This concluding chapter discusses this book's origins in the argument that the demographic tr... more This concluding chapter discusses this book's origins in the argument that the demographic transition is a key turning point for long-run development, not only in terms of a change in the regime of population dynamics toward low fertility and mortality, but also in the process of long-run economic development. The observed similarities in the transition process across space and time suggest that a better understanding of the reasons for such occurrences as the delay in the development of some countries might provide insights that are relevant beyond academic interest. The chapter argues that more interdisciplinary work between economists, demographers, and historians are needed to address the many facets that are covered only in passing, or not at all.
This paper presents a novel approach to analyze human decision-making that involves comparing the... more This paper presents a novel approach to analyze human decision-making that involves comparing the behavior of professional chess players relative to a computational benchmark of cognitively bounded rationality. This benchmark is constructed using algorithms of modern chess engines and allows investigating behavior at the level of individual move-by-move observations, thus representing a natural benchmark for computationally bounded optimization. The analysis delivers novel insights by isolating deviations from this benchmark of bounded rationality as well as their causes and consequences for performance. The findings document the existence of several distinct dimensions of behavioral deviations, which are related to asymmetric positional evaluation in terms of losses and gains, time pressure, fatigue, and complexity. The results also document that deviations from the benchmark do not necessarily entail worse performance. Faster decisions are associated with more frequent deviations from the benchmark, yet they are also associated with better performance. The findings are consistent with an important influence of intuition and experience, thereby shedding new light on the recent debate about computational rationality in cognitive processes.
We provide a unified theory of the transition in income, life expectancy, education, and populati... more We provide a unified theory of the transition in income, life expectancy, education, and population size from a nondeveloped environment to sustained growth. Individuals optimally trade off the time cost of education with its lifetime returns. Initially, low longevity implies a prohibitive cost for human capital formation for most individuals. A positive feedback loop between human capital and increasing longevity, triggered by endogenous skill-biased technological progress, eventually provides sufficient returns for widespread education. The transition is not based on scale effects and induces population growth despite unchanged fertility. A simulation illustrates that the dynamics fit historical data patterns.
Regional Dependencies in Job Creation: An Efficiency Analysis for Western Germany * This paper in... more Regional Dependencies in Job Creation: An Efficiency Analysis for Western Germany * This paper investigates the efficiency of the matching process between job seekers and vacancy posting firms in West-Germany, using variation across labor market regions and across time. The results of a stochastic frontier analysis shed new light on extent and regional differences of search frictions, on potential determinants of frictional inefficiencies and on the consequences of German reunification for the matching process. The paper also presents novel evidence on the complex interactions between spatial contingencies among regional labor markets: matching efficiency decreases with spatial autocorrelation in hiring, implying indirect evidence for crowding externalities.
Wissenschaftsethik und Technikfolgenbeurteilung, Oct 9, 2015
Jeder Planungsprozess befasst sich mit der Zukunft. Letztlich dient der Planungsprozess dazu, ube... more Jeder Planungsprozess befasst sich mit der Zukunft. Letztlich dient der Planungsprozess dazu, uber einen mehr oder weniger genau definierten Zeithorizont bestimmte Zwecke und Ziele zu erreichen oder erreichbar zu halten. Der Zweck der Planung, sowie die damit verbundenen Ziele, werden uber die im Planungsprozess zu regulierenden Handlungen und Masnahmen angestrebt und verwirklicht.
This paper investigates the consequences of population ageing and of changes in the education com... more This paper investigates the consequences of population ageing and of changes in the education composition of the population for macroeconomic performance. Estimation results from a theoretically founded empirical framework show that ageing as well as the education composition of the population influence economic performance. The estimates and simulations based on population projections and different counterfactual scenarios show that population ageing will have a substantial negative consequence for macroeconomic performance in many countries in the years to come. The results also suggest that education expansions tend to offset the negative effects, but that the extent to which they compensate the ageing effects differs vastly across countries. The simulations illustrate the heterogeneity in the effects of population ageing on economic performance across countries, depending on their current age and education composition. The estimates provide a method to quantify the increase in education that is required to offset the negative consequences of population ageing. Counterfactual changes in labour force participation and productivity required to neutralise ageing are found to be substantial.
This paper contributes to the debate whether climate change and global warming cause conflicts by... more This paper contributes to the debate whether climate change and global warming cause conflicts by providing novel evidence about the role of extreme temperature events for armed conflict based on highfrequency high-resolution data for the entire continent of Africa. The analysis of monthly data for 4826 grid cells of 0.75°latitude  longitude over the period 1997-2015 documents a positive effect of the occurrence of temperature extremes on conflict incidence. These effects are larger the more severe the extremes in terms of duration, and are larger in highly densely populated regions, in regions with lower agricultural productivity, and in regions with more pronounced land degradation. The results also point towards heterogeneity of the effect with respect to the type of violence and the crucial role of population dynamics. Considering the consequences of increases in the frequency of extreme events in a long-differences analysis delivers evidence for a positive effect on conflict.
Contrary to a widespread perception, there exists little evidence on the question as to whether t... more Contrary to a widespread perception, there exists little evidence on the question as to whether the beneficial effect of democracy on the quality of economic institutions is eroded by excessive inequality. This article provides evidence from a variety of panel data models that documents a significant interaction between political institutions and inequality in determining the quality of economic institutions. This suggests that democracy is not necessarily associated with high quality institutions. The empirical results suggest that excessively high levels of inequality erode institutional quality even in democracies, up to the point that democracies appear not to be able to implement good institutional environments if inequality is too high.
This concluding chapter discusses this book's origins in the argument that the demographic tr... more This concluding chapter discusses this book's origins in the argument that the demographic transition is a key turning point for long-run development, not only in terms of a change in the regime of population dynamics toward low fertility and mortality, but also in the process of long-run economic development. The observed similarities in the transition process across space and time suggest that a better understanding of the reasons for such occurrences as the delay in the development of some countries might provide insights that are relevant beyond academic interest. The chapter argues that more interdisciplinary work between economists, demographers, and historians are needed to address the many facets that are covered only in passing, or not at all.
This paper presents a novel approach to analyze human decision-making that involves comparing the... more This paper presents a novel approach to analyze human decision-making that involves comparing the behavior of professional chess players relative to a computational benchmark of cognitively bounded rationality. This benchmark is constructed using algorithms of modern chess engines and allows investigating behavior at the level of individual move-by-move observations, thus representing a natural benchmark for computationally bounded optimization. The analysis delivers novel insights by isolating deviations from this benchmark of bounded rationality as well as their causes and consequences for performance. The findings document the existence of several distinct dimensions of behavioral deviations, which are related to asymmetric positional evaluation in terms of losses and gains, time pressure, fatigue, and complexity. The results also document that deviations from the benchmark do not necessarily entail worse performance. Faster decisions are associated with more frequent deviations from the benchmark, yet they are also associated with better performance. The findings are consistent with an important influence of intuition and experience, thereby shedding new light on the recent debate about computational rationality in cognitive processes.
We provide a unified theory of the transition in income, life expectancy, education, and populati... more We provide a unified theory of the transition in income, life expectancy, education, and population size from a nondeveloped environment to sustained growth. Individuals optimally trade off the time cost of education with its lifetime returns. Initially, low longevity implies a prohibitive cost for human capital formation for most individuals. A positive feedback loop between human capital and increasing longevity, triggered by endogenous skill-biased technological progress, eventually provides sufficient returns for widespread education. The transition is not based on scale effects and induces population growth despite unchanged fertility. A simulation illustrates that the dynamics fit historical data patterns.
Regional Dependencies in Job Creation: An Efficiency Analysis for Western Germany * This paper in... more Regional Dependencies in Job Creation: An Efficiency Analysis for Western Germany * This paper investigates the efficiency of the matching process between job seekers and vacancy posting firms in West-Germany, using variation across labor market regions and across time. The results of a stochastic frontier analysis shed new light on extent and regional differences of search frictions, on potential determinants of frictional inefficiencies and on the consequences of German reunification for the matching process. The paper also presents novel evidence on the complex interactions between spatial contingencies among regional labor markets: matching efficiency decreases with spatial autocorrelation in hiring, implying indirect evidence for crowding externalities.
Wissenschaftsethik und Technikfolgenbeurteilung, Oct 9, 2015
Jeder Planungsprozess befasst sich mit der Zukunft. Letztlich dient der Planungsprozess dazu, ube... more Jeder Planungsprozess befasst sich mit der Zukunft. Letztlich dient der Planungsprozess dazu, uber einen mehr oder weniger genau definierten Zeithorizont bestimmte Zwecke und Ziele zu erreichen oder erreichbar zu halten. Der Zweck der Planung, sowie die damit verbundenen Ziele, werden uber die im Planungsprozess zu regulierenden Handlungen und Masnahmen angestrebt und verwirklicht.
This paper investigates the consequences of population ageing and of changes in the education com... more This paper investigates the consequences of population ageing and of changes in the education composition of the population for macroeconomic performance. Estimation results from a theoretically founded empirical framework show that ageing as well as the education composition of the population influence economic performance. The estimates and simulations based on population projections and different counterfactual scenarios show that population ageing will have a substantial negative consequence for macroeconomic performance in many countries in the years to come. The results also suggest that education expansions tend to offset the negative effects, but that the extent to which they compensate the ageing effects differs vastly across countries. The simulations illustrate the heterogeneity in the effects of population ageing on economic performance across countries, depending on their current age and education composition. The estimates provide a method to quantify the increase in education that is required to offset the negative consequences of population ageing. Counterfactual changes in labour force participation and productivity required to neutralise ageing are found to be substantial.
This paper contributes to the debate whether climate change and global warming cause conflicts by... more This paper contributes to the debate whether climate change and global warming cause conflicts by providing novel evidence about the role of extreme temperature events for armed conflict based on highfrequency high-resolution data for the entire continent of Africa. The analysis of monthly data for 4826 grid cells of 0.75°latitude  longitude over the period 1997-2015 documents a positive effect of the occurrence of temperature extremes on conflict incidence. These effects are larger the more severe the extremes in terms of duration, and are larger in highly densely populated regions, in regions with lower agricultural productivity, and in regions with more pronounced land degradation. The results also point towards heterogeneity of the effect with respect to the type of violence and the crucial role of population dynamics. Considering the consequences of increases in the frequency of extreme events in a long-differences analysis delivers evidence for a positive effect on conflict.
Contrary to a widespread perception, there exists little evidence on the question as to whether t... more Contrary to a widespread perception, there exists little evidence on the question as to whether the beneficial effect of democracy on the quality of economic institutions is eroded by excessive inequality. This article provides evidence from a variety of panel data models that documents a significant interaction between political institutions and inequality in determining the quality of economic institutions. This suggests that democracy is not necessarily associated with high quality institutions. The empirical results suggest that excessively high levels of inequality erode institutional quality even in democracies, up to the point that democracies appear not to be able to implement good institutional environments if inequality is too high.
Uploads
Papers by Uwe Sunde