Papers by Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid
En este artículo se examina, mediante métodos econométricos adecuados para el tratamiento de seri... more En este artículo se examina, mediante métodos econométricos adecuados para el tratamiento de series temporales de largo plazo, la validez del enfoque intertemporal de la balanza por cuenta corriente para la economía española. Además de contemplar el proceso de generación de expectativas estandar en esta literatura, se considera la posibilidad de que los individuos anticipen cada trimestre los incrementos interanuales que experimentarán las variables. Este segundo proceso no se había considerado previamente en la literatura relevante y permite extraer conclusiones sustancialmente diferentes a las habituales en estudios econométricos previos, admitiendo la aceptación estricta del modelo para el caso analizado.
Routledge eBooks, May 30, 2022
We present a small analytical framework, built in the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (BPC... more We present a small analytical framework, built in the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (BPCG) tradition, tailored to identify how specific financial and structural vulnerabilities of emerging economies (EMEs) restrict their expansion. This framework is applied to shed light on the impact of global shocks and of major macro policy changes in developed countries on the growth path of six economies. As we show, this impact is conditioned by the vulnerabilities and dynamics of their insertion on international trade and capital markets and their exposure to policy changes in the developed centers. Our work shows that the BPCG-approach is a relevant, simple tool to identify EMEs´ challenges in the post-covid 19 era.
Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, 2021
The objective of this article is to improve the most widely used indicator of quality in public i... more The objective of this article is to improve the most widely used indicator of quality in public investment management (the PIMI). The methodology was to use an alternative algorithm to build a new version of the PIMI and calculate it for sixteen Latin American countries. The result is a New PIMI that appears better than the original one, as it has a positive correlation with an objective indicator of the efficiency of public investment, which is not achieved by the original PIMI. We recommend the use of the New PIMI, proposed here, as a control variable in studies on aggregated public investment and its impacts on economic growth and social welfare. One limitation of the New PIMI is that it reflects the quality of public investment management at the aggregate level and based on de jure criteria, thus not capturing key differences that occur at a more disaggregated or informal level. Even so, the relevance, originality and replicability of the New PIMI make it a significant contribut...
Encrucijadas, prospectivas y propuestas sobre la seguridad social en México
The authors would like to thank Pedro Enrique Armendares for his collaboration. It is with deep r... more The authors would like to thank Pedro Enrique Armendares for his collaboration. It is with deep regret that we write this remembrance, as today we are missing Julio. We are doing so, however, with great affection for him, our extraordinary friend, a wonderful person and a brilliant economist with a spectacular academic career, one defined by innovating contributions. In addition to his outstanding contributions as a researcher, Julio was always a highly committed teacher and mentor. Generous yet demanding, he stimulated his students intellectually and motivated them to apply their knowledge in the service of society. Witness to this are the several generations of first-rate economists who passed through his classroom, some of whom had the good fortune to have been his research assistants or have received his supervision on their end-of-degree theses. Julio's contributions to the discipline of economics are the product of a deep commitment to his academic studies, combined with a series of fortuitous coincidences. He graduated from the University of Chile in Santiago, the head office of ECLAC, then at the forefront of economic development thinking. The connection between the two institutions allowed him to study under the preeminent exponents of the Latin American structuralist school. Among them were two of its most prominent advocates: Aníbal Pinto and Osvaldo Sunkel. After graduation and now married to Judith Villavicencio, his dear Pelusa, he set out for Europe where he studied with Michal Kalecki and Ignacy Sachs at the University of Warsaw, and Paolo Sylos-Labini at La Sapienza in Rome. Julio thus studied under the wings of the founders of the two most important schools of heterodox economic thought of the 20th century: Latin American structuralism and the post-Keynesian school. When he returned to Chile, now with his doctorate degree under his arm, he joined the group of social scientists which advised the government of the Unidad Popular, on economic policy, presided over by Salvador Allende. The priceless experience of those years marked his personal and professional life. After the 1973 military coup, Julio and Pelusa went into exile in Cuba, and a year later went to Venezuela, before finally landing in Mexico in 1979. Both embraced our country and our people, growing to become a Mexican couple. Here they saw their daughters, Manuela and Antonia-born in Chilegrow up and devote themselves to research and teaching. Pelusa became a professor in the Department of Sociology in the field of Urban Sociology at the Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (UAM). Julio soon earned well-deserved recognition as one of the best professors and researchers at the UNAM's Faculty of Economics, which he joined at the invitation of two Mexican disciples he had in Chile, Arturo Huerta and Eduardo González. He received numerous awards, including, most notably, the National University Award in 2003. Julio made academic contributions to areas of the upmost importance to the growth and performance of developing economies including, investment and economic growth, employment and productivity, income distribution, and inequality, to name just a few. Consistent with what he taught his students, Julio combined theoretical aspects with statistical/econometric analysis in his research to devise macroeconomic policy recommendations for promoting equitable development. The list of academic journals in which he was published is exceptional,
ResumenEn este ensayo se presentan algunos de los desafios mas importantes que estan pendientes e... more ResumenEn este ensayo se presentan algunos de los desafios mas importantes que estan pendientes en la agenda de desarrollo social del pais, y se sugiere que para avanzar es necesario establecer una Politica Social de Estado. Partiendo de ello, se presenta una serie de politicas viables que conducirian a una mejora sustantiva de bienestar de la poblacion, pero al mismo tiempo se senalan algunos obstaculos para lograrloAbstractThe priority of fiscal policy in Mexico has been, for decades, to register a low or zero deficit. To achieve this goal, the strategy has been based much more on the containment of public expenditure than on strengthening public revenues. This pattern lama of adjustment has led to a situation where Mexico´s government lacks the revenues to adequately meet its commitments regarding infrastructure, social protection and security, inter alia. The incoming administration of President Lopez Obrador will have to arry out, sooner or later. A profound fiscal reform. In t...
Economía UNAM, 2019
The priority of fiscal policy in Mexico has been, for decades, to register a low or zero deficit.... more The priority of fiscal policy in Mexico has been, for decades, to register a low or zero deficit. To achieve this goal, the strategy has been based much more on the containment of public expenditure than on strengthening public revenues. This pattern lama of adjustment has led to a situation where Mexico´s government lacks the revenues to adequately meet its commitments regarding infrastructure, social protection and security, inter alia. The incoming administration of President Lopez Obrador will have to arry out, sooner or later. A profound fiscal reform. In this essay we identify its key challenges and we also present some policy recommendations.
El presente cuaderno sintetiza los argumentos expuestos en el foro “Análisis del Paquete Económic... more El presente cuaderno sintetiza los argumentos expuestos en el foro “Análisis del Paquete Económico 2020”, llevado a cabo en el Senado de la República el 15 de octubre de 2019.
Investigacion Economica, 2015
Investigación Económica, 2015
Metroeconomica, 2006
ABSTRACTThe objective of this paper is to show how Mexico’s strategy of financial deregulation an... more ABSTRACTThe objective of this paper is to show how Mexico’s strategy of financial deregulation and liberalization set the stage for the crisis that the country suffered in December 1994. The theoretical underpinning is Post‐Keynesian, and more precisely, a Minsky‐inspired analytical perspective extended to the open economy. In the first section the authors carry out a theoretical discussion dealing with some Post‐Keynesian theories of the business cycle. A second section is devoted to examining and identifying the stylized facts in the evolution of the Mexican economy, with special emphasis on the interaction between the financial and real variables. In the last section the authors propose a simplified model which shows how and why a strategy of financial deregulation and liberalization may lead to financial fragility and to a crisis.
National Innovation Systems, Social Inclusion and Development
The book has a strong theoretical foundation with empirical illustrations from diverse Latin Amer... more The book has a strong theoretical foundation with empirical illustrations from diverse Latin American countries. As a whole, it offers a comprehensive exploration of the foundations of the theory of National Innovation Systems. The authors explore the particular problems that many Latin American countries have faced when trying to build innovation systems associated with development strategies, particularly those that take into account social inclusion.
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Papers by Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid