Groundwater use plays an important role in agriculture where the lack of timely rainfall can lowe... more Groundwater use plays an important role in agriculture where the lack of timely rainfall can lower yields. Policy makers strive to conserve ecosystem services, such as groundwater supply, while at the same time providing for economic growth. We develop a spatially explicit landscape level model for analyzing the ecosystem service and economic consequences of alternative crop mix patterns. The spatially explicit ecosystem service model uses initial aquifer thickness, hydro-conductivity of the aquifer, a digital elevation model, and soil characteristics, among other data, to predict the value of groundwater, surface water quality, and greenhouse gas emissions. The spatially explicit economic model incorporates site characteristics and location to predict economic returns for a variety of potential crop types. By thinking carefully about the arrangement of activities, we find crop mix and surface water storage systems that sustain high levels of ecosystem services and economic returns....
This research models net return and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) implications of bull genetics ... more This research models net return and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) implications of bull genetics on cow-calf operations using conditions reflective of Arkansas farms. Operation-specific details for a representative farm are described and impacts of bull selection on net returns for the entire operation as well as on a per cow basis are calculated. Further, the analysis highlights situations where bull selection could be both profitable and used to mitigate GHG emissions. Results suggest that profitability changes as a result of bull selection were larger than the associated change in GHG emissions. Modeled results indicated that genetic selections that increase birthing difficulty are economically detrimental and increase GHG emissions per pound of beef sold. Finally, changes in breed driven hide color price premiums are relatively consistent over time.
The Tractor Guidance Analysis Model (TGA) was developed to assist small-scale crop and livestock ... more The Tractor Guidance Analysis Model (TGA) was developed to assist small-scale crop and livestock producers, consultants, and extension personnel with analyzing the adoption of auto-steer tractor guidance to improve yields, reduce input use, extend workdays, and thereby enhance the efficiency of machinery and tractor operators. Using the Microsoft Excel® software platform, TGA utilizes default efficiency gain measurements observed at the USDA ARS Booneville Small Farm Research center and/or existing literature to provide a decision-support tool that performs partial budgeting and breakeven analyses for user-specified farm operations. For example, is the decision to invest in less accurate technology at a lower cost more economical than expensive technology with better accuracy? How sensitive are feasibility results to purported efficiency gains when field attributes such as slope and field shape irregularity change? At what level of annual use will the technology pay off with changea...
The third most consumed meat around the world is beef. Despite global demand side growth, cattle ... more The third most consumed meat around the world is beef. Despite global demand side growth, cattle markets experience price cycles related to biological production lags causing variability in cashflow and profitability for producers. Price-driven herd size management strategies thus have received attention. This study adds to that literature by analyzing both price and production risk using three herd size management strategies: i) constant size – holding herd size constant; ii) dollar cost averaging – keeping reinvestment constant by varying the number of replacement heifers retained at a constant long run average dollar total; and iii) moving average – using an uptrend/downtrend price signal to lower/increase production in anticipation of future price declines/increases. These strategies are evaluated with and without weather induced forage availability changes that impact the relative profitability and risk of these strategies over the most recent 2004-2014 cattle cycle. This analy...
Section 7606 of the Farm Bill authorizes the production of industrial hemp for research and pilot... more Section 7606 of the Farm Bill authorizes the production of industrial hemp for research and pilot program purposes. Currently 24 states have laws or statutes that have paved the way for industrial hemp production; however, only four states are in the South. Although previous research has suggested that there are 25,000 legal uses for industrial hemp, there is a lack of timely information regarding the political (social acceptability) and legal and economic feasibility of hemp production for Southern states. The purpose of this poster is to: 1) conduct an extensive literature review to summarize existing legal, political and economic considerations; and 2) identify the primary legal, political and economic challenges and opportunities for hemp production in the South. It is expected that this information will be helpful to policy makers, agricultural producers and the public by providing information about consumer acceptance, cost of production, best management practices and how the ...
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2019
Producers often contemplate expanding or contracting production to take advantage of cyclical cat... more Producers often contemplate expanding or contracting production to take advantage of cyclical cattle price trends. This study quantifies profitability and risk implications of (1) constant herd size, (2) dollar cost averaging, and (3) price signal-based, anticipatory countercyclical expansion/contraction strategies. Weather simulation on forages with different calving season and land use intensity showed fall calving herds with added hay sales from greater fertilizer use and the countercyclical herd size management strategy to be most profitable regardless of weather or time period analyzed. Income risk was comparable to least fertilizer use. Overall, holding herd size constant led to little regret.
We model water use, aquifer recharge and producer returns over 30 years in three watersheds to de... more We model water use, aquifer recharge and producer returns over 30 years in three watersheds to determine impact of modified water cost and construction of reservoirs. To maintain groundwater resources, raising cost of pumped water by a buffer value to the aquifer resource and using surface storage looked most promising.
This paper analyzed the financial ramifications of differences in seasonal input requirements of ... more This paper analyzed the financial ramifications of differences in seasonal input requirements of cowcalf operations by comparing a defined 90-day calving season to year-round calving. Assuming the same calving rate and labor requirements for both production systems, as well as no premiums for larger, more uniform lots of calves with the controlled calving season, uncontrolled calving resulted in slightly higher returns primarily due to better seasonal forage utilization. However, minimal changes to calving rate, expected calf price premiums, and changes in labor requirements favored controlled calving with returns deemed insufficient for small operators to switch from their current practice.
The effectiveness of hedging volatile input prices for biodiesel producers is examined over one- ... more The effectiveness of hedging volatile input prices for biodiesel producers is examined over one- to eight-week time horizons. Results reveal that hedging break-even soybean costs with soybean oil futures offers significant reductions in input price risk. The degree of risk reduction is dependent upon type of hedge, naïve or risk-minimizing, and upon time horizon. In contrast, cross-hedging break-even poultry fat costs with soybean oil futures failed to reduce input price risk.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has determined that agricultural irrigation in Arkansas’ Delta ... more The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has determined that agricultural irrigation in Arkansas’ Delta is unsustainable with significant negative economic repercussions on producers net returns affected by the Alluvial aquifer. This study examines how irrigation restrictions in that region would affect county net returns to crop production. It also considers the effect of planting less water-intensive bioenergy crops in the event biofuel markets become a reality. A constrained optimization model determines acreage allocations and net returns under three irrigation scenarios: i) no irrigation restrictions, ii) irrigation restrictions that lead to a sustainable Alluvial aquifer, and iii) irrigation restrictions that would lengthen the life of the Alluvial aquifer. Hypothetical switchgrass and forage sorghum crops were then added to model the effect of a biofuel market. If crop production were conducting using irrigation levels that are sustainable, as defined by the USGS, producer net retur...
This study examines how the introduction of dedicated energy crops—switchgrass and forage sorghum... more This study examines how the introduction of dedicated energy crops—switchgrass and forage sorghum—may affect Arkansas’ crop allocation decisions. The study captures crop production practices at the county or crop reporting district level. Results are in a static equilibrium framework and limited to a one-year ahead forecast. The model’s predictive success was evaluated by comparing 2007 model results with no energy crop production to actual acreages harvested. Switchgrass entered land use at approximately $25 and $35/dry ton in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Higher 2008 commodity prices for traditional crops caused lower switchgrass acreage peaks compared to 2007. Further, at higher biomass price levels—$45 to $55/dry ton depending on year and whether or not land charges were applied—the annual energy crop, forage sorghum, surpassed switchgrass acreage primarily as a result of its higher yield. Since acreage supply response is quite elastic, biorefineries will be exposed to significan...
Using life cycle assessment methodology, this analysis evaluates how two carbon reduction strateg... more Using life cycle assessment methodology, this analysis evaluates how two carbon reduction strategies affect cotton plantings regionally and methods used to produce cotton. Because cotton production emits large amounts of carbon, the design of a reduction policy as either excluding soil sequestration through cap-and-trade or including it through carbon offset is likely to affect the success of the policy. A cap-and-trade program that ignores the amount of carbon cotton would sequester in the soil during its life cycle could increase net emissions by rewarding producers whose crops emit limited carbon directly but also sequester little carbon in the ground.
The use of biochar as a soil amendment has fostered much attention in recent years due to its pot... more The use of biochar as a soil amendment has fostered much attention in recent years due to its potential of improving the chemical, physical, and biological properties of agricultural soils and/or soilless substrates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the chemical properties of feedstocks, common in the southeast United States, and their resulting biochar products (after being torrefied) and determine if the chemical properties were within suitable ranges for growers to use the biochar products as root substrate components. Poultry litter biochar produced at 400 °C for 2 hours had a higher total phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sulfur (S), chloride (Cl), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), molybdenum (Mo), sodium (Na), and zinc (Zn) concentration than biochar made using the same process with mixed hard wood species, miscanthus (Miscanthus capensis), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) gin trash, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), rice (Oryza sativa) hul...
With the Waxman-Markey Bill passing the House and the administration's push to reduce carbon ... more With the Waxman-Markey Bill passing the House and the administration's push to reduce carbon emissions, the likelihood of the implementation of some form of a carbon emissions policy is increasing. This study estimates the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the six largest row crops produced in Arkansas using 57 different production practices predominantly used and documented by the University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service. From these GHG emission estimates, a baseline state “carbon footprint” was estimated and a hypothetical GHG emissions reduction of 5, 10, and 20 percent was levied on Arkansas agriculture using a cap-and-trade method. Using current production technology and traditional land use choices, results show that the trading of carbon-emitting permits to reduce statewide GHG emissions by 5 percent from the baseline would enhance GHG emissions efficiency measured as net crop farm income generated per unit of carbon emissions created. The 5 percent reduction ...
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2010
The U.S. Geological Survey has determined that irrigation in Arkansas' Delta is unsustainable... more The U.S. Geological Survey has determined that irrigation in Arkansas' Delta is unsustainable. This study examines how irrigation restrictions would affect county net returns to crop production. It also considers the effect of planting less water-intensive bioenergy crops—switchgrass and forage sorghum—in the event biofuel markets become a reality. Results suggest that sustainable irrigation restrictions without bioenergy crops would decrease producer returns by 28% in the region. Introducing these alternative crops would both reduce groundwater use and may restore state producer returns, albeit with significant spatial income redistribution to crop production throughout the state.
A biophysical model, GRAZE, is used to simulate beef forage performance for stocker steers pastur... more A biophysical model, GRAZE, is used to simulate beef forage performance for stocker steers pastured on common bermudagrass. Eight alternative stocking rates, ranging from low to high grazing intensity, are simulated over 14 'states of nature" using historical weather data The impact of weather variability on animal weight gain and economic performance is Assessed and empirical cumulative distributions of net returns are developed. The risk efficient stocking rate strategies are identified for alternative decision-maker risk attitudes using generalized stochastic dominance. Under improved pasture conditions in Arkansas, results show that (a) expected weight gain per head is hugely independent of grazing intensity until a critical stocking rate (6 hd/ha) is attained; (b) the highest expected net return per hectare is achieved under a lower stocking rate (10 hd/ha) than one which results in highest expected weight gain per hectare (12 hd/ha); and, (c) an increase in the stocking rate is accompanied by greater production (weather) risk which is reflected in increased variance of weight gain and net returns as well as a higher frequency and magnitude of economic losses.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 2005
A researcher interested in crop yield risk analysis often has to contend with a lack offield-or f... more A researcher interested in crop yield risk analysis often has to contend with a lack offield-or farmlevel data. While spatially aggregated yield data are often readily available from various agencies, aggregation distortionsforfarm-level analysis may exist. This paper addresses how much aggregation distortion might be expected and whether findings are robust across wheat, canola andflax grown in two central, Canadian production regions, differing mainly by rainfall, frost-free growing days and soil type. Using Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation data from 1980 to 1990, this research, regardless of crop or region analyzed, indicates that (i) spatial patterns in risk are absent;, (ii) use of aggregate data overwhehiingly underestimates field-level yield risk; and (iii) use of a relative risk measure compared to an absolute risk measure l•ads to slightly less aggregation distortion. 4nalysts interested in conducting farm-level analysis using aggregate data are offered a range of adjustment factors to adjust for potential bias. , Un chercheur qui s 'int&esse ei l'analyse du risque du rendement des cultures doit souvent composer avec un manque de micro-donn6esprovenant deT'exploitation. Bien qu'il soit possible dobtenir des donn6es sur les rendements spatialement cumul6es aupr&s de divers organismes, ces donn6es peuvent comporter des distorsions importantes. dues a? l'agr6gation des donnýes de base et &tre trompeuses si elles sont utilis6es pour effectuer des analyses a lV'&helle de l'exploitation. Lepr6sent article traite de la quantit6 de distorsion due ii l'agrýgation ti laquelle on doit s'attendre et examiný si les re'ultats obtenus pour le bW, le canola et le lin dans deuxprincipales r6gionsproductrices canadiennes, oil lespr&cipitations, lesjours de croissance sans gel et le type de sol constituent les principales diff&ences, sont robustes ou non. A l'aide des donnees obtenues aLprLs de la Soci&tý d'assurance-r6colte du Manitoba pour la p&iode 1980-1990, lapr&sente 6tude, sans ýgard i la culture ou ii la rýgion analys6e, indique (i) que les profils rýgionaux en matire de risque n'existent pas; (ii) que l'utilisation de donne'es agregees sousestime consid&ablement le risque de rendement; (iii) que lutilisation d'une mesure du risque relatif coinparativement ii une mesure du risque absolu entraine l6girement moins de distorsion d'agrýgation. Afin d'ajuster les donn&es pour minimiser un biais 6ventuel, nous proposons une gamme de facteurs d'ajustement aux analystes int6ress6s ei effectuer des analyses a Nchelle des exploitations a Paide de donn6es agrýg&s.
All rights reserved. No part of this periodical may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or b... more All rights reserved. No part of this periodical may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
The U.S. federal government is currently considering several climate change policies aimed at eit... more The U.S. federal government is currently considering several climate change policies aimed at either reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or increasing carbon sequestration, which would improve agriculture's carbon footprint and net GHG emissions (amount emitted minus amount sequestered in carbon equivalents). Climate change policies may affect agricultural production when they introduce market-based incentives for net GHG reductions, which alter the relative profi tability of various land-use choices. While the precise shape of this future policy is not yet known, the proposals to date suggest that use of existing carbon markets like the Chicago Climate Exchange may increase, which would, in turn, likely increase the market price of carbon. Research that predicts the reactions of agricultural producers to market-based climate change incentives at the county level is thus needed to forecast the likely outcomes of such policy options. Some research has been completed on the ability of agricultural production to sequester atmospheric carbon and reduce emissions (Reilly and Paltsev 2009, Outlaw et al. 2009, McCarl 2007, Parton et al. 1987), but the literature on spatial, county-level, crop-specifi c estimates of carbon footprints is sparse. One example related to this study is Nalley, Popp, and Fortin (2011). They estimated carbon-equivalent (CE) emissions for the six largest crops in Arkansas (rice, corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and sorghum) plus pasture and hay. Subsequent analyses examined carbon sequestration for these crops (Nalley and Popp 2010, Popp et al. 2011). Those analyses took soil textures, yields, and the physiological parameters of the crops into account at the county level but evaluated only traditional land-use choices. The effect of alternative crops intended specifi cally to reduce net GHG emissions was needed to determine their potential impact on land reallocations, net returns, GHG emissions, and sequestration. One of the most promising crop alternatives for Arkansas in this regard is reforestation of marginal agricultural land with loblolly pine. Production of pine emits relatively small amounts of GHGs and can sequester carbon both in the soil and in harvested lumber (Smith 2010). Across county, crop, and production method, this study focuses on the impacts of a potential carbon offset policy on net returns, net carbon footprints, and allocations of acreage when
Biodiesel is an alternative to conventional diesel fuel made from renewable resources such as ani... more Biodiesel is an alternative to conventional diesel fuel made from renewable resources such as animal fats and vegetable oils. The main impediment to widespread commercial development of biodiesel is its relatively high cost compared to traditional petroleum based diesel and its relative anonymity compared to other alternative fuels such as ethanol. Attendant feedstock and output price fluctuations for raw materials, energy and waste by-products as well as access to distribution channels present further challenges that are partially addressed in this research. Although biodiesel is most often produced from soybean oil in the U.S., animal fats (specifically chicken fat and beef tallow) may also serve as feedstocks and in turn reduce exposure to feedstock price risk. To what extent these feedstocks are technical and economic substitutes for soybean oil in the production of biodiesel is at the heart of this two-year proposal. Because this project utilizes Arkansas materials as feedstock...
Groundwater use plays an important role in agriculture where the lack of timely rainfall can lowe... more Groundwater use plays an important role in agriculture where the lack of timely rainfall can lower yields. Policy makers strive to conserve ecosystem services, such as groundwater supply, while at the same time providing for economic growth. We develop a spatially explicit landscape level model for analyzing the ecosystem service and economic consequences of alternative crop mix patterns. The spatially explicit ecosystem service model uses initial aquifer thickness, hydro-conductivity of the aquifer, a digital elevation model, and soil characteristics, among other data, to predict the value of groundwater, surface water quality, and greenhouse gas emissions. The spatially explicit economic model incorporates site characteristics and location to predict economic returns for a variety of potential crop types. By thinking carefully about the arrangement of activities, we find crop mix and surface water storage systems that sustain high levels of ecosystem services and economic returns....
This research models net return and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) implications of bull genetics ... more This research models net return and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) implications of bull genetics on cow-calf operations using conditions reflective of Arkansas farms. Operation-specific details for a representative farm are described and impacts of bull selection on net returns for the entire operation as well as on a per cow basis are calculated. Further, the analysis highlights situations where bull selection could be both profitable and used to mitigate GHG emissions. Results suggest that profitability changes as a result of bull selection were larger than the associated change in GHG emissions. Modeled results indicated that genetic selections that increase birthing difficulty are economically detrimental and increase GHG emissions per pound of beef sold. Finally, changes in breed driven hide color price premiums are relatively consistent over time.
The Tractor Guidance Analysis Model (TGA) was developed to assist small-scale crop and livestock ... more The Tractor Guidance Analysis Model (TGA) was developed to assist small-scale crop and livestock producers, consultants, and extension personnel with analyzing the adoption of auto-steer tractor guidance to improve yields, reduce input use, extend workdays, and thereby enhance the efficiency of machinery and tractor operators. Using the Microsoft Excel® software platform, TGA utilizes default efficiency gain measurements observed at the USDA ARS Booneville Small Farm Research center and/or existing literature to provide a decision-support tool that performs partial budgeting and breakeven analyses for user-specified farm operations. For example, is the decision to invest in less accurate technology at a lower cost more economical than expensive technology with better accuracy? How sensitive are feasibility results to purported efficiency gains when field attributes such as slope and field shape irregularity change? At what level of annual use will the technology pay off with changea...
The third most consumed meat around the world is beef. Despite global demand side growth, cattle ... more The third most consumed meat around the world is beef. Despite global demand side growth, cattle markets experience price cycles related to biological production lags causing variability in cashflow and profitability for producers. Price-driven herd size management strategies thus have received attention. This study adds to that literature by analyzing both price and production risk using three herd size management strategies: i) constant size – holding herd size constant; ii) dollar cost averaging – keeping reinvestment constant by varying the number of replacement heifers retained at a constant long run average dollar total; and iii) moving average – using an uptrend/downtrend price signal to lower/increase production in anticipation of future price declines/increases. These strategies are evaluated with and without weather induced forage availability changes that impact the relative profitability and risk of these strategies over the most recent 2004-2014 cattle cycle. This analy...
Section 7606 of the Farm Bill authorizes the production of industrial hemp for research and pilot... more Section 7606 of the Farm Bill authorizes the production of industrial hemp for research and pilot program purposes. Currently 24 states have laws or statutes that have paved the way for industrial hemp production; however, only four states are in the South. Although previous research has suggested that there are 25,000 legal uses for industrial hemp, there is a lack of timely information regarding the political (social acceptability) and legal and economic feasibility of hemp production for Southern states. The purpose of this poster is to: 1) conduct an extensive literature review to summarize existing legal, political and economic considerations; and 2) identify the primary legal, political and economic challenges and opportunities for hemp production in the South. It is expected that this information will be helpful to policy makers, agricultural producers and the public by providing information about consumer acceptance, cost of production, best management practices and how the ...
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2019
Producers often contemplate expanding or contracting production to take advantage of cyclical cat... more Producers often contemplate expanding or contracting production to take advantage of cyclical cattle price trends. This study quantifies profitability and risk implications of (1) constant herd size, (2) dollar cost averaging, and (3) price signal-based, anticipatory countercyclical expansion/contraction strategies. Weather simulation on forages with different calving season and land use intensity showed fall calving herds with added hay sales from greater fertilizer use and the countercyclical herd size management strategy to be most profitable regardless of weather or time period analyzed. Income risk was comparable to least fertilizer use. Overall, holding herd size constant led to little regret.
We model water use, aquifer recharge and producer returns over 30 years in three watersheds to de... more We model water use, aquifer recharge and producer returns over 30 years in three watersheds to determine impact of modified water cost and construction of reservoirs. To maintain groundwater resources, raising cost of pumped water by a buffer value to the aquifer resource and using surface storage looked most promising.
This paper analyzed the financial ramifications of differences in seasonal input requirements of ... more This paper analyzed the financial ramifications of differences in seasonal input requirements of cowcalf operations by comparing a defined 90-day calving season to year-round calving. Assuming the same calving rate and labor requirements for both production systems, as well as no premiums for larger, more uniform lots of calves with the controlled calving season, uncontrolled calving resulted in slightly higher returns primarily due to better seasonal forage utilization. However, minimal changes to calving rate, expected calf price premiums, and changes in labor requirements favored controlled calving with returns deemed insufficient for small operators to switch from their current practice.
The effectiveness of hedging volatile input prices for biodiesel producers is examined over one- ... more The effectiveness of hedging volatile input prices for biodiesel producers is examined over one- to eight-week time horizons. Results reveal that hedging break-even soybean costs with soybean oil futures offers significant reductions in input price risk. The degree of risk reduction is dependent upon type of hedge, naïve or risk-minimizing, and upon time horizon. In contrast, cross-hedging break-even poultry fat costs with soybean oil futures failed to reduce input price risk.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has determined that agricultural irrigation in Arkansas’ Delta ... more The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has determined that agricultural irrigation in Arkansas’ Delta is unsustainable with significant negative economic repercussions on producers net returns affected by the Alluvial aquifer. This study examines how irrigation restrictions in that region would affect county net returns to crop production. It also considers the effect of planting less water-intensive bioenergy crops in the event biofuel markets become a reality. A constrained optimization model determines acreage allocations and net returns under three irrigation scenarios: i) no irrigation restrictions, ii) irrigation restrictions that lead to a sustainable Alluvial aquifer, and iii) irrigation restrictions that would lengthen the life of the Alluvial aquifer. Hypothetical switchgrass and forage sorghum crops were then added to model the effect of a biofuel market. If crop production were conducting using irrigation levels that are sustainable, as defined by the USGS, producer net retur...
This study examines how the introduction of dedicated energy crops—switchgrass and forage sorghum... more This study examines how the introduction of dedicated energy crops—switchgrass and forage sorghum—may affect Arkansas’ crop allocation decisions. The study captures crop production practices at the county or crop reporting district level. Results are in a static equilibrium framework and limited to a one-year ahead forecast. The model’s predictive success was evaluated by comparing 2007 model results with no energy crop production to actual acreages harvested. Switchgrass entered land use at approximately $25 and $35/dry ton in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Higher 2008 commodity prices for traditional crops caused lower switchgrass acreage peaks compared to 2007. Further, at higher biomass price levels—$45 to $55/dry ton depending on year and whether or not land charges were applied—the annual energy crop, forage sorghum, surpassed switchgrass acreage primarily as a result of its higher yield. Since acreage supply response is quite elastic, biorefineries will be exposed to significan...
Using life cycle assessment methodology, this analysis evaluates how two carbon reduction strateg... more Using life cycle assessment methodology, this analysis evaluates how two carbon reduction strategies affect cotton plantings regionally and methods used to produce cotton. Because cotton production emits large amounts of carbon, the design of a reduction policy as either excluding soil sequestration through cap-and-trade or including it through carbon offset is likely to affect the success of the policy. A cap-and-trade program that ignores the amount of carbon cotton would sequester in the soil during its life cycle could increase net emissions by rewarding producers whose crops emit limited carbon directly but also sequester little carbon in the ground.
The use of biochar as a soil amendment has fostered much attention in recent years due to its pot... more The use of biochar as a soil amendment has fostered much attention in recent years due to its potential of improving the chemical, physical, and biological properties of agricultural soils and/or soilless substrates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the chemical properties of feedstocks, common in the southeast United States, and their resulting biochar products (after being torrefied) and determine if the chemical properties were within suitable ranges for growers to use the biochar products as root substrate components. Poultry litter biochar produced at 400 °C for 2 hours had a higher total phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sulfur (S), chloride (Cl), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), molybdenum (Mo), sodium (Na), and zinc (Zn) concentration than biochar made using the same process with mixed hard wood species, miscanthus (Miscanthus capensis), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) gin trash, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), rice (Oryza sativa) hul...
With the Waxman-Markey Bill passing the House and the administration's push to reduce carbon ... more With the Waxman-Markey Bill passing the House and the administration's push to reduce carbon emissions, the likelihood of the implementation of some form of a carbon emissions policy is increasing. This study estimates the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the six largest row crops produced in Arkansas using 57 different production practices predominantly used and documented by the University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service. From these GHG emission estimates, a baseline state “carbon footprint” was estimated and a hypothetical GHG emissions reduction of 5, 10, and 20 percent was levied on Arkansas agriculture using a cap-and-trade method. Using current production technology and traditional land use choices, results show that the trading of carbon-emitting permits to reduce statewide GHG emissions by 5 percent from the baseline would enhance GHG emissions efficiency measured as net crop farm income generated per unit of carbon emissions created. The 5 percent reduction ...
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2010
The U.S. Geological Survey has determined that irrigation in Arkansas' Delta is unsustainable... more The U.S. Geological Survey has determined that irrigation in Arkansas' Delta is unsustainable. This study examines how irrigation restrictions would affect county net returns to crop production. It also considers the effect of planting less water-intensive bioenergy crops—switchgrass and forage sorghum—in the event biofuel markets become a reality. Results suggest that sustainable irrigation restrictions without bioenergy crops would decrease producer returns by 28% in the region. Introducing these alternative crops would both reduce groundwater use and may restore state producer returns, albeit with significant spatial income redistribution to crop production throughout the state.
A biophysical model, GRAZE, is used to simulate beef forage performance for stocker steers pastur... more A biophysical model, GRAZE, is used to simulate beef forage performance for stocker steers pastured on common bermudagrass. Eight alternative stocking rates, ranging from low to high grazing intensity, are simulated over 14 'states of nature" using historical weather data The impact of weather variability on animal weight gain and economic performance is Assessed and empirical cumulative distributions of net returns are developed. The risk efficient stocking rate strategies are identified for alternative decision-maker risk attitudes using generalized stochastic dominance. Under improved pasture conditions in Arkansas, results show that (a) expected weight gain per head is hugely independent of grazing intensity until a critical stocking rate (6 hd/ha) is attained; (b) the highest expected net return per hectare is achieved under a lower stocking rate (10 hd/ha) than one which results in highest expected weight gain per hectare (12 hd/ha); and, (c) an increase in the stocking rate is accompanied by greater production (weather) risk which is reflected in increased variance of weight gain and net returns as well as a higher frequency and magnitude of economic losses.
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 2005
A researcher interested in crop yield risk analysis often has to contend with a lack offield-or f... more A researcher interested in crop yield risk analysis often has to contend with a lack offield-or farmlevel data. While spatially aggregated yield data are often readily available from various agencies, aggregation distortionsforfarm-level analysis may exist. This paper addresses how much aggregation distortion might be expected and whether findings are robust across wheat, canola andflax grown in two central, Canadian production regions, differing mainly by rainfall, frost-free growing days and soil type. Using Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation data from 1980 to 1990, this research, regardless of crop or region analyzed, indicates that (i) spatial patterns in risk are absent;, (ii) use of aggregate data overwhehiingly underestimates field-level yield risk; and (iii) use of a relative risk measure compared to an absolute risk measure l•ads to slightly less aggregation distortion. 4nalysts interested in conducting farm-level analysis using aggregate data are offered a range of adjustment factors to adjust for potential bias. , Un chercheur qui s 'int&esse ei l'analyse du risque du rendement des cultures doit souvent composer avec un manque de micro-donn6esprovenant deT'exploitation. Bien qu'il soit possible dobtenir des donn6es sur les rendements spatialement cumul6es aupr&s de divers organismes, ces donn6es peuvent comporter des distorsions importantes. dues a? l'agr6gation des donnýes de base et &tre trompeuses si elles sont utilis6es pour effectuer des analyses a lV'&helle de l'exploitation. Lepr6sent article traite de la quantit6 de distorsion due ii l'agrýgation ti laquelle on doit s'attendre et examiný si les re'ultats obtenus pour le bW, le canola et le lin dans deuxprincipales r6gionsproductrices canadiennes, oil lespr&cipitations, lesjours de croissance sans gel et le type de sol constituent les principales diff&ences, sont robustes ou non. A l'aide des donnees obtenues aLprLs de la Soci&tý d'assurance-r6colte du Manitoba pour la p&iode 1980-1990, lapr&sente 6tude, sans ýgard i la culture ou ii la rýgion analys6e, indique (i) que les profils rýgionaux en matire de risque n'existent pas; (ii) que l'utilisation de donne'es agregees sousestime consid&ablement le risque de rendement; (iii) que lutilisation d'une mesure du risque relatif coinparativement ii une mesure du risque absolu entraine l6girement moins de distorsion d'agrýgation. Afin d'ajuster les donn&es pour minimiser un biais 6ventuel, nous proposons une gamme de facteurs d'ajustement aux analystes int6ress6s ei effectuer des analyses a Nchelle des exploitations a Paide de donn6es agrýg&s.
All rights reserved. No part of this periodical may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or b... more All rights reserved. No part of this periodical may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
The U.S. federal government is currently considering several climate change policies aimed at eit... more The U.S. federal government is currently considering several climate change policies aimed at either reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or increasing carbon sequestration, which would improve agriculture's carbon footprint and net GHG emissions (amount emitted minus amount sequestered in carbon equivalents). Climate change policies may affect agricultural production when they introduce market-based incentives for net GHG reductions, which alter the relative profi tability of various land-use choices. While the precise shape of this future policy is not yet known, the proposals to date suggest that use of existing carbon markets like the Chicago Climate Exchange may increase, which would, in turn, likely increase the market price of carbon. Research that predicts the reactions of agricultural producers to market-based climate change incentives at the county level is thus needed to forecast the likely outcomes of such policy options. Some research has been completed on the ability of agricultural production to sequester atmospheric carbon and reduce emissions (Reilly and Paltsev 2009, Outlaw et al. 2009, McCarl 2007, Parton et al. 1987), but the literature on spatial, county-level, crop-specifi c estimates of carbon footprints is sparse. One example related to this study is Nalley, Popp, and Fortin (2011). They estimated carbon-equivalent (CE) emissions for the six largest crops in Arkansas (rice, corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and sorghum) plus pasture and hay. Subsequent analyses examined carbon sequestration for these crops (Nalley and Popp 2010, Popp et al. 2011). Those analyses took soil textures, yields, and the physiological parameters of the crops into account at the county level but evaluated only traditional land-use choices. The effect of alternative crops intended specifi cally to reduce net GHG emissions was needed to determine their potential impact on land reallocations, net returns, GHG emissions, and sequestration. One of the most promising crop alternatives for Arkansas in this regard is reforestation of marginal agricultural land with loblolly pine. Production of pine emits relatively small amounts of GHGs and can sequester carbon both in the soil and in harvested lumber (Smith 2010). Across county, crop, and production method, this study focuses on the impacts of a potential carbon offset policy on net returns, net carbon footprints, and allocations of acreage when
Biodiesel is an alternative to conventional diesel fuel made from renewable resources such as ani... more Biodiesel is an alternative to conventional diesel fuel made from renewable resources such as animal fats and vegetable oils. The main impediment to widespread commercial development of biodiesel is its relatively high cost compared to traditional petroleum based diesel and its relative anonymity compared to other alternative fuels such as ethanol. Attendant feedstock and output price fluctuations for raw materials, energy and waste by-products as well as access to distribution channels present further challenges that are partially addressed in this research. Although biodiesel is most often produced from soybean oil in the U.S., animal fats (specifically chicken fat and beef tallow) may also serve as feedstocks and in turn reduce exposure to feedstock price risk. To what extent these feedstocks are technical and economic substitutes for soybean oil in the production of biodiesel is at the heart of this two-year proposal. Because this project utilizes Arkansas materials as feedstock...
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