This paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low te... more This paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low temperature episodes (LTE) in England, for the 26-yr period 1974–99, and to reveal possible associations with increased mortality rates. For this purpose, backward airmass trajectories, corresponding to LTE in five regions of England, were deployed. A statistically significant increase in mortality levels, at the 0.05 level, was found for LTE, compared to non-LTE days across all five regions. Seven categories of atmospheric trajectory patterns associated with LTE were identified: east, local, west, North Atlantic, Arctic, southwest, and Scandinavian. Consideration of the link between airmass trajectory patterns and mortality levels by region revealed a possible west-to-east split in the nature of air masses connected with elevated mortality. Specifically, for the West Midlands and northwest regions, relatively warm winter weather conditions from the west, most likely associated with the ea...
The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, ... more The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.
Background and Aims. The cultivation of grapevines in England is expected to benefit under climat... more Background and Aims. The cultivation of grapevines in England is expected to benefit under climate change. Yet assessments of future wine climates remain undeveloped. Accordingly, this study assesses how climate change might modify frost risk for Chardonnay in the Southeast England viticulture region. Methods and Results. Cold-bias-corrected climate projections from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) climate model under RCP8.5 are applied with phenological models to determine how frost risk and the timing of key grapevine phenophases might alter under climate change. Notwithstanding the uncertainties associated with projections of key viticulture-related bioclimate variables, the last spring frost was found to advance at a greater rate than budburst, indicating a general decrease in frost risk. Conclusions. Although projections point to an improving climate for viticulture across Southeast England, frost will remain a risk for viticulture, albeit at a red...
To assess the nature and extent of hydrological response to climatic change a clear understanding... more To assess the nature and extent of hydrological response to climatic change a clear understanding of process linkages in the atmosphere-surface-runoff cascade is necessary. Such hydroclimatological linkages are poorly defined for northwest Europe. This research gap is addressed through a composite analysis of large-scale climatic controls on monthly high and low streamflow across this region for 1968-1997. Analyses are conducted for hydrological regions defined by hierarchical cluster analysis. Presentation and discussion of results focus on one region (northern and central-southern Norway) as a demonstration of the utility of this methodology. High streamflow is generally characterized by a more intense and easterly positioned Icelandic Low and Azores High, and an enhanced pressure gradient between these centres (compared to low streamflow situations). Atmospheric thickness is greater under high flow, as are 1000 hPa windspeeds. The results show limited evidence of a North Atlantic...
Correlation of monthly interregional river flow and composite analysis of large-scale climatic pa... more Correlation of monthly interregional river flow and composite analysis of large-scale climatic patterns associated with high and low monthly regional river flow are presented for the northern North Atlantic domain for 1968-1997. Hydrological regions are defined using cluster analysis. Adjacent hydrological regions generally display year-round positive correlation of river flow. For the first time, inverse river flow relationships are identified between North America and Europe in autumn, and between northern and southern regions of northern Europe from April-May and July-December. Composite analysis shows linkages between northern European river flow and the Icelandic Low, Azores High and intervening pressure gradient. River flow in northeastern North America is more closely associated with the East Coast pressure trough. TransAtlantic hydrological teleconnections appear related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the inverse meridional relationship in northern Europe linked, in part, to the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern.
The climate characteristics of summer human thermal discomfort in Athens and its connection to at... more The climate characteristics of summer human thermal discomfort in Athens and its connection to atmospheric circulation are studied for the period 1954-2012. The human thermal discomfort is examined in terms of the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) discomfort index for calm and light wind (3 ms −1) conditions. Its inter-annual variability is characterised by a significant increase from the middle 1980s to the end of the study period. The onset and the cessation of the discomfort period are found to take place around the beginning of July and the end of August respectively, but from middle 1980s the dates of onset and cessation have slightly moved earlier and later, respectively, leading to a longer summer discomfort period. The connection between human thermal discomfort and atmospheric circulation is studied by examining the distribution of discomfort cases across six objectively defined circulation types over Europe, based on Athens weather characteristics. High values of the PMV discomfort index are mainly associated with two typical high-summer pressure patterns with the intensity of discomfort depending on the pressure gradient over the Aegean Sea. On the contrary, low PMV discomfort index values prevail mainly on days typified by the other four circulation types, which are more frequent during May, June, and September.
The atmospheric circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere have had a significant impact on ... more The atmospheric circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere have had a significant impact on the climate of the Antarctic and there is much evidence that these circulation patterns have changed in the recent past. This change is thought to have contributed to the warming trend observed at the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 50 years-one of the largest trends observed in this period on the planet. The trends associated with the continental Antarctic climate are less clear but are likely to be impacted less directly by atmospheric circulation changes. The circulation changes can be put into the context of longer timescales by considering atmospheric circulation reconstructions that have been performed using data from Antarctic ice cores. In this review paper we look at the main body of work examining: Antarctic climate trends; the understanding and impact of atmospheric circulation of the mid-to high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere; and the usefulness and reliability of atmospheric circulation reconstructions from Antarctic ice core data. Finally, beyond several of the more quantitative reconstructions, it is deemed that an assessment of their consistency is not possible due to the variety of circulation characteristics that the various reconstructions consider.
The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of underst... more The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC"s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature-mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.
High air temperatures can affect human health and lead to additional deaths even under current cl... more High air temperatures can affect human health and lead to additional deaths even under current climatic conditions. Heatwaves occur infrequently in Europe and can significantly affect human health, as witnessed in summer 2003. This report reviews current knowledge about the effects of heatwaves , including the physiological aspects of heat illness and epidemiological studies on excess mortality, and makes recommendations for preventive action. Measures for reducing heatrelated mortality and morbidity include heat health warning systems and appropriate urban planning and housing design. More heat health warnings systems need to be implemented in European countries. This requires good coordination between health and meteorological agencies and the development of appropriate targeted advice and intervention measures. More long-term planning is required to alter urban bioclimates and reduce urban heat islands in summer. Appropriate building design should keep indoor temperatures comfortable without using energy-intensive space cooling. As heatwaves are likely to increase in frequency because of global climate change, the most effective interventions, measures and policies to protect the health of vulnerable Europeans need to be developed and evaluated.
This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Con... more This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial ...
This report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a prog... more This report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area, in order to develop better coping strategies. The report contains six sections on the climate context of heat waves, climatic change and heat waves, vulnerability to heat, social impacts, preparing for heat extremes. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience ...
This study evaluates the impacts on flood inundation of a changing climate within a probabilistic... more This study evaluates the impacts on flood inundation of a changing climate within a probabilistic framework. Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) are used to drive catchment hydrological and river hydraulic models within a cascaded framework. We consider three analytical steps that must be taken into account in order to successfully provide probabilistic projections of flood inundation:(i) downscaling of the driving variables from the GCM/RCM due to the scale mismatch between the model types;(ii) bias ...
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have f... more The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have far reaching consequences for public health globally. We explored whether global, regional and country-level rates of people affected by natural disasters (PAD) are linked to ENSO. Annual numbers of PAD between 1964–2017 recorded on the EM-DAT disaster database were combined with UN population data to create PAD rates. Time-series regression was used to assess de-trended associations between PAD and 2 ENSO indices: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and multivariate El Niño Index (MEI). Over 95% of PAD were caused by floods, droughts or storms, with over 75% of people affected by these three disasters residing in Asia. Globally, drought-related PAD rate increased sharply in El Niño years (versus neutral years). Flood events were the disaster type most strongly associated with El Niño regionally: in South Asia, flood-related PAD increased by 40.5% (95% CI 19.3% to 65.6%) for each boundary point incr...
The role of terrain, meteorological and snowpack factors contributing to snow avalanche occurrenc... more The role of terrain, meteorological and snowpack factors contributing to snow avalanche occurrence were investigated on the eastern side of the Craigieburn Range. Data on which this analysis was based were collected in the winters of 1979 to 1981. The majority of slab avalanching occurred on lee slopes with large bowl shaped starting zones of 33 to 36 degrees inclination while frequency of avalanching was related to path size factors. Theoretical models adequately predicted avalanche runout distance on the majority of paths. However, these models proved only partially satisfactory for valley side paths with steep vegetated runout zones. An empirical model developed for predicting avalanche runout based on measured terrain characteristics performed well. Threshold values for avalanching were established for precipitation, temperature and wind related variables. A discriminant analysis model for distinguishing dry, wet and non-avalanche days was established using maximum six hour prec...
This paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low te... more This paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low temperature episodes (LTE) in England, for the 26-yr period 1974–99, and to reveal possible associations with increased mortality rates. For this purpose, backward airmass trajectories, corresponding to LTE in five regions of England, were deployed. A statistically significant increase in mortality levels, at the 0.05 level, was found for LTE, compared to non-LTE days across all five regions. Seven categories of atmospheric trajectory patterns associated with LTE were identified: east, local, west, North Atlantic, Arctic, southwest, and Scandinavian. Consideration of the link between airmass trajectory patterns and mortality levels by region revealed a possible west-to-east split in the nature of air masses connected with elevated mortality. Specifically, for the West Midlands and northwest regions, relatively warm winter weather conditions from the west, most likely associated with the ea...
The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, ... more The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.
Background and Aims. The cultivation of grapevines in England is expected to benefit under climat... more Background and Aims. The cultivation of grapevines in England is expected to benefit under climate change. Yet assessments of future wine climates remain undeveloped. Accordingly, this study assesses how climate change might modify frost risk for Chardonnay in the Southeast England viticulture region. Methods and Results. Cold-bias-corrected climate projections from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) climate model under RCP8.5 are applied with phenological models to determine how frost risk and the timing of key grapevine phenophases might alter under climate change. Notwithstanding the uncertainties associated with projections of key viticulture-related bioclimate variables, the last spring frost was found to advance at a greater rate than budburst, indicating a general decrease in frost risk. Conclusions. Although projections point to an improving climate for viticulture across Southeast England, frost will remain a risk for viticulture, albeit at a red...
To assess the nature and extent of hydrological response to climatic change a clear understanding... more To assess the nature and extent of hydrological response to climatic change a clear understanding of process linkages in the atmosphere-surface-runoff cascade is necessary. Such hydroclimatological linkages are poorly defined for northwest Europe. This research gap is addressed through a composite analysis of large-scale climatic controls on monthly high and low streamflow across this region for 1968-1997. Analyses are conducted for hydrological regions defined by hierarchical cluster analysis. Presentation and discussion of results focus on one region (northern and central-southern Norway) as a demonstration of the utility of this methodology. High streamflow is generally characterized by a more intense and easterly positioned Icelandic Low and Azores High, and an enhanced pressure gradient between these centres (compared to low streamflow situations). Atmospheric thickness is greater under high flow, as are 1000 hPa windspeeds. The results show limited evidence of a North Atlantic...
Correlation of monthly interregional river flow and composite analysis of large-scale climatic pa... more Correlation of monthly interregional river flow and composite analysis of large-scale climatic patterns associated with high and low monthly regional river flow are presented for the northern North Atlantic domain for 1968-1997. Hydrological regions are defined using cluster analysis. Adjacent hydrological regions generally display year-round positive correlation of river flow. For the first time, inverse river flow relationships are identified between North America and Europe in autumn, and between northern and southern regions of northern Europe from April-May and July-December. Composite analysis shows linkages between northern European river flow and the Icelandic Low, Azores High and intervening pressure gradient. River flow in northeastern North America is more closely associated with the East Coast pressure trough. TransAtlantic hydrological teleconnections appear related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the inverse meridional relationship in northern Europe linked, in part, to the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern.
The climate characteristics of summer human thermal discomfort in Athens and its connection to at... more The climate characteristics of summer human thermal discomfort in Athens and its connection to atmospheric circulation are studied for the period 1954-2012. The human thermal discomfort is examined in terms of the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) discomfort index for calm and light wind (3 ms −1) conditions. Its inter-annual variability is characterised by a significant increase from the middle 1980s to the end of the study period. The onset and the cessation of the discomfort period are found to take place around the beginning of July and the end of August respectively, but from middle 1980s the dates of onset and cessation have slightly moved earlier and later, respectively, leading to a longer summer discomfort period. The connection between human thermal discomfort and atmospheric circulation is studied by examining the distribution of discomfort cases across six objectively defined circulation types over Europe, based on Athens weather characteristics. High values of the PMV discomfort index are mainly associated with two typical high-summer pressure patterns with the intensity of discomfort depending on the pressure gradient over the Aegean Sea. On the contrary, low PMV discomfort index values prevail mainly on days typified by the other four circulation types, which are more frequent during May, June, and September.
The atmospheric circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere have had a significant impact on ... more The atmospheric circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere have had a significant impact on the climate of the Antarctic and there is much evidence that these circulation patterns have changed in the recent past. This change is thought to have contributed to the warming trend observed at the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 50 years-one of the largest trends observed in this period on the planet. The trends associated with the continental Antarctic climate are less clear but are likely to be impacted less directly by atmospheric circulation changes. The circulation changes can be put into the context of longer timescales by considering atmospheric circulation reconstructions that have been performed using data from Antarctic ice cores. In this review paper we look at the main body of work examining: Antarctic climate trends; the understanding and impact of atmospheric circulation of the mid-to high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere; and the usefulness and reliability of atmospheric circulation reconstructions from Antarctic ice core data. Finally, beyond several of the more quantitative reconstructions, it is deemed that an assessment of their consistency is not possible due to the variety of circulation characteristics that the various reconstructions consider.
The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of underst... more The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC"s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature-mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.
High air temperatures can affect human health and lead to additional deaths even under current cl... more High air temperatures can affect human health and lead to additional deaths even under current climatic conditions. Heatwaves occur infrequently in Europe and can significantly affect human health, as witnessed in summer 2003. This report reviews current knowledge about the effects of heatwaves , including the physiological aspects of heat illness and epidemiological studies on excess mortality, and makes recommendations for preventive action. Measures for reducing heatrelated mortality and morbidity include heat health warning systems and appropriate urban planning and housing design. More heat health warnings systems need to be implemented in European countries. This requires good coordination between health and meteorological agencies and the development of appropriate targeted advice and intervention measures. More long-term planning is required to alter urban bioclimates and reduce urban heat islands in summer. Appropriate building design should keep indoor temperatures comfortable without using energy-intensive space cooling. As heatwaves are likely to increase in frequency because of global climate change, the most effective interventions, measures and policies to protect the health of vulnerable Europeans need to be developed and evaluated.
This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Con... more This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial ...
This report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a prog... more This report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area, in order to develop better coping strategies. The report contains six sections on the climate context of heat waves, climatic change and heat waves, vulnerability to heat, social impacts, preparing for heat extremes. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience ...
This study evaluates the impacts on flood inundation of a changing climate within a probabilistic... more This study evaluates the impacts on flood inundation of a changing climate within a probabilistic framework. Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) are used to drive catchment hydrological and river hydraulic models within a cascaded framework. We consider three analytical steps that must be taken into account in order to successfully provide probabilistic projections of flood inundation:(i) downscaling of the driving variables from the GCM/RCM due to the scale mismatch between the model types;(ii) bias ...
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have f... more The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have far reaching consequences for public health globally. We explored whether global, regional and country-level rates of people affected by natural disasters (PAD) are linked to ENSO. Annual numbers of PAD between 1964–2017 recorded on the EM-DAT disaster database were combined with UN population data to create PAD rates. Time-series regression was used to assess de-trended associations between PAD and 2 ENSO indices: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and multivariate El Niño Index (MEI). Over 95% of PAD were caused by floods, droughts or storms, with over 75% of people affected by these three disasters residing in Asia. Globally, drought-related PAD rate increased sharply in El Niño years (versus neutral years). Flood events were the disaster type most strongly associated with El Niño regionally: in South Asia, flood-related PAD increased by 40.5% (95% CI 19.3% to 65.6%) for each boundary point incr...
The role of terrain, meteorological and snowpack factors contributing to snow avalanche occurrenc... more The role of terrain, meteorological and snowpack factors contributing to snow avalanche occurrence were investigated on the eastern side of the Craigieburn Range. Data on which this analysis was based were collected in the winters of 1979 to 1981. The majority of slab avalanching occurred on lee slopes with large bowl shaped starting zones of 33 to 36 degrees inclination while frequency of avalanching was related to path size factors. Theoretical models adequately predicted avalanche runout distance on the majority of paths. However, these models proved only partially satisfactory for valley side paths with steep vegetated runout zones. An empirical model developed for predicting avalanche runout based on measured terrain characteristics performed well. Threshold values for avalanching were established for precipitation, temperature and wind related variables. A discriminant analysis model for distinguishing dry, wet and non-avalanche days was established using maximum six hour prec...
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Papers by Glenn McGregor