This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from ... more This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from outside the two dominant coalitions — in Chile from 2009 to 2017. Following a theoretical discussion that focuses on the causes of voter discontent with the political establishment, we formulate four hypotheses. We view support for alternative presidential candidates as a function of ideological detachment, declining political engagement, the economic vote, and socio-demographic shifts in the electorate. We use three pre-electoral Centro de Estudios Públicos surveys to present probit models and predicted probabilities. Our findings suggest that a distinct segment of Chilean voters is behind the rise of alternative presidential candidates. Younger and more educated voters who identify less with the traditional left-right ideological scale and political parties and suffer from economic anxiety—viewing the economy as performing well nationally while remaining pessimistic about their financi...
This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from ... more This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from outside the two dominant coalitions — in Chile from 2009 to 2017. Following a theoretical discussion that focuses on the causes of voter discontent with the political establishment, we formulate four hypotheses. We view support for alternative presidential candidates as a function of ideological detachment, declining political engagement, the economic vote, and socio-demographic shifts in the electorate. We use three pre-electoral Centro de Estudios Públicos surveys to present probit models and predicted probabilities. Our findings suggest that a distinct segment of Chilean voters is behind the rise of alternative presidential candidates. Younger and more educated voters who identify less with the traditional left-right ideological scale and political parties and suffer from economic anxiety—viewing the economy as performing well nationally while remaining pessimistic about their financi...
Chilean democracy has grown beyond what General Augusto Pinochet had in mind when the 1980 Consti... more Chilean democracy has grown beyond what General Augusto Pinochet had in mind when the 1980 Constitution was drafted. Democracy today is more consolidated and inclusive than in the past. Yet, the 1973 coup and the Pinochet dictatorship remain defining moments since democracy is built on the foundations set in place by the 1980 Constitution. Although amended several times, the Constitution reminds us that Pinochet is the father of today's Chile, and the Concertación coalition has been a deserving stepfather, helping heal deep social and political wounds and presiding over a successful period of economic growth, social inclusion, and democratic progress. 1 The election of Salvador Allende (1970), who promised a-Chilean road to socialism,‖ reflected the fact that the old democratic system was not functioning well. From 1960-1970, Chile's economic growth averaged 4.1 percent (1.7 percent per capita). Inflation averaged 27 percent in the 1960s. Chile was a profoundly unequal society in 1967: the poorest 20 percent received 3.7 percent of national income whereas the richest 20 percent received 56.5 percent (Navia 2010). The dictatorship dramatically transformed the country after 1973, and the economic model put in place remains the basis of economic policies. The constitutional order designed to keep the military in power also provided space for democracy. After an economic crisis in 1982 forced the government to accommodate the opposition, and protests threatened the regime, political 1 The Concertación has been one of the longest-lasting and most successful coalitions in Latin American history. The success of the Concertación, which governed Chile since its return to democracy in 1990, was due to its ability to devise a formula for governing based on consensus among the disparate collection of center-left political parties that opposed the military government of Augusto Pinochet. Read more:
Las explicaciones sobre los determinantes de actitudes democráticas a menudo suponen que estas ... more Las explicaciones sobre los determinantes de actitudes democráticas a menudo suponen que estas se explican por las experiencias previas con regímenes democráticos. Haití se ha caracterizado históricamente por su inestabilidad política, económica y social, incluso después del proceso de transición democrática que comenzó en 1986 y a pesar de las constantes intervenciones y ayuda humanitaria de países extranjeros. A partir de los resultados de las encuestas LAPOP entre 2006 y 2017, testeamos las hipótesis de que la evaluación del desempeño del régimen, la confianza en las instituciones del gobierno y la evaluación económica afectan la presencia de actitudes democráticas en tres dimensiones, la preferencia por el régimen democrático, justificación del cierre del legislativo por el ejecutivo y tolerancia política impactan en Haití de forma distinta que en el resto de América Latina. Con modelos de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO) reportamos que los determinantes de actitudes demo...
Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determ... more Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determinants of popular support and show a common U-shaped cyclical pattern, with higher levels of support during the honeymoon period and in the last year of the presidential term and lower support in the in-between years. Since democracy was restored in 1990, Chile has had six presidential terms. With some nuances, presidential approval has evolved following the same cyclical pattern of higher approval at the beginning and end of the administrations. Using 66 presidential approval polls from Centro de Estudios Públicos between 1990 and 2018 (N=82,984), we assess the effect of party identification and economic vote variables on presidential approval. We show that party identification matters in the approval of all presidents. We also show that economic vote variables affect presidential approval for all presidents, though the effect was stronger for Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006) on average.
master teacher en el departamento de Liberal studies de new york University. Dirección electrónic... more master teacher en el departamento de Liberal studies de new york University. Dirección electrónica: Patricio.navia@ nyu.edu. BeléN del Pozo Quevedo. alumna de cuarto año en la licenciatura de ciencia política e investigadora asistente del observatorio electoral
Ключевые слова: квадратичное программирование, оптимизация закупок, метод штрафов, множитель Лагр... more Ключевые слова: квадратичное программирование, оптимизация закупок, метод штрафов, множитель Лагранжа, обратные вычисления Аннотация Предмет. Задачи квадратичного программирования с ограничением в виде равенства, в частности задача оптимизации закупок фирмы, которая заключается в определении набора заказываемых товаров таким образом, чтобы максимально удовлетворить спрос покупателей при ограниченном бюджете. Цели. Разработка алгоритма решения задачи оптимизации закупок путем определения минимума целевой функции и корректировки полученных значений с учетом ограничения с использованием обратных вычислений. Сравнение полученных результатов с классическими методами. Методология. Использованы классические методы решения задач нелинейного программирования: метод штрафов и метод множителей Лагранжа. Также для решения оптимизационной задачи был применен аппарат обратных вычислений. Результаты. Разработан алгоритм решения задачи оптимизации закупок с помощью обратных вычислений, в котором решение, полученное путем безусловной оптимизации, корректируется с учетом ограничения на имеющиеся денежные средства. Для формирования коэффициентов относительной важности используется стоимость закупки каждого вида изделия. Рассмотрен пример оптимизации закупок с использованием разработанного алгоритма, полученный результат сопоставлен с решениями классических методов. Предложенный алгоритм может быть использован в системах поддержки принятия решений для планирования закупок организации. Кроме того, данный алгоритм может быть применен и для других оптимизационных задач квадратичного программирования представленного вида (например, выбор пунктов вложения при осуществлении инвестиционных проектов). Выводы. Представленный алгоритм на основе обратных вычислений является более простым в компьютерной реализации по сравнению с классическими методами, нахождение решение задачи оптимизации закупок сводится к решению системы уравнений. В результате проведения вычислительных экспериментов были получены одинаковые результаты для трех методов: метода на основе обратных вычислений, метода штрафов и метода множителей Лагранжа.
Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determ... more Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determinants of popular support and show a common U-shaped cyclical pattern, with higher levels of support during the honeymoon period and in the last year of the presidential term and lower support in the in-between years. Since democracy was restored in 1990, Chile has had six presidential terms. With some nuances, presidential approval has evolved following the same cyclical pattern of higher approval at the beginning and end of the administrations. Using 66 presidential approval polls from Centro de Estudios Públicos between 1990 and 2018 (N=82,984), we assess the effect of party identification and economic vote variables on presidential approval. We show that party identification matters in the approval of all presidents. We also show that economic vote variables affect presidential approval for all presidents, though the effect was stronger for Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006) on average. Resumen Los estudios sobre aprobación presidencial en las democracias consolidadas y emergentes identifican determinantes similares de apoyo popular y muestran un patrón cíclico en forma de U, con niveles más altos de apoyo al comienzo del gobierno y en el último año del período presidencial y niveles más bajos en años interme-1 This work was supported by Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica [Conicyt/Fondap/151300009] and Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico [1171051]. Replications are available upon request.
This article applies the debate on the recent emergence of outsider candidates in Latin America t... more This article applies the debate on the recent emergence of outsider candidates in Latin America to independent presidential candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami (ME-O) in Chile in 2009. We test five competing hypotheses to explain his electoral success. First, his support is explained by the consolidation of democracy, reflected by the disposition of voters to disregard the authoritarian/democratic-aligned candidates. Second, his support is explained by the decline of ideological identification, reflected by the disposition of voters to prefer nontraditional candidates. Third, his support is explained by the resurgence of the Left, reflected by the disposition of voters to identify with anti-Washington Consensus candidates. Fourth, his support is explained by the demand for quick government action, reflected in the predisposition of voters to consider candidates who will solve problems fast even if they do not ask voters for their opinions. Fifth, his support is explained by the declining support for established parties, reflected by the predisposition of voters to favor antisystemic candidates. We use survey data to test these hypotheses. We find no evidence to support the claims that ME-O fits any of the explanations. Though he was widely referred to as an outsider, his success seems to respond to national affairs rather than to a regional pattern.
It has been argued that close elections lead to policy convergence, as legislators elected by a s... more It has been argued that close elections lead to policy convergence, as legislators elected by a small margin are more likely to adopt moderate policy positions (Downs 1957). However, Lee, Moretti, and Butler (2004) find that electoral competition does not affect legislators’ policy preferences in the United States, questioning the median voter paradigm. To help to discern this paradox, we estimate the effect of close elections on legislators’ subsequent policy positions under different electoral rules. With Chile's two-seat open-list proportional representation system, we exploit the dynamics of within-coalition competition to test both hypotheses. Using the margin of victory in 383 races in four different parliamentary elections and 3,741 roll-call votes for the 120-seat Chamber of Deputies from 1998 to 2014, we find that electoral competition did not lead to policy convergence under either the center-left Concertación coalition or the rightist Alianza coalition. We contend tha...
Artículos CienCia PolítiCa Incumbency AdvAntAge And tenure Length In the chILeAn chAmber of deput... more Artículos CienCia PolítiCa Incumbency AdvAntAge And tenure Length In the chILeAn chAmber of deputIes, 1989-2009* 1
In this article we examine the presence of bias in Chile's two main daily newspapers, El Mercurio... more In this article we examine the presence of bias in Chile's two main daily newspapers, El Mercurio and La Tercera, both of which have historically been associated with the political right. We analyse their principal headlines in the first 100 days of rule of presidents Eduardo
Voters normally split their tickets when they do not feel sufficiently represented by only one po... more Voters normally split their tickets when they do not feel sufficiently represented by only one political party or when politicians cultivate a personal vote regardless of party identification. Yet, voters might also split their tickets when they feel indifferent about like-minded parties or individual candidates. The authors distinguish between misalignment ticket-splitting (MATS), caused by a mismatch between voters' preferences and the alternatives offered by the party system, and mis-coordination ticket-splitting (MCTS), when like-minded parties offer choices equally acceptable to voters. MCTS is likely to occur under proportional representation systems with multiple parties. The authors apply our categorization to concurrent presidential and legislative elections in Chile in 2005 and 2009. There was plenty of MCTS but little MATS. The authors suggest that the two forms should be separately analyzed as they are reflective of different political phenomena.
* este artículo recibió financiamiento del proyecto Fondecyt nº 1085243. agradecemos a los evalua... more * este artículo recibió financiamiento del proyecto Fondecyt nº 1085243. agradecemos a los evaluadores anónimos por sus comentarios. Los errores y omisiones son exclusiva responsabilidad de los autores. ¿Consumo luego pienso, o pienso y luego Consumo? Consumo de medios, predisposiCión polítiCa, perCepCión eConómiCa y aprobaCión presidenCial en Chile*
Este trabajo muestra que la participación electoral en Chile hoy no es menor a la observada hasta... more Este trabajo muestra que la participación electoral en Chile hoy no es menor a la observada hasta antes de 1973. La alta tasa de participación en 1988 representa una comprensible anomalía. Después de 15 años sin votar, los chilenos participaron entusiastamente en el plebiscito. Pero a partir de entonces, la tasa de participación tendió a la baja hasta llegar a fines de los 90 a niveles similares a los observados antes del quiebre democrático de 1973. Usando un marco teórico que aborda la participación como una función basada en costos y beneficios, discute la participación electoral en Chile en un contexto internacional, subrayando las diferencias y similitudes de los patrones existentes antes de 1973 y después de 1988, enfatizando tanto lógicas de inscripción como de participación electoral. Al hacerlo, aborda la tensión que existe entre un electorado estable y un número creciente de personas no inscritas para votar. Por último, identifica algunas propuestas que permitirían eliminar las trabas institucionales que han llevado a la formación de dos clases de adultos, aquellos que estando inscritos están obligados a votar y los que al no estar inscritos no pueden sufragar. Puntualmente, argumenta que al automatizar la inscripción se puede incorporar a todos sin tener siquiera que entrar a discutir la obligatoriedad del voto.
Documents published in the IDB working paper series are of the highest academic and editorial qua... more Documents published in the IDB working paper series are of the highest academic and editorial quality. All have been peer reviewed by recognized experts in their field and professionally edited. The information and opinions presented in these publications are entirely those of the author(s), and no endorsement by the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the countries they represent is expressed or implied.
This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or s... more This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae, and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand, or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material.
Este trabajo explora las causas de la desproporcionalidad-la diferencia entre el porcentaje de es... more Este trabajo explora las causas de la desproporcionalidad-la diferencia entre el porcentaje de escaños y el porcentaje de votos obtenidos por un partido-en 18 países de América Latina, evaluando el efecto de cuatro variables explicativas. La primera parte presenta el diseño de la investigación, los enfoques teóricos que fundamentan los estudios sobre sistemas electorales y una revisión de literatura donde se conceptualiza tanto la desproporcionalidad como las variables independientes. La segunda parte entrega un análisis sobre los sistemas electorales y el comportamiento de las variables en cuestión en Latinoamérica. La tercera parte contiene el análisis inferencial que mide el impacto de las variables independientes sobre la desproporcionalidad. Postulamos que existe una relación directa entre la magnitud de distrito y la desproporcionalidad. Adicionalmente, el "rango de exclusión"-es decir, la cantidad de electores que potencialmente pueden quedar sin representación debido a la magnitud de distrito y a la fórmula de conversión de votos en escaños-también incrementa la desproporcionalidad. Los sistemas electorales proporcionales producen menos distorsión entre porcentaje de votos y escaños respecto a los mayoritarios o mixtos. Una baja fragmentación en el sistema de partidos-esto es, un número reducido de partidos con presencia en el Parlamento-débilmente contribuye a aumentar la desproporcionalidad. Finalmente, el malapportionment (esto es, la distribución desproporcionada de escaños respecto al número de electores de un distrito) no tiene relación estadísticamente significativa con la desproporcionalidad.
This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from ... more This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from outside the two dominant coalitions — in Chile from 2009 to 2017. Following a theoretical discussion that focuses on the causes of voter discontent with the political establishment, we formulate four hypotheses. We view support for alternative presidential candidates as a function of ideological detachment, declining political engagement, the economic vote, and socio-demographic shifts in the electorate. We use three pre-electoral Centro de Estudios Públicos surveys to present probit models and predicted probabilities. Our findings suggest that a distinct segment of Chilean voters is behind the rise of alternative presidential candidates. Younger and more educated voters who identify less with the traditional left-right ideological scale and political parties and suffer from economic anxiety—viewing the economy as performing well nationally while remaining pessimistic about their financi...
This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from ... more This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from outside the two dominant coalitions — in Chile from 2009 to 2017. Following a theoretical discussion that focuses on the causes of voter discontent with the political establishment, we formulate four hypotheses. We view support for alternative presidential candidates as a function of ideological detachment, declining political engagement, the economic vote, and socio-demographic shifts in the electorate. We use three pre-electoral Centro de Estudios Públicos surveys to present probit models and predicted probabilities. Our findings suggest that a distinct segment of Chilean voters is behind the rise of alternative presidential candidates. Younger and more educated voters who identify less with the traditional left-right ideological scale and political parties and suffer from economic anxiety—viewing the economy as performing well nationally while remaining pessimistic about their financi...
Chilean democracy has grown beyond what General Augusto Pinochet had in mind when the 1980 Consti... more Chilean democracy has grown beyond what General Augusto Pinochet had in mind when the 1980 Constitution was drafted. Democracy today is more consolidated and inclusive than in the past. Yet, the 1973 coup and the Pinochet dictatorship remain defining moments since democracy is built on the foundations set in place by the 1980 Constitution. Although amended several times, the Constitution reminds us that Pinochet is the father of today's Chile, and the Concertación coalition has been a deserving stepfather, helping heal deep social and political wounds and presiding over a successful period of economic growth, social inclusion, and democratic progress. 1 The election of Salvador Allende (1970), who promised a-Chilean road to socialism,‖ reflected the fact that the old democratic system was not functioning well. From 1960-1970, Chile's economic growth averaged 4.1 percent (1.7 percent per capita). Inflation averaged 27 percent in the 1960s. Chile was a profoundly unequal society in 1967: the poorest 20 percent received 3.7 percent of national income whereas the richest 20 percent received 56.5 percent (Navia 2010). The dictatorship dramatically transformed the country after 1973, and the economic model put in place remains the basis of economic policies. The constitutional order designed to keep the military in power also provided space for democracy. After an economic crisis in 1982 forced the government to accommodate the opposition, and protests threatened the regime, political 1 The Concertación has been one of the longest-lasting and most successful coalitions in Latin American history. The success of the Concertación, which governed Chile since its return to democracy in 1990, was due to its ability to devise a formula for governing based on consensus among the disparate collection of center-left political parties that opposed the military government of Augusto Pinochet. Read more:
Las explicaciones sobre los determinantes de actitudes democráticas a menudo suponen que estas ... more Las explicaciones sobre los determinantes de actitudes democráticas a menudo suponen que estas se explican por las experiencias previas con regímenes democráticos. Haití se ha caracterizado históricamente por su inestabilidad política, económica y social, incluso después del proceso de transición democrática que comenzó en 1986 y a pesar de las constantes intervenciones y ayuda humanitaria de países extranjeros. A partir de los resultados de las encuestas LAPOP entre 2006 y 2017, testeamos las hipótesis de que la evaluación del desempeño del régimen, la confianza en las instituciones del gobierno y la evaluación económica afectan la presencia de actitudes democráticas en tres dimensiones, la preferencia por el régimen democrático, justificación del cierre del legislativo por el ejecutivo y tolerancia política impactan en Haití de forma distinta que en el resto de América Latina. Con modelos de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO) reportamos que los determinantes de actitudes demo...
Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determ... more Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determinants of popular support and show a common U-shaped cyclical pattern, with higher levels of support during the honeymoon period and in the last year of the presidential term and lower support in the in-between years. Since democracy was restored in 1990, Chile has had six presidential terms. With some nuances, presidential approval has evolved following the same cyclical pattern of higher approval at the beginning and end of the administrations. Using 66 presidential approval polls from Centro de Estudios Públicos between 1990 and 2018 (N=82,984), we assess the effect of party identification and economic vote variables on presidential approval. We show that party identification matters in the approval of all presidents. We also show that economic vote variables affect presidential approval for all presidents, though the effect was stronger for Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006) on average.
master teacher en el departamento de Liberal studies de new york University. Dirección electrónic... more master teacher en el departamento de Liberal studies de new york University. Dirección electrónica: Patricio.navia@ nyu.edu. BeléN del Pozo Quevedo. alumna de cuarto año en la licenciatura de ciencia política e investigadora asistente del observatorio electoral
Ключевые слова: квадратичное программирование, оптимизация закупок, метод штрафов, множитель Лагр... more Ключевые слова: квадратичное программирование, оптимизация закупок, метод штрафов, множитель Лагранжа, обратные вычисления Аннотация Предмет. Задачи квадратичного программирования с ограничением в виде равенства, в частности задача оптимизации закупок фирмы, которая заключается в определении набора заказываемых товаров таким образом, чтобы максимально удовлетворить спрос покупателей при ограниченном бюджете. Цели. Разработка алгоритма решения задачи оптимизации закупок путем определения минимума целевой функции и корректировки полученных значений с учетом ограничения с использованием обратных вычислений. Сравнение полученных результатов с классическими методами. Методология. Использованы классические методы решения задач нелинейного программирования: метод штрафов и метод множителей Лагранжа. Также для решения оптимизационной задачи был применен аппарат обратных вычислений. Результаты. Разработан алгоритм решения задачи оптимизации закупок с помощью обратных вычислений, в котором решение, полученное путем безусловной оптимизации, корректируется с учетом ограничения на имеющиеся денежные средства. Для формирования коэффициентов относительной важности используется стоимость закупки каждого вида изделия. Рассмотрен пример оптимизации закупок с использованием разработанного алгоритма, полученный результат сопоставлен с решениями классических методов. Предложенный алгоритм может быть использован в системах поддержки принятия решений для планирования закупок организации. Кроме того, данный алгоритм может быть применен и для других оптимизационных задач квадратичного программирования представленного вида (например, выбор пунктов вложения при осуществлении инвестиционных проектов). Выводы. Представленный алгоритм на основе обратных вычислений является более простым в компьютерной реализации по сравнению с классическими методами, нахождение решение задачи оптимизации закупок сводится к решению системы уравнений. В результате проведения вычислительных экспериментов были получены одинаковые результаты для трех методов: метода на основе обратных вычислений, метода штрафов и метода множителей Лагранжа.
Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determ... more Studies on presidential approval in consolidated and emerging democracies identify similar determinants of popular support and show a common U-shaped cyclical pattern, with higher levels of support during the honeymoon period and in the last year of the presidential term and lower support in the in-between years. Since democracy was restored in 1990, Chile has had six presidential terms. With some nuances, presidential approval has evolved following the same cyclical pattern of higher approval at the beginning and end of the administrations. Using 66 presidential approval polls from Centro de Estudios Públicos between 1990 and 2018 (N=82,984), we assess the effect of party identification and economic vote variables on presidential approval. We show that party identification matters in the approval of all presidents. We also show that economic vote variables affect presidential approval for all presidents, though the effect was stronger for Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006) on average. Resumen Los estudios sobre aprobación presidencial en las democracias consolidadas y emergentes identifican determinantes similares de apoyo popular y muestran un patrón cíclico en forma de U, con niveles más altos de apoyo al comienzo del gobierno y en el último año del período presidencial y niveles más bajos en años interme-1 This work was supported by Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica [Conicyt/Fondap/151300009] and Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico [1171051]. Replications are available upon request.
This article applies the debate on the recent emergence of outsider candidates in Latin America t... more This article applies the debate on the recent emergence of outsider candidates in Latin America to independent presidential candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami (ME-O) in Chile in 2009. We test five competing hypotheses to explain his electoral success. First, his support is explained by the consolidation of democracy, reflected by the disposition of voters to disregard the authoritarian/democratic-aligned candidates. Second, his support is explained by the decline of ideological identification, reflected by the disposition of voters to prefer nontraditional candidates. Third, his support is explained by the resurgence of the Left, reflected by the disposition of voters to identify with anti-Washington Consensus candidates. Fourth, his support is explained by the demand for quick government action, reflected in the predisposition of voters to consider candidates who will solve problems fast even if they do not ask voters for their opinions. Fifth, his support is explained by the declining support for established parties, reflected by the predisposition of voters to favor antisystemic candidates. We use survey data to test these hypotheses. We find no evidence to support the claims that ME-O fits any of the explanations. Though he was widely referred to as an outsider, his success seems to respond to national affairs rather than to a regional pattern.
It has been argued that close elections lead to policy convergence, as legislators elected by a s... more It has been argued that close elections lead to policy convergence, as legislators elected by a small margin are more likely to adopt moderate policy positions (Downs 1957). However, Lee, Moretti, and Butler (2004) find that electoral competition does not affect legislators’ policy preferences in the United States, questioning the median voter paradigm. To help to discern this paradox, we estimate the effect of close elections on legislators’ subsequent policy positions under different electoral rules. With Chile's two-seat open-list proportional representation system, we exploit the dynamics of within-coalition competition to test both hypotheses. Using the margin of victory in 383 races in four different parliamentary elections and 3,741 roll-call votes for the 120-seat Chamber of Deputies from 1998 to 2014, we find that electoral competition did not lead to policy convergence under either the center-left Concertación coalition or the rightist Alianza coalition. We contend tha...
Artículos CienCia PolítiCa Incumbency AdvAntAge And tenure Length In the chILeAn chAmber of deput... more Artículos CienCia PolítiCa Incumbency AdvAntAge And tenure Length In the chILeAn chAmber of deputIes, 1989-2009* 1
In this article we examine the presence of bias in Chile's two main daily newspapers, El Mercurio... more In this article we examine the presence of bias in Chile's two main daily newspapers, El Mercurio and La Tercera, both of which have historically been associated with the political right. We analyse their principal headlines in the first 100 days of rule of presidents Eduardo
Voters normally split their tickets when they do not feel sufficiently represented by only one po... more Voters normally split their tickets when they do not feel sufficiently represented by only one political party or when politicians cultivate a personal vote regardless of party identification. Yet, voters might also split their tickets when they feel indifferent about like-minded parties or individual candidates. The authors distinguish between misalignment ticket-splitting (MATS), caused by a mismatch between voters' preferences and the alternatives offered by the party system, and mis-coordination ticket-splitting (MCTS), when like-minded parties offer choices equally acceptable to voters. MCTS is likely to occur under proportional representation systems with multiple parties. The authors apply our categorization to concurrent presidential and legislative elections in Chile in 2005 and 2009. There was plenty of MCTS but little MATS. The authors suggest that the two forms should be separately analyzed as they are reflective of different political phenomena.
* este artículo recibió financiamiento del proyecto Fondecyt nº 1085243. agradecemos a los evalua... more * este artículo recibió financiamiento del proyecto Fondecyt nº 1085243. agradecemos a los evaluadores anónimos por sus comentarios. Los errores y omisiones son exclusiva responsabilidad de los autores. ¿Consumo luego pienso, o pienso y luego Consumo? Consumo de medios, predisposiCión polítiCa, perCepCión eConómiCa y aprobaCión presidenCial en Chile*
Este trabajo muestra que la participación electoral en Chile hoy no es menor a la observada hasta... more Este trabajo muestra que la participación electoral en Chile hoy no es menor a la observada hasta antes de 1973. La alta tasa de participación en 1988 representa una comprensible anomalía. Después de 15 años sin votar, los chilenos participaron entusiastamente en el plebiscito. Pero a partir de entonces, la tasa de participación tendió a la baja hasta llegar a fines de los 90 a niveles similares a los observados antes del quiebre democrático de 1973. Usando un marco teórico que aborda la participación como una función basada en costos y beneficios, discute la participación electoral en Chile en un contexto internacional, subrayando las diferencias y similitudes de los patrones existentes antes de 1973 y después de 1988, enfatizando tanto lógicas de inscripción como de participación electoral. Al hacerlo, aborda la tensión que existe entre un electorado estable y un número creciente de personas no inscritas para votar. Por último, identifica algunas propuestas que permitirían eliminar las trabas institucionales que han llevado a la formación de dos clases de adultos, aquellos que estando inscritos están obligados a votar y los que al no estar inscritos no pueden sufragar. Puntualmente, argumenta que al automatizar la inscripción se puede incorporar a todos sin tener siquiera que entrar a discutir la obligatoriedad del voto.
Documents published in the IDB working paper series are of the highest academic and editorial qua... more Documents published in the IDB working paper series are of the highest academic and editorial quality. All have been peer reviewed by recognized experts in their field and professionally edited. The information and opinions presented in these publications are entirely those of the author(s), and no endorsement by the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the countries they represent is expressed or implied.
This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or s... more This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae, and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand, or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material.
Este trabajo explora las causas de la desproporcionalidad-la diferencia entre el porcentaje de es... more Este trabajo explora las causas de la desproporcionalidad-la diferencia entre el porcentaje de escaños y el porcentaje de votos obtenidos por un partido-en 18 países de América Latina, evaluando el efecto de cuatro variables explicativas. La primera parte presenta el diseño de la investigación, los enfoques teóricos que fundamentan los estudios sobre sistemas electorales y una revisión de literatura donde se conceptualiza tanto la desproporcionalidad como las variables independientes. La segunda parte entrega un análisis sobre los sistemas electorales y el comportamiento de las variables en cuestión en Latinoamérica. La tercera parte contiene el análisis inferencial que mide el impacto de las variables independientes sobre la desproporcionalidad. Postulamos que existe una relación directa entre la magnitud de distrito y la desproporcionalidad. Adicionalmente, el "rango de exclusión"-es decir, la cantidad de electores que potencialmente pueden quedar sin representación debido a la magnitud de distrito y a la fórmula de conversión de votos en escaños-también incrementa la desproporcionalidad. Los sistemas electorales proporcionales producen menos distorsión entre porcentaje de votos y escaños respecto a los mayoritarios o mixtos. Una baja fragmentación en el sistema de partidos-esto es, un número reducido de partidos con presencia en el Parlamento-débilmente contribuye a aumentar la desproporcionalidad. Finalmente, el malapportionment (esto es, la distribución desproporcionada de escaños respecto al número de electores de un distrito) no tiene relación estadísticamente significativa con la desproporcionalidad.
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