Papers by Paula A N D R E A Gonzalez - Parra
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2011
A discrete time Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Treated-Recovered (SAITR) model is introduced... more A discrete time Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Treated-Recovered (SAITR) model is introduced in the context of influenza transmission. We evaluate the potential effect of control measures such as social distancing and antiviral treatment on the dynamics of a single outbreak. Optimal control theory is applied to identify the best way of reducing morbidity and mortality at a minimal cost. The problem is solved by using a discrete version of Pontryagin's maximum principle. Numerical results show that dual strategies have stronger impact in the reduction of the final epidemic size.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public po... more The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are willing to accept some disease risk to gain contact-related benefits. The cost-benefit trade-offs that shape contact behavior, and hence the course of epidemics, are often only implicitly incorporated in epidemiological models. This approach creates difficulty in parsing out the effects of adaptive behavior. We use an epidemiological-economic model of disease dynamics to explicitly model the trade-offs that drive person-to-person contact decisions. Results indicate that including adaptive human behavior significantly changes the predicted course of epidemics and that this inclusion has implications for parameter estimation and interpre...
Revista Colombiana de Entomología, 2018
Sugarcane stem borer (Diatraea spp) damage has increased in the Cauca River Valley (CRV) due to t... more Sugarcane stem borer (Diatraea spp) damage has increased in the Cauca River Valley (CRV) due to two new species, D. tabernella and D. busckella, which joined the two already known species, D. saccharalis and D. indigenella. A study of the bioecology of these pests and their natural enemies is presented in order to increase the effectiveness of pest management, which consists primarily of biological control. An assessment of the extent of pest damage was completed during a crop cycle in nine fields distributed along the CRV. Sampling was done in a 30x30 meter grid and 50 points were geo-referenced in each field. A registry was made of the number of damaged stalks and the number of bored internodes per stalk. Outside the grid, eggs and larvae of the pests were collected by means of a one man-hour sampling effort. The northern CRV showed the greatest levels of pest injury and a predominance of D. tabernella and D. busckella. Egg parasitism by Trichogramma exiguum reached levels of 98 %, whereas Cotesia flavipes was the most abundant larval parasitoid. There were positive correlations between the percent of damaged stalks (%TD) and crop age, and between the number of larvae and parasitized larvae. A spatial analysis of %TD showed an aggregated distribution concentrated toward the edge of the grid. Pest management protocols should be differentiated by region within the CRV in order to prioritize areas of greatest infestation.
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Papers by Paula A N D R E A Gonzalez - Parra