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Mingjiang Li

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Dr. LI Mingjiang is an Associate Professor at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. His main research interests include China-ASEAN relations, Sino-U.S. relations, Asia-Pacific security, and domestic sources of Chinese foreign policy. He is the author (including editor and co-editor) of 13 books and numerous articles.

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Armando Marques-Guedes

UNL - New University of Lisbon

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia - UTM

UERJ - Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / Rio de Janeiro State University

Stockholm University

Lancaster University

Armin Selbitschka

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

Hsiao-chun Hung 洪曉純

The Australian National University

ICFO-The Institute of Photonic Sciences

Yongyut Trisurat

Kasetsart University

University of Belgrade

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Papers by Mingjiang Li

China’s participation in Asian multilateralism: pragmatism prevails

Introduction to the Special Issue

Asian Perspective, 2019

China's Economic Power in Asia: The Belt and Road Initiative and the Local Guangxi Government's Role

Asian Perspective, 2019

China's growing economic power has been identified as a major factor in generating profound trans... more China's growing economic power has been identified as a major factor in generating profound transformations of the strategic landscape in Asia. Beijing's interest in using its economic power for the pursuit of geopolitical objectives remain strong. Many analysts believe that the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents the continuation and even intensification of such Chinese policy. I attempt to unpack China's economy power in its external relations by focusing on the role that Guangxi, a subnational government in China, has played by facilitating the emergence of the BRI and by actively participating in the implementation of the initiative. My study suggests that in-depth knowledge about local governments' activism in socioeconomic engagements with neighboring countries contributes significantly to a more nuanced understanding of China's power, particularly its economic power in Asia.

ASEAN’s responses to AUKUS: implications for strategic realignments in the Indo-Pacific

China International Strategy Review, Nov 27, 2022

Despite the divergence in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries' initial respo... more Despite the divergence in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries' initial responses to AUKUS, 1 year after the pronouncement of the tripartite security pact, ASEAN as a collective entity has already cautiously accepted AUKUS as a new reality. Regional states' responses to AUKUS have been shaped by their concerns about the challenges to ASEAN centrality, possible negative impacts on regional stability, and their strategic approaches to relations with both the United States and China. As many policymakers and analysts have feared, it is indeed likely that AUKUS may spark a regional arms race in certain areas and on a limited scale and bring more challenges for regional stability. At the same time, there are also uncertainties regarding the implementation of AUKUS, which raise doubts about the balance of power and deterrence effects that this new security arrangement may be able to achieve. In the long run, more regional powers, including middle powers and smaller states, may gradually gravitate toward AUKUS in the form of partnership or ad hoc issue-based cooperation. In this sense, it is quite possible that AUKUS may provide a new and perhaps flexible mode of strategic realignment in the Indo-Pacific region. Amid growing US-China strategic rivalry, the strategic landscape in Indo-Pacific may become even more divisive and competitive.

Understanding the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific: US–China strategic competition, regional actors, and beyond

International Affairs, 2020

Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au * This is an introduction to... more Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au * This is an introduction to the January 2020 special issue of International Affairs on 'Unpacking the Strategic Dynamics of the Indo Pacific', guest-edited by Kai He and Mingjiang Li. The order of the authors is alphabetical and signifies equal contribution to this project.

The South China Sea Arbitration: Turning Point in Chinese Foreign Policy?

Xinjiang unrest: catalyst for new grand vision for China?

Taiwan Strait Relations: How Far Can It Go?

China’s rising maritime aspirations : impact on Beijing’s good-neighbour policy

The proceedings at the recent political congresses in Beijing indicate an emerging consensus in C... more The proceedings at the recent political congresses in Beijing indicate an emerging consensus in China on the need to safeguard and expand its maritime interests. This may defeat the government's policy goal of improving relations with neighbouring countries. Commentary THE RECENT annual sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)-two of the most important political events in China-demonstrated the country's elite's aspiration and resolve to safeguard China's interests in the East Asian seas. At the same time, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his report to the NPC, vowed to give priority to improving relations with neighbouring countries in China's foreign affairs. Experiences in recent years indicate that these two sets of policy objectives may not be mutually reconcilable and is extremely difficult to maintain a balance between the two. Proposals for tighter maritime policies China's elite seized the opportunity during the political congresses to demand for more effective protection of Chinese maritime interests. Wang Zhuwen, president of Dalian Ocean University and also a deputy to the NPC, pointed out that the lack of maritime awareness has constrained the development of China's maritime cause. Hence, he proposed that maritime education should be included in the primary and middle school curriculum. At the NPC session Liu Cigui, Director of the State Oceanic Administration, indicated that China is serious about carrying out law enforcement activities in the seas. He said China's regular patrol activities now cover all the maritime zones under Chinese jurisdiction. These extend to the estuary of the Yalu River in the north, Okinawa Trough in the east, and Zengmu Reef (James Shoal) in the south, as well as features including the Suyan Islet (Socotra Rock), Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands, Huangyan Islands (Scarborough Shoal) and the Nansha Islands (Spratlys). Chen Mingyi, a member of the Standing Committee of the CPPCC, suggested that China should establish a National Maritime Commission to coordinate China's maritime policy. He further proposed that China should formulate a long-term comprehensive plan to transform China into a maritime power by 2020 to better protect RSIS Commentaries are intended to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy relevant background and analysis of contemporary developments. The views of the authors are their own and do not represent the official position of the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU.

China’s “One Belt, One Road” Initiative: New Round of Opening Up

China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative has become a priority in Beijing's foreign policy. Other ... more China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative has become a priority in Beijing's foreign policy. Other countries, especially China's neighbours, should not hesitate to capitalise on the opportunities it provides. But can China fulfil its ambition? Commentary CHINA'S PRESIDENT Xi Jinping put forth the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road proposals, also known as the "One Belt, One Road" Initiative, during his visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia in September and October 2013 respectively. Since then, the "One Belt, One Road" grand project, also known as the "Belt and Road" (BRI), has become a priority in China's foreign policy drive.

Going assertive? Chinese foreign policy under the new leadership

Routledge, Nov 20, 2014

Hainan Province in China’s South China Sea Policy: What Role Does the Local Government Play?

Asian Politics & Policy, 2019

Studies of Chinese national security or territorial dispute policy have overwhelmingly employed a... more

Zhongguo da zhou bian guan xi

China: Domestic Sources of its Soft Power Strategy in East Asia

Central–local interactions in foreign affairs

The dragon's hidden wings : How China Rises with Its Soft Power : [book review]

Non UBCUnreviewedOthe

China’s water diplomacy in the Mekong: a paradigm shift and the role of Yunnan provincial government

Water International, 2020

ABSTRACT This article examines the recent changes in China’s Mekong River policy and investigates... more ABSTRACT This article examines the recent changes in China’s Mekong River policy and investigates the contributing factors. In the past few years, China has shifted from an upstream sovereignty stance to launch a multilateral transboundary water diplomacy initiative in the Mekong River basin through the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism. We conclude that China’s adoption of water diplomacy in the Mekong River is partially attributable to international activism by the Yunnan provincial government and its associated actors.

Comparing China’s Claims and Policies in the East and South China Seas: Implications for Regional Security

Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2016

What is the long-term impact of China’s territorial and maritime security policy in East Asia on ... more What is the long-term impact of China’s territorial and maritime security policy in East Asia on regional security? To address this question, we compared China’s claims and actual policies related to the East China Sea and South China Sea and explored the motivations behind Beijing’s position and behaviour in the two disputes. More specifically, we examined a few interrelated issues: (a) similarities and differences in China’s claims in these two disputes from historical and legal perspectives, (b) China’s strategic and security calculations and its changing tactics in handing these two disputes in the past few years and (c) the major factors affecting China’s behaviour in the two disputes. Our conclusion is that China is unlikely to make any major concessions in the near future, and that regional security in East Asia will remain fraught with many uncertainties for a fairly long period of time.

Explaining China’s Proactive Engagement in Asia

Living with China, 2009

During Mao’s era, China hardly had a coherent or consistent policy toward its neighbors, largely ... more During Mao’s era, China hardly had a coherent or consistent policy toward its neighbors, largely due to Beijing’s involvement in the Cold War superpower imbroglios as well as China’s own revolution-based foreign policy.2 Even up until the 1980s, it is believed that China was still “a regional power without a regional policy.”3 However, with the end of the Cold War, particularly since the mid-1990s,4 China has been able to perceive its contiguous areas as one combined geopolitical identity in its foreign policy deliberations for the first time in its history and has gone to great lengths to flesh out a policy framework, the main feature of which is an all-round proactive engagement in Asia.

China and Japan: Hot Economics, Cold Politics?

Japan's Strategic Challenges in a Changing Regional Environment, 2012

According to integration theory, growing economic interdependence between China and Japan should ... more According to integration theory, growing economic interdependence between China and Japan should have spilled over into more cordial political relations. The opposite occurred, as summarized in the phrase "hot economics, cold politics." Even as both sides acknowledge the value of cooperation for shared benefit, commercial and strategic rivalries have intensified, calling into question the validity of integration theory. iven the progress of economic integration with its intricately engineered global supply chains, social scientists have sought to find ways to extend this interdependence to political institutions as well. The idea is that shared economic fortunes will lead to common political visions and ultimately to peace and harmony among the participating states. According to integration theory, the process should start with shared resources managed by politically disinterested technocrats. This will build trust, with greater trust enabling the development of an organizational capacity to resolve disputes and the formulations of legal codes to aid in dispute resolution. In a theory known as "neofunctionalism," this structural functionalism will create the basis for political integration through a process referred to as spillover. Originally conceived as a model for European integration, it was expected to be applicable to other regions of the world, as well. G This convergence has not happened in the case of China and Japan, and the short to medium-term prognosis is not promising. The case for Sino-Japanese

China’s participation in Asian multilateralism: pragmatism prevails

Introduction to the Special Issue

Asian Perspective, 2019

China's Economic Power in Asia: The Belt and Road Initiative and the Local Guangxi Government's Role

Asian Perspective, 2019

China's growing economic power has been identified as a major factor in generating profound trans... more China's growing economic power has been identified as a major factor in generating profound transformations of the strategic landscape in Asia. Beijing's interest in using its economic power for the pursuit of geopolitical objectives remain strong. Many analysts believe that the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents the continuation and even intensification of such Chinese policy. I attempt to unpack China's economy power in its external relations by focusing on the role that Guangxi, a subnational government in China, has played by facilitating the emergence of the BRI and by actively participating in the implementation of the initiative. My study suggests that in-depth knowledge about local governments' activism in socioeconomic engagements with neighboring countries contributes significantly to a more nuanced understanding of China's power, particularly its economic power in Asia.

ASEAN’s responses to AUKUS: implications for strategic realignments in the Indo-Pacific

China International Strategy Review, Nov 27, 2022

Despite the divergence in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries' initial respo... more Despite the divergence in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries' initial responses to AUKUS, 1 year after the pronouncement of the tripartite security pact, ASEAN as a collective entity has already cautiously accepted AUKUS as a new reality. Regional states' responses to AUKUS have been shaped by their concerns about the challenges to ASEAN centrality, possible negative impacts on regional stability, and their strategic approaches to relations with both the United States and China. As many policymakers and analysts have feared, it is indeed likely that AUKUS may spark a regional arms race in certain areas and on a limited scale and bring more challenges for regional stability. At the same time, there are also uncertainties regarding the implementation of AUKUS, which raise doubts about the balance of power and deterrence effects that this new security arrangement may be able to achieve. In the long run, more regional powers, including middle powers and smaller states, may gradually gravitate toward AUKUS in the form of partnership or ad hoc issue-based cooperation. In this sense, it is quite possible that AUKUS may provide a new and perhaps flexible mode of strategic realignment in the Indo-Pacific region. Amid growing US-China strategic rivalry, the strategic landscape in Indo-Pacific may become even more divisive and competitive.

Understanding the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific: US–China strategic competition, regional actors, and beyond

International Affairs, 2020

Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au * This is an introduction to... more Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au * This is an introduction to the January 2020 special issue of International Affairs on 'Unpacking the Strategic Dynamics of the Indo Pacific', guest-edited by Kai He and Mingjiang Li. The order of the authors is alphabetical and signifies equal contribution to this project.

The South China Sea Arbitration: Turning Point in Chinese Foreign Policy?

Xinjiang unrest: catalyst for new grand vision for China?

Taiwan Strait Relations: How Far Can It Go?

China’s rising maritime aspirations : impact on Beijing’s good-neighbour policy

The proceedings at the recent political congresses in Beijing indicate an emerging consensus in C... more The proceedings at the recent political congresses in Beijing indicate an emerging consensus in China on the need to safeguard and expand its maritime interests. This may defeat the government's policy goal of improving relations with neighbouring countries. Commentary THE RECENT annual sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)-two of the most important political events in China-demonstrated the country's elite's aspiration and resolve to safeguard China's interests in the East Asian seas. At the same time, Premier Wen Jiabao, in his report to the NPC, vowed to give priority to improving relations with neighbouring countries in China's foreign affairs. Experiences in recent years indicate that these two sets of policy objectives may not be mutually reconcilable and is extremely difficult to maintain a balance between the two. Proposals for tighter maritime policies China's elite seized the opportunity during the political congresses to demand for more effective protection of Chinese maritime interests. Wang Zhuwen, president of Dalian Ocean University and also a deputy to the NPC, pointed out that the lack of maritime awareness has constrained the development of China's maritime cause. Hence, he proposed that maritime education should be included in the primary and middle school curriculum. At the NPC session Liu Cigui, Director of the State Oceanic Administration, indicated that China is serious about carrying out law enforcement activities in the seas. He said China's regular patrol activities now cover all the maritime zones under Chinese jurisdiction. These extend to the estuary of the Yalu River in the north, Okinawa Trough in the east, and Zengmu Reef (James Shoal) in the south, as well as features including the Suyan Islet (Socotra Rock), Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands, Huangyan Islands (Scarborough Shoal) and the Nansha Islands (Spratlys). Chen Mingyi, a member of the Standing Committee of the CPPCC, suggested that China should establish a National Maritime Commission to coordinate China's maritime policy. He further proposed that China should formulate a long-term comprehensive plan to transform China into a maritime power by 2020 to better protect RSIS Commentaries are intended to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy relevant background and analysis of contemporary developments. The views of the authors are their own and do not represent the official position of the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU.

China’s “One Belt, One Road” Initiative: New Round of Opening Up

China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative has become a priority in Beijing's foreign policy. Other ... more China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative has become a priority in Beijing's foreign policy. Other countries, especially China's neighbours, should not hesitate to capitalise on the opportunities it provides. But can China fulfil its ambition? Commentary CHINA'S PRESIDENT Xi Jinping put forth the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road proposals, also known as the "One Belt, One Road" Initiative, during his visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia in September and October 2013 respectively. Since then, the "One Belt, One Road" grand project, also known as the "Belt and Road" (BRI), has become a priority in China's foreign policy drive.

Going assertive? Chinese foreign policy under the new leadership

Routledge, Nov 20, 2014

Hainan Province in China’s South China Sea Policy: What Role Does the Local Government Play?

Asian Politics & Policy, 2019

Studies of Chinese national security or territorial dispute policy have overwhelmingly employed a... more

Zhongguo da zhou bian guan xi

China: Domestic Sources of its Soft Power Strategy in East Asia

Central–local interactions in foreign affairs

The dragon's hidden wings : How China Rises with Its Soft Power : [book review]

Non UBCUnreviewedOthe

China’s water diplomacy in the Mekong: a paradigm shift and the role of Yunnan provincial government

Water International, 2020

ABSTRACT This article examines the recent changes in China’s Mekong River policy and investigates... more ABSTRACT This article examines the recent changes in China’s Mekong River policy and investigates the contributing factors. In the past few years, China has shifted from an upstream sovereignty stance to launch a multilateral transboundary water diplomacy initiative in the Mekong River basin through the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism. We conclude that China’s adoption of water diplomacy in the Mekong River is partially attributable to international activism by the Yunnan provincial government and its associated actors.

Comparing China’s Claims and Policies in the East and South China Seas: Implications for Regional Security

Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2016

What is the long-term impact of China’s territorial and maritime security policy in East Asia on ... more What is the long-term impact of China’s territorial and maritime security policy in East Asia on regional security? To address this question, we compared China’s claims and actual policies related to the East China Sea and South China Sea and explored the motivations behind Beijing’s position and behaviour in the two disputes. More specifically, we examined a few interrelated issues: (a) similarities and differences in China’s claims in these two disputes from historical and legal perspectives, (b) China’s strategic and security calculations and its changing tactics in handing these two disputes in the past few years and (c) the major factors affecting China’s behaviour in the two disputes. Our conclusion is that China is unlikely to make any major concessions in the near future, and that regional security in East Asia will remain fraught with many uncertainties for a fairly long period of time.

Explaining China’s Proactive Engagement in Asia

Living with China, 2009

During Mao’s era, China hardly had a coherent or consistent policy toward its neighbors, largely ... more During Mao’s era, China hardly had a coherent or consistent policy toward its neighbors, largely due to Beijing’s involvement in the Cold War superpower imbroglios as well as China’s own revolution-based foreign policy.2 Even up until the 1980s, it is believed that China was still “a regional power without a regional policy.”3 However, with the end of the Cold War, particularly since the mid-1990s,4 China has been able to perceive its contiguous areas as one combined geopolitical identity in its foreign policy deliberations for the first time in its history and has gone to great lengths to flesh out a policy framework, the main feature of which is an all-round proactive engagement in Asia.

China and Japan: Hot Economics, Cold Politics?

Japan's Strategic Challenges in a Changing Regional Environment, 2012

According to integration theory, growing economic interdependence between China and Japan should ... more According to integration theory, growing economic interdependence between China and Japan should have spilled over into more cordial political relations. The opposite occurred, as summarized in the phrase "hot economics, cold politics." Even as both sides acknowledge the value of cooperation for shared benefit, commercial and strategic rivalries have intensified, calling into question the validity of integration theory. iven the progress of economic integration with its intricately engineered global supply chains, social scientists have sought to find ways to extend this interdependence to political institutions as well. The idea is that shared economic fortunes will lead to common political visions and ultimately to peace and harmony among the participating states. According to integration theory, the process should start with shared resources managed by politically disinterested technocrats. This will build trust, with greater trust enabling the development of an organizational capacity to resolve disputes and the formulations of legal codes to aid in dispute resolution. In a theory known as "neofunctionalism," this structural functionalism will create the basis for political integration through a process referred to as spillover. Originally conceived as a model for European integration, it was expected to be applicable to other regions of the world, as well. G This convergence has not happened in the case of China and Japan, and the short to medium-term prognosis is not promising. The case for Sino-Japanese