The drought of 2018 in central and northern Europe showed once more the large impact that this na... more The drought of 2018 in central and northern Europe showed once more the large impact that this natural hazard can have on the environment and society. Such droughts are often seen as slowly developing phenomena. However, root zone soil moisture deficits can rapidly develop during periods lacking precipitation and meteorological conditions that favor high evapotranspiration rates. These periods of soil moisture stress can persist for as long as the meteorological drought conditions last, thereby negatively affecting vegetation and crop health. In this study, we aim to characterize past soil moisture stress events over the croplands of southwestern Germany and, furthermore, to relate the characteristics of these past events to different soil and climate properties. We first simulated daily soil moisture over the period 1989-2018 on a 1 km resolution grid, using the physically based hydrological model TRAIN. We then derived various soil moisture stress characteristics, including probability, development time, and persistence, from the simulated time series of all agricultural grid cells (n ≈ 15 000). Logistic regression and correlation were then applied to relate the derived characteristics to the plant-available storage capacity of the root zone and to the climatological setting. Finally, sensitivity analyses were carried out to investigate how results changed when using a different parameterization of the root zone, i.e., soil based or fixed, or when assessing soil moisture drought (anomaly) instead of stress. Results reveal that the majority of agricultural grid cells across the study region reached soil moisture stress during prominent drought years. The development time of these soil moisture stress events varied substantially, from as little as 10 d to over 4 months. The persistence of soil moisture stress varied as well and was especially high for the drought of 2018. A strong control on the probability and development time of soil moisture stress was found to be the storage capacity of the root zone, whereas the persistence was not strongly linearly related to any of the considered controls. On the other hand, the sensitivity analyses revealed the increased control of climate on soil moisture stress characteristics when using a fixed instead of a soil-based root zone storage. Thus, the strength of different controls depends on the assumptions made during modeling. Nonetheless, the storage capacity of the root zone, whether it is a characteristic of the soil or a difference between a shallow or deep rooting crop, remains an important control on soil moisture stress characteristics. This is different for SM drought characteristics, which have little or contrasting relation with the storage capacity of the root zone. Overall, the results give insight to the large spatial and temporal variability in soil moisture stress characteristics and suggest the importance of considering differences in root zone soil storage for agricultural drought assessments.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied in order to address the characteristics of... more The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied in order to address the characteristics of current and future agricultural droughts in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPI was applied on spatially interpolated monthly precipitation data at multiple timescales, i.e. accumulated precipitation was considered over a number of timescales, for example: 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. The results show that the 6 month SPI best explains the inter-annual variation of the NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing agricultural drought in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the 6 month SPI was applied to three climate projections based on the IPCC emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the mean drought duration is projected to increase. Furthermore, the droughts are expected to become more severe because the frequency of severe and extreme droughts is projected to increase and the frequency of moderate drought is projected to decrease. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during drought was simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.
Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a firsttime overview of the current and possible future la... more Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a firsttime overview of the current and possible future land and water conditions of a major part of the Eastern Mediterranean region (ca. 100 000 km 2) is given. First, we applied the hydrological model TRAIN to simulate current water availability (runoff and groundwater recharge) and irrigation water demand on a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution. The results demonstrate the scarcity of water resources in the study region, with extremely low values of water availability in the semi-arid and arid parts. Then, a set of four divergent scenarios on the future of water has been developed using a stakeholder driven approach. Relevant drivers for land-use/landcover change were fed into the LandSHIFT.R model to produce land-use and land-cover maps for the different scenarios. These maps were used as input to TRAIN in order to generate scenarios of water availability and irrigation water demand for the region. For this study, two intermediate scenarios were selected, with projected developments ranging between optimistic and pessimistic futures (with regard to social and economic conditions in the region). Given that climate conditions remain unchanged, the simulations show both increases and decreases in water availability, depending on the future pattern of natural and agricultural vegetation and the related dominance of hydrological processes.
Droughts often have a severe impact on environment, society, and economy. Only a multifaceted ass... more Droughts often have a severe impact on environment, society, and economy. Only a multifaceted assessment of such droughts and their impacts can provide insights in the variables and scales that are relevant for drought management. Motivated by this aim, we compared hazard and propagation characteristics as well as impacts of major droughts between 1990-2019 in Southwestern Germany. We bring together high-resolution datasets of air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture simulations, streamflow and groundwater level observations, as well as text-based information on drought impacts. Various drought characteristics were derived from the hydrometeorological and drought impact time series and compared across variables and spatial scales. Results revealed different drought types sharing similar hazard and impact characteristics. The most severe drought type identified is an intense multi-seasonal drought type peaking in summer, i.e. the events in 2003, 2015 and 2018. This drought type appeared in all domains of the hydrological cycle and coincided with high air temperatures, causing a high number and variability of drought impacts. The regional average drought signals of this drought type exhibit typical drought propagation characteristics such as a time lag between meteorological and hydrological drought, whereas propagation characteristics of local drought signals are variable in space. This spatial variability in drought hazard increased when droughts propagated through the hydrological cycle, causing distinct differences among variables, and regional average and local drought information. Accordingly, single variable or regional average drought information is considered to be not sufficient to fully explain the variety of drought impacts that occurred. In addition to large-scale drought monitoring, drought management needs to consider local drought information from different hydrometeorological variables and could be type based. 1 Introduction The Central and Northern European drought and heatwave of 2018 revealed once more the large spatial-temporal footprint and severe impacts of this natural hazard (e.g.
The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the droug... more The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescalesfor example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semiarid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.
Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to... more Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to increase according to future climate projections. In this study the hydrological model TRAIN was used to assess spatially distributed current and future sublimation rates based on interpolated daily data of precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. An automated procedure for the interpolation of the input data is provided. Depending on the meteorological parameter and the data availability for the individual days, the most appropriate interpolation method is chosen automatically from inverse distance weighting, Ordinary Least Squares interpolation, Ordinary or Universal Kriging. Depending on elevation simulated annual sublimation in the period 1986-2006 was 23 to 35 mm, i.e. approximately 80% of total snowfall. Moreover, future climate projections for 2071-2100 of ECHAM5 and HadCM3, based on the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were analysed with TRAIN. In the case of ECHAM5 simulated sublimation increases by up to 17% (26...41 mm) while it remains at the same level for HadCM3 (24...34 mm). The differences are mainly due to a distinct increase in winter precipitation for ECHAM5. Simulated changes of the all-season hydrological conditions, e.g. the sublimation-to-precipitation ratio, were ambiguous due to diverse precipitation patterns derived by the global circulation models.
In Mongolia, water is scarce and the main water generating landscapes are mountain regions which ... more In Mongolia, water is scarce and the main water generating landscapes are mountain regions which are underlain by permafrost and covered by boreal forest or alpine tundra. Recently, permafrost degradation through intense warming posed the question about the effects on hydrological dynamics and water resources. Widespread and drastic changes in land cover through forest fires might have an additional impact on water retention and the stability of permafrost. Therefore, a monitoring program has been conducted that aims to improve our understanding of how climate change and forest fires are influencing mountain permafrost and water resources. The study region includes the transition belt between the steppe, the boreal zone and the alpine tundra of the Khentii Mountains. Extensive measurements of soil-physical, hydrological and climatic parameters have been carried out along transects which stretch across the Sugnugur river valley. First results from our investigations indicate that the...
The paper deals with the simulation of current water availability and irrigation water demand in ... more The paper deals with the simulation of current water availability and irrigation water demand in the semi-arid part of the Jordan River Region. It also includes an assessment of the impact of future climate change on the regional water resources. The investigations are based on the IPCC B2 scenario and cover the scenario period 2070–2099. First simulations indicate drastic changes in the future distribution and availability of the region’s water resources. A projected ca. 11% decrease of future precipitation totals leads to simulated reductions in water availability of ca. 25%, and irrigation water demand would rise by about 22% in order to sustain agriculture at its current extent.
Droughts often have a severe impact on the environment, society, and the economy. The variables a... more Droughts often have a severe impact on the environment, society, and the economy. The variables and scales that are relevant to understand the impact of drought motivated this study, which compared hazard and propagation characteristics, as well as impacts, of major droughts between 1990 and 2019 in southwestern Germany. We bring together high-resolution datasets of air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture simulations, and streamflow and groundwater level observations, as well as text-based information on drought impacts. Various drought characteristics were derived from the hydrometeorological and drought impact time series and compared across variables and spatial scales. Results revealed different drought types sharing similar hazard and impact characteristics. The most severe drought type identified is an intense multi-seasonal drought type peaking in summer, i.e., the events in 2003, 2015, and 2018. This drought type appeared in all domains of the hydrological cycle and coincided with high air temperatures, causing a high number of and variability in drought impacts. The regional average drought signals of this drought type exhibit typical drought propagation characteristics such as a time lag between meteorological and hydrological drought, whereas propagation characteristics of local drought signals are variable in space. This spatial variability in drought hazard increased when droughts propagated through the hydrological cycle, causing distinct differences among variables, as well as regional average and local drought information. Accordingly, single variable or regional average drought information is not sufficient to fully explain the variety of drought impacts that occurred, supporting the conclusion that in regions as diverse as the case study presented here, large-scale drought monitoring needs to be complemented by local drought information to assess the multifaceted impact of drought.
IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 2021
Forest cover is a crucial factor that influences the performance of optical satellite-based snow ... more Forest cover is a crucial factor that influences the performance of optical satellite-based snow cover monitoring algorithms. However, evaluation of such algorithms in forested landscapes is rare due to lack of reliable in situ data in such regions. In this investigation, we assessed the performance of the operational snow detection (SCA) and fractional snow cover estimation (FSC) algorithms employed by the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service for High-Resolution Snow & Ice Monitoring (HRSI) with a combination of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-7/8 satellite scenes, lidar-based, and in situ datasets. These algorithms were evaluated over test sites located in the forested mountainous landscape of the Pyrenees in Spain and the Sierra Nevada in the USA. Over the Pyrenees site, the effectiveness of snow cover detection was evaluated with respect to a time-series of in situ snow depth measurements logged over test plots with different aspects, canopy cover, and solar irradiance. Over the Sierra Nevada site, the impact of ground vegetation was assessed over the under canopy fractional snow cover retrievals using airborne lidar-derived fractional vegetation cover information. The analyses over the Pyrenees indicated a good accuracy of snow detection with the exception of plots with either
The drought of 2018 in Central and Northern Europe showed once more the large impact this natural... more The drought of 2018 in Central and Northern Europe showed once more the large impact this natural hazard can have on the environment and society. Such droughts are often seen as slowly developing phenomena. However, root zone soil moisture deficits can rapidly develop during periods of lacking precipitation and meteorological conditions that favour high evapotranspiration rates. These periods of soil moisture drought stress can persist for as long as the meteorological drought conditions last, thereby negatively affecting vegetation and crop health. In this study, we aim to characterize past soil moisture drought stress events over the cropland of SouthWestern Germany as well as to relate the characteristics of these past events to different soil and climate properties. We first simulated daily soil moisture over the period 1989-2018 on a 1km resolution grid using the physical based hydrological model TRAIN. We then derived various soil moisture drought stress characteristics; likelihood, development time and persistence, from the simulated time series of all agricultural grid cells (n ≈ 15000). Logistic regression and correlation were then applied to relate the derived characteristics to the storage capacity of the root zone as well as to the climatological setting. Results reveal that the majority of the agricultural grid cells across the study region reached soil moisture drought stress during prominent drought years. The development time of these soil moisture drought stress events varied substantially, from as little as 10 days to up to 4 months. The persistence of soil moisture drought stress varied as well and was especially high for the drought of 2018. The dominant control on the likelihood and development time of soil moisture drought stress was found to be the storage capacity of the root zone, whereas the persistence was not strongly linearly related to any of the considered controls. Overall, results give insights in the large spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture drought stress characteristics and highlight the importance of considering differences in root zone soil storage for agricultural drought assessments. 1 Introduction Droughts are naturally (re-)occurring phenomena that can appear in different domains of the hydrological cycle and cause associated impacts (Tallaksen and Van Lanen 2004; Stahl et al., 2016). Because of their multifaceted characteristics, droughts are often classified in different types (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985). One of these drought types is agricultural drought,
Permafrost plays an important role in numerous environmental processes at high latitudes and in h... more Permafrost plays an important role in numerous environmental processes at high latitudes and in high mountain areas. The identification of mountain permafrost, particularly in the discontinuous permafrost regions, is challenging due to limited data availability and the high spatial variability of controlling factors. This study focuses on mountain permafrost in a data-scarce environment of northern Mongolia, at the interface between the boreal forest and the dry steppe mid-latitudes. In this region, the ground temperature has been increasing continuously since 2011 and has a high spatial variability due to the distribution of incoming solar radiation, as well as seasonal snow and vegetation cover. We analyzed the effect of these controlling factors to understand the climate-permafrost relationship based on in situ observations. Furthermore, mean ground surface temperature (MGST) was calculated at 30-m resolution to predict permafrost distribution. The calculated MGST, with a root mean square error of ±1.4°C, shows permafrost occurrence on north-facing slopes and at higher elevations and absence on south-facing slopes. Borehole temperature data indicate a serious wildfire-induced permafrost degradation in the region; therefore, special attention should be paid to further investigations on ecosystem resilience and climate change mitigation in this region.
Livestock production is a socioeconomic linchpin in Mongolia and is affected by large-scale lives... more Livestock production is a socioeconomic linchpin in Mongolia and is affected by large-scale livestock die-offs. Colloquially known as dzuds, these die-offs are driven by anomalous climatic events, including extreme cold temperatures, extended snow cover duration (SCD) and drought. As average temperatures across Mongolia have increased at roughly twice the global rate, we hypothesized that increasing cold season surface melt including soil freeze/thaw (FT), snowmelt, and icing events associated with regional warming have become increasingly important drivers of dzud events as they can reduce pasture productivity and inhibit access to grazing. Here, we use daily brightness temperature (Tb) observations to identify anomalous surface melt and icing events across Mongolia from 2003–2016 and their contribution to dzuds relative to other climatic drivers, including winter temperatures, SCD, and drought. We find a positive relationship between surface melt and icing events and livestock mor...
Knowledge of the duration and distribution of seasonal snow cover is important for understanding ... more Knowledge of the duration and distribution of seasonal snow cover is important for understanding the hydrologic regime in mountainous regions within semi-arid climates. In the headwater of the semi-arid Sugnugur catchment (in the Khentii Mountains, northern Mongolia), a spatial analysis of seasonal snow cover duration (SCD) was performed on a 30 m spatial resolution by integrating the spatial resolution of Landsat-7, Landsat-8, and Sentinel-2A images with the daily temporal resolution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow products (2000–2017). Validation was achieved using in situ time series measurements from winter field campaigns and distributed surface temperature loggers. We found a mean increase of SCD with altitude at approximately +6 days/100 m. However, we found no altitude-dependent changes in snow depth during field campaigns. The southern exposed valley slopes are either snow free or covered by intermittent snow throughout the winter months due to...
Germany does not only have a long tradition in water research, but a very active community of sci... more Germany does not only have a long tradition in water research, but a very active community of scientists and practitioners working on a vast range of ''water topics.'' This thematic issue, which was initiated by four water-related research associations (German Hydrological Society; German Limnological Society; Hydrological Sciences Commission within German Water Association; Working Group Hydrology within German Geographical Society), is a testimony of both the quality and diversity of the water research currently undertaken by Germany's scientific community. Key topics include hydrology and hydromorphology; water quality; aquatic and riparian ecosystems; water in agriculture and forestry; and water management and supply. The manuscripts contained in this thematic issue do not only cover a period of more than two millennia, but also address all types of water resources and a multitude of both established and newly developed methods that help us to better understand the processes governing the hydrological cycle, aquatic ecosystems and the management and operation of various water infrastructures.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2013
The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the droug... more The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescalesfor example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semiarid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.
Mongolia is not only a water-scarce but also a data-scarce country with regard to environmental i... more Mongolia is not only a water-scarce but also a data-scarce country with regard to environmental information. At the same time, regional effects of global climate change, major land use changes, a booming mining sector, and growing cities with insufficient and decaying water and wastewater infrastructures result in an increasingly unsustainable exploitation and contamination of ground and surface water resources putting at risk both aquatic ecosystems and human health. For the mesoscale (≈15,000 km 2) model region of the Kharaa River Basin (KRB), we investigated (1) the current state of aquatic ecosystems, water availability and quality; (2) past and expected future trends in these fields and
The drought of 2018 in central and northern Europe showed once more the large impact that this na... more The drought of 2018 in central and northern Europe showed once more the large impact that this natural hazard can have on the environment and society. Such droughts are often seen as slowly developing phenomena. However, root zone soil moisture deficits can rapidly develop during periods lacking precipitation and meteorological conditions that favor high evapotranspiration rates. These periods of soil moisture stress can persist for as long as the meteorological drought conditions last, thereby negatively affecting vegetation and crop health. In this study, we aim to characterize past soil moisture stress events over the croplands of southwestern Germany and, furthermore, to relate the characteristics of these past events to different soil and climate properties. We first simulated daily soil moisture over the period 1989-2018 on a 1 km resolution grid, using the physically based hydrological model TRAIN. We then derived various soil moisture stress characteristics, including probability, development time, and persistence, from the simulated time series of all agricultural grid cells (n ≈ 15 000). Logistic regression and correlation were then applied to relate the derived characteristics to the plant-available storage capacity of the root zone and to the climatological setting. Finally, sensitivity analyses were carried out to investigate how results changed when using a different parameterization of the root zone, i.e., soil based or fixed, or when assessing soil moisture drought (anomaly) instead of stress. Results reveal that the majority of agricultural grid cells across the study region reached soil moisture stress during prominent drought years. The development time of these soil moisture stress events varied substantially, from as little as 10 d to over 4 months. The persistence of soil moisture stress varied as well and was especially high for the drought of 2018. A strong control on the probability and development time of soil moisture stress was found to be the storage capacity of the root zone, whereas the persistence was not strongly linearly related to any of the considered controls. On the other hand, the sensitivity analyses revealed the increased control of climate on soil moisture stress characteristics when using a fixed instead of a soil-based root zone storage. Thus, the strength of different controls depends on the assumptions made during modeling. Nonetheless, the storage capacity of the root zone, whether it is a characteristic of the soil or a difference between a shallow or deep rooting crop, remains an important control on soil moisture stress characteristics. This is different for SM drought characteristics, which have little or contrasting relation with the storage capacity of the root zone. Overall, the results give insight to the large spatial and temporal variability in soil moisture stress characteristics and suggest the importance of considering differences in root zone soil storage for agricultural drought assessments.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied in order to address the characteristics of... more The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied in order to address the characteristics of current and future agricultural droughts in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPI was applied on spatially interpolated monthly precipitation data at multiple timescales, i.e. accumulated precipitation was considered over a number of timescales, for example: 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. The results show that the 6 month SPI best explains the inter-annual variation of the NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing agricultural drought in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the 6 month SPI was applied to three climate projections based on the IPCC emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the mean drought duration is projected to increase. Furthermore, the droughts are expected to become more severe because the frequency of severe and extreme droughts is projected to increase and the frequency of moderate drought is projected to decrease. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during drought was simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.
Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a firsttime overview of the current and possible future la... more Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a firsttime overview of the current and possible future land and water conditions of a major part of the Eastern Mediterranean region (ca. 100 000 km 2) is given. First, we applied the hydrological model TRAIN to simulate current water availability (runoff and groundwater recharge) and irrigation water demand on a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution. The results demonstrate the scarcity of water resources in the study region, with extremely low values of water availability in the semi-arid and arid parts. Then, a set of four divergent scenarios on the future of water has been developed using a stakeholder driven approach. Relevant drivers for land-use/landcover change were fed into the LandSHIFT.R model to produce land-use and land-cover maps for the different scenarios. These maps were used as input to TRAIN in order to generate scenarios of water availability and irrigation water demand for the region. For this study, two intermediate scenarios were selected, with projected developments ranging between optimistic and pessimistic futures (with regard to social and economic conditions in the region). Given that climate conditions remain unchanged, the simulations show both increases and decreases in water availability, depending on the future pattern of natural and agricultural vegetation and the related dominance of hydrological processes.
Droughts often have a severe impact on environment, society, and economy. Only a multifaceted ass... more Droughts often have a severe impact on environment, society, and economy. Only a multifaceted assessment of such droughts and their impacts can provide insights in the variables and scales that are relevant for drought management. Motivated by this aim, we compared hazard and propagation characteristics as well as impacts of major droughts between 1990-2019 in Southwestern Germany. We bring together high-resolution datasets of air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture simulations, streamflow and groundwater level observations, as well as text-based information on drought impacts. Various drought characteristics were derived from the hydrometeorological and drought impact time series and compared across variables and spatial scales. Results revealed different drought types sharing similar hazard and impact characteristics. The most severe drought type identified is an intense multi-seasonal drought type peaking in summer, i.e. the events in 2003, 2015 and 2018. This drought type appeared in all domains of the hydrological cycle and coincided with high air temperatures, causing a high number and variability of drought impacts. The regional average drought signals of this drought type exhibit typical drought propagation characteristics such as a time lag between meteorological and hydrological drought, whereas propagation characteristics of local drought signals are variable in space. This spatial variability in drought hazard increased when droughts propagated through the hydrological cycle, causing distinct differences among variables, and regional average and local drought information. Accordingly, single variable or regional average drought information is considered to be not sufficient to fully explain the variety of drought impacts that occurred. In addition to large-scale drought monitoring, drought management needs to consider local drought information from different hydrometeorological variables and could be type based. 1 Introduction The Central and Northern European drought and heatwave of 2018 revealed once more the large spatial-temporal footprint and severe impacts of this natural hazard (e.g.
The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the droug... more The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescalesfor example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semiarid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.
Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to... more Sublimation of snow is an important factor of the hydrological cycle in Mongolia and is likely to increase according to future climate projections. In this study the hydrological model TRAIN was used to assess spatially distributed current and future sublimation rates based on interpolated daily data of precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. An automated procedure for the interpolation of the input data is provided. Depending on the meteorological parameter and the data availability for the individual days, the most appropriate interpolation method is chosen automatically from inverse distance weighting, Ordinary Least Squares interpolation, Ordinary or Universal Kriging. Depending on elevation simulated annual sublimation in the period 1986-2006 was 23 to 35 mm, i.e. approximately 80% of total snowfall. Moreover, future climate projections for 2071-2100 of ECHAM5 and HadCM3, based on the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were analysed with TRAIN. In the case of ECHAM5 simulated sublimation increases by up to 17% (26...41 mm) while it remains at the same level for HadCM3 (24...34 mm). The differences are mainly due to a distinct increase in winter precipitation for ECHAM5. Simulated changes of the all-season hydrological conditions, e.g. the sublimation-to-precipitation ratio, were ambiguous due to diverse precipitation patterns derived by the global circulation models.
In Mongolia, water is scarce and the main water generating landscapes are mountain regions which ... more In Mongolia, water is scarce and the main water generating landscapes are mountain regions which are underlain by permafrost and covered by boreal forest or alpine tundra. Recently, permafrost degradation through intense warming posed the question about the effects on hydrological dynamics and water resources. Widespread and drastic changes in land cover through forest fires might have an additional impact on water retention and the stability of permafrost. Therefore, a monitoring program has been conducted that aims to improve our understanding of how climate change and forest fires are influencing mountain permafrost and water resources. The study region includes the transition belt between the steppe, the boreal zone and the alpine tundra of the Khentii Mountains. Extensive measurements of soil-physical, hydrological and climatic parameters have been carried out along transects which stretch across the Sugnugur river valley. First results from our investigations indicate that the...
The paper deals with the simulation of current water availability and irrigation water demand in ... more The paper deals with the simulation of current water availability and irrigation water demand in the semi-arid part of the Jordan River Region. It also includes an assessment of the impact of future climate change on the regional water resources. The investigations are based on the IPCC B2 scenario and cover the scenario period 2070–2099. First simulations indicate drastic changes in the future distribution and availability of the region’s water resources. A projected ca. 11% decrease of future precipitation totals leads to simulated reductions in water availability of ca. 25%, and irrigation water demand would rise by about 22% in order to sustain agriculture at its current extent.
Droughts often have a severe impact on the environment, society, and the economy. The variables a... more Droughts often have a severe impact on the environment, society, and the economy. The variables and scales that are relevant to understand the impact of drought motivated this study, which compared hazard and propagation characteristics, as well as impacts, of major droughts between 1990 and 2019 in southwestern Germany. We bring together high-resolution datasets of air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture simulations, and streamflow and groundwater level observations, as well as text-based information on drought impacts. Various drought characteristics were derived from the hydrometeorological and drought impact time series and compared across variables and spatial scales. Results revealed different drought types sharing similar hazard and impact characteristics. The most severe drought type identified is an intense multi-seasonal drought type peaking in summer, i.e., the events in 2003, 2015, and 2018. This drought type appeared in all domains of the hydrological cycle and coincided with high air temperatures, causing a high number of and variability in drought impacts. The regional average drought signals of this drought type exhibit typical drought propagation characteristics such as a time lag between meteorological and hydrological drought, whereas propagation characteristics of local drought signals are variable in space. This spatial variability in drought hazard increased when droughts propagated through the hydrological cycle, causing distinct differences among variables, as well as regional average and local drought information. Accordingly, single variable or regional average drought information is not sufficient to fully explain the variety of drought impacts that occurred, supporting the conclusion that in regions as diverse as the case study presented here, large-scale drought monitoring needs to be complemented by local drought information to assess the multifaceted impact of drought.
IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 2021
Forest cover is a crucial factor that influences the performance of optical satellite-based snow ... more Forest cover is a crucial factor that influences the performance of optical satellite-based snow cover monitoring algorithms. However, evaluation of such algorithms in forested landscapes is rare due to lack of reliable in situ data in such regions. In this investigation, we assessed the performance of the operational snow detection (SCA) and fractional snow cover estimation (FSC) algorithms employed by the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service for High-Resolution Snow & Ice Monitoring (HRSI) with a combination of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-7/8 satellite scenes, lidar-based, and in situ datasets. These algorithms were evaluated over test sites located in the forested mountainous landscape of the Pyrenees in Spain and the Sierra Nevada in the USA. Over the Pyrenees site, the effectiveness of snow cover detection was evaluated with respect to a time-series of in situ snow depth measurements logged over test plots with different aspects, canopy cover, and solar irradiance. Over the Sierra Nevada site, the impact of ground vegetation was assessed over the under canopy fractional snow cover retrievals using airborne lidar-derived fractional vegetation cover information. The analyses over the Pyrenees indicated a good accuracy of snow detection with the exception of plots with either
The drought of 2018 in Central and Northern Europe showed once more the large impact this natural... more The drought of 2018 in Central and Northern Europe showed once more the large impact this natural hazard can have on the environment and society. Such droughts are often seen as slowly developing phenomena. However, root zone soil moisture deficits can rapidly develop during periods of lacking precipitation and meteorological conditions that favour high evapotranspiration rates. These periods of soil moisture drought stress can persist for as long as the meteorological drought conditions last, thereby negatively affecting vegetation and crop health. In this study, we aim to characterize past soil moisture drought stress events over the cropland of SouthWestern Germany as well as to relate the characteristics of these past events to different soil and climate properties. We first simulated daily soil moisture over the period 1989-2018 on a 1km resolution grid using the physical based hydrological model TRAIN. We then derived various soil moisture drought stress characteristics; likelihood, development time and persistence, from the simulated time series of all agricultural grid cells (n ≈ 15000). Logistic regression and correlation were then applied to relate the derived characteristics to the storage capacity of the root zone as well as to the climatological setting. Results reveal that the majority of the agricultural grid cells across the study region reached soil moisture drought stress during prominent drought years. The development time of these soil moisture drought stress events varied substantially, from as little as 10 days to up to 4 months. The persistence of soil moisture drought stress varied as well and was especially high for the drought of 2018. The dominant control on the likelihood and development time of soil moisture drought stress was found to be the storage capacity of the root zone, whereas the persistence was not strongly linearly related to any of the considered controls. Overall, results give insights in the large spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture drought stress characteristics and highlight the importance of considering differences in root zone soil storage for agricultural drought assessments. 1 Introduction Droughts are naturally (re-)occurring phenomena that can appear in different domains of the hydrological cycle and cause associated impacts (Tallaksen and Van Lanen 2004; Stahl et al., 2016). Because of their multifaceted characteristics, droughts are often classified in different types (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985). One of these drought types is agricultural drought,
Permafrost plays an important role in numerous environmental processes at high latitudes and in h... more Permafrost plays an important role in numerous environmental processes at high latitudes and in high mountain areas. The identification of mountain permafrost, particularly in the discontinuous permafrost regions, is challenging due to limited data availability and the high spatial variability of controlling factors. This study focuses on mountain permafrost in a data-scarce environment of northern Mongolia, at the interface between the boreal forest and the dry steppe mid-latitudes. In this region, the ground temperature has been increasing continuously since 2011 and has a high spatial variability due to the distribution of incoming solar radiation, as well as seasonal snow and vegetation cover. We analyzed the effect of these controlling factors to understand the climate-permafrost relationship based on in situ observations. Furthermore, mean ground surface temperature (MGST) was calculated at 30-m resolution to predict permafrost distribution. The calculated MGST, with a root mean square error of ±1.4°C, shows permafrost occurrence on north-facing slopes and at higher elevations and absence on south-facing slopes. Borehole temperature data indicate a serious wildfire-induced permafrost degradation in the region; therefore, special attention should be paid to further investigations on ecosystem resilience and climate change mitigation in this region.
Livestock production is a socioeconomic linchpin in Mongolia and is affected by large-scale lives... more Livestock production is a socioeconomic linchpin in Mongolia and is affected by large-scale livestock die-offs. Colloquially known as dzuds, these die-offs are driven by anomalous climatic events, including extreme cold temperatures, extended snow cover duration (SCD) and drought. As average temperatures across Mongolia have increased at roughly twice the global rate, we hypothesized that increasing cold season surface melt including soil freeze/thaw (FT), snowmelt, and icing events associated with regional warming have become increasingly important drivers of dzud events as they can reduce pasture productivity and inhibit access to grazing. Here, we use daily brightness temperature (Tb) observations to identify anomalous surface melt and icing events across Mongolia from 2003–2016 and their contribution to dzuds relative to other climatic drivers, including winter temperatures, SCD, and drought. We find a positive relationship between surface melt and icing events and livestock mor...
Knowledge of the duration and distribution of seasonal snow cover is important for understanding ... more Knowledge of the duration and distribution of seasonal snow cover is important for understanding the hydrologic regime in mountainous regions within semi-arid climates. In the headwater of the semi-arid Sugnugur catchment (in the Khentii Mountains, northern Mongolia), a spatial analysis of seasonal snow cover duration (SCD) was performed on a 30 m spatial resolution by integrating the spatial resolution of Landsat-7, Landsat-8, and Sentinel-2A images with the daily temporal resolution of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow products (2000–2017). Validation was achieved using in situ time series measurements from winter field campaigns and distributed surface temperature loggers. We found a mean increase of SCD with altitude at approximately +6 days/100 m. However, we found no altitude-dependent changes in snow depth during field campaigns. The southern exposed valley slopes are either snow free or covered by intermittent snow throughout the winter months due to...
Germany does not only have a long tradition in water research, but a very active community of sci... more Germany does not only have a long tradition in water research, but a very active community of scientists and practitioners working on a vast range of ''water topics.'' This thematic issue, which was initiated by four water-related research associations (German Hydrological Society; German Limnological Society; Hydrological Sciences Commission within German Water Association; Working Group Hydrology within German Geographical Society), is a testimony of both the quality and diversity of the water research currently undertaken by Germany's scientific community. Key topics include hydrology and hydromorphology; water quality; aquatic and riparian ecosystems; water in agriculture and forestry; and water management and supply. The manuscripts contained in this thematic issue do not only cover a period of more than two millennia, but also address all types of water resources and a multitude of both established and newly developed methods that help us to better understand the processes governing the hydrological cycle, aquatic ecosystems and the management and operation of various water infrastructures.
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2013
The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the droug... more The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescalesfor example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semiarid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.
Mongolia is not only a water-scarce but also a data-scarce country with regard to environmental i... more Mongolia is not only a water-scarce but also a data-scarce country with regard to environmental information. At the same time, regional effects of global climate change, major land use changes, a booming mining sector, and growing cities with insufficient and decaying water and wastewater infrastructures result in an increasingly unsustainable exploitation and contamination of ground and surface water resources putting at risk both aquatic ecosystems and human health. For the mesoscale (≈15,000 km 2) model region of the Kharaa River Basin (KRB), we investigated (1) the current state of aquatic ecosystems, water availability and quality; (2) past and expected future trends in these fields and
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Papers by Lucas Menzel