Papers by Jonathan Portes
The following queries have arisen during the typesetting of your manuscript. Please click on each... more The following queries have arisen during the typesetting of your manuscript. Please click on each query number and respond by indicating the change required within the text of the article. If no change is needed please add a note saying "No change." AQ1 Please check the table caption is missing AQ2 Figures are in low resolution, please provide us the high resolution figures for processing. AQ3 Please provide intext citation for all figures.
Over the last 50 years, London has successfully adapted to technological change and globalization... more Over the last 50 years, London has successfully adapted to technological change and globalization, making it the major driver of the UK economy. But its strengths have also made the city particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of COVID-19, and potentially also to wider negative economic implications of the crisis. Many of London’s key sectors rely on proximity, agglomeration economies and externalities. We evaluate the available data on the impact of the pandemic on London to date, with a particular focus on the differential effects between sectors. We also identify seven key trends, affecting both the demand and supply side of the economy, that are likely to have significant medium- to long-term economic impacts, and assess the potential impacts on London’s major industrial sectors. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 may further accentuate the existing divide between globally competitive advanced producer services and more locally focused sectors providing lower-value persona...
People, Place and Policy Online
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Economists broadly agree: the political backlash against immigration in many countries is not eco... more Economists broadly agree: the political backlash against immigration in many countries is not economically rational. The evidence strongly supports immigration as, overall, a clear benefit to destination countries.
National Institute Economic Review
This paper examines the short and long-term impacts of the UK referendum on migration flows and m... more This paper examines the short and long-term impacts of the UK referendum on migration flows and migration policy. Even in the short term – before any policy change – the vote will affect migration flows directly and indirectly through both economic and other channels. Post Brexit, two key issues will need to be addressed. Will the UK preserve a substantial measure of preference for EU citizens in any new system? And will policy tilt in a liberal or restrictive direction?
National Institute Economic Review
The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than y... more The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudi Dornbusch
National Institute Economic Review
Immigration and free movement are central issues in the UK's referendum on EU membership. Alt... more Immigration and free movement are central issues in the UK's referendum on EU membership. Although free movement was a founding principle of the EU, it only became of central economic and political importance after the expansion of the EU eastward in 2004. For the UK, the economic impacts of recent EU migration appear to have been relatively benign, even for the low paid and low skilled. The UK's recent ‘renegotiation’, which focused on the largely irrelevant issue of ‘benefit tourism’, will make little difference. A vote to Leave, however, will potentially take us into new territory for UK immigration policy,
ABSTRACT Immigration has been central in recent UK policy debates and has attracted significant c... more ABSTRACT Immigration has been central in recent UK policy debates and has attracted significant concern over its possible adverse effect on labour market outcomes. This paper contributes to the evidence on this issue by presenting initial results on the impact of migration inflows on the claimant count rate using previously unused data on National Insurance Number registrations of foreign nationals. Our results, which appear robust to different specifications, different levels of geographic aggregation, and to a number of tests, seem to confirm the lack of any impact of migration on unemployment in aggregate. We find no association between migrant inflows and claimant unemployment. In addition, we test for whether the impact of migration on claimant unemployment varies according to the state of the economic cycle. We find no evidence of a more adverse during periods of low growth or the recent recession.
Labor Migration, EU Enlargement, and the Great Recession, 2016
... Central and Eastern Europe on the UK labour market Nicola Gilpin, Matthew Henty, Sara Lemos, ... more ... Central and Eastern Europe on the UK labour market Nicola Gilpin, Matthew Henty, Sara Lemos, Jonathan Portes and Chris Bullen ... viii The Authors Nicola Gilpin is an Economic Adviser within the Economy and Labour Market Division of the Department for Work and Pensions. ...
World Bank Economic Review, Nov 26, 2012
London Review of Books, 2013
National Institute Economic Review, 2015
The Manchester School, 2015
Theory suggests that government should as far as possible smooth taxes and its recurrent consumpt... more Theory suggests that government should as far as possible smooth taxes and its recurrent consumption spending, which means that government debt should act as a shock absorber, and any planned adjustments in debt should be gradual. This suggests that operational targets for governments (e.g. for 5 years ahead) should involve deficits rather than debt, because such rules will be more robust to shocks. Beyond that, fiscal rules need to reflect the constraints on monetary policy, and the extent to which governments are subject to deficit bias. Fiscal rules for countries in a monetary union or fixed exchange rate regime need to include a strong countercyclical element. Fiscal rules should also contain a 'knock out' if interest rates hit the zero lower bound: in that case the fiscal and monetary authorities should cooperate to formulate a fiscal expansion package that allows interest rates to rise above this bound. In more normal times, the design of fiscal policy rules is likely to depend on the extent to which governments are subject to deficit bias, and the effectiveness of any national fiscal council. For example, governments that had not shown a history of deficit bias could aim to target deficits five years ahead (rolling targets), and these would not require cyclical adjustment. In contrast, governments that were more prone to bias could target a cyclically adjusted deficit at the end of their expected period of office. In both cases fiscal councils would have an important role to play, in ensuring plans were implemented in the first case and allowing for departures from target when external shocks occurred in the second.
National Institute Economic Review, 2013
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Papers by Jonathan Portes