This paper presents a model of migration over time in which potential migrants are located on a H... more This paper presents a model of migration over time in which potential migrants are located on a Hotelling line according to their preferences for migration. We capture the externality of migrating for remnants through the destruction of networks in the source country and the evolution of networks in the destination country. We calibrate the model for the case of ethnic Germans who entered Germany in the 1990s, taking immigration restrictions into account. According to our model, immigration quotas mostly did not deter but defer migration.
If people come to live in a country different from their nation state, due to border shifts, expu... more If people come to live in a country different from their nation state, due to border shifts, expulsion, or migration, they adopt some of the new country's habits after some time. This paper investigates their (return) migration decision when they have been restricted to live in the foreign country for some time and suddenly become free to return to the country of their original nationality. In our model, the population is located in small communities on a Hotelling line. The two poles represent the two nationalities. Utility depends on distance to the pole and to the center of the community someone is living in. Looking at ethnic German migration in the 1990s, we compare basic features of the migration wave with assumptions of the model, compare actual and predicted migration waves and discuss the impact of immigration restrictions.
Migration in the Soviet Successor States * This paper analyzes the migration behavior of ethnic g... more Migration in the Soviet Successor States * This paper analyzes the migration behavior of ethnic groups in the former Soviet Union (FSU) from 1989 to 1999. The two main migration movements have been return migration of ethnic groups to their titular nation and migration of all ethnic groups to the Russian Federation. Using factor analysis, we are able to disentangle the effects of economic wealth, growth, and political reforms on migration behavior. Ethnic sorting is found to be the major determinant of migration, which can explain both return migration and migration to Russia. The emigration behavior of Jews and ethnic Germans is found to be very similar to the migration behavior of ethnic groups migrating within the FSU.
Testing for the Option Value of Migration * Using uncertainty about the future returns to migrati... more Testing for the Option Value of Migration * Using uncertainty about the future returns to migration, the option value theory of migration can explain low migration rates in spite of huge wage differences. This paper presents the theory in a simple two-period framework and uses ethnic Germans in the CIS to find empirical support for it. Since July 1990, ethnic German immigration from Eastern Europe and the CIS is restricted by means of a protracted application mechanism. In our data on ethnic Germans in Russia and Kazakhstan in the 1990s, we use information on the stage of the application process, migration intentions and ethnicity to construct close proxies for the option value of postponing migration and for migration costs. The link between the two is shown to be as theory predicts.
Average education of new immigrants from the East European countries and the former Soviet Union ... more Average education of new immigrants from the East European countries and the former Soviet Union (FSU) in Israel declined during the last ten years. I present a simple two-period model of migration with uncertainty about future conditions in both countries and estimate a reduced form, using data from the Israeli 1995 Census and several years of the Israeli Labor Force Survey. Wages in Israel in each period are the result of a human capital investment decision. In this framework, the return to migrating early is higher, the higher the education of a potential migrant, but education also increases the option value of staying. Estimation of a Cox proportionate hazard model and a discrete time hazard model suggest that human capital investment considerations indeed influence the timing of migration. Other variables that make people migrate earlier are being Jewish, being married, and having no children. Economic conditions in the source countries and in the destination country, which are also included in the regressions, do not seem to matter and cover mainly time effects.
Average education of new immigrants from the former Soviet Union in Israel declined during the 19... more Average education of new immigrants from the former Soviet Union in Israel declined during the 1990s. We suggest that this is because the returns to investment in Israeli human capital increase in the amount of imported human capital. Thus, the more educated invest more, and therefore have an incentive to spend a longer share of their working life in Israel. This translates into early migration. Using data from the 1995 Israeli Census and the 1995-1998 samples of the Israeli Labor Force Survey, we test our hypothesis and find that being high skilled initiates early migration only for migrants participating in the labor market.
Die zunehmende und scheinbar unaufhaltsame Integration vormals nationaler Märkte, sei es im Berei... more Die zunehmende und scheinbar unaufhaltsame Integration vormals nationaler Märkte, sei es im Bereich der Kapitalanlagen oder im Bereich der handelbaren Güter, legt die Vermutung nahe, daß die Bedeutung nationaler Grenzen für Arbeitsmärkte ebenfalls abnehmend ist. Eine Zunahme der Arbeitskräftemobilität über nationale Grenzen hinweg läßt sich erwarten, insbesondere in Teilen der Welt, wie etwa innerhalb der EU, wo es keine formalen Schranken zur Niederlassung und Berufstätigkeit gibt. Und doch wurden die zunehmenden Vernetzungen von Kapital-und Gütermärkten über die letzten Jahrzehnte hinweg kaum von einem merkbaren Anstieg der Arbeitskräftemobilität begleitet.
This paper studies the impact of different payment schemes for public library borrowings in Germa... more This paper studies the impact of different payment schemes for public library borrowings in Germany. The number of borrowings is directly related to the holdings and the financial means of a library. Per medium fees lower the number of borrowings. However, a fixed fee just reduces the number of users. As this is counterbalanced by an increase in borrowings per user, the net effect on total borrowings is zero or even positive. Offering an alternative to a yearly fee for those who borrow only few media does not change results. From that, we conclude that a fee mainly eliminates nominal users and increases the library's effort.
This paper presents a model of migration over time in which potential migrants are located on a H... more This paper presents a model of migration over time in which potential migrants are located on a Hotelling line according to their preferences for migration. We capture the externality of migrating for remnants through the destruction of networks in the source country and the evolution of networks in the destination country. We calibrate the model for the case of ethnic Germans who entered Germany in the 1990s, taking immigration restrictions into account. According to our model, immigration quotas mostly did not deter but defer migration.
If people come to live in a country different from their nation state, due to border shifts, expu... more If people come to live in a country different from their nation state, due to border shifts, expulsion, or migration, they adopt some of the new country's habits after some time. This paper investigates their (return) migration decision when they have been restricted to live in the foreign country for some time and suddenly become free to return to the country of their original nationality. In our model, the population is located in small communities on a Hotelling line. The two poles represent the two nationalities. Utility depends on distance to the pole and to the center of the community someone is living in. Looking at ethnic German migration in the 1990s, we compare basic features of the migration wave with assumptions of the model, compare actual and predicted migration waves and discuss the impact of immigration restrictions.
Migration in the Soviet Successor States * This paper analyzes the migration behavior of ethnic g... more Migration in the Soviet Successor States * This paper analyzes the migration behavior of ethnic groups in the former Soviet Union (FSU) from 1989 to 1999. The two main migration movements have been return migration of ethnic groups to their titular nation and migration of all ethnic groups to the Russian Federation. Using factor analysis, we are able to disentangle the effects of economic wealth, growth, and political reforms on migration behavior. Ethnic sorting is found to be the major determinant of migration, which can explain both return migration and migration to Russia. The emigration behavior of Jews and ethnic Germans is found to be very similar to the migration behavior of ethnic groups migrating within the FSU.
Testing for the Option Value of Migration * Using uncertainty about the future returns to migrati... more Testing for the Option Value of Migration * Using uncertainty about the future returns to migration, the option value theory of migration can explain low migration rates in spite of huge wage differences. This paper presents the theory in a simple two-period framework and uses ethnic Germans in the CIS to find empirical support for it. Since July 1990, ethnic German immigration from Eastern Europe and the CIS is restricted by means of a protracted application mechanism. In our data on ethnic Germans in Russia and Kazakhstan in the 1990s, we use information on the stage of the application process, migration intentions and ethnicity to construct close proxies for the option value of postponing migration and for migration costs. The link between the two is shown to be as theory predicts.
Average education of new immigrants from the East European countries and the former Soviet Union ... more Average education of new immigrants from the East European countries and the former Soviet Union (FSU) in Israel declined during the last ten years. I present a simple two-period model of migration with uncertainty about future conditions in both countries and estimate a reduced form, using data from the Israeli 1995 Census and several years of the Israeli Labor Force Survey. Wages in Israel in each period are the result of a human capital investment decision. In this framework, the return to migrating early is higher, the higher the education of a potential migrant, but education also increases the option value of staying. Estimation of a Cox proportionate hazard model and a discrete time hazard model suggest that human capital investment considerations indeed influence the timing of migration. Other variables that make people migrate earlier are being Jewish, being married, and having no children. Economic conditions in the source countries and in the destination country, which are also included in the regressions, do not seem to matter and cover mainly time effects.
Average education of new immigrants from the former Soviet Union in Israel declined during the 19... more Average education of new immigrants from the former Soviet Union in Israel declined during the 1990s. We suggest that this is because the returns to investment in Israeli human capital increase in the amount of imported human capital. Thus, the more educated invest more, and therefore have an incentive to spend a longer share of their working life in Israel. This translates into early migration. Using data from the 1995 Israeli Census and the 1995-1998 samples of the Israeli Labor Force Survey, we test our hypothesis and find that being high skilled initiates early migration only for migrants participating in the labor market.
Die zunehmende und scheinbar unaufhaltsame Integration vormals nationaler Märkte, sei es im Berei... more Die zunehmende und scheinbar unaufhaltsame Integration vormals nationaler Märkte, sei es im Bereich der Kapitalanlagen oder im Bereich der handelbaren Güter, legt die Vermutung nahe, daß die Bedeutung nationaler Grenzen für Arbeitsmärkte ebenfalls abnehmend ist. Eine Zunahme der Arbeitskräftemobilität über nationale Grenzen hinweg läßt sich erwarten, insbesondere in Teilen der Welt, wie etwa innerhalb der EU, wo es keine formalen Schranken zur Niederlassung und Berufstätigkeit gibt. Und doch wurden die zunehmenden Vernetzungen von Kapital-und Gütermärkten über die letzten Jahrzehnte hinweg kaum von einem merkbaren Anstieg der Arbeitskräftemobilität begleitet.
This paper studies the impact of different payment schemes for public library borrowings in Germa... more This paper studies the impact of different payment schemes for public library borrowings in Germany. The number of borrowings is directly related to the holdings and the financial means of a library. Per medium fees lower the number of borrowings. However, a fixed fee just reduces the number of users. As this is counterbalanced by an increase in borrowings per user, the net effect on total borrowings is zero or even positive. Offering an alternative to a yearly fee for those who borrow only few media does not change results. From that, we conclude that a fee mainly eliminates nominal users and increases the library's effort.
Uploads
Papers by Lilo Locher