Model uncertainty arises from uncertainty about correct economic theories, data issues and empiri... more Model uncertainty arises from uncertainty about correct economic theories, data issues and empirical specification problems. This paper investigates mutual dependence or jointness among variables in explaining the dependent variable. Jointness departs from univariate measures of variable importance, while addressing model uncertainty and allowing for generally unknown forms of dependence. Positive jointness implies that regressors are complements, representing distinct, but interacting economic factors. Negative jointness implies that explanatory variables are substitutes and act as proxies for a similar underlying mechanism. In a crosscountry dataset, we show that jointness among 67 determinants of growth is important, affecting inference and economic policy.
Reproductive externalities are important for fertility behavior in Kenya. We identify from anthro... more Reproductive externalities are important for fertility behavior in Kenya. We identify from anthropology structural forms of social interaction operating across individuals belonging to different ethnic and religious groups on the number of children ever born. We use the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey, combined with primary meteorological data on Kenya, and GMM methods, to show that social interaction effects by ethnicity are important over and above an individual's characteristics such as their religion to explain variations in fertility. Our findings have implications for policy debates in Kenya and in other developing countries about ethnic, religious, and other differences in fertility behavior.
This paper uses insights from the study of self-control in decision-making to remedy the problem ... more This paper uses insights from the study of self-control in decision-making to remedy the problem of self-disconnection among energy prepayment consumers. Self-disconnection happens when consumers exhaust all available credit in their meter and are left without supply of energy. This has serious consequences for the wellbeing of consumers and may increase firms' costs. We design a mechanism composed of a commitment contract and a reminder in order to minimize the number of self-disconnections. We empirically assess this mechanism by examining (1) the determinants of self-disconnection and (2) the choice of different commitment contracts. We show that self-control plays a role in self-disconnection and we are able to identify, in our sample, those consumers who benefit from a commitment contract. Moreover, we find a demand for commitment and an opportunity to save among those consumers who need a commitment contract.
In many applications common in testing for convergence the number of cross-sectional units is lar... more In many applications common in testing for convergence the number of cross-sectional units is large and the number of time periods are few. In these situations asymptotic tests based on an omnibus null hypothesis are characterised by a number of problems. In this paper we propose a multiple pairwise comparisons method based on an a recursive bootstrap to test for convergence with no prior information on the composition of convergence clubs. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our bootstrap-based test performs well to correctly identify convergence clubs when compared with other similar tests that rely on asymptotic arguments. Across a potentially large number of regions, using both crosscountry and regional data for the European Union we find that the size distortion which afflicts standard tests and results in a bias towards finnding less convergence, is ameliorated when we utilise our bootstrap test.
This paper estimates determinants of long-run growth rates of GDP per capita in a cross section o... more This paper estimates determinants of long-run growth rates of GDP per capita in a cross section of countries. We propose a novel Measurement Error Model Averaging (MEMA) approach that accounts for measurement error in international income data as well as model uncertainty. Estimating the model using eight vintages of the Penn World Tables (PWT) together with other proposed growth determinants, we identify 18 variables related to economic growth. In addition, the results are robust to allowing for outliers in the form of heteroscedastic model errors.
This paper examines empirically the impact of reproductive externalities on fertility behaviour i... more This paper examines empirically the impact of reproductive externalities on fertility behaviour in one developing society - Kenya. We examine this issue by quantifying the effects of group membership on the number of children ever born. The focus of this study is the identification of structural forms of social interaction operating across individuals in the context of fertilty behaviour. Although a number of commentators are careful to point out the conditions under which structural forms of dependence may be separated from residual dependence, we also highlight the importance of different expressions of structural dependence. Thus, although in the majority of empirical applications which include social interactions, a single mode of social interaction is assumed, following the typology suggested by Glaeser, we consider a model which includes multiple expressions of social interaction. If the assumption of a single model of interaction is made, erroneously, then it is possible to arrive at incorrect inference
This paper investigates the importance of managerial capital to involuntary insolvency and acquis... more This paper investigates the importance of managerial capital to involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small and medium-sized companies. Given that small businesses are informationally opaque and lack detailed financial data, the role of non-financial factors such as managerial capital has been emphasised. Although the role of managers in determining small firms' longevity has received considerable attention, much of what
... In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the ID... more ... In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large. ... 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted); Di Tommaso, Maria Laura, 1999. ...
DCM (Discrete Choice Models) is a package for estimating a class of discrete choice models. Writt... more DCM (Discrete Choice Models) is a package for estimating a class of discrete choice models. Written in Ox, DCM is a class that implements a wide range of discrete choice models including standard binary response models, with notable extensions including conditional mixed logit, mixed probit, multinomial probit, and random coefficient ordered choice models. The current version can handle both cross-section and static panel data. DCM represents an important development for the discrete choice computing environment in making available a broad range of models which are now widely used by academics and practitioners. Developed as a derived class of Modelbase, users may access the functions within DCM by either writing Ox programs which create and use an object of the DCM class, or use the program in an interactive fashion via OxPack in GiveWin. We demonstrate the capabilities of DCM by using a number of applications from the discrete choice literature.
... Luisa Corrado∗ ... over products and services (see Rossi, Gilula, and Allenby (2001)), survey... more ... Luisa Corrado∗ ... over products and services (see Rossi, Gilula, and Allenby (2001)), surveys of job satisfaction (Kristensen and Johansson (2006)), health (Bago D'Uva, Lindeboom, O'Donnell, and Van Doorslaer (2009); Peracchi and Rossetti (2009); Salomon, Tandon, and ...
This paper investigates the determinants of involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small an... more This paper investigates the determinants of involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small and medium-sized companies. Using a competing risks model and data from the survey database of the ESRC CBR at the University of Cambridge, we draw speci…c attention to the impact of managerial characteristics. The explanatory power of …nancial variables, …rm size, and …rm age, highlighted by previous studies, is con…rmed. In addition, the results indicate that …rms run by entrepreneurial managers with higher human capital and intentions to pursue a strategy of growth have greater survival prospects and are less likely to be forced into insolvency or become acquired.
DCM v1.1 (Discrete Choice Models) is a package, written in Ox, for estimating a class of discrete... more DCM v1.1 (Discrete Choice Models) is a package, written in Ox, for estimating a class of discrete choice models. DCM represents an important development for both the OxMetric and, more generally, microeconometric computing environment in making available a broad range of discrete choice models, including standard binary response models, with notable extensions including conditional mixed logit, mixed probit, multinomial probit, and random coefficient ordered choice models. Developed as a derived class of ModelBase, users may access the functions within DCM by either writing Ox programs which create and use an object of the DCM class, or use the program in an interactive fashion. We demonstrate the capabilities of DCM by using a number of applications from both the discrete choice literature. This document will serve as a manual for DCM.
Model uncertainty arises from uncertainty about correct economic theories, data issues and empiri... more Model uncertainty arises from uncertainty about correct economic theories, data issues and empirical specification problems. This paper investigates mutual dependence or jointness among variables in explaining the dependent variable. Jointness departs from univariate measures of variable importance, while addressing model uncertainty and allowing for generally unknown forms of dependence. Positive jointness implies that regressors are complements, representing distinct, but interacting economic factors. Negative jointness implies that explanatory variables are substitutes and act as proxies for a similar underlying mechanism. In a crosscountry dataset, we show that jointness among 67 determinants of growth is important, affecting inference and economic policy.
Reproductive externalities are important for fertility behavior in Kenya. We identify from anthro... more Reproductive externalities are important for fertility behavior in Kenya. We identify from anthropology structural forms of social interaction operating across individuals belonging to different ethnic and religious groups on the number of children ever born. We use the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey, combined with primary meteorological data on Kenya, and GMM methods, to show that social interaction effects by ethnicity are important over and above an individual's characteristics such as their religion to explain variations in fertility. Our findings have implications for policy debates in Kenya and in other developing countries about ethnic, religious, and other differences in fertility behavior.
This paper uses insights from the study of self-control in decision-making to remedy the problem ... more This paper uses insights from the study of self-control in decision-making to remedy the problem of self-disconnection among energy prepayment consumers. Self-disconnection happens when consumers exhaust all available credit in their meter and are left without supply of energy. This has serious consequences for the wellbeing of consumers and may increase firms' costs. We design a mechanism composed of a commitment contract and a reminder in order to minimize the number of self-disconnections. We empirically assess this mechanism by examining (1) the determinants of self-disconnection and (2) the choice of different commitment contracts. We show that self-control plays a role in self-disconnection and we are able to identify, in our sample, those consumers who benefit from a commitment contract. Moreover, we find a demand for commitment and an opportunity to save among those consumers who need a commitment contract.
In many applications common in testing for convergence the number of cross-sectional units is lar... more In many applications common in testing for convergence the number of cross-sectional units is large and the number of time periods are few. In these situations asymptotic tests based on an omnibus null hypothesis are characterised by a number of problems. In this paper we propose a multiple pairwise comparisons method based on an a recursive bootstrap to test for convergence with no prior information on the composition of convergence clubs. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our bootstrap-based test performs well to correctly identify convergence clubs when compared with other similar tests that rely on asymptotic arguments. Across a potentially large number of regions, using both crosscountry and regional data for the European Union we find that the size distortion which afflicts standard tests and results in a bias towards finnding less convergence, is ameliorated when we utilise our bootstrap test.
This paper estimates determinants of long-run growth rates of GDP per capita in a cross section o... more This paper estimates determinants of long-run growth rates of GDP per capita in a cross section of countries. We propose a novel Measurement Error Model Averaging (MEMA) approach that accounts for measurement error in international income data as well as model uncertainty. Estimating the model using eight vintages of the Penn World Tables (PWT) together with other proposed growth determinants, we identify 18 variables related to economic growth. In addition, the results are robust to allowing for outliers in the form of heteroscedastic model errors.
This paper examines empirically the impact of reproductive externalities on fertility behaviour i... more This paper examines empirically the impact of reproductive externalities on fertility behaviour in one developing society - Kenya. We examine this issue by quantifying the effects of group membership on the number of children ever born. The focus of this study is the identification of structural forms of social interaction operating across individuals in the context of fertilty behaviour. Although a number of commentators are careful to point out the conditions under which structural forms of dependence may be separated from residual dependence, we also highlight the importance of different expressions of structural dependence. Thus, although in the majority of empirical applications which include social interactions, a single mode of social interaction is assumed, following the typology suggested by Glaeser, we consider a model which includes multiple expressions of social interaction. If the assumption of a single model of interaction is made, erroneously, then it is possible to arrive at incorrect inference
This paper investigates the importance of managerial capital to involuntary insolvency and acquis... more This paper investigates the importance of managerial capital to involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small and medium-sized companies. Given that small businesses are informationally opaque and lack detailed financial data, the role of non-financial factors such as managerial capital has been emphasised. Although the role of managers in determining small firms' longevity has received considerable attention, much of what
... In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the ID... more ... In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large. ... 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted); Di Tommaso, Maria Laura, 1999. ...
DCM (Discrete Choice Models) is a package for estimating a class of discrete choice models. Writt... more DCM (Discrete Choice Models) is a package for estimating a class of discrete choice models. Written in Ox, DCM is a class that implements a wide range of discrete choice models including standard binary response models, with notable extensions including conditional mixed logit, mixed probit, multinomial probit, and random coefficient ordered choice models. The current version can handle both cross-section and static panel data. DCM represents an important development for the discrete choice computing environment in making available a broad range of models which are now widely used by academics and practitioners. Developed as a derived class of Modelbase, users may access the functions within DCM by either writing Ox programs which create and use an object of the DCM class, or use the program in an interactive fashion via OxPack in GiveWin. We demonstrate the capabilities of DCM by using a number of applications from the discrete choice literature.
... Luisa Corrado∗ ... over products and services (see Rossi, Gilula, and Allenby (2001)), survey... more ... Luisa Corrado∗ ... over products and services (see Rossi, Gilula, and Allenby (2001)), surveys of job satisfaction (Kristensen and Johansson (2006)), health (Bago D'Uva, Lindeboom, O'Donnell, and Van Doorslaer (2009); Peracchi and Rossetti (2009); Salomon, Tandon, and ...
This paper investigates the determinants of involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small an... more This paper investigates the determinants of involuntary insolvency and acquisition in UK small and medium-sized companies. Using a competing risks model and data from the survey database of the ESRC CBR at the University of Cambridge, we draw speci…c attention to the impact of managerial characteristics. The explanatory power of …nancial variables, …rm size, and …rm age, highlighted by previous studies, is con…rmed. In addition, the results indicate that …rms run by entrepreneurial managers with higher human capital and intentions to pursue a strategy of growth have greater survival prospects and are less likely to be forced into insolvency or become acquired.
DCM v1.1 (Discrete Choice Models) is a package, written in Ox, for estimating a class of discrete... more DCM v1.1 (Discrete Choice Models) is a package, written in Ox, for estimating a class of discrete choice models. DCM represents an important development for both the OxMetric and, more generally, microeconometric computing environment in making available a broad range of discrete choice models, including standard binary response models, with notable extensions including conditional mixed logit, mixed probit, multinomial probit, and random coefficient ordered choice models. Developed as a derived class of ModelBase, users may access the functions within DCM by either writing Ox programs which create and use an object of the DCM class, or use the program in an interactive fashion. We demonstrate the capabilities of DCM by using a number of applications from both the discrete choice literature. This document will serve as a manual for DCM.
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Papers by Melvyn Weeks