Papers by Elena Ianchovichina
Journal of Happiness Studies, Nov 30, 2023
This paper examines the influence of the 2015 economic crisis on subjective well-being (SWB) and ... more This paper examines the influence of the 2015 economic crisis on subjective well-being (SWB) and the withdrawal of support for the incumbent party during the 2018 presidential election in Brazil. Using Gallup World Poll data and a post-election national survey conducted by the Center for Studies on Public Opinion, we find that the economic crisis influenced through different channels both SWB and vote switching. Worsening personal economic circumstances explain the decline in SWB in the aftermath of the crisis, while deteriorating perceptions about the economy explain the vote switching during the presidential election in 2018. Leadership disapproval played a role in both, but to different degrees. One possible explanation for the limited effect of personal economic circumstances on voting behavior in Brazil is that those who were most severely affected by the economic downturn, specifically the poorest individuals in the country, did not see voting for Bolsonaro as a feasible or desirable choice.
Review of Development Economics, Oct 10, 2019
The incidence of large-scale interstate wars has declined since the end of World War II, but that... more The incidence of large-scale interstate wars has declined since the end of World War II, but that of bilateral militarized conflicts has kept rising steadily (Harrison & Wolf, 2012). Civil wars also became more frequent during this period, but the trend reversed in the 1990s (Besley & Persson, 2008). Since then political violence has started manifesting increasingly in the form of terrorist attacks. This
행사명 : Frontiers in Development Polic
IEMed: Mediterranean yearbook, 2016
Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 17 16 15 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with ... more Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 17 16 15 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
World Bank policy research working paper, May 31, 2022
World Bank Publications, 2018
World Bank policy research working paper, Feb 2, 2022
The World Bank eBooks, Dec 28, 2017
If citing, it is advised that you check and use the publisher's definitive version for pagination... more If citing, it is advised that you check and use the publisher's definitive version for pagination, volume/issue, and date of publication details. And where the final published version is provided on the Research Portal, if citing you are again advised to check the publisher's website for any subsequent corrections.
China's WTO accession will have major implications for China and present both opportunities and c... more China's WTO accession will have major implications for China and present both opportunities and challenges for East Asia. We assess the possible channels through which China's accession to the WTO could affect East Asia and quantify these effects using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. China will be the biggest beneficiary of accession, followed by the industrialized and newly industrializing economies (NIEs) in East Asia. However, their benefits are small relative to the size of their economies and to the vigorous growth projected to occur in the region over the next 10 years. By contrast, developing countries in East Asia are expected to incur small declines in real GDP and welfare as a result of China's accession, mainly because with the elimination of quotas on Chinese textile and apparel exports to developed countries China will because a formidable competitor in areas in which these countries have comparative advantage. With WTO accession China will increase its demand for petrochemicals, electronics, machinery, and equipment from Japan and the Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs), and farm, timber, energy products, and other manufactures from the developing East Asian countries. New foreign investment is likely to flow into these expanding sectors. The overall impact on foreign investment is likely to be positive in the NIEs, but negative for the less developed East Asian countries as a result of the contraction of these economies' textile and apparel sector. As China becomes a more efficient supplier of services or a more efficient producer of high-end manufactures, its comparative advantage will shift into higher-end products. This is good news for the poor developing economies in East Asia, but implies that the impact of China's WTO accession on the NIEs may change to include heightened competition in global markets.
The World Bank eBooks, Apr 20, 2001
The European Union, Japan, and the United States have Japanese and European agricultural markets,... more The European Union, Japan, and the United States have Japanese and European agricultural markets, especially recently announced initiatives to improve market access the heavily protected Japanese market for meat and for the poorest countries. lanchovichina, Mattoo, and certain cereal grains. Olarreaga assess the impact on Sub-Saharan Africa of The smallness of Sub-Saharan Africa's trade ensures these initiatives and others that might be taken. that the costs of trade diversion for the Quad, other They find that fully unrestricted access to all the Quad developing countries, and the world would be on the countries (Canada, the European Union, Japan, and the whole negligible. One concern, however, is that United States) would produce substantial gains for Sub-preferential access to protected markets might lead Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to a 14 percent increase in non-Saharan Africa to produce goods in which it does not oil exports ($2.5 billion) and boosting real incomes by have a global comparative advantage, and the future about 1 percent ($1.8 billion). Most of these gains would erosion of these preferences might lead to adjustment come from preferential access to the highly protected costs. This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the implications of improved market access for developing countries. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank,
Pacific Economic Review, Oct 1, 2006
During the early 1990s, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China boomed, subsequently claiming a ... more During the early 1990s, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China boomed, subsequently claiming a large share of all Foreign Direct Investment in developing countries. However, the rate of growth in FDI slowed in the later 1990's, as investors' high expectations failed to fully materialize. With China's accession to the WTO at long last a reality, FDI growth has once again picked up. This paper formally explores the linkage between WTO accession and investment in China over the next two decades. The effects of a number of features of China's accession are examined, including: the removal of tariffs and quotas, the potential for improved productivity in the automobile sector due to production rationalization, and finally, the liberalization of rules governing direct trade and foreign investment in the service sectors. We find that investment and capital stocks increase substantially as a result of China's accession. Moreover, accession doubles the extent of foreign ownership of Chinese assets relative to the no-accession baseline by 2020. Central to this increase in foreign ownership is the expected catch-up in the productivity of the services sectors driven by the opening up of these sectors to foreign investment. The resulting impact on GDP is also large-22.5% higher in 2020 as a result of WTO accession. The static welfare gains (16% by 2020) are dampened due to the fact that a substantial share of the additional investment comes from overseas. These estimates are far larger than those predicted by earlier studies, which ignored the reforms affecting the services sectors of China, and which also abstracted from capital accumulation and international capital mobility. Given its critical importance to our analysis, future research should be directed towards narrowing the uncertainty associated with the impact of accession on productivity in the services sectors.
Oxford University Press eBooks, Jul 1, 2016
Which foreign direct investments are most affected by political instability? Analysis of quarterl... more Which foreign direct investments are most affected by political instability? Analysis of quarterly greenfield investment flows into countries in the Middle East and North Africa during the period from 2003 to 2012 shows that adverse political shocks are associated with significantly reduced investment inflows in the non-resource tradable sectors. By contrast, investments in natural resource sectors and non-tradable activities appear insensitive to such shocks. Political instability is thus associated with increased reliance on nontradables and aggravated resource dependence. JEL codes: F21, F23, O13, O16, P48 How does political instability affect the level and composition of foreign direct investment (FDI)? The answer to this question has important implications for countries' development trajectories since not all types of FDI are considered equally conducive to economic growth. Alfaro (2003) demonstrates that the growth spillovers associated with FDI vary across sectors, being positive in manufacturing, ambiguous in the services sector, and negative in the primary sector.
World Bank policy research working paper, Jun 24, 2022
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
The World Bank eBooks, Dec 28, 2017
The first part of the report provides an overview of recent developments and the short-term macro... more The first part of the report provides an overview of recent developments and the short-term macroeconomic outlook. This part was written by Elena Ianchovichina with inputs from Damir Cosic, Mustapha Rouis, and the following country economists:
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Papers by Elena Ianchovichina