’s long-term outcomes. Using large-scale administrative data from Colombia, we combine a difference-in-difference framework with a regression discontinuity design to exploit two sources of exogenous variation: i) early-life exposure to adverse weather shocks that affect children’s initial skills and ii), the introduction of conditional cash transfers (CCT) that promote investments in children’s health and education. We show that the timing and type of CCT-induced investments matter for both the effects of CCTs and their interactive effects with weather shocks. When the CCT-induced investments occur in sensitive periods of human capital formation (e.g., early childhood), the effects are large and their interactive effects with weather conditions suggest that the returns of the program are even larger for children exposed to “normal” weather conditions. In contrast, CCT-induced inv...
Although the early-origins literature in economics and other disciplines suggests that early-life... more Although the early-origins literature in economics and other disciplines suggests that early-life shocks have long-term consequences, it does not investigate whether later human capital investments have the potential to mitigate such consequences. This study examines how early-life conditions interact with subsequent human capital investments to influence future educational outcomes. To provide causal evidence, we exploit two sources of exogenous variation: i) variation in early-life environments resulting from a child’s exposure to extreme rainfall and drought shocks in early-life; and ii), variation in subsequent investments resulting from the availability of conditional cash transfers (CCT) that promote investments in children’s health and education. Using Colombian administrative data, we combine a natural experiment with a regression discontinuity design using the CCT assignment rule. Results show that although the CCT has an overall positive impact on children’s educational ou...
That prenatal events can have lifelong consequences is now well established. Nevertheless, resear... more That prenatal events can have lifelong consequences is now well established. Nevertheless, research on the Fetal Origins Hypothesis is flourishing and has expanded to include the early childhood (postnatal) environment. Why does this literature have a "second act?" We summarize the major themes and contributions driving the empirical literature since our 2011 reviews, and try to interpret the literature in light of an overarching conceptual framework about how human capital is produced early in life. One major finding is that relatively mild shocks in early life can have substantial negative impacts, but that the effects are often heterogeneous reflecting differences in child endowments, budget constraints, and production technologies. Moreover, shocks, investments, and interventions can interact in complex ways that are only beginning to be understood. Many advances in our knowledge are due to increasing accessibility of comprehensive administrative data that allow events in early life to be linked to long-term outcomes. Yet, we still know relatively little about the interval between, and thus about whether it would be feasible to identify and intervene with affected individuals at some point between early life and adulthood. We do know enough, however, to be able to identify some interventions that hold promise for improving child outcomes in early life and throughout the life course. 2 The fetal origins literature has been particularly active over the last several years rendering reviews by Currie (2009) and Almond and Currie (2011a, b) somewhat dated. Figure 1 shows the number of papers about "fetal origins" in several leading journals by year. 1 Why does this literature "have legs"? By now, the rudimentary point is familiar. Currie and Hyson (1999) using longitudinal data showed that long-term outcomes seemed to respond to circumstances in utero; Costa (2000) found that chronic health conditions among older men were predicted by early-life infant mortality rates in their natal areas, which can proxy for the disease environment. Papers exploiting natural experiments to show the long-term impact of fetal and
The Economic Journal, 2015
We investigate the impacts of the dramatic increases in state unemployment rates that accompanied... more We investigate the impacts of the dramatic increases in state unemployment rates that accompanied the Great Recession on the health of women with children using the last two waves of the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study. We focus on a wide range of physical and mental health outcomes, as well as health behaviors. The paper is one of the first to use longitudinal data to examine the impact of unemployment on mother's health and the first to incorporate the Great Recession. We find that increases in the unemployment rate decrease selfreported health status and increase smoking and drug use. We also find evidence of heterogeneous impacts. Disadvantaged mothers-black and Hispanic, low educated, and unmarried-experience greater health deteriorations than advantaged mothers-white, married, and college educated.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
ABSTRACT This document offers a long-run overview of the labor market in Colombia analyzing the e... more ABSTRACT This document offers a long-run overview of the labor market in Colombia analyzing the effects of payroll taxes and minimum wage on the unemployment rate, unemployment duration and labor informality. The estimations indicate that the increase of payroll tax generates a rise in informality, unemployment and its duration. It is shown that rise in nonlabor costs occurred since 1990s has augmented unemployment by 3.5 percentage points, informality by 5.3 points and unemployment duration by six weeks. Thus, this paper confirms what has been pointed out by other studies about the negative impact that have the rise of labor and non-labor costs on labor market outcomes.
DOCUMENTOS CEDE, 2009
Este documento describe y analiza la evolución del desempleo desde 1980 estimando el efecto de lo... more Este documento describe y analiza la evolución del desempleo desde 1980 estimando el efecto de los costos laborales no salariales (parafiscales) y salario mínimo sobre la tasa y duración del desempleo así como el efecto de los costos mencionados sobre la informalidad. Los ...
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Papers by Valentina Gil Duque