Papers by Per Espen Stoknes
This report describes the approach and results of a scenario workshop for a transdisciplinary tea... more This report describes the approach and results of a scenario workshop for a transdisciplinary team of 18 experts held in the project SMART PATHS in June 2017. The purpose was to span out a handful of alternative qualitative scenarios for the forthcoming global development. The specified question that the scenarios set out to shed light on is: what future external drivers are particularly decisive for the design and performance of national climate strategies in the period of 2020-2050? The work resulted in four, internally consistent, qualitative narratives of the global social, economic, technological, and political future and, in particular, of what they would mean for the external surroundings of the small, open Norwegian economy and its climate strategy ahead.
Frontiers in Environmental Science, Mar 9, 2023
This paper assesses the relevance and outcome of involving a transdisciplinary group of stakehold... more This paper assesses the relevance and outcome of involving a transdisciplinary group of stakeholders in a scenario-building research project. The scenarios describe plausible external, long-term conditions with the aim to improve the knowledge basis of a national (Norwegian) government pursuing climate policy targets for 2030 and 2050 under uncertainty. The scenario process has two phases with quite different roles for the participants. In the first, the aim is to create broad engagement and participation in exploring narratives for how key external conditions might develop and form premises for the national climate strategies for Norway. The ambition in this phase is to deduce a handful of wide-ranging and distinctly different, qualitative scenarios. The second phase is devoted to translating the narratives into quantitative projections for the Norwegian economy and greenhouse gas emissions by means of linking global and national largescale models. We claim that research projects building and using scenarios have significant potential to benefit from involving a broad stakeholder group in developing qualitative narratives. The second phase involves complex quantitative simulations. In order to provide scientific rigor and credibility to the scenarios, this phase primarily calls for scholars with technical skills, knowledge on the research frontier and modelling experience. Nevertheless, later use of these scenarios in numerical policy studies can gain from resumed researcherstakeholder interaction.
Energy research and social science, Oct 1, 2018
Over the last decade, green growth policies have drawn increasing interest. OECD, UNEP, the World... more Over the last decade, green growth policies have drawn increasing interest. OECD, UNEP, the World Bank and the EC have had several initiatives on the issue, and the Nordic countries have a special program on it. Definitions and indicator sets have been developed, though critics have pointed out that most initiatives amount to little more than a greenwashing of conventional economic growth. The paper proposes and discusses two definitions of green growth, one weak and one strong. Both build on resource-and carbon productivity measures, but whereas the weak definition requires absolute decoupling, the strong or "genuine green growth" requires sufficient decoupling to achieve science based targets for planetary boundaries. The approach is tested at country levels, starting with the climate boundary, by analyzing progress on carbon productivity ("CAPRO") in Nordic countries since 2000. Results show that so far, among Nordic countries, Sweden, Finland and Denmark have achieved genuine green growth, while Norway has not. Implications for policy and communication of green growth are discussed.
Sett at du og jeg og hele organisasjonen vi jobber med, tar klimaproblemet på alvor. Hvordan kan ... more Sett at du og jeg og hele organisasjonen vi jobber med, tar klimaproblemet på alvor. Hvordan kan et selskap, en sektor eller et helt land dokumentere at vi arbeider i tråd med klimamålet i Paris-avtalen? Hvordan kan man rapportere på en måte som ikke bare grønnvasker enkeltinitiativer, men som viser at man både skaper mer verdier og samtidig yter sin rettferdige andel på hele klima- og miljøfeltet? Dette er spørsmålet som artikkelen besvarer gjennom å gi en kort innføring i sammenhengen mellom grønn vekst og vitenskapsbaserte mål (science-based targets). Vi finner at karbonproduktiviteten må vokse med mer enn fem prosent per år for at vi skal ha ekte grønn vekst
Advances in agroecology, Nov 11, 2014
A balance sheet for the planet: How we can achieve healthy growth—more regenerative than wasteful... more A balance sheet for the planet: How we can achieve healthy growth—more regenerative than wasteful, instilling equity rather than exacerbating inequalities. In Tomorrow's Economy, Per Espen Stoknes reframes the hot-button issue of economic growth. Going beyond the usual pro-growth versus anti-growth debate, Stoknes calls for healthy growth. Healthy economic growth is more regenerative than wasteful, repairs problems rather than greenwashing them, and restores equity rather than exacerbating inequalities. Stoknes—a psychologist, economist, climate strategy researcher, and green-tech entrepreneur—shows that we already have the tools to achieve healthy growth, but our success depends on transformations in scaling innovations, government practices, and individual behaviors. Stoknes provides a compass to guide us toward the mindset, mechanisms, and possibilities of healthy growth. Stoknes explains that healthy growth reimagines value creation as resource smart and inclusive. Healthy growth is measurably profitable, more resource-productive, and more redistributive by design each year. Stoknes distinguishes between healthy and unhealthy kinds of economic growth at personal, corporate, city, national, and global levels, mapping a three-part synergy that benefits buyers, sellers, and society. He outlines actions we can take now—including the creation of a new legal entity, the benefit corporation—and lays out six steps companies can take toward healthy growth. He also describes how we can vote with our wallets to prioritize sustainability. The engaged citizen, he tells us, is central to the shift toward healing growth.
Frontiers in Environmental Science
This paper assesses the relevance and outcome of involving a transdisciplinary group of stakehold... more This paper assesses the relevance and outcome of involving a transdisciplinary group of stakeholders in a scenario-building research project. The scenarios describe plausible external, long-term conditions with the aim to improve the knowledge basis of a national (Norwegian) government pursuing climate policy targets for 2030 and 2050 under uncertainty. The scenario process has two phases with quite different roles for the participants. In the first, the aim is to create broad engagement and participation in exploring narratives for how key external conditions might develop and form premises for the national climate strategies for Norway. The ambition in this phase is to deduce a handful of wide-ranging and distinctly different, qualitative scenarios. The second phase is devoted to translating the narratives into quantitative projections for the Norwegian economy and greenhouse gas emissions by means of linking global and national largescale models. We claim that research projects b...
Global Sustainability
Non-technical summary Transformation of the world towards sustainability in line with the 2030 Ag... more Non-technical summary Transformation of the world towards sustainability in line with the 2030 Agenda requires progress on multiple dimensions of human well-being. We track development of relevant indicators for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1–7 against gross domestic product (GDP) per person in seven world regions and the world as a whole. Across the regions, we find uniform development patterns where SDGs 1–7 – and therefore main human needs – are achieved at around US$15,000 measured in 2011 US$ purchasing power parity (PPP). Technical summary How does GDP per person relate to the achievement of well-being as targeted by the 2030 Agenda? The 2030 Agenda includes global ambitions to meet human needs and aspirations. However, these need to be met within planetary boundaries. In nascent world-earth modelling, human well-being as well as global environmental impacts are linked through economic production, which is tracked by GDP. We examined historic developments on 5-year int...
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 1, 2021
The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norweg... more The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country’s economy, now facing financial climate risk and longterm declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist the transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sectoreconomic variables. We find that investing moderately in green offshore energy production can reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators of Norway's energy transitioning
This report describes the approach and results of a scenario workshop for a transdisciplinary tea... more This report describes the approach and results of a scenario workshop for a transdisciplinary team of 18 experts held in the project SMART PATHS in June 2017. The purpose was to span out a handful of alternative qualitative scenarios for the forthcoming global development. The specified question that the scenarios set out to shed light on is: what future external drivers are particularly decisive for the design and performance of national climate strategies in the period of 2020-2050? The work resulted in four, internally consistent, qualitative narratives of the global social, economic, technological, and political future and, in particular, of what they would mean for the external surroundings of the small, open Norwegian economy and its climate strategy ahead.
What will it take to bring about human prosperity and equity within a safe biosphere? If the worl... more What will it take to bring about human prosperity and equity within a safe biosphere? If the world is serious about the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and thus the need for a truly integrated prosperous and peaceful people-planet trajectory for development, what will it take to succeed? Is it at all possible to transition the world to global sustainable development as it is now defined: attaining the SDGs within Earth’s planetary boundaries (PBs) – through conventional means of economic development? What potential trade-offs and synergies do societies face when taking a truly systemic approach to the SDGs? And, most importantly, what are the transformational requirements to succeed in attaining human prosperity within a safe operating space on Earth?
Sustainability, 2021
The recent rise in climate concern among citizens worldwide is coinciding with a rising interest ... more The recent rise in climate concern among citizens worldwide is coinciding with a rising interest in agricultural climate solutions. The future scaling-up of these solutions, however, requires more knowledge about the mitigation potential, costs and financing options, including crowdfunding (CF). Our objective is to explore the driving factors behind the public’s willingness to pay for crowdfunded climate mitigation projects at the farm level. In this study, four mitigation options from the perspective of farmers were identified: solar panels on the barn roof, biogas from animal manure, drag hoses for improved manure dispersal, and the addition of biochar to soils. The study investigates the optimal characteristics of crowdfunding campaigns to finance such mitigation measures. The most influential factors on the respondents’ WTP is neither climate concern nor proximity, but instead the knowledge regarding CF, combined with how comprehensible and salient the suggested measure is. The ...
This technical note presents the bases for the Earth3 model system with a focus on how SDGs and P... more This technical note presents the bases for the Earth3 model system with a focus on how SDGs and Planetary Boundaries are assessed in the model. This includes data selection, sources, analysis and forecasting methods. We also present the threshold levels that have been chosen for the respective SDGs and Planetary Boundaries.
Energy Research & Social Science, 2018
Over the last decade, green growth policies have drawn increasing interest. OECD, UNEP, the World... more Over the last decade, green growth policies have drawn increasing interest. OECD, UNEP, the World Bank and the EC have had several initiatives on the issue, and the Nordic countries have a special program on it. Definitions and indicator sets have been developed, though critics have pointed out that most initiatives amount to little more than a greenwashing of conventional economic growth. The paper proposes and discusses two definitions of green growth, one weak and one strong. Both build on resource-and carbon productivity measures, but whereas the weak definition requires absolute decoupling, the strong or "genuine green growth" requires sufficient decoupling to achieve science based targets for planetary boundaries. The approach is tested at country levels, starting with the climate boundary, by analyzing progress on carbon productivity ("CAPRO") in Nordic countries since 2000. Results show that so far, among Nordic countries, Sweden, Finland and Denmark have achieved genuine green growth, while Norway has not. Implications for policy and communication of green growth are discussed.
We have built a simulation model (Earth3) to help answer two research questions: How many of the ... more We have built a simulation model (Earth3) to help answer two research questions: How many of the 17 UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) will be achieved by 2030? And: What will be the resulting pressure on 9 planetary boundaries (PBs)? Our tentative answer is that he world will not reach all SDGs by 2030, nor by 2050, and that the global safety margin (the buffer between the human impact and planetary boundaries) will continue to decline. Additional economic growth and extra focus on SDG achievement does not change this conclusion: transformative change seems necessary. On the methodological level our main result is “proof of concept”: we show that it is possible to combine a socio-economic model of human activity with an ecological model of the resulting environmental effects, and use this “global system model” to forecast future achievement of SDGs and the resulting pressure on PBs. But model improvement is needed to reduce the uncertainty in our answers.
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Papers by Per Espen Stoknes