There are nearly 200 university research parks in North America. Over the past three decades, the... more There are nearly 200 university research parks in North America. Over the past three decades, these parks have developed into important centers of technology innovation and commercialization. The parks are also major centers of regional employment. The University of Arizona purchased the UA Tech Park from IBM in1994. At that time it was home to just one company employing 750 workers. Today, the Park houses 52 companies employing nearly 7,000 workers. In recent years, there has been great interest in measuring the economic impact of research parks. The UA Tech Park has been one of the pioneers in this effort. To date, we have produced seven impact studies. This study was conducted by Dr. Jaewon Lim, Regional Economist in the UA Office of University Research Parks. His findings are based on a careful methodology using a proven input-output model and with data and information provided by the Park's tenant companies. This study has produced some interesting results. The Tech Park is a major employment center in Pima County drawing its employees from throughout Pima County. The economic impact of the Tech Park and its companies represents 8.4% of the total Gross Regional Product (GRP). Employees of the Park make a significantly higher wage than the Pima County average.
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unexpected-extreme event and has considerably impacted the national a... more The COVID-19 pandemic is an unexpected-extreme event and has considerably impacted the national and regional economies. This paper emphasizes the importance of industrial structure for a region's resistance to the recessionary shock. Two significant factors that may determine the regional industrial structures in this ongoing recession include the relative composition of essential/non-essential sectors and the intensity of face-to-face interactions. Considering these factors, we focus on two groups of industries: essential industry with low interpersonal interactions and non-essential industry with high interpersonal interactions. The specialization in these industries is associated with the regional economic resistance to the COVID-19 induced recession. Estimation results from the ordinal logistic regression models show that essential industries with low interpersonal interactions, especially the retail and service sectors-for instance, non-store retailers and financial and professional service-are significantly related to regional economic resistance, and their relationship intensifies compared to other sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, states specialized in the non-essential industries with high interpersonal interactions are less likely to resist economically during the lockdown-COVID and until the stabilizing-COVID period. In addition, a state that quickly recovered from the 2001 recession is more likely to resist the pandemic shock during earlyand lockdown-COVID periods. Findings in this paper indicate the importance of regional industrial structure to determine the level of vulnerability to unexpected recessionary shocks. Additionally, identifying the vital factors to determine the industrial structure based on the type of shock is found to be crucial.
Prepared for the Office of Coal Development, Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportu... more Prepared for the Office of Coal Development, Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity
The Nevada nonprofit sector plays an important role in the state’s economy. This research report ... more The Nevada nonprofit sector plays an important role in the state’s economy. This research report examines the role of nonprofit organizations in the economy and details regional differences in terms of employment and economic impact in the state.
In this paper we discuss the Sun Corridor concept and then restate the concept in the context of ... more In this paper we discuss the Sun Corridor concept and then restate the concept in the context of a transborder economic development. The Morrison Institute at Arizona State University coined the term Sun Corridor to describe developments in Flagstaff, Phoenix, Tucson and Nogales and the interstitial spaces between them. Applying the Morrison Institute's methodology to the transborder megaregion we identify and describe the subregions, realms and nodes together with their internal and external challenges. In evaluating the benefits of the transborder Sun Corridor as a model for binational economic development we draw attention to legacies and lessons of an earlier model of binational crossborder collaboration in economic development known as the Arizona-Sonora Region. Arizona and Sonora have had a long tradition of functional and formal ties, and were among the first border states to strategize crossborder economic development within the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) framework in the early 1990s.
Since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, nuclear regulators have strengthened safet... more Since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, nuclear regulators have strengthened safety standards or decided to decommission the nuclear power plant. The vast majority of radiation is from nuclear power plants, so safety measures are also concentrated in nuclear power plants. Radioactive materials located much closer to the people are scattered around the nation. However, it is difficult for citizens to predict the radiation risk around them because regulatory agencies do not provide adequate information on radiation. The main goal of this study is to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of radioactive materials that serve as indicators for potential risk from a radiological hazard. The empirical findings in this study demonstrate the presence of spatial autocorrelation for the number of radiation licenses among 244 regions in the Republic of Korea. The policy implications are three-fold: (1) it is necessary to improve regulatory governance in consideration of permit...
This study analyzes the recent trends of monthly visitors to the Las Vegas-Paradise-Henderson, NV... more This study analyzes the recent trends of monthly visitors to the Las Vegas-Paradise-Henderson, NV metropolitan statistical area (MSA) for the first five months of 2020. In addition, six scenarios for the seven-month period of June through December 2020 estimate the net loss of visitors to Southern Nevada and the impact for the state economy in terms of employment, income, the total value added (contribution to Gross State Product), output sales, and state and local tax revenues. The counter-factual scenario-projecting the regional economy if no COVID-19 outbreak occurred-serves as a baseline scenario that allows measurement of the net economic losses from a significantly reduced number of visitors to Las Vegas due to the coronavirus pandemic. Finally, this study proposes three forecasted recovery paths for the tourism industry in Las Vegas, in terms of the number of predicted visitors for future years.
In the 2011 report, "Unify, Regionalize, Diversify," The Brookings Institution, SRI International... more In the 2011 report, "Unify, Regionalize, Diversify," The Brookings Institution, SRI International, and Brookings Mountain West detailed Las Vegas's experiences during and after the Great Recession, and identified the health and medical industry as a particularly potent opportunity for economic diversification-one that could improve health outcomes while also generating sustainable economic activity and high-quality jobs. The Las Vegas Metro medical industry began growing in 2006, grew during the Great Recession, and is expected to continue to grow for the next 10-year period spurred by the rapidly growing population in Southern Nevada. Why expand the health and medical industry in Las Vegas? ▪ A 2013 Tripp Umbach report indicated that a four-year allopathic medical school was needed to improve current healthcare needs and future needs. ▪ The Las Vegas metro is projected to surpass 2.7 million residents by 2030. ▪ Developing and diversifying the local medical industry is crucial to serve the local community's health care needs. ▪ Improving health care makes the region more attractive to other economic development initiatives (e.g. the relocation of major firms). The establishment and launch of the UNLV School of Medicine in 2014 brings a much-needed and long overdue asset to Southern Nevada's health care landscape. To understand the larger impact of the UNLV School of Medicine, this policy brief explores 5 development scenarios of the Las Vegas regional economy, based on the growth patterns in comparable metropolitan areas after the establishment of a medical school: (1) Phoenix, (2) Orlando, (3) Denver, (4) Kansas City, and (5) Tucson.
This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on mass tourism concentrations, such as Las Vegas. It ... more This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on mass tourism concentrations, such as Las Vegas. It argues that health risks and perceptions may induce a more deconcentrated pattern of mass tourism, with more geographical dispersion to rural and natural areas. The analytical framework is modeled and applied to extensive data on Las Vegas tourism. The proposition on deconcentrated tourism concentrations is confirmed. Pre-pandemic outer-inner city complementary relations between “Outdoor Activities” in 11 surrounding national parks and the “Gaming Industry” in Las Vegas have transformed into outer-inner city substitution relations in the COVID-19 pandemic. This represents the evolving deconcentration of tourism concentration facing the growing uncertainty in an inner-city due to health risks in a pandemic. Availability of diversified tourism resources may dampen the shock to a concentrated tourism destination such as Las Vegas when effectively linked to the decentralized but easily acces...
The construction industry, one of the largest job providers in the U.S., is suffering from critic... more The construction industry, one of the largest job providers in the U.S., is suffering from critical problems pertaining to labor shortage in the workforce. The researchers have recognized as a critical issue an insufficient interest and poorly sustained participation in the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry by underrepresented demographic groups. To address the issue of workforce income inequality and bias, the industry must be able to understand the current situation regarding inequality and pinpoint some of the basic problems. To address this need, this study analyzes current inequality within the construction workforce by race/ethnicity and gender. The preliminary results of the study show that White construction workers are, in average, 16.2 times more than African Americans and 3.6 times more than Hispanics in average, African Americans being the least in number in the construction workforce. Also, the study shows that men in construction workforce, on average, earn 4.2% more than women in the years sampled. Our trend analysis shows that these gaps relating to the number of employed personnel and median weekly earnings did not change.
This paper uses a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) approach to highlight the spatial and social... more This paper uses a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) approach to highlight the spatial and social heterogeneity in the economic impact of federally-funded research and development (R&D) investments in the state of Arizona. Overall, the $ 526.9 million allocated to the state in 2010 have led to a statewide output multiplier of 2.18. However, the multiplier effects vary across the two largest metro areas (Phoenix and Tucson) and across socio-economic groups. Indeed, our calculations find returns that are between 0.23 to 0.88 point greater in Phoenix than in Tucson. The “rest of Arizona” reports an even greater gap w.r.t. Phoenix because of a lack of skilled workers and infrastructure. We also find the presence of social returns as investments in scientific innovation lead to job creation even for the labor force with just a high school degree. However, the main beneficiaries are the workers with the highest levels of education. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the National...
This article applies matrix forecasting methods to the investigation of residential relocation an... more This article applies matrix forecasting methods to the investigation of residential relocation and commuting patterns that are highly interconnected, but often analyzed separately. More specifically, using recent inter-county migration and commuting pattern data for the three largest metropolitan areas in California, it examines how residential relocation and commuting are associated in the regions and whether a unified framework—in which household relocation and commuting flow matrices are jointly determined—can improve the forecasting performance. The relocation–commuting association is found to differ substantially by region, suggesting the importance of region-specific factors in shaping the interrelationship. Joint forecasting, however, can attain a higher accuracy compared to the two separate projections, although the forecasting performance varies based on the method employed.
New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives, 2021
After the legislation of "Special Act on Improvement in Quality of Life for Residents in Agricult... more After the legislation of "Special Act on Improvement in Quality of Life for Residents in Agricultural and Fishing Villages," the South Korean government has been implementing various supporting plans, including programs regarding healthcare, general welfare, culture, and education, to improve the quality of life in rural areas. Moreover, to enhance the support towards vulnerable social groups, the government has been developing demand-driven rural policies, such as "outreach services" and the "advance payments program." Defining service-deprived regions is the most essential for efficient implementation of the policies. However, such efforts have failed to reflect reality because most researches rely on county-level data and
During the 2008 Great Recession, many families with children relied on cash assistance from Tempo... more During the 2008 Great Recession, many families with children relied on cash assistance from Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. The present study applied Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) tools to analyze geographically varying spatial clusters of states’ unemployment rates, TANF caseload growth rates, TANF policy choices such as benefit levels and TANF responsiveness rates to the recession. We analyzed 45 contiguous states and Washington D.C. A standardized TANF responsiveness index was developed to compare states’ TANF growth rates relative to their labor market conditions. The western states were found to be very responsive to the recession with ratios greater than one. In contrast, Texas and Arizona, with ratios below 1, were unresponsive to the recession. The presence of strong spatial clusters in unemployment rate and TANF maximum aid were found. In the case of maximum aid, there was a strong presence of Low-Low spatial clusters in Southern States an...
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unexpected-extreme event and has considerably impacted the national a... more The COVID-19 pandemic is an unexpected-extreme event and has considerably impacted the national and regional economies. This paper emphasizes the importance of industrial structure for a region's resistance to the recessionary shock. Two significant factors that may determine the regional industrial structures in this ongoing recession include the relative composition of essential/non-essential sectors and the intensity of face-to-face interactions. Considering these factors, we focus on two groups of industries: essential industry with low interpersonal interactions and non-essential industry with high interpersonal interactions. The specialization in these industries is associated with the regional economic resistance to the COVID-19 induced recession. Estimation results from the ordinal logistic regression models show that essential industries with low interpersonal interactions, especially the retail and service sectors-for instance, non-store retailers and financial and professional service-are significantly related to regional economic resistance, and their relationship intensifies compared to other sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, states specialized in the non-essential industries with high interpersonal interactions are less likely to resist economically during the lockdown-COVID and until the stabilizing-COVID period. In addition, a state that quickly recovered from the 2001 recession is more likely to resist the pandemic shock during earlyand lockdown-COVID periods. Findings in this paper indicate the importance of regional industrial structure to determine the level of vulnerability to unexpected recessionary shocks. Additionally, identifying the vital factors to determine the industrial structure based on the type of shock is found to be crucial.
The major economic downturn of the Great Recession led many families with children to depend on c... more The major economic downturn of the Great Recession led many families with children to depend on cash assistance from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. In order to capture TANF caseload growth rates relative to their labor market performance, we developed a responsiveness index which revealed that many of the western and midwestern states were quite responsive to the recession. Using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) tools, we found the presence of strong spatial clusters in unemployment rate and in TANF maximum aid. Several states in the western region were surrounded by neighboring states with higher growth in unemployment rate changes than the national average based on ‘Rook Contiguity’ weight matrix. The presence of High-High clusters of the level of TANF benefits was found in Northeastern states whereas the presence of Low-Low spatial clusters was found primarily in Southern states. The present study’s findings have confirmed the idea that spatia...
There are nearly 200 university research parks in North America. Over the past three decades, the... more There are nearly 200 university research parks in North America. Over the past three decades, these parks have developed into important centers of technology innovation and commercialization. The parks are also major centers of regional employment. The University of Arizona purchased the UA Tech Park from IBM in1994. At that time it was home to just one company employing 750 workers. Today, the Park houses 52 companies employing nearly 7,000 workers. In recent years, there has been great interest in measuring the economic impact of research parks. The UA Tech Park has been one of the pioneers in this effort. To date, we have produced seven impact studies. This study was conducted by Dr. Jaewon Lim, Regional Economist in the UA Office of University Research Parks. His findings are based on a careful methodology using a proven input-output model and with data and information provided by the Park's tenant companies. This study has produced some interesting results. The Tech Park is a major employment center in Pima County drawing its employees from throughout Pima County. The economic impact of the Tech Park and its companies represents 8.4% of the total Gross Regional Product (GRP). Employees of the Park make a significantly higher wage than the Pima County average.
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unexpected-extreme event and has considerably impacted the national a... more The COVID-19 pandemic is an unexpected-extreme event and has considerably impacted the national and regional economies. This paper emphasizes the importance of industrial structure for a region's resistance to the recessionary shock. Two significant factors that may determine the regional industrial structures in this ongoing recession include the relative composition of essential/non-essential sectors and the intensity of face-to-face interactions. Considering these factors, we focus on two groups of industries: essential industry with low interpersonal interactions and non-essential industry with high interpersonal interactions. The specialization in these industries is associated with the regional economic resistance to the COVID-19 induced recession. Estimation results from the ordinal logistic regression models show that essential industries with low interpersonal interactions, especially the retail and service sectors-for instance, non-store retailers and financial and professional service-are significantly related to regional economic resistance, and their relationship intensifies compared to other sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, states specialized in the non-essential industries with high interpersonal interactions are less likely to resist economically during the lockdown-COVID and until the stabilizing-COVID period. In addition, a state that quickly recovered from the 2001 recession is more likely to resist the pandemic shock during earlyand lockdown-COVID periods. Findings in this paper indicate the importance of regional industrial structure to determine the level of vulnerability to unexpected recessionary shocks. Additionally, identifying the vital factors to determine the industrial structure based on the type of shock is found to be crucial.
Prepared for the Office of Coal Development, Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportu... more Prepared for the Office of Coal Development, Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity
The Nevada nonprofit sector plays an important role in the state’s economy. This research report ... more The Nevada nonprofit sector plays an important role in the state’s economy. This research report examines the role of nonprofit organizations in the economy and details regional differences in terms of employment and economic impact in the state.
In this paper we discuss the Sun Corridor concept and then restate the concept in the context of ... more In this paper we discuss the Sun Corridor concept and then restate the concept in the context of a transborder economic development. The Morrison Institute at Arizona State University coined the term Sun Corridor to describe developments in Flagstaff, Phoenix, Tucson and Nogales and the interstitial spaces between them. Applying the Morrison Institute's methodology to the transborder megaregion we identify and describe the subregions, realms and nodes together with their internal and external challenges. In evaluating the benefits of the transborder Sun Corridor as a model for binational economic development we draw attention to legacies and lessons of an earlier model of binational crossborder collaboration in economic development known as the Arizona-Sonora Region. Arizona and Sonora have had a long tradition of functional and formal ties, and were among the first border states to strategize crossborder economic development within the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) framework in the early 1990s.
Since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, nuclear regulators have strengthened safet... more Since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, nuclear regulators have strengthened safety standards or decided to decommission the nuclear power plant. The vast majority of radiation is from nuclear power plants, so safety measures are also concentrated in nuclear power plants. Radioactive materials located much closer to the people are scattered around the nation. However, it is difficult for citizens to predict the radiation risk around them because regulatory agencies do not provide adequate information on radiation. The main goal of this study is to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of radioactive materials that serve as indicators for potential risk from a radiological hazard. The empirical findings in this study demonstrate the presence of spatial autocorrelation for the number of radiation licenses among 244 regions in the Republic of Korea. The policy implications are three-fold: (1) it is necessary to improve regulatory governance in consideration of permit...
This study analyzes the recent trends of monthly visitors to the Las Vegas-Paradise-Henderson, NV... more This study analyzes the recent trends of monthly visitors to the Las Vegas-Paradise-Henderson, NV metropolitan statistical area (MSA) for the first five months of 2020. In addition, six scenarios for the seven-month period of June through December 2020 estimate the net loss of visitors to Southern Nevada and the impact for the state economy in terms of employment, income, the total value added (contribution to Gross State Product), output sales, and state and local tax revenues. The counter-factual scenario-projecting the regional economy if no COVID-19 outbreak occurred-serves as a baseline scenario that allows measurement of the net economic losses from a significantly reduced number of visitors to Las Vegas due to the coronavirus pandemic. Finally, this study proposes three forecasted recovery paths for the tourism industry in Las Vegas, in terms of the number of predicted visitors for future years.
In the 2011 report, "Unify, Regionalize, Diversify," The Brookings Institution, SRI International... more In the 2011 report, "Unify, Regionalize, Diversify," The Brookings Institution, SRI International, and Brookings Mountain West detailed Las Vegas's experiences during and after the Great Recession, and identified the health and medical industry as a particularly potent opportunity for economic diversification-one that could improve health outcomes while also generating sustainable economic activity and high-quality jobs. The Las Vegas Metro medical industry began growing in 2006, grew during the Great Recession, and is expected to continue to grow for the next 10-year period spurred by the rapidly growing population in Southern Nevada. Why expand the health and medical industry in Las Vegas? ▪ A 2013 Tripp Umbach report indicated that a four-year allopathic medical school was needed to improve current healthcare needs and future needs. ▪ The Las Vegas metro is projected to surpass 2.7 million residents by 2030. ▪ Developing and diversifying the local medical industry is crucial to serve the local community's health care needs. ▪ Improving health care makes the region more attractive to other economic development initiatives (e.g. the relocation of major firms). The establishment and launch of the UNLV School of Medicine in 2014 brings a much-needed and long overdue asset to Southern Nevada's health care landscape. To understand the larger impact of the UNLV School of Medicine, this policy brief explores 5 development scenarios of the Las Vegas regional economy, based on the growth patterns in comparable metropolitan areas after the establishment of a medical school: (1) Phoenix, (2) Orlando, (3) Denver, (4) Kansas City, and (5) Tucson.
This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on mass tourism concentrations, such as Las Vegas. It ... more This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on mass tourism concentrations, such as Las Vegas. It argues that health risks and perceptions may induce a more deconcentrated pattern of mass tourism, with more geographical dispersion to rural and natural areas. The analytical framework is modeled and applied to extensive data on Las Vegas tourism. The proposition on deconcentrated tourism concentrations is confirmed. Pre-pandemic outer-inner city complementary relations between “Outdoor Activities” in 11 surrounding national parks and the “Gaming Industry” in Las Vegas have transformed into outer-inner city substitution relations in the COVID-19 pandemic. This represents the evolving deconcentration of tourism concentration facing the growing uncertainty in an inner-city due to health risks in a pandemic. Availability of diversified tourism resources may dampen the shock to a concentrated tourism destination such as Las Vegas when effectively linked to the decentralized but easily acces...
The construction industry, one of the largest job providers in the U.S., is suffering from critic... more The construction industry, one of the largest job providers in the U.S., is suffering from critical problems pertaining to labor shortage in the workforce. The researchers have recognized as a critical issue an insufficient interest and poorly sustained participation in the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry by underrepresented demographic groups. To address the issue of workforce income inequality and bias, the industry must be able to understand the current situation regarding inequality and pinpoint some of the basic problems. To address this need, this study analyzes current inequality within the construction workforce by race/ethnicity and gender. The preliminary results of the study show that White construction workers are, in average, 16.2 times more than African Americans and 3.6 times more than Hispanics in average, African Americans being the least in number in the construction workforce. Also, the study shows that men in construction workforce, on average, earn 4.2% more than women in the years sampled. Our trend analysis shows that these gaps relating to the number of employed personnel and median weekly earnings did not change.
This paper uses a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) approach to highlight the spatial and social... more This paper uses a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) approach to highlight the spatial and social heterogeneity in the economic impact of federally-funded research and development (R&D) investments in the state of Arizona. Overall, the $ 526.9 million allocated to the state in 2010 have led to a statewide output multiplier of 2.18. However, the multiplier effects vary across the two largest metro areas (Phoenix and Tucson) and across socio-economic groups. Indeed, our calculations find returns that are between 0.23 to 0.88 point greater in Phoenix than in Tucson. The “rest of Arizona” reports an even greater gap w.r.t. Phoenix because of a lack of skilled workers and infrastructure. We also find the presence of social returns as investments in scientific innovation lead to job creation even for the labor force with just a high school degree. However, the main beneficiaries are the workers with the highest levels of education. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the National...
This article applies matrix forecasting methods to the investigation of residential relocation an... more This article applies matrix forecasting methods to the investigation of residential relocation and commuting patterns that are highly interconnected, but often analyzed separately. More specifically, using recent inter-county migration and commuting pattern data for the three largest metropolitan areas in California, it examines how residential relocation and commuting are associated in the regions and whether a unified framework—in which household relocation and commuting flow matrices are jointly determined—can improve the forecasting performance. The relocation–commuting association is found to differ substantially by region, suggesting the importance of region-specific factors in shaping the interrelationship. Joint forecasting, however, can attain a higher accuracy compared to the two separate projections, although the forecasting performance varies based on the method employed.
New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives, 2021
After the legislation of "Special Act on Improvement in Quality of Life for Residents in Agricult... more After the legislation of "Special Act on Improvement in Quality of Life for Residents in Agricultural and Fishing Villages," the South Korean government has been implementing various supporting plans, including programs regarding healthcare, general welfare, culture, and education, to improve the quality of life in rural areas. Moreover, to enhance the support towards vulnerable social groups, the government has been developing demand-driven rural policies, such as "outreach services" and the "advance payments program." Defining service-deprived regions is the most essential for efficient implementation of the policies. However, such efforts have failed to reflect reality because most researches rely on county-level data and
During the 2008 Great Recession, many families with children relied on cash assistance from Tempo... more During the 2008 Great Recession, many families with children relied on cash assistance from Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. The present study applied Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) tools to analyze geographically varying spatial clusters of states’ unemployment rates, TANF caseload growth rates, TANF policy choices such as benefit levels and TANF responsiveness rates to the recession. We analyzed 45 contiguous states and Washington D.C. A standardized TANF responsiveness index was developed to compare states’ TANF growth rates relative to their labor market conditions. The western states were found to be very responsive to the recession with ratios greater than one. In contrast, Texas and Arizona, with ratios below 1, were unresponsive to the recession. The presence of strong spatial clusters in unemployment rate and TANF maximum aid were found. In the case of maximum aid, there was a strong presence of Low-Low spatial clusters in Southern States an...
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unexpected-extreme event and has considerably impacted the national a... more The COVID-19 pandemic is an unexpected-extreme event and has considerably impacted the national and regional economies. This paper emphasizes the importance of industrial structure for a region's resistance to the recessionary shock. Two significant factors that may determine the regional industrial structures in this ongoing recession include the relative composition of essential/non-essential sectors and the intensity of face-to-face interactions. Considering these factors, we focus on two groups of industries: essential industry with low interpersonal interactions and non-essential industry with high interpersonal interactions. The specialization in these industries is associated with the regional economic resistance to the COVID-19 induced recession. Estimation results from the ordinal logistic regression models show that essential industries with low interpersonal interactions, especially the retail and service sectors-for instance, non-store retailers and financial and professional service-are significantly related to regional economic resistance, and their relationship intensifies compared to other sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, states specialized in the non-essential industries with high interpersonal interactions are less likely to resist economically during the lockdown-COVID and until the stabilizing-COVID period. In addition, a state that quickly recovered from the 2001 recession is more likely to resist the pandemic shock during earlyand lockdown-COVID periods. Findings in this paper indicate the importance of regional industrial structure to determine the level of vulnerability to unexpected recessionary shocks. Additionally, identifying the vital factors to determine the industrial structure based on the type of shock is found to be crucial.
The major economic downturn of the Great Recession led many families with children to depend on c... more The major economic downturn of the Great Recession led many families with children to depend on cash assistance from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. In order to capture TANF caseload growth rates relative to their labor market performance, we developed a responsiveness index which revealed that many of the western and midwestern states were quite responsive to the recession. Using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) tools, we found the presence of strong spatial clusters in unemployment rate and in TANF maximum aid. Several states in the western region were surrounded by neighboring states with higher growth in unemployment rate changes than the national average based on ‘Rook Contiguity’ weight matrix. The presence of High-High clusters of the level of TANF benefits was found in Northeastern states whereas the presence of Low-Low spatial clusters was found primarily in Southern states. The present study’s findings have confirmed the idea that spatia...
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