ObjectivesThis session will share user experience with hosted datasets across two jurisdictions. ... more ObjectivesThis session will share user experience with hosted datasets across two jurisdictions. Family justice is a new domain on the SAIL Databank. Given the devolved policy agenda, challenges arose at different stages in the process of deriving an analytical dataset to compare how children leave care in England and Wales. ApproachDetails of applications to family courts, and their legal outcomes, were first provisioned in SAIL in 2020 by the respective Children and Families Court Advisory and Support Services (Cafcass) in England and Wales. The analytical challenge was the structure of the datasets, which are fully relational and require information to be summarised and restructured for analysis at case-, application- or child-level. The added complexity of cross-jurisdictional datasets will be examined along four dimensions at planning stage, set-up and life course of the project: data owners’ approvals, data provisioning, metadata, and data linkage within the host platform. R...
ObjectivesBy linking external data to that already held in SAIL Databank, a fuller picture of the... more ObjectivesBy linking external data to that already held in SAIL Databank, a fuller picture of the sometimes-chaotic lives of those in the youth justice system has been compiled. By looking at the impact of changes in circumstances on the likelihood of offending, opportunities for intervention have been identified. ApproachData from two Welsh youth justice services are used to model how the probability of further offending changes over time for different groups. By linking data from the risk assessment process previously used across England & Wales, to children’s’ social services, education and health records within SAIL Databank, we can for the first-time model their needs and circumstances, and establish temporal precedence in relation to offending. These linked records create an original longitudinal dataset to undertake within- and between- group analysis with a particular focus on understanding the complex relationship between risk and protective factors, and offending for minor...
Residential Treatment for Children & Youth, 2022
2 2. Ev e n s e c u r e c hil d r e n's h o m e s w o n't t a k e m e. C hil d r e n pl a c e d i... more 2 2. Ev e n s e c u r e c hil d r e n's h o m e s w o n't t a k e m e. C hil d r e n pl a c e d in al t e r n a tiv e a c c o m m o d a tio n. R e si d e n ti al Tr e a t m e n t fo r C hild r e n a n d Yout h 3 9 (4) ,
ObjectivesTo understand the needs and vulnerabilities of this cohort, and identify where there ar... more ObjectivesTo understand the needs and vulnerabilities of this cohort, and identify where there are opportunities for timely and appropriate support from a range of statutory and non-statutory organisations as they navigate the youth justice system. MethodsThis feasibility study linked external youth justice data from two Welsh local authorities with education, health, social services and family court data held in SAIL Databank. Once combined, it was possible to gain further insights into the nature and extent of contact with other state agencies, and to test for statistically significant differences in the profile of this cohort relative to their peers; in index risk scores across 12 domains and in the trajectory of the probability of further offending behaviour. The latter was considered via a series of hierarchical binary logistical regression models conducted under a Bayesian framework. ResultsThose with double system contact typically had higher index risk scores than their peer...
Cardiff University was founded in 1883. Located in a thriving capital city, Cardiff is an ambitio... more Cardiff University was founded in 1883. Located in a thriving capital city, Cardiff is an ambitious and innovative university, which is intent on building strong international relationships while demonstrating its commitment to Wales. Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is part of UK Research and Innovation, a new organisation that brings together the UK's seven research councils, Innovate UK and Research England to maximise the contribution of each council and create the best environment for research and innovation to flourish. Welsh Government is the devolved government of Wales, responsible for key areas of public life, including health, education, local government, and the environment.
Cardiff University was founded in 1883. Located in a thriving capital city, Cardiff is an ambitio... more Cardiff University was founded in 1883. Located in a thriving capital city, Cardiff is an ambitious and innovative university, which is intent on building strong international relationships while demonstrating its commitment to Wales. Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is part of UK Research and Innovation, a new organisation that brings together the UK's seven research councils, Innovate UK and Research England to maximise the contribution of each council and create the best environment for research and innovation to flourish. Welsh Government is the devolved government of Wales, responsible for key areas of public life, including health, education, local government, and the environment.
On 31st March 2018, there were 6,405 children looked after in Wales, almost 1,900 more children t... more On 31st March 2018, there were 6,405 children looked after in Wales, almost 1,900 more children than were looked after in 2006. Over that time Wales has consistently had more children looked after per 10,000 of the population than the rest of the UK, and that gap has widened. Within Wales, while most Local Authorities have seen a rise in both the number and rate of children looked after, there is significant variation; and some have seen the rate of children looked after fall since 2014. Using published data, this report explores what we can say about the factors that are driving these trends. The following infographics drawing on our data analysis show the kinds of placements children in Wales are in and where they’re placed.
The explanatory value of deprivation in combination with parental factors is striking, and is ind... more The explanatory value of deprivation in combination with parental factors is striking, and is indicative of differences in practice and perceptions of risk associated with the presence of the respective factors. However, there remains a significant proportion of the variation which remains unexplained by the factors considered here. 1 Throughout this report references are made to 'children looked after' rather than 'looked after children' since the label 'looked after child' and particularly the shortened version of 'LAC' can give the impression of children lacking in something. However, in some instances it has been necessary to use the term 'looked after children' as it is a statutory term used by the Welsh Government. Notably the Looked After Children Census has been abbreviated to LAC Census.
This research makes a significant and original contribution to emerging debates within criminolog... more This research makes a significant and original contribution to emerging debates within criminology and the social sciences more broadly, concerning the academic merit of using Bayesian statistics to analyse complex social problems, such as crime, with a view to promoting progressive and evidence-based policy reform agendas. It uses the risk assessment process in youth justice as a case study to demonstrate the utility of adding Bayesian approaches in the standard analytical tool box used to investigate the aetiology of offending behaviours, particularly when dealing with relatively small data-sets. The findings presented reinforce that it is possible using a Bayesian approach to 'do more with less' in terms of the number of cases analysed, and model the impact on the likelihood of further offending of individual characteristics, offending history, different types of offending and contact with the youth justice system. In considering the implications of its findings, the thesis considers how adopting a post-positivist stance-as called for by critics of the risk assessment process used within youth justice in England and Wales-enables new insights to be offered concerning the complex relationship between the framework of risk and protective factors and offending behaviours. It is concluded that they are distinct advantages associated with the adoption of novel statistical techniques within criminology, especially at a time where there is an increased emphasis on making greater use of administrative data to develop robust evidence-based policy.
BackgroundYoung people who have offended were, until recently, assessed using the Core ASSET Prof... more BackgroundYoung people who have offended were, until recently, assessed using the Core ASSET Profile – a tool which determined their likelihood of reoffending based on their criminal history and practitioner scores across 12 domains. The repeated assessments provide a set of data for each individual which can be used to model how their risk of further offending varies over time. Having conducted an initial proof of concept study, this work explores the potential of extending the range of ‘risk’ and ‘protective’ factors using anonymised linked data held within the SAIL Databank. Main AimThe feasibility study is designed to establish the potential for using administrative data to develop a more sensitive assessment tool for use in the youth justice system. Specifically, the study explores the impact of being care experienced and of subsequent system contact in elevating the risk of further offending. ApproachA series of Bayesian hierarchical models will be generated which mimic the fe...
ObjectivesThis session will share user experience with hosted datasets across two jurisdictions. ... more ObjectivesThis session will share user experience with hosted datasets across two jurisdictions. Family justice is a new domain on the SAIL Databank. Given the devolved policy agenda, challenges arose at different stages in the process of deriving an analytical dataset to compare how children leave care in England and Wales. ApproachDetails of applications to family courts, and their legal outcomes, were first provisioned in SAIL in 2020 by the respective Children and Families Court Advisory and Support Services (Cafcass) in England and Wales. The analytical challenge was the structure of the datasets, which are fully relational and require information to be summarised and restructured for analysis at case-, application- or child-level. The added complexity of cross-jurisdictional datasets will be examined along four dimensions at planning stage, set-up and life course of the project: data owners’ approvals, data provisioning, metadata, and data linkage within the host platform. R...
ObjectivesBy linking external data to that already held in SAIL Databank, a fuller picture of the... more ObjectivesBy linking external data to that already held in SAIL Databank, a fuller picture of the sometimes-chaotic lives of those in the youth justice system has been compiled. By looking at the impact of changes in circumstances on the likelihood of offending, opportunities for intervention have been identified. ApproachData from two Welsh youth justice services are used to model how the probability of further offending changes over time for different groups. By linking data from the risk assessment process previously used across England & Wales, to children’s’ social services, education and health records within SAIL Databank, we can for the first-time model their needs and circumstances, and establish temporal precedence in relation to offending. These linked records create an original longitudinal dataset to undertake within- and between- group analysis with a particular focus on understanding the complex relationship between risk and protective factors, and offending for minor...
Residential Treatment for Children & Youth, 2022
2 2. Ev e n s e c u r e c hil d r e n's h o m e s w o n't t a k e m e. C hil d r e n pl a c e d i... more 2 2. Ev e n s e c u r e c hil d r e n's h o m e s w o n't t a k e m e. C hil d r e n pl a c e d in al t e r n a tiv e a c c o m m o d a tio n. R e si d e n ti al Tr e a t m e n t fo r C hild r e n a n d Yout h 3 9 (4) ,
ObjectivesTo understand the needs and vulnerabilities of this cohort, and identify where there ar... more ObjectivesTo understand the needs and vulnerabilities of this cohort, and identify where there are opportunities for timely and appropriate support from a range of statutory and non-statutory organisations as they navigate the youth justice system. MethodsThis feasibility study linked external youth justice data from two Welsh local authorities with education, health, social services and family court data held in SAIL Databank. Once combined, it was possible to gain further insights into the nature and extent of contact with other state agencies, and to test for statistically significant differences in the profile of this cohort relative to their peers; in index risk scores across 12 domains and in the trajectory of the probability of further offending behaviour. The latter was considered via a series of hierarchical binary logistical regression models conducted under a Bayesian framework. ResultsThose with double system contact typically had higher index risk scores than their peer...
Cardiff University was founded in 1883. Located in a thriving capital city, Cardiff is an ambitio... more Cardiff University was founded in 1883. Located in a thriving capital city, Cardiff is an ambitious and innovative university, which is intent on building strong international relationships while demonstrating its commitment to Wales. Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is part of UK Research and Innovation, a new organisation that brings together the UK's seven research councils, Innovate UK and Research England to maximise the contribution of each council and create the best environment for research and innovation to flourish. Welsh Government is the devolved government of Wales, responsible for key areas of public life, including health, education, local government, and the environment.
Cardiff University was founded in 1883. Located in a thriving capital city, Cardiff is an ambitio... more Cardiff University was founded in 1883. Located in a thriving capital city, Cardiff is an ambitious and innovative university, which is intent on building strong international relationships while demonstrating its commitment to Wales. Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is part of UK Research and Innovation, a new organisation that brings together the UK's seven research councils, Innovate UK and Research England to maximise the contribution of each council and create the best environment for research and innovation to flourish. Welsh Government is the devolved government of Wales, responsible for key areas of public life, including health, education, local government, and the environment.
On 31st March 2018, there were 6,405 children looked after in Wales, almost 1,900 more children t... more On 31st March 2018, there were 6,405 children looked after in Wales, almost 1,900 more children than were looked after in 2006. Over that time Wales has consistently had more children looked after per 10,000 of the population than the rest of the UK, and that gap has widened. Within Wales, while most Local Authorities have seen a rise in both the number and rate of children looked after, there is significant variation; and some have seen the rate of children looked after fall since 2014. Using published data, this report explores what we can say about the factors that are driving these trends. The following infographics drawing on our data analysis show the kinds of placements children in Wales are in and where they’re placed.
The explanatory value of deprivation in combination with parental factors is striking, and is ind... more The explanatory value of deprivation in combination with parental factors is striking, and is indicative of differences in practice and perceptions of risk associated with the presence of the respective factors. However, there remains a significant proportion of the variation which remains unexplained by the factors considered here. 1 Throughout this report references are made to 'children looked after' rather than 'looked after children' since the label 'looked after child' and particularly the shortened version of 'LAC' can give the impression of children lacking in something. However, in some instances it has been necessary to use the term 'looked after children' as it is a statutory term used by the Welsh Government. Notably the Looked After Children Census has been abbreviated to LAC Census.
This research makes a significant and original contribution to emerging debates within criminolog... more This research makes a significant and original contribution to emerging debates within criminology and the social sciences more broadly, concerning the academic merit of using Bayesian statistics to analyse complex social problems, such as crime, with a view to promoting progressive and evidence-based policy reform agendas. It uses the risk assessment process in youth justice as a case study to demonstrate the utility of adding Bayesian approaches in the standard analytical tool box used to investigate the aetiology of offending behaviours, particularly when dealing with relatively small data-sets. The findings presented reinforce that it is possible using a Bayesian approach to 'do more with less' in terms of the number of cases analysed, and model the impact on the likelihood of further offending of individual characteristics, offending history, different types of offending and contact with the youth justice system. In considering the implications of its findings, the thesis considers how adopting a post-positivist stance-as called for by critics of the risk assessment process used within youth justice in England and Wales-enables new insights to be offered concerning the complex relationship between the framework of risk and protective factors and offending behaviours. It is concluded that they are distinct advantages associated with the adoption of novel statistical techniques within criminology, especially at a time where there is an increased emphasis on making greater use of administrative data to develop robust evidence-based policy.
BackgroundYoung people who have offended were, until recently, assessed using the Core ASSET Prof... more BackgroundYoung people who have offended were, until recently, assessed using the Core ASSET Profile – a tool which determined their likelihood of reoffending based on their criminal history and practitioner scores across 12 domains. The repeated assessments provide a set of data for each individual which can be used to model how their risk of further offending varies over time. Having conducted an initial proof of concept study, this work explores the potential of extending the range of ‘risk’ and ‘protective’ factors using anonymised linked data held within the SAIL Databank. Main AimThe feasibility study is designed to establish the potential for using administrative data to develop a more sensitive assessment tool for use in the youth justice system. Specifically, the study explores the impact of being care experienced and of subsequent system contact in elevating the risk of further offending. ApproachA series of Bayesian hierarchical models will be generated which mimic the fe...
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