Nearly a year before passage of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, this article defended the ... more Nearly a year before passage of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, this article defended the economic importance of Kemp-Roth reductions in individual tax rates against those who argued that corporate taxes mattered much more. In Jan. 1981 the author became the first tax economist on the Reagan transition team. He later served as Research Director the Kemp Tax Reform Commission.
Spanish translation of Alan Reynolds, "Crises and Recoveries: Multinational Failures and National... more Spanish translation of Alan Reynolds, "Crises and Recoveries: Multinational Failures and National Successes" from The Cato Journal, Vol 23 No.1 Spring/Summer 2003.
Case studies examine 11 countries whose economies (1) suffered falling output and rising inflation while following IMF programs as a condition of receiving loans, but (2) subsequently recovered by adopting quite different policies such as lower marginal tax rates, lower tariffs and stable exchange rates.
Countries studied include Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, S.Korea, Jamaica, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, Russia and Turkey.
Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels were astute critics of big governments and the high taxes needed to f... more Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels were astute critics of big governments and the high taxes needed to finance them. Both had a keen appreeciation of the power of taxation to destroy incentives and economic progress, as did later followers such as Leon Trotsky.
Written in 1981 by the late Robert Keleher of the St. Louis Fed (after some discussion with Reyno... more Written in 1981 by the late Robert Keleher of the St. Louis Fed (after some discussion with Reynolds), this was one of the earliest surveys of the evidence then available to support the hypothesis that macroeconomic incentives from marginal tax rates have frequently had a significant impact on macroeconomic results --notably the pace of economic growth within countries (time series) and between countries and states (in cross-section comparisons).
My friend and sometime co-author the late Meyer Louis Burstein held a J.D. and PhD in economics f... more My friend and sometime co-author the late Meyer Louis Burstein held a J.D. and PhD in economics from the University of Chicago, where he studied under Milton Friedeman and Frank Knight. http://prabook.org/web/person-view.html?profileId=953256 His many books remain in high demand on Amazon http://www.amazon.com/M.-L.-Burstein/e/B001JRVHIM I had nothing to do with the writing, but the author left me the only known copy. I will post other chapters here and hope to publish the whole volume as an e-book on Amazon, with his wife's blessing.
Entitled "Pillars of Prosperity," this is mainly a historical survey of countries which made rapi... more Entitled "Pillars of Prosperity," this is mainly a historical survey of countries which made rapid recoveries from economic disasters. Several of these episodes have been called "economic miracles," but they all had several features in common -- notably improved monetary stability, reasonably unrestricted trade, and moderate taxation of incremental (marginal) income.
There is a condensed version which may be posted later. (Both suffered some loss of readability in the conversion from vintage Word Perfect to a modern version of Microsoft Word).
States, like nations, need competitive tax rates to prevent an exodus of skilled people and entre... more States, like nations, need competitive tax rates to prevent an exodus of skilled people and entrepreneurs (a "brain drain") and an exodus of investment business("capital flight"). New Jersey doubled its top income tax rate in 1991, to 7% from 3.5%, and the state economy and revenue soon suffered. This papere reputedly had some influence on Gov. Whitman, who reduced most tax rates in 1994-96 but left the top rate at 6.37%. The top tax rate has been to 8.97% since 2004, and the state economy suffers more than most, so this paper remains quite relevant to New Jersey (which ranks #50 in the Tax Foundation business climate index) but also to all other high-tax states.
Paper presented at an April 14, 1997 conference, "Should Congress Direct the Federal Reserve to S... more Paper presented at an April 14, 1997 conference, "Should Congress Direct the Federal Reserve to Stabliize Prices?" sponsored by the Durrell Institute, Shenandoah University.
Evaluates (1) various proposed targets for the Federal Reserve to aim at and (2) various instruments ostensibly designed to hit those targets with some precision.
A paper presented at the Fraser Institute, Vacouver B.C., September 15, 2000.
It rev... more A paper presented at the Fraser Institute, Vacouver B.C., September 15, 2000. It revisits the author's experience advocating, successfully, reducing Australia's tax rate on realized capital by half. The country's prior experience with a CGT tax rate up to 48.5% caused unproductive distortions and disincentive while raising very little revenue. Opponents of reform claimed high-income households paid 80% of the CGT, but the true figure was 12-18%. They claimed official U.S. estimates about the near-zero revenue losses from a much lower tax rate were greatly different from my own, though this was also untrue. See https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=4472
This paper includes a detailed critique of a flawed 1995 study of the 1980-83 U.S. experience by Len Burman, and a book on capital gains by the same author. There is also discussion of the alleged "fairness" of tax rates so high that they are rarely paid.
This is one of six expert papers commissioned by The National Commission on the Cost of Higher Ed... more This is one of six expert papers commissioned by The National Commission on the Cost of Higher Education. The final report "Straight Talk About College Costs and Prices" was submitted to President Clinton on January 21, 1998.
A small sample from the statistical observations:
1. Ups and downs in the inflation in higher education prices have been similar to inflation in other (labor-intensive) services. 2. Comparing a mean average of tuition sticker prices with median income is misleading in many ways. 3. Schools combining nominally high tuition with deep discounts (aid) are acting like a price-discriminating cartel. 4. Federal grants to institutions boosted research at the expense of teaching. Smaller aid to students tends to displace other funding and aggravates non-price rationing
Testimony before House Republican Study Committee, Washington D.C., April 1, 1987.
Blames leng... more Testimony before House Republican Study Committee, Washington D.C., April 1, 1987.
Blames length and depth of 1982 recession on "excessive tightening of Federal Reserve Policy from February through July of 1982...[and]a mypopic decision to postpopne any tax relief for individuals until 1983-84."
Shows faster growth of real revenues in U.S. & U.K. than in countries with higher top tax rates.
Shows govt borrowing was not large relative to govt investment in the USA. Also, intl data shown to be inconsistent with "twin deficits" theoretical link between budget and current account deficits.
A 2003 presentation at Vanderbilt University on the history of the phrase "supply-side economics"... more A 2003 presentation at Vanderbilt University on the history of the phrase "supply-side economics" (from 1976), and its meaning in that historical context. Also answers some critics.
A Feb 2014 IMF staff discussion paper by Berg and Tsangarides used a scatter diagram of 153 count... more A Feb 2014 IMF staff discussion paper by Berg and Tsangarides used a scatter diagram of 153 countries to suggest inequality is bad for economic growth and redistribution harmless. Confining the same experiment to G-20 countries reverses those conclusions.
In the twentieth century, many countries emerged from economic disaster and began to enjoy prolon... more In the twentieth century, many countries emerged from economic disaster and began to enjoy prolonged periods of prosperity. Such episodes are often called "economic miracles" because the sudden switch from economic decline to rapid economic growth appears mysterious to economists who have not examined what all such miracles had in common.
This brief economic history includes the "Poincare Miracle" of France in 1926, the "Erhard Miracle" of Germany in 1948, the Japanese miracle of 1951 to 1978, South Korea after 1980, Hong Kong, Singapore, Chile, Mauritius and many others. All such newly miraculous economies (including Russia after 2000) had two or three features in common.
This was a chapter in a 1993 Hudson Institute report prepared for the Istanbul Chamber of Commerc... more This was a chapter in a 1993 Hudson Institute report prepared for the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce.
The chapter uses experience of tax reforms in the U.S. and other countries to advocate lower marginal tax rates to improve incentives to provide extra labor and capital to the formal market economy.
Whether influenced by this paper or not, Turkey did in fact slash the top tax rate from 55% in 1994 to 45% in 1998, 40% in 1999 and 35.6% in 2005.
This1992 paper for consulting clients (institutional investors) uses evidence from countries that... more This1992 paper for consulting clients (institutional investors) uses evidence from countries that experienced large swings from budget deficit to surplus (and vice versa) to show that private saving moved in the opposite direction sufficiently to leave gross national saving unchanged.
For many years after this was written, each dollar of government borrowing was widely assumed to subtract one dollar from overall national saving.
By 2015, the Congressional Budget Office conceded that "private saving rises by 43 cents for every one-dollar increase in federal borrowing in the long run, leaving a net decline of 57 cents in national saving.” This paper suggest the rise in private saving may be closer to 100 cents for every dollar increase in government borrowing, and not just in the long run. How else could Japan have run huge deficits for decades the lowest bond yields in the OECD?
Nearly a year before passage of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, this article defended the ... more Nearly a year before passage of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, this article defended the economic importance of Kemp-Roth reductions in individual tax rates against those who argued that corporate taxes mattered much more. In Jan. 1981 the author became the first tax economist on the Reagan transition team. He later served as Research Director the Kemp Tax Reform Commission.
Spanish translation of Alan Reynolds, "Crises and Recoveries: Multinational Failures and National... more Spanish translation of Alan Reynolds, "Crises and Recoveries: Multinational Failures and National Successes" from The Cato Journal, Vol 23 No.1 Spring/Summer 2003.
Case studies examine 11 countries whose economies (1) suffered falling output and rising inflation while following IMF programs as a condition of receiving loans, but (2) subsequently recovered by adopting quite different policies such as lower marginal tax rates, lower tariffs and stable exchange rates.
Countries studied include Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, S.Korea, Jamaica, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, Russia and Turkey.
Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels were astute critics of big governments and the high taxes needed to f... more Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels were astute critics of big governments and the high taxes needed to finance them. Both had a keen appreeciation of the power of taxation to destroy incentives and economic progress, as did later followers such as Leon Trotsky.
Written in 1981 by the late Robert Keleher of the St. Louis Fed (after some discussion with Reyno... more Written in 1981 by the late Robert Keleher of the St. Louis Fed (after some discussion with Reynolds), this was one of the earliest surveys of the evidence then available to support the hypothesis that macroeconomic incentives from marginal tax rates have frequently had a significant impact on macroeconomic results --notably the pace of economic growth within countries (time series) and between countries and states (in cross-section comparisons).
My friend and sometime co-author the late Meyer Louis Burstein held a J.D. and PhD in economics f... more My friend and sometime co-author the late Meyer Louis Burstein held a J.D. and PhD in economics from the University of Chicago, where he studied under Milton Friedeman and Frank Knight. http://prabook.org/web/person-view.html?profileId=953256 His many books remain in high demand on Amazon http://www.amazon.com/M.-L.-Burstein/e/B001JRVHIM I had nothing to do with the writing, but the author left me the only known copy. I will post other chapters here and hope to publish the whole volume as an e-book on Amazon, with his wife's blessing.
Entitled "Pillars of Prosperity," this is mainly a historical survey of countries which made rapi... more Entitled "Pillars of Prosperity," this is mainly a historical survey of countries which made rapid recoveries from economic disasters. Several of these episodes have been called "economic miracles," but they all had several features in common -- notably improved monetary stability, reasonably unrestricted trade, and moderate taxation of incremental (marginal) income.
There is a condensed version which may be posted later. (Both suffered some loss of readability in the conversion from vintage Word Perfect to a modern version of Microsoft Word).
States, like nations, need competitive tax rates to prevent an exodus of skilled people and entre... more States, like nations, need competitive tax rates to prevent an exodus of skilled people and entrepreneurs (a "brain drain") and an exodus of investment business("capital flight"). New Jersey doubled its top income tax rate in 1991, to 7% from 3.5%, and the state economy and revenue soon suffered. This papere reputedly had some influence on Gov. Whitman, who reduced most tax rates in 1994-96 but left the top rate at 6.37%. The top tax rate has been to 8.97% since 2004, and the state economy suffers more than most, so this paper remains quite relevant to New Jersey (which ranks #50 in the Tax Foundation business climate index) but also to all other high-tax states.
Paper presented at an April 14, 1997 conference, "Should Congress Direct the Federal Reserve to S... more Paper presented at an April 14, 1997 conference, "Should Congress Direct the Federal Reserve to Stabliize Prices?" sponsored by the Durrell Institute, Shenandoah University.
Evaluates (1) various proposed targets for the Federal Reserve to aim at and (2) various instruments ostensibly designed to hit those targets with some precision.
A paper presented at the Fraser Institute, Vacouver B.C., September 15, 2000.
It rev... more A paper presented at the Fraser Institute, Vacouver B.C., September 15, 2000. It revisits the author's experience advocating, successfully, reducing Australia's tax rate on realized capital by half. The country's prior experience with a CGT tax rate up to 48.5% caused unproductive distortions and disincentive while raising very little revenue. Opponents of reform claimed high-income households paid 80% of the CGT, but the true figure was 12-18%. They claimed official U.S. estimates about the near-zero revenue losses from a much lower tax rate were greatly different from my own, though this was also untrue. See https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=4472
This paper includes a detailed critique of a flawed 1995 study of the 1980-83 U.S. experience by Len Burman, and a book on capital gains by the same author. There is also discussion of the alleged "fairness" of tax rates so high that they are rarely paid.
This is one of six expert papers commissioned by The National Commission on the Cost of Higher Ed... more This is one of six expert papers commissioned by The National Commission on the Cost of Higher Education. The final report "Straight Talk About College Costs and Prices" was submitted to President Clinton on January 21, 1998.
A small sample from the statistical observations:
1. Ups and downs in the inflation in higher education prices have been similar to inflation in other (labor-intensive) services. 2. Comparing a mean average of tuition sticker prices with median income is misleading in many ways. 3. Schools combining nominally high tuition with deep discounts (aid) are acting like a price-discriminating cartel. 4. Federal grants to institutions boosted research at the expense of teaching. Smaller aid to students tends to displace other funding and aggravates non-price rationing
Testimony before House Republican Study Committee, Washington D.C., April 1, 1987.
Blames leng... more Testimony before House Republican Study Committee, Washington D.C., April 1, 1987.
Blames length and depth of 1982 recession on "excessive tightening of Federal Reserve Policy from February through July of 1982...[and]a mypopic decision to postpopne any tax relief for individuals until 1983-84."
Shows faster growth of real revenues in U.S. & U.K. than in countries with higher top tax rates.
Shows govt borrowing was not large relative to govt investment in the USA. Also, intl data shown to be inconsistent with "twin deficits" theoretical link between budget and current account deficits.
A 2003 presentation at Vanderbilt University on the history of the phrase "supply-side economics"... more A 2003 presentation at Vanderbilt University on the history of the phrase "supply-side economics" (from 1976), and its meaning in that historical context. Also answers some critics.
A Feb 2014 IMF staff discussion paper by Berg and Tsangarides used a scatter diagram of 153 count... more A Feb 2014 IMF staff discussion paper by Berg and Tsangarides used a scatter diagram of 153 countries to suggest inequality is bad for economic growth and redistribution harmless. Confining the same experiment to G-20 countries reverses those conclusions.
In the twentieth century, many countries emerged from economic disaster and began to enjoy prolon... more In the twentieth century, many countries emerged from economic disaster and began to enjoy prolonged periods of prosperity. Such episodes are often called "economic miracles" because the sudden switch from economic decline to rapid economic growth appears mysterious to economists who have not examined what all such miracles had in common.
This brief economic history includes the "Poincare Miracle" of France in 1926, the "Erhard Miracle" of Germany in 1948, the Japanese miracle of 1951 to 1978, South Korea after 1980, Hong Kong, Singapore, Chile, Mauritius and many others. All such newly miraculous economies (including Russia after 2000) had two or three features in common.
This was a chapter in a 1993 Hudson Institute report prepared for the Istanbul Chamber of Commerc... more This was a chapter in a 1993 Hudson Institute report prepared for the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce.
The chapter uses experience of tax reforms in the U.S. and other countries to advocate lower marginal tax rates to improve incentives to provide extra labor and capital to the formal market economy.
Whether influenced by this paper or not, Turkey did in fact slash the top tax rate from 55% in 1994 to 45% in 1998, 40% in 1999 and 35.6% in 2005.
This1992 paper for consulting clients (institutional investors) uses evidence from countries that... more This1992 paper for consulting clients (institutional investors) uses evidence from countries that experienced large swings from budget deficit to surplus (and vice versa) to show that private saving moved in the opposite direction sufficiently to leave gross national saving unchanged.
For many years after this was written, each dollar of government borrowing was widely assumed to subtract one dollar from overall national saving.
By 2015, the Congressional Budget Office conceded that "private saving rises by 43 cents for every one-dollar increase in federal borrowing in the long run, leaving a net decline of 57 cents in national saving.” This paper suggest the rise in private saving may be closer to 100 cents for every dollar increase in government borrowing, and not just in the long run. How else could Japan have run huge deficits for decades the lowest bond yields in the OECD?
Introduction to economist Alan Reynolds' 2001 book evaluating the dubious logic and evidence behi... more Introduction to economist Alan Reynolds' 2001 book evaluating the dubious logic and evidence behind the "findings of fact" sustaining New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's antitrust complaint against Microsoft. https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/atr/legacy/2006/04/11/msjudge.pdf
"The biggest problem with the Findings. . . is not erroneous facts but erroneous technological theories, speculations, and forecasts."
Conference on 14 Oc 1986 directed by Manhattan Institute and Adam Smith Institute. Tom Behell, A... more Conference on 14 Oc 1986 directed by Manhattan Institute and Adam Smith Institute. Tom Behell, Alan Reynolds, Warren Brookes, George Gilder, James Gwartney, Lawrence Lindsey, Roger Waud, George von Furstenberg.
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Papers by Alan Reynolds
Case studies examine 11 countries whose economies (1) suffered falling output and rising inflation while following IMF programs as a condition of receiving loans, but (2) subsequently recovered by adopting quite
different policies such as lower marginal tax rates, lower tariffs and stable exchange rates.
Countries studied include Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, S.Korea, Jamaica, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, Russia and Turkey.
I had nothing to do with the writing, but the author left me the only known copy. I will post other chapters here and hope to publish the whole volume as an e-book on Amazon, with his wife's blessing.
There is a condensed version which may be posted later. (Both suffered some loss of readability in the conversion from vintage Word Perfect to a modern version of Microsoft Word).
New Jersey doubled its top income tax rate in 1991, to 7% from 3.5%, and the state economy and revenue soon suffered. This papere reputedly had some influence on Gov. Whitman, who reduced most tax rates in 1994-96 but left the top rate at 6.37%. The top tax rate has been to 8.97% since 2004, and the state economy suffers more than most, so this paper remains quite relevant to New Jersey (which ranks #50 in the Tax Foundation business climate index) but also to all other high-tax states.
Evaluates (1) various proposed targets for the Federal Reserve to aim at and (2) various instruments ostensibly designed to hit those targets with some precision.
It revisits the author's experience advocating, successfully, reducing Australia's tax rate on realized capital by half. The country's prior experience with a CGT tax rate up to 48.5% caused unproductive distortions and disincentive while raising very little revenue.
Opponents of reform claimed high-income households paid 80% of the CGT, but the true figure was 12-18%. They claimed official U.S. estimates about the near-zero revenue losses from a much lower tax rate were greatly different from my own, though this was also untrue. See https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=4472
This paper includes a detailed critique of a flawed 1995 study of the 1980-83 U.S. experience by Len Burman, and a book on capital gains by the same author. There is also discussion of the alleged "fairness" of tax rates so high that they are rarely paid.
A small sample from the statistical observations:
1. Ups and downs in the inflation in higher education prices have been similar to inflation in other (labor-intensive) services.
2. Comparing a mean average of tuition sticker prices with median income is misleading in many ways.
3. Schools combining nominally high tuition with deep discounts (aid) are acting like a price-discriminating cartel.
4. Federal grants to institutions boosted research at the expense of teaching. Smaller aid to students tends to displace other funding and aggravates non-price rationing
Blames length and depth of 1982 recession on "excessive tightening of Federal Reserve Policy from February through July of 1982...[and]a mypopic decision to postpopne any tax relief for individuals until 1983-84."
Shows faster growth of real revenues in U.S. & U.K. than in countries with higher top tax rates.
Shows govt borrowing was not large relative to govt investment in the USA. Also, intl data shown to be inconsistent with "twin deficits" theoretical link between budget and current account deficits.
This brief economic history includes the "Poincare Miracle" of France in 1926, the "Erhard Miracle" of Germany in 1948, the Japanese miracle of 1951 to 1978, South Korea after 1980, Hong Kong, Singapore, Chile, Mauritius and many others. All such newly miraculous economies (including Russia after 2000) had two or three features in common.
The chapter uses experience of tax reforms in the U.S. and other countries to advocate lower marginal tax rates to improve incentives to provide extra labor and capital to the formal market economy.
Whether influenced by this paper or not, Turkey did in fact slash the top tax rate from 55% in 1994 to 45% in 1998, 40% in 1999 and 35.6% in 2005.
For many years after this was written, each dollar of government borrowing was widely assumed to subtract one dollar from overall national saving.
By 2015, the Congressional Budget Office conceded that "private saving rises by 43 cents for every one-dollar increase in federal borrowing in the long run, leaving a net decline of 57 cents in national saving.” This paper suggest the rise in private saving may be closer to 100 cents for every dollar increase in government borrowing, and not just in the long run. How else could Japan have run huge deficits for decades the lowest bond yields in the OECD?
Case studies examine 11 countries whose economies (1) suffered falling output and rising inflation while following IMF programs as a condition of receiving loans, but (2) subsequently recovered by adopting quite
different policies such as lower marginal tax rates, lower tariffs and stable exchange rates.
Countries studied include Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, S.Korea, Jamaica, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, Russia and Turkey.
I had nothing to do with the writing, but the author left me the only known copy. I will post other chapters here and hope to publish the whole volume as an e-book on Amazon, with his wife's blessing.
There is a condensed version which may be posted later. (Both suffered some loss of readability in the conversion from vintage Word Perfect to a modern version of Microsoft Word).
New Jersey doubled its top income tax rate in 1991, to 7% from 3.5%, and the state economy and revenue soon suffered. This papere reputedly had some influence on Gov. Whitman, who reduced most tax rates in 1994-96 but left the top rate at 6.37%. The top tax rate has been to 8.97% since 2004, and the state economy suffers more than most, so this paper remains quite relevant to New Jersey (which ranks #50 in the Tax Foundation business climate index) but also to all other high-tax states.
Evaluates (1) various proposed targets for the Federal Reserve to aim at and (2) various instruments ostensibly designed to hit those targets with some precision.
It revisits the author's experience advocating, successfully, reducing Australia's tax rate on realized capital by half. The country's prior experience with a CGT tax rate up to 48.5% caused unproductive distortions and disincentive while raising very little revenue.
Opponents of reform claimed high-income households paid 80% of the CGT, but the true figure was 12-18%. They claimed official U.S. estimates about the near-zero revenue losses from a much lower tax rate were greatly different from my own, though this was also untrue. See https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=4472
This paper includes a detailed critique of a flawed 1995 study of the 1980-83 U.S. experience by Len Burman, and a book on capital gains by the same author. There is also discussion of the alleged "fairness" of tax rates so high that they are rarely paid.
A small sample from the statistical observations:
1. Ups and downs in the inflation in higher education prices have been similar to inflation in other (labor-intensive) services.
2. Comparing a mean average of tuition sticker prices with median income is misleading in many ways.
3. Schools combining nominally high tuition with deep discounts (aid) are acting like a price-discriminating cartel.
4. Federal grants to institutions boosted research at the expense of teaching. Smaller aid to students tends to displace other funding and aggravates non-price rationing
Blames length and depth of 1982 recession on "excessive tightening of Federal Reserve Policy from February through July of 1982...[and]a mypopic decision to postpopne any tax relief for individuals until 1983-84."
Shows faster growth of real revenues in U.S. & U.K. than in countries with higher top tax rates.
Shows govt borrowing was not large relative to govt investment in the USA. Also, intl data shown to be inconsistent with "twin deficits" theoretical link between budget and current account deficits.
This brief economic history includes the "Poincare Miracle" of France in 1926, the "Erhard Miracle" of Germany in 1948, the Japanese miracle of 1951 to 1978, South Korea after 1980, Hong Kong, Singapore, Chile, Mauritius and many others. All such newly miraculous economies (including Russia after 2000) had two or three features in common.
The chapter uses experience of tax reforms in the U.S. and other countries to advocate lower marginal tax rates to improve incentives to provide extra labor and capital to the formal market economy.
Whether influenced by this paper or not, Turkey did in fact slash the top tax rate from 55% in 1994 to 45% in 1998, 40% in 1999 and 35.6% in 2005.
For many years after this was written, each dollar of government borrowing was widely assumed to subtract one dollar from overall national saving.
By 2015, the Congressional Budget Office conceded that "private saving rises by 43 cents for every one-dollar increase in federal borrowing in the long run, leaving a net decline of 57 cents in national saving.” This paper suggest the rise in private saving may be closer to 100 cents for every dollar increase in government borrowing, and not just in the long run. How else could Japan have run huge deficits for decades the lowest bond yields in the OECD?
"The biggest problem with the Findings. . . is not erroneous facts but erroneous technological theories, speculations, and forecasts."