Papers by Christopher Lowenkamp
Federal Probation, Sep 1, 2016
Psychological Assessment, Jun 1, 2016
Higher order scores derived from the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS; ... more Higher order scores derived from the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS; Walters, 1995) have been found to predict recidivism in released prison inmates with effect sizes in the low-moderate to medium range. The current study sought to determine whether the PICTS is capable of predicting general recidivism in a sample of 81,881 male and 14,519 female offenders on federal probation or supervised release. Results indicated that the PICTS General Criminal Thinking, Proactive, and Reactive scores and 6 of the 7 thinking style scales predicted recidivism in follow-ups of 6 or more months, 12 or more months, and 24 or more months with effect sizes in the low-moderate to medium range. The effect sizes were reduced to small and low-moderate, respectively, when age and prior arrests were controlled for in a series of partial correlations. It was also noted that the PICTS General Criminal Thinking score contributed significant diagnostic information to recidivism prediction in both males and females above and beyond the information provided by a comprehensive risk assessment procedure. These results indicate that the PICTS may be a useful adjunct to other risk assessment procedures in providing comprehensive risk prediction and management services to offenders under community supervision.
Social Science Research Network, 2020
Although risk assessment has increasingly been used as a tool to help reform the criminal justice... more Although risk assessment has increasingly been used as a tool to help reform the criminal justice system, some stakeholders are adamantly opposed to using algorithms. The principal concern is that any benefits achieved by safely reducing rates of incarceration will be offset by costs to racial justice claimed to be inherent in the algorithms themselves. But fairness trade-offs are inherent to the task of predicting recidivism, whether the prediction is made by an algorithm or human. Based on a matched sample of 67,784 Black and White federal supervisees assessed with the Post Conviction Risk Assessment, we compared how three alternative strategies for "debiasing" algorithms affect these trade-offs, using arrest for a violent crime as the criterion . These candidate algorithms all strongly predict violent reoffending (areas under the curve = 0.71-72), but vary in their association with race (r = 0.00-0.21) and shift trade-offs between balance in positive predictive value and false-positive rates. Providing algorithms with access to race (rather than omitting race or "blinding" its effects) can maximize calibration and minimize imbalanced error rates. Implications for policymakers with value preferences for efficiency versus equity are discussed.
American Journal of Criminal Justice, May 29, 2017
Jurisdictions at every level throughout the U.S. are paying an increasing amount of attention to ... more Jurisdictions at every level throughout the U.S. are paying an increasing amount of attention to pretrial case processing. The primary areas of attention appear to be on risk assessment development and classification, the effects of pretrial detention, and the effectiveness of various strategies that may impact a defendant's failure to appear for their assigned court dates. The current study is a randomized experimental trial designed to test the effects of court notification strategies, using failure to appear (FTA) as the primary outcome of interest. Our findings do not reveal a palpable effect for court notification strategies (telephone calls, and text messaging, with other conditions layered in), but do indicate and reinforce the utility of an actuarial method of risk classification when predicting likelihood of FTA.
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd eBooks, Nov 29, 2017
Social Science Research Network, 2015
The Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) is a correctional assessment tool utilized by federal ... more The Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) is a correctional assessment tool utilized by federal probation officers that identifies offenders most likely to commit new crimes and the criminogenic characteristics that, if changed, could reduce the likelihood of recidivism. We explored how changes in offender risk influence the likelihood of recidivism by tracking a population of 64,716 offenders placed on federal supervision with multiple PCRA assessments. In general, offenders scoring in the high, moderate, and low/moderate risk categories at their initial assessment and experiencing decreases in their risk classifications were less likely to recidivate compared to their counterparts whose risk levels remained unchanged or increased. Conversely, increases in offender risk were associated with higher rates of reoffending behavior. Notably, we saw no recidivism reduction for offenders in the lowest risk category if they received decreases in their overall PCRA scores.
Federal Probation, Sep 1, 2016
The validity and intellectual honesty of conducting and reporting analysis are critical, since th... more The validity and intellectual honesty of conducting and reporting analysis are critical, since the ramifications of published data, accurate or misleading, may have consequences for years to come.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, Sep 2, 2020
In the federal supervision system, officers have discretion to depart from the risk designations ... more In the federal supervision system, officers have discretion to depart from the risk designations provided by the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) instrument. This component of the risk classification process is referred to as the supervision override. While the rationale for allowing overrides is that actuarial scores cannot always capture an individual's unique characteristics, there is relatively limited literature on the actual effects of overrides on an actuarial tool's predictive efficacies. This study examines overrides in the federal system by assessing the extent to which risk levels are adjusted through overrides as well as the impact of overrides on the PCRA's risk prediction effectiveness. Findings show that nearly all overrides lead to an upward risk reclassification, that overrides tend to place substantial numbers of persons under federal supervision (especially those convicted of sex offenses) into the highest supervision categories, and that overrides result in a deterioration of the PCRA's risk prediction capacities.
Criminal Justice and Behavior, Nov 12, 2018
The pretrial risk assessment instrument (PTRA) was developed for use in the U.S. federal pretrial... more The pretrial risk assessment instrument (PTRA) was developed for use in the U.S. federal pretrial system. Specifically, this instrument was constructed to help officers assess the likelihood that defendants will commit pretrial violations including being rearrested for new crimes, missing court appearances, or being revoked while on pretrial release. This research evaluates the PTRA's capacity to predict pretrial violations on 85,369 defendants with officer-completed PTRA assessments. Bivariate and multivariate models were estimated by race, ethnicity, and sex. Results show that the PTRA performs well at predicting pretrial violations as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.65 to 0.73 depending upon the subsamples and outcomes being predicted. Moreover, the PTRA predicted new criminal arrest activity equally well for non-Hispanic whites and Blacks, while for Hispanics and females, findings show the instrument validly predicting rearrest activity, with some evidence of overprediction depending upon the outcome being examined.
Social Science Research Network, Nov 9, 2020
This large-scale project could not have been completed without the efforts and cooperation of man... more This large-scale project could not have been completed without the efforts and cooperation of many programs, agencies, and individuals. The authors wish to thank the directors and staff at the programs included in this project. They were willing to answer questionnaires, complete surveys, and assist in the collection of information and data for this project.
Federal Probation, Sep 1, 2016
ALTHOUGH SEVERAL CRIMINAL justice theories exist as a roadmap to effective supervi sion, the Risk... more ALTHOUGH SEVERAL CRIMINAL justice theories exist as a roadmap to effective supervi sion, the Risk, Needs, and Responsivity (RNR) model dominates the scholarly literature. A quick search in the Criminal Justice Abstracts Database reveals 140 peer-reviewed publica tions referencing the RNR model since 2000. As Andrews and Bonta (2007) note, the RNR model has been used, with increasing success, in North American and around the world. The authors further comment on the robustness of the model, but observe (2007:15) that "The greatest challenge is transferring the RNR model into 'real world' settings. " Research on correctional services and the risk principle certainly supports this contention. In a review of 38 correctional programs, researchers found only 1 program that met the criteria for varying programming intensity and duration by risk (Lowenkamp, 2004). Similarly, Lovins (2012) found that 36 out of 134 correctional treatment programs reviewed were varying program duration by risk. Finally, Lowenkamp, Pealer, Smith, and Latessa (2004) found that approximately 33 percent of supervision-based programs in Ohio were tar geting high-risk offenders or varying program
Over the recent past there have been several meta-analyses and primary studies that support the i... more Over the recent past there have been several meta-analyses and primary studies that support the importance of the risk principle. Oftentimes these studies, particularly the metaanalyses, are limited in their ability to assess how the actual implementation of the risk principle by correctional agencies affects effectiveness in reducing recidivism. Furthermore, primary studies are typically limited to the assessment of one or two programs, which again limits the types of analyses conducted. This study, using data from two independent studies of 97 correctional programs, investigates how adherence to the risk principle by targeting offenders who are higher risk and varying length of stay and services by level of risk affects program effectiveness in reducing recidivism. Overall, this research indicates that for residential and nonresidential programs, adhering to the risk principle has a strong relationship with a program's ability to reduce recidivism.
Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, Aug 31, 2017
Criminal Justice and Behavior, Dec 7, 2016
We provide a comparison of analyses used to estimate predictive validity, across fixed (logistic ... more We provide a comparison of analyses used to estimate predictive validity, across fixed (logistic regression and area under the curve receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]) and variable (Cox regression and Harrell’s C) lengths of follow-up. This study adds to research demonstrating a relationship between time at risk offense free and recidivism in two ways. First, reoffending hazard rates were calculated across levels of general offending risk to better understand how failure relates to time at risk. Second, this research compared validity estimates derived from Cox and logistic regression analyses to examine the importance of variable versus fixed follow-up periods. Results show that risk declines as a function of time offense free for all but low risk offenders. In addition, findings demonstrate remarkable stability in estimates of validity after just 7 months of follow-up. Finally, comparisons of Cox and logistic regression analyses, along with their related Harrell’s C and AUC-ROC validity estimates, revealed little substantive differences in prediction
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Papers by Christopher Lowenkamp