Papers by Dr-Mahmoud Touny
Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, 2016
Recently, herd behavior earned the attention of researchers in the interpretation of the investme... more Recently, herd behavior earned the attention of researchers in the interpretation of the investment decision-making process in the financial markets. This study aims to explore the attitudinal determinants of herd behavior of individual investors in the Egyptian Exchange. We examine four attitudinal determinants which include decision accuracy, hasty decision, overconfidence, and investor mood, and test to what extent the effects of these determinants differ according to demographic characteristics of individual investors such as gender, educational level, age, experience, and income. The results indicate that decision accuracy, hasty decision, and investor mood were the main attitudinal determinants that explain why individual investors follow herd behaviour, but the effect of these factors may differ according to the investor's demographic characteristics.
International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, 2021
International journal of economics and finance, Jun 20, 2013
The main objective of this study is to investigate the long run trade-off between unemployment an... more The main objective of this study is to investigate the long run trade-off between unemployment and inflation in Egypt through the period (1974-2011) using Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results of ADF test indicate that both series are cointegrated of order one I(1). Add to that, the outcomes of cointegration analysis confirm a positive relationship between changes in inflation rate and unemployment gap in the long run, which is consistent with "Locus Critique" where a policy of inflation would fail to reduce the unemployment rate in the long run, because workers would eventually adjust their expectations of inflation. Results of the ECM have illustrated that the error-correction term is negative and significant with an adjustment coefficient of-0.280, pointing out that changes in inflation rate adjust to its equilibrium level in the long run with 28% of the adjustment taking place within the first year.
المجلة العربية للإدارة, Jun 30, 2012
This study aims to provide further empirical evidence about the relationship between stock market... more This study aims to provide further empirical evidence about the relationship between stock market development and economic growth by utilizing unbalanced panel data from some Arab countries
This paper has analyzed the determinants of domestic savings in Egypt dining the period (1975-200... more This paper has analyzed the determinants of domestic savings in Egypt dining the period (1975-2006) in both the short run and the long run. The unit root test was used to test the stationary of all time series, and after that the first difference and the first lag of all varaides are used in the estimated model in order to get the best results. The results indicate that the growth of per capita income, the development of financial market, and the real interest rate are found to have positive influence on domestic savings especially on the long-run. Macroeconomic uncertainty as measured by the inflation rate (INF) is found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on domestic saving ratio in both the short run and the long run This provides support of precautionary motives for saving in the face of increased economic uncertainty. In addition, budget deficit ratio appears to have a negative effect on domestic saving ratio. This mans that higher government savings partially crowd out private savings, and thus does not provide support of the existence of MI Realtaill Equivalence. Finally. current account deficit recorded a negative and statistically significant effect on both the short run and the long run, which imply that external saving may tend to act as a substitute to domestic private saving. trk.1 5 ;Oil ac Aka* jt6,11 ii.7:0141.41911 Yale us!" 3-al :Ai ki4.011411 0 1 .4 4-1 4 a..41 usaiLt (2006-1975) Grip JJ3 r•-• vi 4, 1 • 41 ASP 4141 a• ab/a:IJ 46 •III Ca "4 12 Coss. O.•,31411 biji1 ji* J.-au-Au t os...1 f .:0 "Isla jai x l j+in .41 j4:141 ail JAI ja.t. f14.11..1 jtIa1›. 44j tati...J1 j1G LOA. LAS., tel■jII a.. &se*. cA i...1).01• 4....1. 4 a4 ii tr il .11,01.11, c3b-11 Jsa cr. 40+4. 0).14,01.:1 0 rk3Ya al 414.* 4j joau ,.i 4 .64 J.irtl JaaA eir ic 4 ,1114 1/4,6.4 jia111 jar 4 ,IG 49 .1411-Lt 1:14 4.1lo41ll n441 ji j.) u4 4.1113
Progress in Industrial Ecology, An International Journal, 2015
This study aims to assess efforts done by industrial firms in the Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia ... more This study aims to assess efforts done by industrial firms in the Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia to control pollution and tries to investigate the different factors that may affect decisions of environmental control efforts at a plant level. The results indicate that firms tend to use less efficient methods to abate their pollution. With regard to the determinants of firms' pollution abatement activities, the results refer that international competition, social responsibility and worker safety have a significant and positive effect on of activities of reducing all forms of pollution, whereas pressures of domestic consumer have only a positive impact on reducing the level of firms' solid waste and water pollution. On the other hand, fines and industrial associations tend to have a significant effect on only activities of reducing air pollution, while green pressure groups and financial support are found to have an insignificant effect.
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 2016
This study attempts to empirically investigate the direct impact of corruption and political inst... more This study attempts to empirically investigate the direct impact of corruption and political instability and the interactive effects of corruption and political instability along with other factors on FDI inflows to the Middle East countries using panel dynamic ordinary least square procedure. Findings of this study show that the effect of corruption on FDI inflows is mixed and depends on the level of political instability of the country. It confirms that corruption has a negative effect on FDI inflow in countries with high political instability but a positive impact in countries with relatively low levels of political instability. This implies that corruption is unfavourable for FDI inflows in countries with high levels of political instability and therefore drives out FDI inflows. The results imply some policy recommendations for policy makers in the Middle East countries especially those with high corruption and political instability levels to take a range of anti-corruption measures to get rid of corruption and enhance political stability.
EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo
Afro-Asian J. of Finance and Accounting
Stock market volatility (SMV) and investor decisions are influenced greatly by macroeconomic and ... more Stock market volatility (SMV) and investor decisions are influenced greatly by macroeconomic and political variables at the global, regional and local levels. By using unbalanced panel data from some Middle East countries over the period from 1996 to 2016, this study aims to provide empirical evidence about the macro determinants of SMV. The results of the feasible generalised least squares (FGLS) model indicate that, on the one hand, inflation, corruption and the stock market capitalisation and turnover ratios have a positive and significant impact on SMV. On the other hand, economic growth, financial freedom and stock market returns seem to have a negative and significant effect on SMV. The outcomes of this study provide some policy implications for Middle East countries' policy makers in managing and relieving volatility in their countries' stock market prices.
International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, 2021
This study aims to provide further empirical evidence about the relationship between stock market... more This study aims to provide further empirical evidence about the relationship between stock market development and economic growth by utilizing unbalanced panel data from some Arab countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunis, and United Arab Emirates) over the period (1980 – 2008). The results of both fixed and random effects models indicate that there is a positive effect of stock market development (as measured by Market Capitalization Ratio and Turnover Ratio) on economic growth. This result supports the viewpoints that stock market development can enhance economic growth, and counters the skeptic's point of view that the volatile nature of stock markets and speculation in developing countries may retard economic growth. On the other hand, the results support that economic growth has positive and statistically significant influence on stock market development indicators. This conclusion points out that there is a reciprocal relationship between stock ma...
Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, 2016
Recently, herd behavior earned the attention of researchers in the interpretation of the investme... more Recently, herd behavior earned the attention of researchers in the interpretation of the investment decision-making process in the financial markets. This study aims to explore the attitudinal determinants of herd behavior of individual investors in the Egyptian Exchange. We examine four attitudinal determinants which include decision accuracy, hasty decision, overconfidence, and investor mood, and test to what extent the effects of these determinants differ according to demographic characteristics of individual investors such as gender, educational level, age, experience, and income. The results indicate that decision accuracy, hasty decision, and investor mood were the main attitudinal determinants that explain why individual investors follow herd behaviour, but the effect of these factors may differ according to the investor's demographic characteristics.
The global economy is witnessing major changes and developments in the field of foreign direct in... more The global economy is witnessing major changes and developments in the field of foreign direct investment and its motives and trends among developed countries and developing countries, especially those emerging economies. On the other hand, there are significant changes in the pattern of recent economic blocs that have a significant impact on the future of existing economic blocs and on the theories that explain and justify the existence of these blocs and the gains and losses of these blocs and the conditions for their realization. The objective of this study is to analyze the most important recent trends in FDI and its determinants and to provide a vision that helps to understand and analyze these trends. This study also examines the most important current developments in existing economic blocs and their patterns, how the gains and losses of member states can be recalculated, and the new patterns of integration that can prevail in international economic relations.
المجلة العربية للإدارة, 2013
This paper has analyzed the determinants of national savings in Saudi Arabia during the period 19... more This paper has analyzed the determinants of national savings in Saudi Arabia during the period 1980-2010. The ADF test is used to investigate the stationary of all time series, and after that, we estimated unrestricted VAR model. The results of the estimated VAR model provide evidence that the growth rate of per capita income, population growth, and financial depths have positive influence on national savings in Saudi Arabia during the period study. On the other hand, macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by the inflation indicates a negative but insignificant effect on national saving rate. Foreign reserves ratio appears to have a negative effect on national savings, which implies that foreign saving may tend to act as a substitute to national savings. Moreover,the results of our study confirm that budget deficit ratio has a negative and statistically significant effect on the national saving ratio, which does not support the Ricardian hypothesis due to the limited use of taxes as a tool of fiscal policy in Saudi Arabia. This result suggests that government should use fiscal policy to reduce budget deficit, and restructure government expenditure in the way that can boost private savings and thus offset the negative effect on national savings.
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 2016
This study attempts to empirically investigate the direct impact of corruption and political inst... more This study attempts to empirically investigate the direct impact of corruption and political instability and the interactive effects of corruption and political instability along with other factors on FDI inflows to the Middle East countries using panel dynamic ordinary least square procedure. Findings of this study show that the effect of corruption on FDI inflows is mixed and depends on the level of political instability of the country. It confirms that corruption has a negative effect on FDI inflow in countries with high political instability but a positive impact in countries with relatively low levels of political instability. This implies that corruption is unfavourable for FDI inflows in countries with high levels of political instability and therefore drives out FDI inflows. The results imply some policy recommendations for policy makers in the Middle East countries especially those with high corruption and political instability levels to take a range of anti-corruption measures to get rid of corruption and enhance political stability.
This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants, such as economic growth, financial liberaliza... more This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants, such as economic growth, financial liberalization, trade openness, economic globalization and monetary policies, of the development of the banking sector in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The study depends on the cointegration analysis to find out the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables of the model. The results point out that economic growth has a long-run negative impact, whereas financial liberalization and real interest rate record a significant positive effect on credit to the private sector in both Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Economic globalization, however, seems to have just a significant positive effect in Saudi Arabia. Add to that, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on the credit to the private sector in Egypt whereas the growth rate of money supply exerts a positive and significant effect on the development of the banking sector in Saudi Arabia. This study reveals some implications for policy mak...
This paper investigated the determinants of the rate of return on investment using78 listed firms... more This paper investigated the determinants of the rate of return on investment using78 listed firms in Egyptian Stock Exchange. We used a panel data procedure by applying random effects model using Generalized Method of Moments estimation. The main results showed that the determinants of the return on investment were more effective in service sector than in productive sector. Also, the return on investment in firms with age less than 25 years was more affected by its determinants than firms with age more than 25 years. Add to that, the determinants of the return on investment had more effective role in explaining the changes in the return on investment when operating and financial risks were low. With the absence of role duality, the determinants of the return on investment played a powerful role to clarify the changes in the return on investment. Moreover, the changes in the return on investment well explained by its determinants in firms with large board size. In the light of these ...
المجلة العلمیة للإقتصاد و التجارة, 2020
FI's multidimensional aspect is crucial to a country's economic and financial growth. This study ... more FI's multidimensional aspect is crucial to a country's economic and financial growth. This study aimed to examine FI's impact on Egypt's growth in GDP and to focus significantly on FI indicators such as the Number of ATMs and the deposits in various financial institutions. The researcher used secondary data to help with the analysis of the correlation between GDP and other independent variables. The authors analyzed the data by using multiple regression models, and the model was statistically significant. The results of the study found a positive correlation between GDP and the number of ATMs and the negative relationships between GDP and total deposits. 20 20 / 9 / 16 publishing date ahmoud-nesrin a-Mohamed the impact of financial inclusion
International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2013
The main objective of this study is to investigate the long run trade-off between unemployment an... more The main objective of this study is to investigate the long run trade-off between unemployment and inflation in Egypt through the period (1974-2011) using Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results of ADF test indicate that both series are cointegrated of order one I(1). Add to that, the outcomes of cointegration analysis confirm a positive relationship between changes in inflation rate and unemployment gap in the long run, which is consistent with "Locus Critique" where a policy of inflation would fail to reduce the unemployment rate in the long run, because workers would eventually adjust their expectations of inflation. Results of the ECM have illustrated that the error-correction term is negative and significant with an adjustment coefficient of-0.280, pointing out that changes in inflation rate adjust to its equilibrium level in the long run with 28% of the adjustment taking place within the first year.
This study aims to measure the impact of anti-dumping (AD) actions taken by the Egyptian governme... more This study aims to measure the impact of anti-dumping (AD) actions taken by the Egyptian government on the behavior of the Egyptian imports during the period (2001-2009). The main hypothesis of this research is whether the AD measures applied by the Egyptian authorities on imports from some countries has resulted in gains for the domestic market by restricting trade (trade depression), or that such actions have led to the diversion of trade to other countries not subject to these procedures. The econometric methodology used in this research is the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator suggested by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995), and Blundell and Bond (1998). The results of the study reported that AD actions take some time (at least two years) to have a negative effect on imports from countries targeted by these actions. On the other hand, such actions lead to a shift of some of these imports to countries not subject to these restrictions. Henc...
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Papers by Dr-Mahmoud Touny