The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributes with ca. 20–25&thin... more The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributes with ca. 20–25 % of global anthropogenic emissions (2010), making it a key component of any climate change mitigation strategy. AFOLU estimates remain, however, highly uncertain, jeopardizing the mitigation effectiveness of this sector. Global comparisons of AFOLU emissions have shown divergences of up to 25 %, urging for improved understanding on the reasons behind these differences. Here we compare a diversity of AFOLU emission datasets (e.g. FAOSTAT, EDGAR, the newly developed AFOLU "Hotspots", "Houghton", "Baccini", and EPA) and estimates given in the Fifth Assessment Report, for the tropics (2000–2005), to identify plausible explanations for the differences in: i) aggregated gross AFOLU emissions, and ii) disaggregated emissions by sources, and by gases (CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O). We also aim to...
Despite the importance of organic soils, including peatlands, in the global carbon cycle, detaile... more Despite the importance of organic soils, including peatlands, in the global carbon cycle, detailed information on regional and global emissions is scarce. This is due to the difficulty to map, measure, and assess the complex dynamics of land, soil, and water interactions needed to assess the human-driven degradation of organic soils. We produced a new methodology for the comprehensive assessment of drained organic soils in agriculture and the estimation of the associated greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicated that over 25 million hectares of organic soils were drained worldwide for agriculture use, of which about 60% were in boreal and temperate cool areas, 34% in tropical areas, and 5% in warm temperate areas. Total emissions from the drainage were globally significant, totaling nearly one billion tonnes CO 2 eq annually. Of this, the CO 2 component, about 780 million tonnes, represented more than one-fourth of total net CO 2 emissions from agriculture, forestry, and land use. The bulk of these emissions came from a few tropical countries in Southeast Asia, and was linked to land clearing and drainage for crop cultivation. Geospatial data relative to this work were disseminated via the FAO geospatial server GeoNetwork, while the national aggregated statistics were disseminated via the FAOSTAT database.
We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regards to recent trends in global ... more We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regards to recent trends in global GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU), including global emissions updates to 2012. By using all three available AFOLU datasets employed for analysis in the IPCC AR5, rather than just one as done in the IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, including crop and livestock production, forestr... more Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, including crop and livestock production, forestry and associated land use changes, are responsible for a significant fraction of anthropogenic emissions, up to 30% according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while emissions from fossil fuels are updated yearly and by multiple sources-including national-level statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA)-no comparable efforts for reporting global statistics for agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions exist: the latest complete assessment was the 2007 IPCC report, based on 2005 emission data. This gap is critical for several reasons. First, potentially large climate funding could be linked in coming decades to more precise estimates of emissions and mitigation potentials. For many developing countries, and especially the least developed ones, this requires improved assessments of AFOLU emissions. Second, growth in global emissions from fossil fuels has outpaced that from AFOLU during every decade of the period 1961-2010, so the relative contribution of the latter to total climate forcing has diminished over time, with a need for regular updates. We present results from a new GHG database developed at FAO, providing a complete and coherent time series of emission statistics over a reference period 1961-2010, at country level, based on FAOSTAT activity data and IPCC Tier 1 methodology. We discuss results at global and regional level, focusing on trends in the agriculture sector and net deforestation. Our results complement those available from the IPCC, extending trend analysis to a longer historical period and, critically, beyond 2005 to more recent years. In particular, from 2000 to 2010, we find that agricultural emissions increased by 1.1% annually, reaching 4.6 Gt CO 2 yr −1 in 2010 (up to 5.4-5.8 Gt CO 2 yr −1 with emissions from biomass burning and organic soils included). Over the same decade 2000-2010, the ratio of agriculture to fossil fuel emissions has decreased, from 17.2% to 13.7%, and the decrease is even greater for the ratio of net deforestation to fossil fuel emissions: from 19.1% to 10.1%. In fact, in the year 2000, emissions from agriculture have been consistently larger-about 1.2 Gt CO 2 yr −1 in 2010-than those from net deforestation.
The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) and the FAOSTAT Emissions database, containing estimat... more The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) and the FAOSTAT Emissions database, containing estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from biomass burning and peat fires, are compared. The two datasets formed the basis for several analyses in the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), and thus represent a critical source of information for emissions inventories at national, regional and global level. The two databases differ in their level of computational complexity in estimating emissions. While both use the same burned area information from remote sensing, estimates of available biomass are computed in GFED3 at tier 3 using a complex dynamic vegetation model, while they are computed in FAOSTAT using default, tier 1 parameters from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Over the analysis period 1997-2011, the two methods were found to produce very similar global GHG emissions estimates for each of the five GFED aggregated biomass fire classes: i) Savanna; ii) Woodland; iii) Forest; iv) Deforestation; v) Peatlands; with total emissions ranging 6-8 Gt CO2eq yr-1. The main differences between the two datasets were found with respect to peat fires, with FAOSTAT showing a lower 1997-1998 peak in emissions compared with GFED3, within an otherwise good agreement for the rest of the study period, when limited to the three tropical countries covered by GFED. Conversely, FAOSTAT global emissions from peat fires, including both boreal and tropical regions, were several times larger than those currently estimated by GFED3. Results
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 2010
ABSTRACT This work presents a simple, cost-effective, and operational approach to monitor crop wa... more ABSTRACT This work presents a simple, cost-effective, and operational approach to monitor crop water requirements at the regional scale for water management and monitoring purposes. The recommended Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations methodology (FAO-56) calculates crop evapotranspiration using crop-specific coefficients (K(c)), which vary according to the crop type, health, and phenological stage. This approach, though widely applied for irrigation planning, cannot always match the appropriate crop coefficient with the actual crop phenological stage and health condition, especially in anomalous situations. Previous research demonstrated that crop coefficients and spectral vegetation indexes are correlated. Recent studies have used this relationship with high-resolution satellite data from different sensors to provide information to irrigation advisory services. However, high-resolution data are not feasible for an operational and routine monitoring of water consumption and needs. This paper tests the usefulness of time series of coarse resolution satellite data such as those collected by the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, to monitor crop coefficients temporal and spatial variability and therefore crop water needs at the regional scale taking advantage of the peculiar characteristics offered by MODIS in terms of high temporal resolution and preprocessed products availability. The outlined methodology takes into account the actual growing stage of the crops and nearly real-time vegetation variations, overcoming some limitations of the traditional FAO approach while preserving the maximum operability. The analysis was carried out in the South Milan agricultural area on data referring to 2003 and 2004. The results agreed with those of other studies and proved to be able to account for the anomalous conditions of the summer in 2003. These results were then compared with those obtained using the traditional FAO crop coefficient curves built with data collected during field campaigns in the same years in rice fields. Constraints, limitations, and possible uses are discussed.
Studies into the relationships between environmental factors and violence or conflicts constitute... more Studies into the relationships between environmental factors and violence or conflicts constitute a very debated research field called environmental security. Several authors think that environmental scarcity, which is scarcity of renewable resources, can contribute to generate violence or social unrest, particularly within states scarcely endowed with technical know-how and social structures, such as developing countries. In this work, we referred to the theoretical model developed by the Environmental Change and Acute Conflict Project. Our goal was to use easily available spatial databases to map the various sources of environmental scarcity through geographic information systems, in order to locate the areas apparently most at risk of suffering negative social effects and their consequences in terms of internal security. The analysis was carried out at a subnational level and applied to the case of Kenya. A first phase of the work included a careful selection of databases relative to renewable resources. Spatial operations among these data allowed us to obtain new information on the availability of renewable resources (cropland, forests, water), on the present and foreseen demographic pressure, as well as on the social and technical ingenuity. The results made it possible to identify areas suffering from scarcity of one or more renewable resources, indicating different levels of gravity. Accounts from Kenya seem to confirm our results, reporting clashes between tribal groups over the access to scarce resources in areas that our work showed to be at high risk.
The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributes with ca. 20–25&thin... more The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributes with ca. 20–25 % of global anthropogenic emissions (2010), making it a key component of any climate change mitigation strategy. AFOLU estimates remain, however, highly uncertain, jeopardizing the mitigation effectiveness of this sector. Global comparisons of AFOLU emissions have shown divergences of up to 25 %, urging for improved understanding on the reasons behind these differences. Here we compare a diversity of AFOLU emission datasets (e.g. FAOSTAT, EDGAR, the newly developed AFOLU "Hotspots", "Houghton", "Baccini", and EPA) and estimates given in the Fifth Assessment Report, for the tropics (2000–2005), to identify plausible explanations for the differences in: i) aggregated gross AFOLU emissions, and ii) disaggregated emissions by sources, and by gases (CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O). We also aim to...
Despite the importance of organic soils, including peatlands, in the global carbon cycle, detaile... more Despite the importance of organic soils, including peatlands, in the global carbon cycle, detailed information on regional and global emissions is scarce. This is due to the difficulty to map, measure, and assess the complex dynamics of land, soil, and water interactions needed to assess the human-driven degradation of organic soils. We produced a new methodology for the comprehensive assessment of drained organic soils in agriculture and the estimation of the associated greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicated that over 25 million hectares of organic soils were drained worldwide for agriculture use, of which about 60% were in boreal and temperate cool areas, 34% in tropical areas, and 5% in warm temperate areas. Total emissions from the drainage were globally significant, totaling nearly one billion tonnes CO 2 eq annually. Of this, the CO 2 component, about 780 million tonnes, represented more than one-fourth of total net CO 2 emissions from agriculture, forestry, and land use. The bulk of these emissions came from a few tropical countries in Southeast Asia, and was linked to land clearing and drainage for crop cultivation. Geospatial data relative to this work were disseminated via the FAO geospatial server GeoNetwork, while the national aggregated statistics were disseminated via the FAOSTAT database.
We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regards to recent trends in global ... more We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regards to recent trends in global GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU), including global emissions updates to 2012. By using all three available AFOLU datasets employed for analysis in the IPCC AR5, rather than just one as done in the IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, including crop and livestock production, forestr... more Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, including crop and livestock production, forestry and associated land use changes, are responsible for a significant fraction of anthropogenic emissions, up to 30% according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while emissions from fossil fuels are updated yearly and by multiple sources-including national-level statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA)-no comparable efforts for reporting global statistics for agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions exist: the latest complete assessment was the 2007 IPCC report, based on 2005 emission data. This gap is critical for several reasons. First, potentially large climate funding could be linked in coming decades to more precise estimates of emissions and mitigation potentials. For many developing countries, and especially the least developed ones, this requires improved assessments of AFOLU emissions. Second, growth in global emissions from fossil fuels has outpaced that from AFOLU during every decade of the period 1961-2010, so the relative contribution of the latter to total climate forcing has diminished over time, with a need for regular updates. We present results from a new GHG database developed at FAO, providing a complete and coherent time series of emission statistics over a reference period 1961-2010, at country level, based on FAOSTAT activity data and IPCC Tier 1 methodology. We discuss results at global and regional level, focusing on trends in the agriculture sector and net deforestation. Our results complement those available from the IPCC, extending trend analysis to a longer historical period and, critically, beyond 2005 to more recent years. In particular, from 2000 to 2010, we find that agricultural emissions increased by 1.1% annually, reaching 4.6 Gt CO 2 yr −1 in 2010 (up to 5.4-5.8 Gt CO 2 yr −1 with emissions from biomass burning and organic soils included). Over the same decade 2000-2010, the ratio of agriculture to fossil fuel emissions has decreased, from 17.2% to 13.7%, and the decrease is even greater for the ratio of net deforestation to fossil fuel emissions: from 19.1% to 10.1%. In fact, in the year 2000, emissions from agriculture have been consistently larger-about 1.2 Gt CO 2 yr −1 in 2010-than those from net deforestation.
The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) and the FAOSTAT Emissions database, containing estimat... more The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) and the FAOSTAT Emissions database, containing estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from biomass burning and peat fires, are compared. The two datasets formed the basis for several analyses in the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), and thus represent a critical source of information for emissions inventories at national, regional and global level. The two databases differ in their level of computational complexity in estimating emissions. While both use the same burned area information from remote sensing, estimates of available biomass are computed in GFED3 at tier 3 using a complex dynamic vegetation model, while they are computed in FAOSTAT using default, tier 1 parameters from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Over the analysis period 1997-2011, the two methods were found to produce very similar global GHG emissions estimates for each of the five GFED aggregated biomass fire classes: i) Savanna; ii) Woodland; iii) Forest; iv) Deforestation; v) Peatlands; with total emissions ranging 6-8 Gt CO2eq yr-1. The main differences between the two datasets were found with respect to peat fires, with FAOSTAT showing a lower 1997-1998 peak in emissions compared with GFED3, within an otherwise good agreement for the rest of the study period, when limited to the three tropical countries covered by GFED. Conversely, FAOSTAT global emissions from peat fires, including both boreal and tropical regions, were several times larger than those currently estimated by GFED3. Results
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 2010
ABSTRACT This work presents a simple, cost-effective, and operational approach to monitor crop wa... more ABSTRACT This work presents a simple, cost-effective, and operational approach to monitor crop water requirements at the regional scale for water management and monitoring purposes. The recommended Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations methodology (FAO-56) calculates crop evapotranspiration using crop-specific coefficients (K(c)), which vary according to the crop type, health, and phenological stage. This approach, though widely applied for irrigation planning, cannot always match the appropriate crop coefficient with the actual crop phenological stage and health condition, especially in anomalous situations. Previous research demonstrated that crop coefficients and spectral vegetation indexes are correlated. Recent studies have used this relationship with high-resolution satellite data from different sensors to provide information to irrigation advisory services. However, high-resolution data are not feasible for an operational and routine monitoring of water consumption and needs. This paper tests the usefulness of time series of coarse resolution satellite data such as those collected by the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, to monitor crop coefficients temporal and spatial variability and therefore crop water needs at the regional scale taking advantage of the peculiar characteristics offered by MODIS in terms of high temporal resolution and preprocessed products availability. The outlined methodology takes into account the actual growing stage of the crops and nearly real-time vegetation variations, overcoming some limitations of the traditional FAO approach while preserving the maximum operability. The analysis was carried out in the South Milan agricultural area on data referring to 2003 and 2004. The results agreed with those of other studies and proved to be able to account for the anomalous conditions of the summer in 2003. These results were then compared with those obtained using the traditional FAO crop coefficient curves built with data collected during field campaigns in the same years in rice fields. Constraints, limitations, and possible uses are discussed.
Studies into the relationships between environmental factors and violence or conflicts constitute... more Studies into the relationships between environmental factors and violence or conflicts constitute a very debated research field called environmental security. Several authors think that environmental scarcity, which is scarcity of renewable resources, can contribute to generate violence or social unrest, particularly within states scarcely endowed with technical know-how and social structures, such as developing countries. In this work, we referred to the theoretical model developed by the Environmental Change and Acute Conflict Project. Our goal was to use easily available spatial databases to map the various sources of environmental scarcity through geographic information systems, in order to locate the areas apparently most at risk of suffering negative social effects and their consequences in terms of internal security. The analysis was carried out at a subnational level and applied to the case of Kenya. A first phase of the work included a careful selection of databases relative to renewable resources. Spatial operations among these data allowed us to obtain new information on the availability of renewable resources (cropland, forests, water), on the present and foreseen demographic pressure, as well as on the social and technical ingenuity. The results made it possible to identify areas suffering from scarcity of one or more renewable resources, indicating different levels of gravity. Accounts from Kenya seem to confirm our results, reporting clashes between tribal groups over the access to scarce resources in areas that our work showed to be at high risk.
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Papers by Simone Rossi