The share of foreign-born workers in the U.S. information technology (IT) industry is much higher... more The share of foreign-born workers in the U.S. information technology (IT) industry is much higher than their share of the labor force. In fact, foreign-born workers hold more than half the creative IT jobs located in metropolitan areas where IT innovation clusters are located. Nevertheless, except for in Silicon Valley, U.S.-born workers and workers born abroad to American parents still hold the highest proportion of creative IT jobs.
This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the comp... more This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the composite indicators of well-being from their main subcomponents. The facts that most of the weights of the principal sub-components of the composite indicators are equal, that the determinants of well-being are correlated, and that the results are interpreted primarily in terms of country ranks, point out to the appropriateness of using a rank-based method for computing the composite indicators form their sub-indexes. A comparison of the actual ranks with ranks computed as averages of the ranks of sub-indexes for three well-known indicators of well-being, Human Development Index, Legatum Prosperity Index, and Social Progress Index, shows that results are almost the same. This calls into question the use of weighted averages of actual values of sub-components, as very high values for a sub-component increases a country's relative rank, despite much lower performance on other sub-components, as in the case of USA and New Zealand. Our proposed approach helps achieve more robust/reliable rankings of countries and tackle the issues posed by extreme values or non-normal distributions of the sub-components variables used.
This paper attempts to do a classification of countries based on the labour-related values preval... more This paper attempts to do a classification of countries based on the labour-related values prevalent in their societies. Using data from the World Values Survey, wave 4, an attempt is made to create country clusters based on four classes of values relevant to labour market behaviour: 1) values important to the society as a whole, 2) societal perceptions, attitudes and behaviours 3) attitudes toward work, and 4) economic and political environment. After using principal component analysis to reduce dimensionality of the data on the last three dimensions, cluster analysis was done on a mix of variables and factors. Our findings are partially consistent to the existing classifications of countries. Some results appear to challenge some of the existing classifications, as we found some less expected associations that appear to be correct, given the fact that they occur for several classes of values.
Abstract The reliability and comparability of international migration statistics belong to the m... more Abstract The reliability and comparability of international migration statistics belong to the most important statistical issues due to the importance of correct dimensioning of the migration flows and stocks for effective and timely design of effective policy measures. This paper presents an assessment of the migration statistics provided by Eurostat, reveals the most prominent discrepancies between stock and flow data, prepares a summary of vital issues affecting both quality and completeness of the migration data, and identifies certain solutions in order to improve data comparability, reliability and completeness. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, but an eclectic mix which extends the use of administrative and private data, matches data coming from distinct sources, harmonizes the way in which data is compiled and reported by different countries, matches observed flows with (demographic) stock-based estimates, provides consistent estimates of the bilateral migration flows between countries, and improves the measurement of temporary and illegal/undeclared migration.
The paper attempts to determine regional unemployment rates for NUTS 2 regions based on data avai... more The paper attempts to determine regional unemployment rates for NUTS 2 regions based on data available on a regular basis from Eurostat and ILO. In the first part it is shown how the evolution of regional unemployment rates is determined by national unemployment rates by industry and the regional employment structure by industry, with key relationships between industries being identified. In the second part, a model of predicting regional unemployment rates from national unemployment rates by industry and regional employment structure is proposed, using unbalanced panel regression models. Specific data mining modeling approaches, not currently used in economics research, are employed to produce and validate the predictions. Conclusions point out that reliable predictions of regional unemployment rates can be done using national unemployment rates by industry and regional employment structure, using models that could be built and used by policymakers.
The paper attempts to do a comprehensive analysis on how spending patterns
were affected by the m... more The paper attempts to do a comprehensive analysis on how spending patterns were affected by the most severe economic crisis since the oil shocks in the 70’s. We have attempted to see which services have been significantly affected by the crisis, and whether social spending has risen and managed to counter the effects of the crisis. We have found that, despite generalized increase in social spending, the crisis had no major impact for some important social spending categories. Social protection revenue has increased and matched to a good extent social protection spending, which was also affected by a strong increase in the cohorts reaching retirement age. We also found that, contrary to other literature findings, spending on social services was countercyclical, increasing in the first years of the crisis, and declined afterwards. There is evidence that social spending managed to sustain a decrease in poverty and inequality during the crisis.
This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the comp... more This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the composite indicators of well-being from their main subcomponents. The facts that most of the weights of the principal sub-components of the composite indicators are equal, that the determinants of well-being are correlated, and that the results are interpreted primarily in terms of country ranks, point out to the appropriateness of using a rank-based method for computing the composite indicators form their sub-indexes. A comparison of the actual ranks with ranks computed as averages of the ranks of sub-indexes for three well-known indicators of well-being, Human Development Index, Legatum Prosperity Index, and Social Progress Index, shows that results are almost the same. This calls into question the use of weighted averages of actual values of sub-components, as very high values for a sub-component increases a country's relative rank, despite much lower performance on other sub-components, as in the case of USA and New Zealand. Our proposed approach helps achieve more robust/reliable rankings of countries and tackle the issues posed by extreme values or non-normal distributions of the sub-components variables used.
Problem Statement. There are concerns that convergence in the EU is mostly economic, which may le... more Problem Statement. There are concerns that convergence in the EU is mostly economic, which may lead to increased inequality and social disparities. Also, research shows that mild divergence can be observed at regional level, which questions the effectiveness of the EU cohesion policy. Purpose of Study. This paper explores whether socio-economic convergence occurs at both national and regional level, and whether the EU cohesion policy is effective. Methods. Using Eurostat data since 2000, we use coefficients of variation to analyze convergence for disposable income, unemployment rates, proportion of people living in households with low work intensity, and migration. Findings and Results. Convergence and divergence are faster at country level, and trends at national level are mostly different than those at regional level in terms of direction and magnitude. For unemployment rates and work intensity, regional data shows more volatility, indicating higher within-country volatility, while between-country volatility is higher for incomes and net migration. Except for unemployment, the Great Recession has not induced an erosion on the convergence observed in the pre-crisis period; in particular, low work intensity holds steady. Greater volatility in internal migration is unexpected given the convergence in income and unemployment rate. Conclusions and Recommendations. Most findings point out that the EU cohesion policy is effective in reducing socio-economic disparities before 2008, and containing them doing the Great Depression. However, this is mostly due to increased between-country convergence. Divergence in internal migration is unexpected and requires further research.
In view of knowing the essence of phenomena it is necessary to perform statistical data processin... more In view of knowing the essence of phenomena it is necessary to perform statistical data processing operations. This allows for shifting from individual data to derived, synthetic indicators that highlight the essence of various phenomena. The high volume and diversity of processing operations presuppose developing plans of computerised data processing.
An attempt to draw up a coherent effective strategy for developing the regional tourism in the re... more An attempt to draw up a coherent effective strategy for developing the regional tourism in the region of Black Sea in accordance with the market economy must begin with a realistic evaluation and analysis of the actual state of the tourism in the region and must have a starting point in a comparative analysis with the neighbourhood, from central and eastern Europe. A model of bifactorial variance analysis with regard to the issue of international tourism development in these countries is important for the economic and social policy, by sustaining the hypotheses about the existence of differences in average number of nights spent by foreign tourists in hotels and similar establishments between countries.
Culture is a powerful tool to communicate values and to promote objectives of public interest tha... more Culture is a powerful tool to communicate values and to promote objectives of public interest that are broader than wealth creation. The economy of culture entails both cultural and creative sectors. It has to be noted that, along with the development of the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, the contribution of culture to the economy has gradually been acknowledged, in particular with the development of the cultural industries. One way of measuring the economy of culture focuses on the value added to the economy. Also, we present several statistical indicators that quantify the dimension of the cultural-creative field, and identify an econometrical multiple model that reveals the relationship between some of them. In the article it is applied the analysis of variance method in order to identify the existence of significant differences between geographical and between linguistic-cultural European regions, according to the values of some of the statistical indicators.
The reliability and comparability of international migration statistics are among the of the most... more The reliability and comparability of international migration statistics are among the of the most important statistical issues, due to the importance of the correct dimensioning of the migration flows and stocks, and the consequences on the design of timely and effective policy measures to manage this phenomenon and contain its possible adverse outcomes. This paper makes an assessment of the migration statistics provided by Eurostat, reveals the most prominent discrepancies between stock and flow data, makes a summary of the main issues that affect the quality and completeness of the migration data, and identifies some solutions in order to improve the comparability, reliability and completeness. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, but an eclectic mix which extends the use of administrative and private data, matches the data coming from distinct sources in order to assess the full dimension of international migration, harmonizes the way in which data is compiled and reported by ...
The paper attempts to do a comprehensive analysis on how spending patterns were affected by the m... more The paper attempts to do a comprehensive analysis on how spending patterns were affected by the most severe economic crisis since the oil shocks in the 70’s. We have attempted to see which services have been significantly affected by the crisis, and whether social spending has risen and managed to counter the effects of the crisis. We have found that, despite generalized increase in social spending, the crisis had no major impact for some important social spending categories. Social protection revenue has increased and matched to a good extent social protection spending, which was also affected by a strong increase in the cohorts reaching retirement age. We also found that, contrary to other literature findings, spending on social services was countercyclical, increasing in the first years of the crisis, and declined afterwards. There is evidence that social spending managed to sustain a decrease in poverty and inequality during the crisis.
This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the comp... more This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the composite indicators of well-being from their main subcomponents. The facts that most of the weights of the principal sub-components of the composite indicators are equal, that the determinants of well-being are correlated, and that the results are interpreted primarily in terms of country ranks, point out to the appropriateness of using a rank-based method for computing the composite indicators form their sub-indexes. A comparison of the actual ranks with ranks computed as averages of the ranks of sub-indexes for three well-known indicators of well-being, Human Development Index, Legatum Prosperity Index, and Social Progress Index, shows that results are almost the same. This calls into question the use of weighted averages of actual values of sub-components, as very high values for a sub-component increases a country’s relative rank, despite much lower performance on other sub-components, ...
The paper attempts to determine regional unemployment rates for European regions based on panel d... more The paper attempts to determine regional unemployment rates for European regions based on panel data with a relatively short time-series component. In the first part it is shown how the much of the evolution of regional unemployment rates is determined by national unemployment rates by industry and the regional employment structure. In the second part, a prediction model of regional unemployment rates from national unemployment rates by industry and regional employment structure is proposed, using unbalanced panel regression models with a relatively short time-series component. Specific predictive modeling approach is employed for producing and validating the predictions. Reliable predictions of regional unemployment rates that overcome the hysteresis effect present in the labour market data can be done using national unemployment rates by industry and regional employment structure.
The share of foreign-born workers in the U.S. information technology (IT) industry is much higher... more The share of foreign-born workers in the U.S. information technology (IT) industry is much higher than their share of the labor force. In fact, foreign-born workers hold more than half the creative IT jobs located in metropolitan areas where IT innovation clusters are located. Nevertheless, except for in Silicon Valley, U.S.-born workers and workers born abroad to American parents still hold the highest proportion of creative IT jobs.
This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the comp... more This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the composite indicators of well-being from their main subcomponents. The facts that most of the weights of the principal sub-components of the composite indicators are equal, that the determinants of well-being are correlated, and that the results are interpreted primarily in terms of country ranks, point out to the appropriateness of using a rank-based method for computing the composite indicators form their sub-indexes. A comparison of the actual ranks with ranks computed as averages of the ranks of sub-indexes for three well-known indicators of well-being, Human Development Index, Legatum Prosperity Index, and Social Progress Index, shows that results are almost the same. This calls into question the use of weighted averages of actual values of sub-components, as very high values for a sub-component increases a country's relative rank, despite much lower performance on other sub-components, as in the case of USA and New Zealand. Our proposed approach helps achieve more robust/reliable rankings of countries and tackle the issues posed by extreme values or non-normal distributions of the sub-components variables used.
This paper attempts to do a classification of countries based on the labour-related values preval... more This paper attempts to do a classification of countries based on the labour-related values prevalent in their societies. Using data from the World Values Survey, wave 4, an attempt is made to create country clusters based on four classes of values relevant to labour market behaviour: 1) values important to the society as a whole, 2) societal perceptions, attitudes and behaviours 3) attitudes toward work, and 4) economic and political environment. After using principal component analysis to reduce dimensionality of the data on the last three dimensions, cluster analysis was done on a mix of variables and factors. Our findings are partially consistent to the existing classifications of countries. Some results appear to challenge some of the existing classifications, as we found some less expected associations that appear to be correct, given the fact that they occur for several classes of values.
Abstract The reliability and comparability of international migration statistics belong to the m... more Abstract The reliability and comparability of international migration statistics belong to the most important statistical issues due to the importance of correct dimensioning of the migration flows and stocks for effective and timely design of effective policy measures. This paper presents an assessment of the migration statistics provided by Eurostat, reveals the most prominent discrepancies between stock and flow data, prepares a summary of vital issues affecting both quality and completeness of the migration data, and identifies certain solutions in order to improve data comparability, reliability and completeness. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, but an eclectic mix which extends the use of administrative and private data, matches data coming from distinct sources, harmonizes the way in which data is compiled and reported by different countries, matches observed flows with (demographic) stock-based estimates, provides consistent estimates of the bilateral migration flows between countries, and improves the measurement of temporary and illegal/undeclared migration.
The paper attempts to determine regional unemployment rates for NUTS 2 regions based on data avai... more The paper attempts to determine regional unemployment rates for NUTS 2 regions based on data available on a regular basis from Eurostat and ILO. In the first part it is shown how the evolution of regional unemployment rates is determined by national unemployment rates by industry and the regional employment structure by industry, with key relationships between industries being identified. In the second part, a model of predicting regional unemployment rates from national unemployment rates by industry and regional employment structure is proposed, using unbalanced panel regression models. Specific data mining modeling approaches, not currently used in economics research, are employed to produce and validate the predictions. Conclusions point out that reliable predictions of regional unemployment rates can be done using national unemployment rates by industry and regional employment structure, using models that could be built and used by policymakers.
The paper attempts to do a comprehensive analysis on how spending patterns
were affected by the m... more The paper attempts to do a comprehensive analysis on how spending patterns were affected by the most severe economic crisis since the oil shocks in the 70’s. We have attempted to see which services have been significantly affected by the crisis, and whether social spending has risen and managed to counter the effects of the crisis. We have found that, despite generalized increase in social spending, the crisis had no major impact for some important social spending categories. Social protection revenue has increased and matched to a good extent social protection spending, which was also affected by a strong increase in the cohorts reaching retirement age. We also found that, contrary to other literature findings, spending on social services was countercyclical, increasing in the first years of the crisis, and declined afterwards. There is evidence that social spending managed to sustain a decrease in poverty and inequality during the crisis.
This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the comp... more This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the composite indicators of well-being from their main subcomponents. The facts that most of the weights of the principal sub-components of the composite indicators are equal, that the determinants of well-being are correlated, and that the results are interpreted primarily in terms of country ranks, point out to the appropriateness of using a rank-based method for computing the composite indicators form their sub-indexes. A comparison of the actual ranks with ranks computed as averages of the ranks of sub-indexes for three well-known indicators of well-being, Human Development Index, Legatum Prosperity Index, and Social Progress Index, shows that results are almost the same. This calls into question the use of weighted averages of actual values of sub-components, as very high values for a sub-component increases a country's relative rank, despite much lower performance on other sub-components, as in the case of USA and New Zealand. Our proposed approach helps achieve more robust/reliable rankings of countries and tackle the issues posed by extreme values or non-normal distributions of the sub-components variables used.
Problem Statement. There are concerns that convergence in the EU is mostly economic, which may le... more Problem Statement. There are concerns that convergence in the EU is mostly economic, which may lead to increased inequality and social disparities. Also, research shows that mild divergence can be observed at regional level, which questions the effectiveness of the EU cohesion policy. Purpose of Study. This paper explores whether socio-economic convergence occurs at both national and regional level, and whether the EU cohesion policy is effective. Methods. Using Eurostat data since 2000, we use coefficients of variation to analyze convergence for disposable income, unemployment rates, proportion of people living in households with low work intensity, and migration. Findings and Results. Convergence and divergence are faster at country level, and trends at national level are mostly different than those at regional level in terms of direction and magnitude. For unemployment rates and work intensity, regional data shows more volatility, indicating higher within-country volatility, while between-country volatility is higher for incomes and net migration. Except for unemployment, the Great Recession has not induced an erosion on the convergence observed in the pre-crisis period; in particular, low work intensity holds steady. Greater volatility in internal migration is unexpected given the convergence in income and unemployment rate. Conclusions and Recommendations. Most findings point out that the EU cohesion policy is effective in reducing socio-economic disparities before 2008, and containing them doing the Great Depression. However, this is mostly due to increased between-country convergence. Divergence in internal migration is unexpected and requires further research.
In view of knowing the essence of phenomena it is necessary to perform statistical data processin... more In view of knowing the essence of phenomena it is necessary to perform statistical data processing operations. This allows for shifting from individual data to derived, synthetic indicators that highlight the essence of various phenomena. The high volume and diversity of processing operations presuppose developing plans of computerised data processing.
An attempt to draw up a coherent effective strategy for developing the regional tourism in the re... more An attempt to draw up a coherent effective strategy for developing the regional tourism in the region of Black Sea in accordance with the market economy must begin with a realistic evaluation and analysis of the actual state of the tourism in the region and must have a starting point in a comparative analysis with the neighbourhood, from central and eastern Europe. A model of bifactorial variance analysis with regard to the issue of international tourism development in these countries is important for the economic and social policy, by sustaining the hypotheses about the existence of differences in average number of nights spent by foreign tourists in hotels and similar establishments between countries.
Culture is a powerful tool to communicate values and to promote objectives of public interest tha... more Culture is a powerful tool to communicate values and to promote objectives of public interest that are broader than wealth creation. The economy of culture entails both cultural and creative sectors. It has to be noted that, along with the development of the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, the contribution of culture to the economy has gradually been acknowledged, in particular with the development of the cultural industries. One way of measuring the economy of culture focuses on the value added to the economy. Also, we present several statistical indicators that quantify the dimension of the cultural-creative field, and identify an econometrical multiple model that reveals the relationship between some of them. In the article it is applied the analysis of variance method in order to identify the existence of significant differences between geographical and between linguistic-cultural European regions, according to the values of some of the statistical indicators.
The reliability and comparability of international migration statistics are among the of the most... more The reliability and comparability of international migration statistics are among the of the most important statistical issues, due to the importance of the correct dimensioning of the migration flows and stocks, and the consequences on the design of timely and effective policy measures to manage this phenomenon and contain its possible adverse outcomes. This paper makes an assessment of the migration statistics provided by Eurostat, reveals the most prominent discrepancies between stock and flow data, makes a summary of the main issues that affect the quality and completeness of the migration data, and identifies some solutions in order to improve the comparability, reliability and completeness. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, but an eclectic mix which extends the use of administrative and private data, matches the data coming from distinct sources in order to assess the full dimension of international migration, harmonizes the way in which data is compiled and reported by ...
The paper attempts to do a comprehensive analysis on how spending patterns were affected by the m... more The paper attempts to do a comprehensive analysis on how spending patterns were affected by the most severe economic crisis since the oil shocks in the 70’s. We have attempted to see which services have been significantly affected by the crisis, and whether social spending has risen and managed to counter the effects of the crisis. We have found that, despite generalized increase in social spending, the crisis had no major impact for some important social spending categories. Social protection revenue has increased and matched to a good extent social protection spending, which was also affected by a strong increase in the cohorts reaching retirement age. We also found that, contrary to other literature findings, spending on social services was countercyclical, increasing in the first years of the crisis, and declined afterwards. There is evidence that social spending managed to sustain a decrease in poverty and inequality during the crisis.
This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the comp... more This paper questions the validity of the statistical methods currently used in computing the composite indicators of well-being from their main subcomponents. The facts that most of the weights of the principal sub-components of the composite indicators are equal, that the determinants of well-being are correlated, and that the results are interpreted primarily in terms of country ranks, point out to the appropriateness of using a rank-based method for computing the composite indicators form their sub-indexes. A comparison of the actual ranks with ranks computed as averages of the ranks of sub-indexes for three well-known indicators of well-being, Human Development Index, Legatum Prosperity Index, and Social Progress Index, shows that results are almost the same. This calls into question the use of weighted averages of actual values of sub-components, as very high values for a sub-component increases a country’s relative rank, despite much lower performance on other sub-components, ...
The paper attempts to determine regional unemployment rates for European regions based on panel d... more The paper attempts to determine regional unemployment rates for European regions based on panel data with a relatively short time-series component. In the first part it is shown how the much of the evolution of regional unemployment rates is determined by national unemployment rates by industry and the regional employment structure. In the second part, a prediction model of regional unemployment rates from national unemployment rates by industry and regional employment structure is proposed, using unbalanced panel regression models with a relatively short time-series component. Specific predictive modeling approach is employed for producing and validating the predictions. Reliable predictions of regional unemployment rates that overcome the hysteresis effect present in the labour market data can be done using national unemployment rates by industry and regional employment structure.
Uploads
Papers by Emilia Titan
were affected by the most severe economic crisis since the oil shocks in the 70’s.
We have attempted to see which services have been significantly affected by the
crisis, and whether social spending has risen and managed to counter the effects
of the crisis. We have found that, despite generalized increase in social spending,
the crisis had no major impact for some important social spending categories.
Social protection revenue has increased and matched to a good extent social
protection spending, which was also affected by a strong increase in the cohorts
reaching retirement age. We also found that, contrary to other literature findings,
spending on social services was countercyclical, increasing in the first years of
the crisis, and declined afterwards. There is evidence that social spending managed
to sustain a decrease in poverty and inequality during the crisis.
were affected by the most severe economic crisis since the oil shocks in the 70’s.
We have attempted to see which services have been significantly affected by the
crisis, and whether social spending has risen and managed to counter the effects
of the crisis. We have found that, despite generalized increase in social spending,
the crisis had no major impact for some important social spending categories.
Social protection revenue has increased and matched to a good extent social
protection spending, which was also affected by a strong increase in the cohorts
reaching retirement age. We also found that, contrary to other literature findings,
spending on social services was countercyclical, increasing in the first years of
the crisis, and declined afterwards. There is evidence that social spending managed
to sustain a decrease in poverty and inequality during the crisis.