This chapter is devoted to models for transport, trade and land use decisions. They complement tr... more This chapter is devoted to models for transport, trade and land use decisions. They complement traditional benefit-cost analyses (BCA) insofar as they allow describing the distribution of effects and coping with market imperfections such as externalities and market powers. They can be classified according to several types: dynamic or static, taking into account or not the land market, and also ranked according to their degree of complexity. Their use for BCA is presented, along with some recommendations on how they can help to assess projects and schemes.
The text explores the optimal infrastructure charges of an unbundled activity where the infrastru... more The text explores the optimal infrastructure charges of an unbundled activity where the infrastructure manager sells the use of the infrastructure to operators providing services to a downstream market made up of atomistic customers. This situation has been widely analysed under the assumption that the upstream market is competitive, but more rarely in the case of imperfect competition. Typical examples are the railways activity in Europe and air transport. Various market structures are considered, illustrated by situations encountered in the transport field: a single mode operated by a single operator, two operators competing within the same mode, and two modes competing in a Bertrand way. In each case, situations are analysed using analytic formulae with a simplified demand function and a simplified cost function, and performing simulations with sensible parameter values drawn from current average situations. The main result is that the analysed imperfections make a dramatic depar...
Preliminary and incomplete Urban public transport services are delivered in France through the us... more Preliminary and incomplete Urban public transport services are delivered in France through the use of competitive tenderings, with firms participating in city-specific auctions. The market has been formerly described, based on pre-2005 data, as a failure of liberalization, with a large incumbency bias and little competi-tion. This paper studies the recent trends in competition on this market by using a detailed database at the firm level. We find that, after 2005, competition significantly strengthened, with auctions attracting more bids and a decreasing rate of renewal for incumbents. In addition to this mar-ket overview, we study the determinants of participation and success in auctions. In particular, we investigate whether the city council’s political ideology has an influence on auction outcomes. We find that turnover is higher under right-wing councils and so that incumbents face a lower probability of winning in these cities.
Le rapport L'evaluation socioeconomique des investissements publics confie a Emile Quinet par... more Le rapport L'evaluation socioeconomique des investissements publics confie a Emile Quinet par le Commissariat general a la strategie et a la prospective met a jour et enrichit la methodologie d'evaluation socioeconomique des investissements publics, etudie les conditions d'une bonne appropriation de ses resultats par les decideurs, et etend le calcul socioeconomique au-dela de ses champs d'application traditionnels que sont les transports et l'energie. En cette periode de fortes contraintes budgetaires, probablement amenee a se prolonger dans les annees a venir, il est plus que jamais necessaire de rationaliser les depenses publiques, qu'elles soient de fonctionnement ou d'investissement. Les depenses publiques d'investissement representent environ 15 % des investissements totaux de notre pays. Elles concernent des secteurs aussi essentiels pour le developpement de notre societe que les transports, l'energie, la sante ou l'education. Ces investissements faconneront sur le long terme, parfois pour plusieurs siecles, l'aspect de notre pays, la qualite de son environnement, sa capacite a affronter les defis futurs. C'est dire combien les decisions doivent etre prises de la facon la plus eclairee possible, en evaluant au mieux les avantages qu'ils vont procurer et les couts qu'ils vont engendrer, d'autant que leur financement repose en large partie sur l'epargne publique nationale, ressource rare en general et encore plus dans la periode actuelle. Ce n'est donc pas sans raison que l'Etat s'est preoccupe depuis longtemps d'elaborer et de mettre regulierement a jour les methodes permettant d'assurer ces evaluations. La commission qui a realise les travaux presentes dans ce rapport L'evaluation socioeconomique des investissements publics se situe dans la lignee d'une longue tradition, initiee par les rapports etablis par Marcel Boiteux en 1994 et 2001. Ces rapports ont fixe la doctrine generale et ont permis des avancees sur des sujets particuliers : le taux d'actualisation, la prise en compte du risque, la valeur tutelaire du carbone. Les principes sur lesquels elle s'appuie sont simples et de construction ancienne. Ils consistent a jauger les consequences de chaque projet sur l'ensemble de la collectivite nationale, en evaluant les gains de productivite ou de capacite de production apportes aux entreprises ainsi que les supplements de consommation marchande et les ameliorations de qualite de vie procures aux citoyens, et en permettant de comparer ces effets aux couts de l'investissement. - See more at: http://www.strategie.gouv.fr/publications/levaluation-socioeconomique-investissements-publics-tome1#sthash.YjQcZR3S.dpuf
Les transports sont a l'origine de nombreuses atteintes a l'environnement, au sujet desqu... more Les transports sont a l'origine de nombreuses atteintes a l'environnement, au sujet desquelles s'expriment les opinions les plus extremes, a travers des debats ou la passion et les jugements a priori prennent une place toujours plus grande, aboutissant alors a des decisions incoherentes et onereuses. La necessite d'introduire davantage de methode dans les debats et dans la decision finale est reconnue par les responsables, et de nombreuses etudes sont menees dans ce but. Les domaines les plus explores concernent les effets des transports en matiere de bruit et de pollution de l'air, ou des evaluations monetaires des dommages causes par les transports ont ete proposes dans differents pays. Mais les enseignements en sont controverses; les uns mettent en cause le niveau actuel des connaissances concernant les dommages, d'autres contestent la possibilite de traduire ces dommages en termes monetaires, d'autres enfin utilisent les resultats de facon erronee en ...
Comptes Rendus De L Academie Des Sciences Serie Iii-sciences De La Vie-life Sciences, 2001
The public decision-making methods in transport are based on cost–benefit analysis, by which the ... more The public decision-making methods in transport are based on cost–benefit analysis, by which the consequences of the decision (standards for vehicles, new infrastructures…) are converted in monetary amounts and compared to the cost of implementation of the decision. But some of these consequences, especially those related to environment, are not directly expressed in monetary terms. The article aims at offsetting this difficulty in the case of noise. The possible methods for getting money values of noise are presented; it is shown that the estimates to which they lead are coherent and consistent. Then a comparison is made between the present procedures and the procedures which could be implemented, and it is shown that large gains of efficiency could be obtained.
Investment decision rules in risk situations have been extensively analyzed for firms. Most resea... more Investment decision rules in risk situations have been extensively analyzed for firms. Most research focus on financial options and the wide range of methods based on dynamic programming currently used by firms to decide on whether and when to implement an irreversible investment under uncertainty. The situation is quite different for public investments, which are decided and largely funded by public authorities. These investments are assessed by public authorities, not through market criteria, but through public Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) procedures. Strangely enough, these procedures pay little attention to risk and uncertainty. The present text aims at filling this gap. We address the classic problem of whether and when an investment should be implemented. This stopping time problem is established in a framework where the discount rate is typically linked toGDP, which follows a Brownian motion, and where the benefits and cost of implementation follow linked Brownian motions. We ...
Le concept de cout social de l'environnement est l'objet de nombreuses interpretations. O... more Le concept de cout social de l'environnement est l'objet de nombreuses interpretations. On rappelle d'abord ces interpretations, puis on propose une definition fondee sur la consideration des courbes d'offre et de demande, reliee a la notion de surplus au sens de Dupuit. Puis une application de la definition proposee est fournie pour le cas du transport routier
La theorie economique s'est abondamment penchee sur la tarification des externalites (congest... more La theorie economique s'est abondamment penchee sur la tarification des externalites (congestion, environnement, securite). Elle fournit des recommandations precises a toutes les situations dans lesquelles se trouvent les decideurs et a tous les objectifs qu'ils peuvent chercher a atteindre : optimum premier, recherche d'un equilibre budgetaire, maximation du profit, etc. Ces recommandations, qui font toutes intervenir le concept central de cout marginal, ne sont guere mises en oeuvre dans la pratique. L'article en analyse les raisons : des calculs complexes et manipulables, des outils inadaptes au service a taxer, des tarifs tres variables d'une situation a l'autre, des effets de repartition considerables, une multiplicite de decideurs aux objectifs divergeants. Il suggere quelques actions a mener pour attenuer ces effets et exprime l'opinion que les technologies de l'information et leur application aux transports contribueront a des progres significatifs pour la maitrise des externalites.
This chapter is devoted to models for transport, trade and land use decisions. They complement tr... more This chapter is devoted to models for transport, trade and land use decisions. They complement traditional benefit-cost analyses (BCA) insofar as they allow describing the distribution of effects and coping with market imperfections such as externalities and market powers. They can be classified according to several types: dynamic or static, taking into account or not the land market, and also ranked according to their degree of complexity. Their use for BCA is presented, along with some recommendations on how they can help to assess projects and schemes.
The text explores the optimal infrastructure charges of an unbundled activity where the infrastru... more The text explores the optimal infrastructure charges of an unbundled activity where the infrastructure manager sells the use of the infrastructure to operators providing services to a downstream market made up of atomistic customers. This situation has been widely analysed under the assumption that the upstream market is competitive, but more rarely in the case of imperfect competition. Typical examples are the railways activity in Europe and air transport. Various market structures are considered, illustrated by situations encountered in the transport field: a single mode operated by a single operator, two operators competing within the same mode, and two modes competing in a Bertrand way. In each case, situations are analysed using analytic formulae with a simplified demand function and a simplified cost function, and performing simulations with sensible parameter values drawn from current average situations. The main result is that the analysed imperfections make a dramatic depar...
Preliminary and incomplete Urban public transport services are delivered in France through the us... more Preliminary and incomplete Urban public transport services are delivered in France through the use of competitive tenderings, with firms participating in city-specific auctions. The market has been formerly described, based on pre-2005 data, as a failure of liberalization, with a large incumbency bias and little competi-tion. This paper studies the recent trends in competition on this market by using a detailed database at the firm level. We find that, after 2005, competition significantly strengthened, with auctions attracting more bids and a decreasing rate of renewal for incumbents. In addition to this mar-ket overview, we study the determinants of participation and success in auctions. In particular, we investigate whether the city council’s political ideology has an influence on auction outcomes. We find that turnover is higher under right-wing councils and so that incumbents face a lower probability of winning in these cities.
Le rapport L'evaluation socioeconomique des investissements publics confie a Emile Quinet par... more Le rapport L'evaluation socioeconomique des investissements publics confie a Emile Quinet par le Commissariat general a la strategie et a la prospective met a jour et enrichit la methodologie d'evaluation socioeconomique des investissements publics, etudie les conditions d'une bonne appropriation de ses resultats par les decideurs, et etend le calcul socioeconomique au-dela de ses champs d'application traditionnels que sont les transports et l'energie. En cette periode de fortes contraintes budgetaires, probablement amenee a se prolonger dans les annees a venir, il est plus que jamais necessaire de rationaliser les depenses publiques, qu'elles soient de fonctionnement ou d'investissement. Les depenses publiques d'investissement representent environ 15 % des investissements totaux de notre pays. Elles concernent des secteurs aussi essentiels pour le developpement de notre societe que les transports, l'energie, la sante ou l'education. Ces investissements faconneront sur le long terme, parfois pour plusieurs siecles, l'aspect de notre pays, la qualite de son environnement, sa capacite a affronter les defis futurs. C'est dire combien les decisions doivent etre prises de la facon la plus eclairee possible, en evaluant au mieux les avantages qu'ils vont procurer et les couts qu'ils vont engendrer, d'autant que leur financement repose en large partie sur l'epargne publique nationale, ressource rare en general et encore plus dans la periode actuelle. Ce n'est donc pas sans raison que l'Etat s'est preoccupe depuis longtemps d'elaborer et de mettre regulierement a jour les methodes permettant d'assurer ces evaluations. La commission qui a realise les travaux presentes dans ce rapport L'evaluation socioeconomique des investissements publics se situe dans la lignee d'une longue tradition, initiee par les rapports etablis par Marcel Boiteux en 1994 et 2001. Ces rapports ont fixe la doctrine generale et ont permis des avancees sur des sujets particuliers : le taux d'actualisation, la prise en compte du risque, la valeur tutelaire du carbone. Les principes sur lesquels elle s'appuie sont simples et de construction ancienne. Ils consistent a jauger les consequences de chaque projet sur l'ensemble de la collectivite nationale, en evaluant les gains de productivite ou de capacite de production apportes aux entreprises ainsi que les supplements de consommation marchande et les ameliorations de qualite de vie procures aux citoyens, et en permettant de comparer ces effets aux couts de l'investissement. - See more at: http://www.strategie.gouv.fr/publications/levaluation-socioeconomique-investissements-publics-tome1#sthash.YjQcZR3S.dpuf
Les transports sont a l'origine de nombreuses atteintes a l'environnement, au sujet desqu... more Les transports sont a l'origine de nombreuses atteintes a l'environnement, au sujet desquelles s'expriment les opinions les plus extremes, a travers des debats ou la passion et les jugements a priori prennent une place toujours plus grande, aboutissant alors a des decisions incoherentes et onereuses. La necessite d'introduire davantage de methode dans les debats et dans la decision finale est reconnue par les responsables, et de nombreuses etudes sont menees dans ce but. Les domaines les plus explores concernent les effets des transports en matiere de bruit et de pollution de l'air, ou des evaluations monetaires des dommages causes par les transports ont ete proposes dans differents pays. Mais les enseignements en sont controverses; les uns mettent en cause le niveau actuel des connaissances concernant les dommages, d'autres contestent la possibilite de traduire ces dommages en termes monetaires, d'autres enfin utilisent les resultats de facon erronee en ...
Comptes Rendus De L Academie Des Sciences Serie Iii-sciences De La Vie-life Sciences, 2001
The public decision-making methods in transport are based on cost–benefit analysis, by which the ... more The public decision-making methods in transport are based on cost–benefit analysis, by which the consequences of the decision (standards for vehicles, new infrastructures…) are converted in monetary amounts and compared to the cost of implementation of the decision. But some of these consequences, especially those related to environment, are not directly expressed in monetary terms. The article aims at offsetting this difficulty in the case of noise. The possible methods for getting money values of noise are presented; it is shown that the estimates to which they lead are coherent and consistent. Then a comparison is made between the present procedures and the procedures which could be implemented, and it is shown that large gains of efficiency could be obtained.
Investment decision rules in risk situations have been extensively analyzed for firms. Most resea... more Investment decision rules in risk situations have been extensively analyzed for firms. Most research focus on financial options and the wide range of methods based on dynamic programming currently used by firms to decide on whether and when to implement an irreversible investment under uncertainty. The situation is quite different for public investments, which are decided and largely funded by public authorities. These investments are assessed by public authorities, not through market criteria, but through public Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) procedures. Strangely enough, these procedures pay little attention to risk and uncertainty. The present text aims at filling this gap. We address the classic problem of whether and when an investment should be implemented. This stopping time problem is established in a framework where the discount rate is typically linked toGDP, which follows a Brownian motion, and where the benefits and cost of implementation follow linked Brownian motions. We ...
Le concept de cout social de l'environnement est l'objet de nombreuses interpretations. O... more Le concept de cout social de l'environnement est l'objet de nombreuses interpretations. On rappelle d'abord ces interpretations, puis on propose une definition fondee sur la consideration des courbes d'offre et de demande, reliee a la notion de surplus au sens de Dupuit. Puis une application de la definition proposee est fournie pour le cas du transport routier
La theorie economique s'est abondamment penchee sur la tarification des externalites (congest... more La theorie economique s'est abondamment penchee sur la tarification des externalites (congestion, environnement, securite). Elle fournit des recommandations precises a toutes les situations dans lesquelles se trouvent les decideurs et a tous les objectifs qu'ils peuvent chercher a atteindre : optimum premier, recherche d'un equilibre budgetaire, maximation du profit, etc. Ces recommandations, qui font toutes intervenir le concept central de cout marginal, ne sont guere mises en oeuvre dans la pratique. L'article en analyse les raisons : des calculs complexes et manipulables, des outils inadaptes au service a taxer, des tarifs tres variables d'une situation a l'autre, des effets de repartition considerables, une multiplicite de decideurs aux objectifs divergeants. Il suggere quelques actions a mener pour attenuer ces effets et exprime l'opinion que les technologies de l'information et leur application aux transports contribueront a des progres significatifs pour la maitrise des externalites.
Uploads
Papers by Emile Quinet