Three decades have passed since A. F. Jenkinson found the general solution to the Stability Postu... more Three decades have passed since A. F. Jenkinson found the general solution to the Stability Postulate, which is the condition that all the extremes must meet, and after him that solution has been called the general extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV distribution has been widely used in flood frequency analysis, but rarely has been applied to drought frequency analysis. This is the topic of the paper. Furthermore, estimation procedures to obtain its - parameters are included in the text of the paper. The methods depicted are: moments, maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments. Finally, the results of application of the GEV distribution to a region in Northwestern Mexico are reported, too.
The maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for the parameters, quantiles and confidence limits, using... more The maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for the parameters, quantiles and confidence limits, using the general extreme value distribution for the minima (GEVM), is presented towards its application in low flow frequency analysis. The procedures to compute the parameters, design events (quantiles) for several return periods and their confidence limits are shown in the paper. Three measures of goodness of fit tests are contained in the paper to compare the proposed methodology with other models in competition. A full example of application is presented in the paper to show how easy is to apply the proposed methodology by using a common spreadsheets environment of Excel ® (Excel is a trademark of Microsoft, Inc.).
... Flodro: A User Friendly Personal Computer Package. by Jose A. Raynal-Villasenor , M.ASCE and ... more ... Flodro: A User Friendly Personal Computer Package. by Jose A. Raynal-Villasenor , M.ASCE and Carlos A. Escalante-Sandoval pp. 588-592 Purchase Information Permissions for Reuse Document type: Conference Proceeding Paper. Part of: Water Resources Engineering. ...
Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Nov 1, 1998
Every year, floods take lives and damage properties in many parts of the World. A mean of reducin... more Every year, floods take lives and damage properties in many parts of the World. A mean of reducing the damages caused by floods is with an adequate estimation of probable flows based on the probabilities of these events. For this purpose, a trivariate extreme value ...
Durante varios años se ha discutido si existe un cambio climático global y, si lo hay, cuál es su... more Durante varios años se ha discutido si existe un cambio climático global y, si lo hay, cuál es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoración del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC, 2007)-el IPCC es parte de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU)-se precisó que hay un cambio climático global en desarrollo y la causa inequívoca que lo está produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, también se habló en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se está calentando. En el presente artículo, se da información relevante al cambio climático global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.
The probability weighted moment (PWM) estimators for the parameters and quantiles, using the gene... more The probability weighted moment (PWM) estimators for the parameters and quantiles, using the general extreme value distribution for the minima (GEVM), is presented towards its application in low flow frequency analysis. The procedures to compute the parameters and design events (quantiles) for several return periods are shown in the paper. Two measures of goodness of fit tests are contained in the paper to compare the proposed methodology with other models in competition. A full example of application is presented in the paper to show how easy is to apply the proposed methodology.
The method of maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of the two populations general ext... more The method of maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of the two populations general extreme value (TPGEV) probability distribution function for the maxima is presented for the case of flood frequency analysis. The proposed methodology is compared with widely used models, namely: two component extreme value (TCEV), general extreme value (GEV) and Gumbel distributions. The TPGEV distribution behaved well for those selected sets of data in Northwestern Mexico and the results of this distribution proved to be better than the TCEV model, when there are two populations present in the flood sample of data. The paper contains several numerical examples of the application of the proposed methodology.
Flood frequency analysis downstream of the junction of two rivers, when flood information is avai... more Flood frequency analysis downstream of the junction of two rivers, when flood information is available upstream of the confluence, has been achieved only for the case of complete dependence explored through the use of probabilistic models based on the bivariate extreme value distributions (Logistic model). The model is constructed through the convolution ofthe two random variables, namely the extreme flows upstream of the confluence, and constitutes an approximation of the actual physical process, which might be represented through a model to reproduce the convolution of the mean daily flows. This model is in the domain of the serially correlated models, given the fact that the random variables cannot be assumed independents nor nonserially correlated any longer. The degree of approximation of the model to the real process is shown through the application to an actual set of data and the results show a good agreement between the model output and the real data. Finally, the suitability of the model for practical applications, given its mathematical ease and the very small requirements of computer time, are also shown.
In less than 200 years, the Aztec civilization progressed from a nomadic tribe to a highly develo... more In less than 200 years, the Aztec civilization progressed from a nomadic tribe to a highly developed society, producing wonderful architectonic developments and creating an amazing capital city: Mēxihco-Tenochtitlan. This city amazed the Spanish conquerors when they first saw it in 1519 AD. The Aztec produced many art products, like sculptures, paintings, and poetry. They made their capital city very comfortable by means of streets, aqueducts, and water-supply and flood-control works. Water was very important in all aspects of their lives. In their religion, the water god, Tlaloc, had the same level of importance as their most important god called Huitzilopochtli, the Sun god and the so-called left-handed hummingbird. This chapter describes the main hydrologic and hydraulic works of the Aztecs, and it explains the relationship between their water gods and their culture.
The watershed of the Conchos River is the main watershed of the state of Chihuahua, Mexico, and i... more The watershed of the Conchos River is the main watershed of the state of Chihuahua, Mexico, and it is the main source of water of the watershed of the Grande river downstream El Paso, Texas. Such part of the watershed of the Grande River is also the border between Mexico and the United States of America, from El Paso-Ciudad Juarez
International journal of engineering research and technology, Jan 24, 2014
The process of identification of discrete kernels of unit hydrographs is an important step in its... more The process of identification of discrete kernels of unit hydrographs is an important step in its application to flood forecast. The process of discrete kernels estimation of unit hydrographs has several interesting features, like the overestimation condition that appears when there are more equations than variables to be estimated, this condition often produces negative ordinates of the unit hydrograph and sometimes produces changing values that give oscillating values on the unit hydrograph. In order to avoid such undesirable outcomes, it is proposed in the paper to use the well-known Rosenbrock´s non-linear multi-variable optimization procedure in the estimation phase of the ordinates of unit hydrographs coupled with an objective function that minimize the sum of the squared errors between the forecasted and actual direct runoff hydrographs. Two examples of application are contained in the paper and through them the applicability and the goodness of fit of the proposed methodology is depicted.
International journal of engineering research and technology, Sep 23, 2013
A methodology for obtaining the confidence limits for the two populations extreme value type I di... more A methodology for obtaining the confidence limits for the two populations extreme value type I distribution is presented. The methodology is based on the application of the maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the distribution and the confidence limits of the design events. The confidence limits are obtained by using of the variance-covariance matrix of the parameters and assuming a normality of the design events to compute them. Given the complexity of the likelihood function, its logarithmic form is used and a non-linear multivariable constrained optimization method is applied to maximize such function to produce the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters and its confidence limits of the distribution. An example of application of the proposed methodology is contained in the paper. The results showed an improvement in the standard error of fit and confidence limits narrower than those produced by the one population procedure.
Ingeniería Investigación y Tecnología, Oct 1, 2011
Durante varios años se ha discutido si existe un cambio climático global y, si lo hay, cuál es su... more Durante varios años se ha discutido si existe un cambio climático global y, si lo hay, cuál es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoración del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC, 2007)-el IPCC es parte de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU)-se precisó que hay un cambio climático global en desarrollo y la causa inequívoca que lo está produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, también se habló en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se está calentando. En el presente artículo, se da información relevante al cambio climático global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.
Three decades have passed since A. F. Jenkinson found the general solution to the Stability Postu... more Three decades have passed since A. F. Jenkinson found the general solution to the Stability Postulate, which is the condition that all the extremes must meet, and after him that solution has been called the general extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV distribution has been widely used in flood frequency analysis, but rarely has been applied to drought frequency analysis. This is the topic of the paper. Furthermore, estimation procedures to obtain its - parameters are included in the text of the paper. The methods depicted are: moments, maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments. Finally, the results of application of the GEV distribution to a region in Northwestern Mexico are reported, too.
The maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for the parameters, quantiles and confidence limits, using... more The maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for the parameters, quantiles and confidence limits, using the general extreme value distribution for the minima (GEVM), is presented towards its application in low flow frequency analysis. The procedures to compute the parameters, design events (quantiles) for several return periods and their confidence limits are shown in the paper. Three measures of goodness of fit tests are contained in the paper to compare the proposed methodology with other models in competition. A full example of application is presented in the paper to show how easy is to apply the proposed methodology by using a common spreadsheets environment of Excel ® (Excel is a trademark of Microsoft, Inc.).
... Flodro: A User Friendly Personal Computer Package. by Jose A. Raynal-Villasenor , M.ASCE and ... more ... Flodro: A User Friendly Personal Computer Package. by Jose A. Raynal-Villasenor , M.ASCE and Carlos A. Escalante-Sandoval pp. 588-592 Purchase Information Permissions for Reuse Document type: Conference Proceeding Paper. Part of: Water Resources Engineering. ...
Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Nov 1, 1998
Every year, floods take lives and damage properties in many parts of the World. A mean of reducin... more Every year, floods take lives and damage properties in many parts of the World. A mean of reducing the damages caused by floods is with an adequate estimation of probable flows based on the probabilities of these events. For this purpose, a trivariate extreme value ...
Durante varios años se ha discutido si existe un cambio climático global y, si lo hay, cuál es su... more Durante varios años se ha discutido si existe un cambio climático global y, si lo hay, cuál es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoración del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC, 2007)-el IPCC es parte de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU)-se precisó que hay un cambio climático global en desarrollo y la causa inequívoca que lo está produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, también se habló en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se está calentando. En el presente artículo, se da información relevante al cambio climático global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.
The probability weighted moment (PWM) estimators for the parameters and quantiles, using the gene... more The probability weighted moment (PWM) estimators for the parameters and quantiles, using the general extreme value distribution for the minima (GEVM), is presented towards its application in low flow frequency analysis. The procedures to compute the parameters and design events (quantiles) for several return periods are shown in the paper. Two measures of goodness of fit tests are contained in the paper to compare the proposed methodology with other models in competition. A full example of application is presented in the paper to show how easy is to apply the proposed methodology.
The method of maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of the two populations general ext... more The method of maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of the two populations general extreme value (TPGEV) probability distribution function for the maxima is presented for the case of flood frequency analysis. The proposed methodology is compared with widely used models, namely: two component extreme value (TCEV), general extreme value (GEV) and Gumbel distributions. The TPGEV distribution behaved well for those selected sets of data in Northwestern Mexico and the results of this distribution proved to be better than the TCEV model, when there are two populations present in the flood sample of data. The paper contains several numerical examples of the application of the proposed methodology.
Flood frequency analysis downstream of the junction of two rivers, when flood information is avai... more Flood frequency analysis downstream of the junction of two rivers, when flood information is available upstream of the confluence, has been achieved only for the case of complete dependence explored through the use of probabilistic models based on the bivariate extreme value distributions (Logistic model). The model is constructed through the convolution ofthe two random variables, namely the extreme flows upstream of the confluence, and constitutes an approximation of the actual physical process, which might be represented through a model to reproduce the convolution of the mean daily flows. This model is in the domain of the serially correlated models, given the fact that the random variables cannot be assumed independents nor nonserially correlated any longer. The degree of approximation of the model to the real process is shown through the application to an actual set of data and the results show a good agreement between the model output and the real data. Finally, the suitability of the model for practical applications, given its mathematical ease and the very small requirements of computer time, are also shown.
In less than 200 years, the Aztec civilization progressed from a nomadic tribe to a highly develo... more In less than 200 years, the Aztec civilization progressed from a nomadic tribe to a highly developed society, producing wonderful architectonic developments and creating an amazing capital city: Mēxihco-Tenochtitlan. This city amazed the Spanish conquerors when they first saw it in 1519 AD. The Aztec produced many art products, like sculptures, paintings, and poetry. They made their capital city very comfortable by means of streets, aqueducts, and water-supply and flood-control works. Water was very important in all aspects of their lives. In their religion, the water god, Tlaloc, had the same level of importance as their most important god called Huitzilopochtli, the Sun god and the so-called left-handed hummingbird. This chapter describes the main hydrologic and hydraulic works of the Aztecs, and it explains the relationship between their water gods and their culture.
The watershed of the Conchos River is the main watershed of the state of Chihuahua, Mexico, and i... more The watershed of the Conchos River is the main watershed of the state of Chihuahua, Mexico, and it is the main source of water of the watershed of the Grande river downstream El Paso, Texas. Such part of the watershed of the Grande River is also the border between Mexico and the United States of America, from El Paso-Ciudad Juarez
International journal of engineering research and technology, Jan 24, 2014
The process of identification of discrete kernels of unit hydrographs is an important step in its... more The process of identification of discrete kernels of unit hydrographs is an important step in its application to flood forecast. The process of discrete kernels estimation of unit hydrographs has several interesting features, like the overestimation condition that appears when there are more equations than variables to be estimated, this condition often produces negative ordinates of the unit hydrograph and sometimes produces changing values that give oscillating values on the unit hydrograph. In order to avoid such undesirable outcomes, it is proposed in the paper to use the well-known Rosenbrock´s non-linear multi-variable optimization procedure in the estimation phase of the ordinates of unit hydrographs coupled with an objective function that minimize the sum of the squared errors between the forecasted and actual direct runoff hydrographs. Two examples of application are contained in the paper and through them the applicability and the goodness of fit of the proposed methodology is depicted.
International journal of engineering research and technology, Sep 23, 2013
A methodology for obtaining the confidence limits for the two populations extreme value type I di... more A methodology for obtaining the confidence limits for the two populations extreme value type I distribution is presented. The methodology is based on the application of the maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the distribution and the confidence limits of the design events. The confidence limits are obtained by using of the variance-covariance matrix of the parameters and assuming a normality of the design events to compute them. Given the complexity of the likelihood function, its logarithmic form is used and a non-linear multivariable constrained optimization method is applied to maximize such function to produce the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters and its confidence limits of the distribution. An example of application of the proposed methodology is contained in the paper. The results showed an improvement in the standard error of fit and confidence limits narrower than those produced by the one population procedure.
Ingeniería Investigación y Tecnología, Oct 1, 2011
Durante varios años se ha discutido si existe un cambio climático global y, si lo hay, cuál es su... more Durante varios años se ha discutido si existe un cambio climático global y, si lo hay, cuál es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoración del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC, 2007)-el IPCC es parte de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU)-se precisó que hay un cambio climático global en desarrollo y la causa inequívoca que lo está produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, también se habló en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se está calentando. En el presente artículo, se da información relevante al cambio climático global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.
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