ABSTRACT—Since the mid-1980s, confidence intervals (CIs) have been standard in medical journals. ... more ABSTRACT—Since the mid-1980s, confidence intervals (CIs) have been standard in medical journals. We sought lessons for psy-chology from medicine’s experience with statistical reform by investigating two attempts by Kenneth Rothman to change sta-tistical practices. We examined 594 American Journal of Public Health (AJPH) articles published between 1982 and 2000 and 110 Epidemiology articles published in 1990 and 2000. Roth-man’s editorial instruction to report CIs and not p values was largely effective: In AJPH, sole reliance on p values dropped from 63 % to 5%, and CI reporting rose from 10 % to 54%; Epidemiology showed even stronger compliance. However, compliance was superficial: Very few authors referred to CIs when discussing results. The results of our survey support what other research has indicated: Editorial policy alone is not a sufficient mechanism for statistical reform. Achieving substan-
Les discussions engagees en classe de philosophie ne concernent generalement que quelques eleves,... more Les discussions engagees en classe de philosophie ne concernent generalement que quelques eleves, les plus brillants, qui ont lu les textes proposes. Afin de permettre a tous les eleves d'aborder la lecture des textes philosophiques sans apprehension et favoriser leur comprehension, l'A. propose certaines methodes qu'il a experimentees
Previous studies have found significant differences between men and women who have sought help fo... more Previous studies have found significant differences between men and women who have sought help for problems associated with their gambling. While this raises the possibility of differing treatment needs, much of the research into treating problem gamblers is based on all-male samples. This article seeks to remedy this situation by reporting on sex differences in the treatment of 1,520 problem gamblers, almost half of whom are female, who sought help in the state of Victoria, Australia, between July 1996 and June 1997. In contrast to the primarily external concerns such as employment and legal matters reported by males, females attending for problem gambling counseling were more likely to report problems with their physical and intrapersonal functioning and were more likely to report resolution of their problems. Male clients were more likely to have their cases closed and be referred to other agencies for assistance.
PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, 1994
Much of the history of science is missing much of the time. The missing history I have in mind is... more Much of the history of science is missing much of the time. The missing history I have in mind is not missing because of lost documents or state secrecy. Nor is it missing because it is obscure. I am talking about central episodes in the history of science and absolutely central issues in the logical structure and evidential support of those episodes. In fact, the episodes are so central and well known, and the missing history (once seen) so obvious, that one feels compelled to hold that there must be a widespread systematic bias among historians and philosophers against seeing certain explanatory patterns. My explanation for this missing history of science is that there is a strong tendency among historians and philosophers of science toward what I will call “Psychological Predictivism” to distinguish it from “Logical Predictivism.” Logical Predictivism is the position that, if an observed phenomenon provides good evidence for a hypothesis, then that hypothesis (plus unproblematic ...
We aimed to assess the prevalence of sleep disturbance in a cardiac patient population over a 12-... more We aimed to assess the prevalence of sleep disturbance in a cardiac patient population over a 12-month period and assess its relationship with treatment adherence, self-efficacy, anxiety and depression. A total of 134 patients consecutively admitted to two Australian hospitals after acute myocardial infarction (31%), or to undergo bypass surgery (29%) or percutaneous coronary intervention (40%) were interviewed at six weeks and four and 12 months. Sleep disturbance was measured using a recode of the Beck Depression Inventory (v.2) item 16. Anxiety and depression were assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Sleep disturbance was highly prevalent (69%) at 6 weeks but was not associated with 12-month psychological outcomes. Path analysis revealed that sleep disturbance at 4 months was, however, associated with reduced treatment adherence and self-efficacy, and higher anxiety and depression scores at 12 months. The high prevalence of sleep disturbance in this study and it...
Over-reliance on Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) is a serious problem in a number of ... more Over-reliance on Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) is a serious problem in a number of disciplines, including psychology and ecology. It has the potential to damage not only the progress of these sciences but also the objects of their study. In the mid 1980s, medicine underwent a (relatively) major statistical reform. Strict editorial policy saw the number of p values in journals drop dramatically, and the rate of confidence interval reporting rise concomitantly. In psychology, a parallel change is yet to be achieved, despite half a century of debate, several editorial inventions, and even an American Psychological Association Task Force on Statistical Inference. Ecology also lags substantially behind. The nature of the editorial policies and the degree of collaboration amongst editors are important factors in explaining the varying levels of reforms in these disciplines. But without efforts to also rewrite textbooks, improve software and research understanding of alternative methods, it seems unlikely that editorial initiatives will achieve substantial statistical reform.
StatPlay is a collection of computer-based demonstrations and interactive simulations intended to... more StatPlay is a collection of computer-based demonstrations and interactive simulations intended to promote cognitive change and good understanding of central aspects of statistics and experimental design. StatPlay is intended for use in a variety of ways, including lecture demonstrations, ...
The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 1992
... Could Lakatos, Even With Zahar's ... Ludwik Fleck ABSTRACT In 'Why did Copernicus&#... more ... Could Lakatos, Even With Zahar's ... Ludwik Fleck ABSTRACT In 'Why did Copernicus's research programme supersede Ptolemy's?', Lakatos and Zahar argued that, on Zahar's criterion for 'novel fact', Copernican theory was objectively scientifically superior to Ptolemaic theory. ...
In applying Bayes’s theorem to the history of science, Bayesians sometimes assume – often without... more In applying Bayes’s theorem to the history of science, Bayesians sometimes assume – often without argument – that they can safely ignore very implausible theories. This assumption is false, both in that it can seriously distort the history of science as well as the mathematics and the applicability of Bayes’s theorem. There are intuitively very plausible counter-examples. In fact, one can ignore very implausible or unknown theories only if at least one of two conditions is satisfied: (i) one is certain that there are no unknown theories which explain the phenomenon in question, or (ii) the likelihood of at least one of the known theories used in the calculation of the posterior is reasonably large. Often in the history of science, a very surprising phenomenon is observed, and neither of these criteria is satisfied.
Imre Lakatos’ Proofs and Refutations is a book well known to those who work in the philosophy of ... more Imre Lakatos’ Proofs and Refutations is a book well known to those who work in the philosophy of mathematics, though it is perhaps not widely referred to. Its general thrust is out of tenor with the foundationalist perspective that has dominated work in the philosophy of mathematics since the early years of the 20th century. It seems to us, though, that the book contains striking insights into the nature of proof, and the purpose of this paper is to explore and apply some of these.
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 2000
For many good (and some bad) reasons, philosophers of science are enjoined to study the history o... more For many good (and some bad) reasons, philosophers of science are enjoined to study the history of science. Some even propose to use that history as a touchstone to evaluate philosophies of science. Clearly, the value of this advice depends, inter alia, on the historical accuracy of the proffered history. Of course, history is complex and, as with other areas of scholarship, we should expect many histories of science to contain errors or to mislead in some way. Most such errors will be trivial or limited to one author or, if they are of some interest, they will be corrected by other historians. But if there is a systematic bias among historians dealing with many different areas of the history of science, the resulting general understanding of science will be distorted. This is so especially if that bias among historians has the effect of reinforcing a widespread tendency among philosophers.
Natural Kinds, Laws of Nature and Scientific Methodology, 1996
In January 1610, Galileo turned his telescope toward Jupiter and soon afterwards announced that h... more In January 1610, Galileo turned his telescope toward Jupiter and soon afterwards announced that he had discovered four moons circling it. Although a considerable controversy ensued, by the summer of 1611 a consensus had emerged among the knowledgeable that the telescope was reliable (at least in this case) in the super-lunar realm and that the Jovian system was real. This is a remarkably fast closure of serious debate about a complex scientific issue, considering the slowness of early 17th century communication, the problematic nature of the new instrument and the importance of the astronomical discovery.
Advanced Information and Knowledge Processing, 2008
Experimental evidence shows that in dedicated Critical Thinking courses "Lots of Argument Mapping... more Experimental evidence shows that in dedicated Critical Thinking courses "Lots of Argument Mapping Practice" (LAMP) using a software tool like Rationale considerably improves students' critical thinking skills. We believe that teaching with LAMP has additional cognitive and pedagogical benefits, even outside dedicated Critical Thinking subjects. Students learn to better understand and critique arguments, improve in their reading and writing, become clearer in their thinking and, perhaps, even gain meta-cognitive skills that ultimately make them better learners. We discuss some of the evidence for these claims, explain how, as we believe, LAMP confers these benefits, and call for proper experimental and educational research.
ABSTRACT—Since the mid-1980s, confidence intervals (CIs) have been standard in medical journals. ... more ABSTRACT—Since the mid-1980s, confidence intervals (CIs) have been standard in medical journals. We sought lessons for psy-chology from medicine’s experience with statistical reform by investigating two attempts by Kenneth Rothman to change sta-tistical practices. We examined 594 American Journal of Public Health (AJPH) articles published between 1982 and 2000 and 110 Epidemiology articles published in 1990 and 2000. Roth-man’s editorial instruction to report CIs and not p values was largely effective: In AJPH, sole reliance on p values dropped from 63 % to 5%, and CI reporting rose from 10 % to 54%; Epidemiology showed even stronger compliance. However, compliance was superficial: Very few authors referred to CIs when discussing results. The results of our survey support what other research has indicated: Editorial policy alone is not a sufficient mechanism for statistical reform. Achieving substan-
Les discussions engagees en classe de philosophie ne concernent generalement que quelques eleves,... more Les discussions engagees en classe de philosophie ne concernent generalement que quelques eleves, les plus brillants, qui ont lu les textes proposes. Afin de permettre a tous les eleves d'aborder la lecture des textes philosophiques sans apprehension et favoriser leur comprehension, l'A. propose certaines methodes qu'il a experimentees
Previous studies have found significant differences between men and women who have sought help fo... more Previous studies have found significant differences between men and women who have sought help for problems associated with their gambling. While this raises the possibility of differing treatment needs, much of the research into treating problem gamblers is based on all-male samples. This article seeks to remedy this situation by reporting on sex differences in the treatment of 1,520 problem gamblers, almost half of whom are female, who sought help in the state of Victoria, Australia, between July 1996 and June 1997. In contrast to the primarily external concerns such as employment and legal matters reported by males, females attending for problem gambling counseling were more likely to report problems with their physical and intrapersonal functioning and were more likely to report resolution of their problems. Male clients were more likely to have their cases closed and be referred to other agencies for assistance.
PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, 1994
Much of the history of science is missing much of the time. The missing history I have in mind is... more Much of the history of science is missing much of the time. The missing history I have in mind is not missing because of lost documents or state secrecy. Nor is it missing because it is obscure. I am talking about central episodes in the history of science and absolutely central issues in the logical structure and evidential support of those episodes. In fact, the episodes are so central and well known, and the missing history (once seen) so obvious, that one feels compelled to hold that there must be a widespread systematic bias among historians and philosophers against seeing certain explanatory patterns. My explanation for this missing history of science is that there is a strong tendency among historians and philosophers of science toward what I will call “Psychological Predictivism” to distinguish it from “Logical Predictivism.” Logical Predictivism is the position that, if an observed phenomenon provides good evidence for a hypothesis, then that hypothesis (plus unproblematic ...
We aimed to assess the prevalence of sleep disturbance in a cardiac patient population over a 12-... more We aimed to assess the prevalence of sleep disturbance in a cardiac patient population over a 12-month period and assess its relationship with treatment adherence, self-efficacy, anxiety and depression. A total of 134 patients consecutively admitted to two Australian hospitals after acute myocardial infarction (31%), or to undergo bypass surgery (29%) or percutaneous coronary intervention (40%) were interviewed at six weeks and four and 12 months. Sleep disturbance was measured using a recode of the Beck Depression Inventory (v.2) item 16. Anxiety and depression were assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Sleep disturbance was highly prevalent (69%) at 6 weeks but was not associated with 12-month psychological outcomes. Path analysis revealed that sleep disturbance at 4 months was, however, associated with reduced treatment adherence and self-efficacy, and higher anxiety and depression scores at 12 months. The high prevalence of sleep disturbance in this study and it...
Over-reliance on Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) is a serious problem in a number of ... more Over-reliance on Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) is a serious problem in a number of disciplines, including psychology and ecology. It has the potential to damage not only the progress of these sciences but also the objects of their study. In the mid 1980s, medicine underwent a (relatively) major statistical reform. Strict editorial policy saw the number of p values in journals drop dramatically, and the rate of confidence interval reporting rise concomitantly. In psychology, a parallel change is yet to be achieved, despite half a century of debate, several editorial inventions, and even an American Psychological Association Task Force on Statistical Inference. Ecology also lags substantially behind. The nature of the editorial policies and the degree of collaboration amongst editors are important factors in explaining the varying levels of reforms in these disciplines. But without efforts to also rewrite textbooks, improve software and research understanding of alternative methods, it seems unlikely that editorial initiatives will achieve substantial statistical reform.
StatPlay is a collection of computer-based demonstrations and interactive simulations intended to... more StatPlay is a collection of computer-based demonstrations and interactive simulations intended to promote cognitive change and good understanding of central aspects of statistics and experimental design. StatPlay is intended for use in a variety of ways, including lecture demonstrations, ...
The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 1992
... Could Lakatos, Even With Zahar's ... Ludwik Fleck ABSTRACT In 'Why did Copernicus&#... more ... Could Lakatos, Even With Zahar's ... Ludwik Fleck ABSTRACT In 'Why did Copernicus's research programme supersede Ptolemy's?', Lakatos and Zahar argued that, on Zahar's criterion for 'novel fact', Copernican theory was objectively scientifically superior to Ptolemaic theory. ...
In applying Bayes’s theorem to the history of science, Bayesians sometimes assume – often without... more In applying Bayes’s theorem to the history of science, Bayesians sometimes assume – often without argument – that they can safely ignore very implausible theories. This assumption is false, both in that it can seriously distort the history of science as well as the mathematics and the applicability of Bayes’s theorem. There are intuitively very plausible counter-examples. In fact, one can ignore very implausible or unknown theories only if at least one of two conditions is satisfied: (i) one is certain that there are no unknown theories which explain the phenomenon in question, or (ii) the likelihood of at least one of the known theories used in the calculation of the posterior is reasonably large. Often in the history of science, a very surprising phenomenon is observed, and neither of these criteria is satisfied.
Imre Lakatos’ Proofs and Refutations is a book well known to those who work in the philosophy of ... more Imre Lakatos’ Proofs and Refutations is a book well known to those who work in the philosophy of mathematics, though it is perhaps not widely referred to. Its general thrust is out of tenor with the foundationalist perspective that has dominated work in the philosophy of mathematics since the early years of the 20th century. It seems to us, though, that the book contains striking insights into the nature of proof, and the purpose of this paper is to explore and apply some of these.
Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 2000
For many good (and some bad) reasons, philosophers of science are enjoined to study the history o... more For many good (and some bad) reasons, philosophers of science are enjoined to study the history of science. Some even propose to use that history as a touchstone to evaluate philosophies of science. Clearly, the value of this advice depends, inter alia, on the historical accuracy of the proffered history. Of course, history is complex and, as with other areas of scholarship, we should expect many histories of science to contain errors or to mislead in some way. Most such errors will be trivial or limited to one author or, if they are of some interest, they will be corrected by other historians. But if there is a systematic bias among historians dealing with many different areas of the history of science, the resulting general understanding of science will be distorted. This is so especially if that bias among historians has the effect of reinforcing a widespread tendency among philosophers.
Natural Kinds, Laws of Nature and Scientific Methodology, 1996
In January 1610, Galileo turned his telescope toward Jupiter and soon afterwards announced that h... more In January 1610, Galileo turned his telescope toward Jupiter and soon afterwards announced that he had discovered four moons circling it. Although a considerable controversy ensued, by the summer of 1611 a consensus had emerged among the knowledgeable that the telescope was reliable (at least in this case) in the super-lunar realm and that the Jovian system was real. This is a remarkably fast closure of serious debate about a complex scientific issue, considering the slowness of early 17th century communication, the problematic nature of the new instrument and the importance of the astronomical discovery.
Advanced Information and Knowledge Processing, 2008
Experimental evidence shows that in dedicated Critical Thinking courses "Lots of Argument Mapping... more Experimental evidence shows that in dedicated Critical Thinking courses "Lots of Argument Mapping Practice" (LAMP) using a software tool like Rationale considerably improves students' critical thinking skills. We believe that teaching with LAMP has additional cognitive and pedagogical benefits, even outside dedicated Critical Thinking subjects. Students learn to better understand and critique arguments, improve in their reading and writing, become clearer in their thinking and, perhaps, even gain meta-cognitive skills that ultimately make them better learners. We discuss some of the evidence for these claims, explain how, as we believe, LAMP confers these benefits, and call for proper experimental and educational research.
Uploads
Papers by Neil Thomason