Cet article propose une évaluation prospective de la soutenabilité de la dette publique Il conclu... more Cet article propose une évaluation prospective de la soutenabilité de la dette publique Il conclut que la probabilité de soutenabilité de la politique budgétaire augmente si les autorités publiques assurent la stabilité du dirham marocain En revanche, le risque d'insoutenabilité de la dette publique augmente en cas de variation excessive du taux de change nominal : cas d'une dévaluation Ce travail montre ainsi que la politique de change semble être un élément important de la soutenabilité de la dette ce qui plaide pour une coordination entre la politique monétaire, la politique budgétaire et la politique de change afn de contribuer à la stabilité de la monnaie nationale et en conséquence à la soutenabilité de la dette publique.
L'évaluation du taux de change d'équilibre de moyen terme à travers les trois mesures -l&... more L'évaluation du taux de change d'équilibre de moyen terme à travers les trois mesures -l'équilibre macroéconomique, le taux de change d'équilibre et la viabilité extérieure- suggère une surévaluation du dirham marocain qui a atteint son niveau maximal en 2012. Cette évolution est liée à la dégradation du solde du compte courant comme en témoigne le creusement du déficit commercial et à la détérioration du déficit budgétaire. En somme, ce travail conclut que la surévaluation du dirham marocain a bien plus de déterminants que le déséquilibre extérieur. Si une politique de dévaluation semble être inappropriée dans le contexte actuel, la consolidation de l'équilibre macroéconomique se révèle alors comme une condition primordiale pour éviter une possible surévaluation du dirham marocain.
Depuis le declenchement de la crise economique et financiere internationale, la politique budgeta... more Depuis le declenchement de la crise economique et financiere internationale, la politique budgetaire a connu un vif regain d’interet dans les arenes academiques et dans les debats des policy-makers, aussi bien dans les pays avances que ceux en voie de developpement. Pour un pays en voie de developpement comme le Maroc, l’importance de la politique budgetaire reside dans le potentiel qu’elle offre en matiere de stabilisation du cycle economique et de relance de l’activite en periode de recession. Elle decoule egalement de la complexite de ses interactions avec les autres politiques economiques et sociales quel que soit leur nature, structurelle ou bien conjoncturelle. Toutefois l’efficacite de la politique budgetaire demeure conditionnee par un certain nombre de facteurs, notamment, sa capacite a adopter un comportement contra-cyclique, de gerer de maniere optimale l’arbitrage entre relance de l’activite et soutenabilite de la dette a long terme, ainsi que son aptitude a contribuer a...
The contemporary situation of public finances requires an assessment of the effects of taxation o... more The contemporary situation of public finances requires an assessment of the effects of taxation on the financing of the economy through the creation of budgetary areas. Indeed, with a fiscal pressure of 18.6% in 2016, and a record trade deficit of 20% of GDP, it seems legitimate to question the potential level of the tax burden in Morocco. Thus, the study of the tax effort is necessary for the apprehension of the public budget constraint. Through this study, we estimated through structural modeling in Randomized Panel data, during the period 2000-2016 to assess the optimal tax burden level. According to our results, the annual evolution of the geometric average tax potential in Morocco during the study period is 1.65%., Thus reflecting an effective levy level above the tax burden of the comparator countries, and thus structurally creating an additional fiscal space for the national economy.
The issue of a powerful fiscal policy comeback is not only being debated in Europe. It is also in... more The issue of a powerful fiscal policy comeback is not only being debated in Europe. It is also interesting for Morocco, in many respects. If in Europe there is controversy between the proponents of the structural budgetary balance rule and critics of restrictive policies in the context of major financial and recessive shocks, in the South of the Mediterranean fiscal policy is caught between the multiple social and economic requirements and the constraint of sustainability. 1.1. Fragility of budgetary performance On the eve of the structural adjustment policy, the budget deficit stood at 14% of GDP leading to a heavy reliance on external debt, which ultimately resulted in a default situation. The recovery of public finances from 1983 to 1992 resulted in a decline in the deficit from 9.2% to 2.2% of GDP. In the process, even if the Treasury deficit financing structure has changed significantly in favor of internal funding sources, the weight of foreign debt remained dominant at 67% within the total Treasury debt. Between 1993 and 2008, public finances have structurally generated budget deficits that are either mitigated or exacerbated by the succession of cyclical factors (drought, privatization revenues, the voluntary departure program, and commodity price fluctuations). Starting in 2009, it is clear that budget deficits increased until 2012 under the impact of the international economic situation. Meanwhile, fiscal imbalances in Morocco contributed to a widening of the current account deficit, thus creating a "twin deficits" situation. Between 1980 and 2014, the correlation coefficient amounted to 0.65 between these two aggregates evaluated in billions of dirhams and 0.49 as a percentage of GDP. 1 20. Akboul and Ragbi, Evaluation de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire au Maroc [Assessment of the fiscal policy stance in Morocco] (Rabat: Direction of Studies and Budget Forecasting, Ministry of Economy and Finance-Morocco, 2015). 21. Tarik Douira, Evaluation de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire au Maroc [Assessment of the fiscal policy stance in Morocco]. (Rabat: Organisme, 2014).
In the economic theory, many arguments were advanced to justify the efficiency of the fiscal poli... more In the economic theory, many arguments were advanced to justify the efficiency of the fiscal policy with a view to stabilization. For some, expansionist fiscal policies can have favorable effects on the economic growth, while for others, the economy is always in a global balanced situation, and thus the fiscal policy will have no effect and can be even harmful for the economy. However, these two effects can coexist in the economy, therefore putting forward the nonlinear character of fiscal policy in the economy growth. This study has the objective of appreciating the nature of the relation between fiscal policy and the economic growth in a 36 developing country sample of, taking into account the existence of possible nonlinear effects of the fiscal policy. Due to the use of the methodology of endogenous thresholds, the iterative procedure for the determination of endogenous thresholds developed by Hansen (1996, 1999, 2000) has allowed us to identify an optimal budget deficit thresho...
The aim of this paper is to test the relevance and the stability of Okun’s law for the case of Mo... more The aim of this paper is to test the relevance and the stability of Okun’s law for the case of Morocco over the period 2000-2014 using quarterly data. One of the features of our approach is the adoption of dynamic modelling to assess the sensitivity of cyclical unemployment over the periodes of expansion and contraction of the output cycle, as well as its response to sectoral output fluctuations. Our results show the existence of a structural break in the Okun’s relationship for the Moroccan case, and a high rigidity in the unemployment’s dynamic. Also, the asymmetry test of the relationship showed that cyclical unemployment is only linked to contractions in cyclical output, and more particularly to those in the tertiary sector. The policy implications of these results are important for three principal reasons. First, the assumption that “higher growth leads to lower unemployment” is not valid, at least, in the short term. Second, the introduction of policies to make the labour mark...
In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is proposed to determine the optima... more In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is proposed to determine the optimal monetary rule for the conduct a price stability policy in Morocco, if the monetary authorities decide to adopt a flexible exchange rate. The results suggest that the standard Taylor rule and Taylor rule with a target exchange rate are better adapted to the Moroccan economy. Indeed, these two monetary rules allow a stabilization of the macroeconomic framework, able to conduct effectiveness monetary policy. However, the Taylor rule with a target exchange rate gives a more stable exchange rate. Thus, on the basis of these empirical results, it seems appropriate for Moroccan monetary authorities to conduct this rule in the context of an intermediate exchange rate regime, as a preliminary phase before the transition to a floating regime.
The contemporary situation of public finances requires an assessment of the effects of taxation o... more The contemporary situation of public finances requires an assessment of the effects of taxation on the financing of the economy through the creation of budgetary areas. With a fiscal pressure of 18.6% in 2016 and a record trade deficit of 20% of GDP, it seems legitimate to question the potential level of the tax burden in Morocco. This makes the study of the tax effort necessary for the apprehension of the public budget constraint. Through this study, structural modeling was used to estimate the Randomized Panel data during the period 2000-2016 to assess the optimal tax burden level. According to the results obtained, the annual evolution of the geometric average tax potential in Morocco during the study period is 1.65%. This reflects an effective levy level which is above the tax burden of the comparator countries, and it creates an additional fiscal space for the national economy structurally.
We examine the relation between fiscal policy and economic growth for a panel of 40 developing co... more We examine the relation between fiscal policy and economic growth for a panel of 40 developing countries over the period of 1990 to 2012 using eight macroeconomic variables: real GDP, budget deficit, current government spending, national saving, inflation rate, total investment, public debt, and current account balance. The study documents a double threshold effect of the fiscal balance. The first one is at a level of the deficit around 4.8% of GDP; the second one is at the fiscal surplus level of 3.2% of GDP meaning that economic growth would be negatively affected when exceeding these two different levels. The result also show that the sign of the relation between budget deficit and economic growth is conditioned by the level of total investment i.e. only for total investment higher than 23%, there exists a positive relation. However, it becomes negative, when investment falls below this threshold.
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2013
The exploration of the structural features and sectoral interdependences of and in an economy is ... more The exploration of the structural features and sectoral interdependences of and in an economy is fundamental for the understanding of its modes of functioning and of its transformations over time. Input-output analysis is largely used to fulfill this objective. Furthermore, information provided by the Leontief inverse matrix is useful for the identification of key sectors. This identification may guide policy makers in setting an adequate industrial strategy. In this paper, the classification of productive sectors is performed by using the Unweighted Rassmussen Approach. The ordering of sectors depends on the intensity of their links with other sectors. Two results ought to be highlighted. First, key sectors of the Moroccan economy (sectors that are classified in category II) reduced to two sectors in 2007 instead of four sectors in 1998. Second, the ordering of sectors is highly sensitive to the precision of the data and to the year in which the classification is realized.
Pays observateur depuis 2005, le Maroc a effectue sa demande d’integration a la CEDEAO lors de so... more Pays observateur depuis 2005, le Maroc a effectue sa demande d’integration a la CEDEAO lors de son 51 eme sommet. Cette demande vient concretiser la volonte du Maroc qui vise a renforcer les relations economiques et le commerce intra-africain. Cet article a pour but d’estimer l’impact de la CEDEAO sur le commerce intra et extra-communautaire et d’analyser le potentiel de commerce entre le Maroc et la CEDEAO. Ce travail apporte une analyse ex-ante de l’effet commercial que pourrait avoir le Maroc en tant que membre de la CEDEAO a partir des flux commerciaux. P our estimer le potentiel du commerce, l’utilisation d’un modele gravitationnel base sur des donnees de panel est retenue au moyen de l’estimateur PPML avec effets fixes par la methode recente HDFE afin de repondre aux problemes de flux nuls et de l’heteroscedasticite sur la periode 1995-2018. Les resultats montrent que la CEDEAO cree du commerce entre ses membres et detourne le commerce avec ses partenaires. L’adhesion du Maro...
Cet article propose une évaluation prospective de la soutenabilité de la dette publique Il conclu... more Cet article propose une évaluation prospective de la soutenabilité de la dette publique Il conclut que la probabilité de soutenabilité de la politique budgétaire augmente si les autorités publiques assurent la stabilité du dirham marocain En revanche, le risque d'insoutenabilité de la dette publique augmente en cas de variation excessive du taux de change nominal : cas d'une dévaluation Ce travail montre ainsi que la politique de change semble être un élément important de la soutenabilité de la dette ce qui plaide pour une coordination entre la politique monétaire, la politique budgétaire et la politique de change afn de contribuer à la stabilité de la monnaie nationale et en conséquence à la soutenabilité de la dette publique.
L'évaluation du taux de change d'équilibre de moyen terme à travers les trois mesures -l&... more L'évaluation du taux de change d'équilibre de moyen terme à travers les trois mesures -l'équilibre macroéconomique, le taux de change d'équilibre et la viabilité extérieure- suggère une surévaluation du dirham marocain qui a atteint son niveau maximal en 2012. Cette évolution est liée à la dégradation du solde du compte courant comme en témoigne le creusement du déficit commercial et à la détérioration du déficit budgétaire. En somme, ce travail conclut que la surévaluation du dirham marocain a bien plus de déterminants que le déséquilibre extérieur. Si une politique de dévaluation semble être inappropriée dans le contexte actuel, la consolidation de l'équilibre macroéconomique se révèle alors comme une condition primordiale pour éviter une possible surévaluation du dirham marocain.
Depuis le declenchement de la crise economique et financiere internationale, la politique budgeta... more Depuis le declenchement de la crise economique et financiere internationale, la politique budgetaire a connu un vif regain d’interet dans les arenes academiques et dans les debats des policy-makers, aussi bien dans les pays avances que ceux en voie de developpement. Pour un pays en voie de developpement comme le Maroc, l’importance de la politique budgetaire reside dans le potentiel qu’elle offre en matiere de stabilisation du cycle economique et de relance de l’activite en periode de recession. Elle decoule egalement de la complexite de ses interactions avec les autres politiques economiques et sociales quel que soit leur nature, structurelle ou bien conjoncturelle. Toutefois l’efficacite de la politique budgetaire demeure conditionnee par un certain nombre de facteurs, notamment, sa capacite a adopter un comportement contra-cyclique, de gerer de maniere optimale l’arbitrage entre relance de l’activite et soutenabilite de la dette a long terme, ainsi que son aptitude a contribuer a...
The contemporary situation of public finances requires an assessment of the effects of taxation o... more The contemporary situation of public finances requires an assessment of the effects of taxation on the financing of the economy through the creation of budgetary areas. Indeed, with a fiscal pressure of 18.6% in 2016, and a record trade deficit of 20% of GDP, it seems legitimate to question the potential level of the tax burden in Morocco. Thus, the study of the tax effort is necessary for the apprehension of the public budget constraint. Through this study, we estimated through structural modeling in Randomized Panel data, during the period 2000-2016 to assess the optimal tax burden level. According to our results, the annual evolution of the geometric average tax potential in Morocco during the study period is 1.65%., Thus reflecting an effective levy level above the tax burden of the comparator countries, and thus structurally creating an additional fiscal space for the national economy.
The issue of a powerful fiscal policy comeback is not only being debated in Europe. It is also in... more The issue of a powerful fiscal policy comeback is not only being debated in Europe. It is also interesting for Morocco, in many respects. If in Europe there is controversy between the proponents of the structural budgetary balance rule and critics of restrictive policies in the context of major financial and recessive shocks, in the South of the Mediterranean fiscal policy is caught between the multiple social and economic requirements and the constraint of sustainability. 1.1. Fragility of budgetary performance On the eve of the structural adjustment policy, the budget deficit stood at 14% of GDP leading to a heavy reliance on external debt, which ultimately resulted in a default situation. The recovery of public finances from 1983 to 1992 resulted in a decline in the deficit from 9.2% to 2.2% of GDP. In the process, even if the Treasury deficit financing structure has changed significantly in favor of internal funding sources, the weight of foreign debt remained dominant at 67% within the total Treasury debt. Between 1993 and 2008, public finances have structurally generated budget deficits that are either mitigated or exacerbated by the succession of cyclical factors (drought, privatization revenues, the voluntary departure program, and commodity price fluctuations). Starting in 2009, it is clear that budget deficits increased until 2012 under the impact of the international economic situation. Meanwhile, fiscal imbalances in Morocco contributed to a widening of the current account deficit, thus creating a "twin deficits" situation. Between 1980 and 2014, the correlation coefficient amounted to 0.65 between these two aggregates evaluated in billions of dirhams and 0.49 as a percentage of GDP. 1 20. Akboul and Ragbi, Evaluation de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire au Maroc [Assessment of the fiscal policy stance in Morocco] (Rabat: Direction of Studies and Budget Forecasting, Ministry of Economy and Finance-Morocco, 2015). 21. Tarik Douira, Evaluation de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire au Maroc [Assessment of the fiscal policy stance in Morocco]. (Rabat: Organisme, 2014).
In the economic theory, many arguments were advanced to justify the efficiency of the fiscal poli... more In the economic theory, many arguments were advanced to justify the efficiency of the fiscal policy with a view to stabilization. For some, expansionist fiscal policies can have favorable effects on the economic growth, while for others, the economy is always in a global balanced situation, and thus the fiscal policy will have no effect and can be even harmful for the economy. However, these two effects can coexist in the economy, therefore putting forward the nonlinear character of fiscal policy in the economy growth. This study has the objective of appreciating the nature of the relation between fiscal policy and the economic growth in a 36 developing country sample of, taking into account the existence of possible nonlinear effects of the fiscal policy. Due to the use of the methodology of endogenous thresholds, the iterative procedure for the determination of endogenous thresholds developed by Hansen (1996, 1999, 2000) has allowed us to identify an optimal budget deficit thresho...
The aim of this paper is to test the relevance and the stability of Okun’s law for the case of Mo... more The aim of this paper is to test the relevance and the stability of Okun’s law for the case of Morocco over the period 2000-2014 using quarterly data. One of the features of our approach is the adoption of dynamic modelling to assess the sensitivity of cyclical unemployment over the periodes of expansion and contraction of the output cycle, as well as its response to sectoral output fluctuations. Our results show the existence of a structural break in the Okun’s relationship for the Moroccan case, and a high rigidity in the unemployment’s dynamic. Also, the asymmetry test of the relationship showed that cyclical unemployment is only linked to contractions in cyclical output, and more particularly to those in the tertiary sector. The policy implications of these results are important for three principal reasons. First, the assumption that “higher growth leads to lower unemployment” is not valid, at least, in the short term. Second, the introduction of policies to make the labour mark...
In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is proposed to determine the optima... more In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is proposed to determine the optimal monetary rule for the conduct a price stability policy in Morocco, if the monetary authorities decide to adopt a flexible exchange rate. The results suggest that the standard Taylor rule and Taylor rule with a target exchange rate are better adapted to the Moroccan economy. Indeed, these two monetary rules allow a stabilization of the macroeconomic framework, able to conduct effectiveness monetary policy. However, the Taylor rule with a target exchange rate gives a more stable exchange rate. Thus, on the basis of these empirical results, it seems appropriate for Moroccan monetary authorities to conduct this rule in the context of an intermediate exchange rate regime, as a preliminary phase before the transition to a floating regime.
The contemporary situation of public finances requires an assessment of the effects of taxation o... more The contemporary situation of public finances requires an assessment of the effects of taxation on the financing of the economy through the creation of budgetary areas. With a fiscal pressure of 18.6% in 2016 and a record trade deficit of 20% of GDP, it seems legitimate to question the potential level of the tax burden in Morocco. This makes the study of the tax effort necessary for the apprehension of the public budget constraint. Through this study, structural modeling was used to estimate the Randomized Panel data during the period 2000-2016 to assess the optimal tax burden level. According to the results obtained, the annual evolution of the geometric average tax potential in Morocco during the study period is 1.65%. This reflects an effective levy level which is above the tax burden of the comparator countries, and it creates an additional fiscal space for the national economy structurally.
We examine the relation between fiscal policy and economic growth for a panel of 40 developing co... more We examine the relation between fiscal policy and economic growth for a panel of 40 developing countries over the period of 1990 to 2012 using eight macroeconomic variables: real GDP, budget deficit, current government spending, national saving, inflation rate, total investment, public debt, and current account balance. The study documents a double threshold effect of the fiscal balance. The first one is at a level of the deficit around 4.8% of GDP; the second one is at the fiscal surplus level of 3.2% of GDP meaning that economic growth would be negatively affected when exceeding these two different levels. The result also show that the sign of the relation between budget deficit and economic growth is conditioned by the level of total investment i.e. only for total investment higher than 23%, there exists a positive relation. However, it becomes negative, when investment falls below this threshold.
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2013
The exploration of the structural features and sectoral interdependences of and in an economy is ... more The exploration of the structural features and sectoral interdependences of and in an economy is fundamental for the understanding of its modes of functioning and of its transformations over time. Input-output analysis is largely used to fulfill this objective. Furthermore, information provided by the Leontief inverse matrix is useful for the identification of key sectors. This identification may guide policy makers in setting an adequate industrial strategy. In this paper, the classification of productive sectors is performed by using the Unweighted Rassmussen Approach. The ordering of sectors depends on the intensity of their links with other sectors. Two results ought to be highlighted. First, key sectors of the Moroccan economy (sectors that are classified in category II) reduced to two sectors in 2007 instead of four sectors in 1998. Second, the ordering of sectors is highly sensitive to the precision of the data and to the year in which the classification is realized.
Pays observateur depuis 2005, le Maroc a effectue sa demande d’integration a la CEDEAO lors de so... more Pays observateur depuis 2005, le Maroc a effectue sa demande d’integration a la CEDEAO lors de son 51 eme sommet. Cette demande vient concretiser la volonte du Maroc qui vise a renforcer les relations economiques et le commerce intra-africain. Cet article a pour but d’estimer l’impact de la CEDEAO sur le commerce intra et extra-communautaire et d’analyser le potentiel de commerce entre le Maroc et la CEDEAO. Ce travail apporte une analyse ex-ante de l’effet commercial que pourrait avoir le Maroc en tant que membre de la CEDEAO a partir des flux commerciaux. P our estimer le potentiel du commerce, l’utilisation d’un modele gravitationnel base sur des donnees de panel est retenue au moyen de l’estimateur PPML avec effets fixes par la methode recente HDFE afin de repondre aux problemes de flux nuls et de l’heteroscedasticite sur la periode 1995-2018. Les resultats montrent que la CEDEAO cree du commerce entre ses membres et detourne le commerce avec ses partenaires. L’adhesion du Maro...
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