This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/authorsrights
Governments often attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making i... more Governments often attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making implicit or explicit guarantees of uncertain credibility. Confidence in these guarantees presumably alters the size of the financial sector, but observing the long-run consequences of failed guarantees is difficult in the modern era. We look to America's free-banking era and compare the consequences of a broken guarantee during the Indiana-centered Panic of 1854 to the Panic of 1857 in which guarantees were honored. Our estimates of a model of endogenous market structure indicate substantial negative long-run consequences to financial depth when panics cast doubt upon a government's ability to honor its guarantees.
We consider the relationship between prices and market structure for office supply superstores in... more We consider the relationship between prices and market structure for office supply superstores in the U.S. which was central to the Federal Trade Commission's opposition to the merger of Staples and Office Depot. Due to potential biases in a standard regression, we employ a two-stage approach in which a model of endogenous market structure provides correction terms for a second stage price regression. Using a cross-section of data on market structures and Staples' prices, we find that excluding the correction term substantially distorts the importance of competitors as the two-stage model yields stronger negative relationships between prices and market structure variables.
I extend the Salop circle treatment to construct a model in which consumers first make discrete c... more I extend the Salop circle treatment to construct a model in which consumers first make discrete choices among symmetric sellers and then choose a continuous amount to purchase. The reduced-form pricing equation of this model identifies several pertinent structural parameters. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that 1) demand shifters and rotators can be distinguished (thus dominating the descriptive regression), 2) cost parameters are identified but imprecise, and 3) the most likely specification error conservatively biases estimates toward zero.
We separately use the difference-indifferences technique and the synthetic control method on coun... more We separately use the difference-indifferences technique and the synthetic control method on county-level data to test the impact of mandatory menu labeling laws on obesity and diabetes rates. Results show a decline in the growth of obesity rates following passage of the law at the state level in California and for six counties on the East Coast. We identify no significant impact to diabetes rates.
We expand the set of outcomes considered by the tournament literature to include draws and use ga... more We expand the set of outcomes considered by the tournament literature to include draws and use games from postwar chess tournaments to see whether strategic behavior can be important in such scenarios. In particular, we examine whether players from the former Soviet Union acted as a cartel in international all-play-all tournaments-intentionally drawing against one another in order to focus effort on non-Soviet opponents-to maximize the chance of some Soviet winning. Using data from international qualifying tournaments as well as USSR national tournaments, we consider several tests for collusion. Our results are inconsistent with Soviet competition but consistent with Soviet draw-collusion that yielded substantial benefits to the cartel. Simulations of the period's five premier international competitions (the FIDE Candidates tournaments) suggest that the observed Soviet sweep was a 60%-probability event under collusion but only a 25%-probability event had the Soviet players not colluded.
The Midwest's propane market saw significant price increases in the 2013-14 winter with attendant... more The Midwest's propane market saw significant price increases in the 2013-14 winter with attendant accusations of gouging. We estimate demand and supply to consider whether that winter's harsh conditions and low inventories enabled distributors to exercise transient market power. Our estimates suggest that prices were 20% higher than competitive predictions.
International Journal of Industrial Organization, Jul 1, 2008
I add to the empirical literature on vertical contracting and wholesaler conduct by using retaile... more I add to the empirical literature on vertical contracting and wholesaler conduct by using retailer entry conditions to infer unobserved choice variables and equilibrium responses to prices and advertising. After estimating the US demand for theatrical motion pictures from 1990-96, I apply these techniques to compare observed outcomes to predictions under various distributorconduct hypotheses. While several caveats apply, results indicate that the hypothesis of competition among distributors fails to describe advertising levels or aggregate payments of theaters to studios. The hypothesis of some collusion among distributors, however, matches the data fairly well.
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Jun 1, 2013
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/authorsrights
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are
We consider a policy reform relaxing price controls in American pari-mutuel wagering on horse rac... more We consider a policy reform relaxing price controls in American pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing by examining bookie behavior in Australia's fixed-odds gambling sector. Descriptive regressions indicate that bookmaker takeouts (the effective prices of races) vary substantially and systematically with race characteristics, though in sometimes counterintuitive ways. Estimates of an explicitly reduced form model of bookie takeout, however, qualitatively match both intuition and prior findings in the literature. Counterfactuals using these estimates suggest that regulatory reform that permits racecourses to alter takeout across races would increase variable profit by 3-6%.
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, May 1, 2009
We expand the set of outcomes considered by the tournament literature to include draws and use ga... more We expand the set of outcomes considered by the tournament literature to include draws and use games from postwar chess tournaments to see whether strategic behavior can be important in such scenarios. In particular, we examine whether players from the former Soviet Union acted as a cartel in international all-play-all tournaments-intentionally drawing against one another in order to focus effort on non-Soviet opponents-to maximize the chance of some Soviet winning. Using data from international qualifying tournaments as well as USSR national tournaments, we consider several tests for collusion. Our results are inconsistent with Soviet competition but consistent with Soviet draw-collusion that yielded substantial benefits to the cartel. Simulations of the period's five premier international competitions (the FIDE Candidates tournaments) suggest that the observed Soviet sweep was a 60%-probability event under collusion but only a 25%-probability event had the Soviet players not colluded.
Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, Dec 1, 2007
Information transmission among consumers (i.e., word of mouth) has received little empirical exam... more Information transmission among consumers (i.e., word of mouth) has received little empirical examination. I offer a technique that can identify and measure the impact of word of mouth, and apply it to data from U.S. theatrical movie admissions. While variables and movie fixed effects comprise the bulk of observed variation, the variance attributable to word of mouth is statistically significant. Results indicate approximately 10% of the variation in consumer expectations of movies can be directly or indirectly attributed to information transmission. Information appears to affect consumer behavior quickly, with the length of a movie's run mattering more than the number of prior admissions. I thank the editor and two anonymous referees for comments on an earlier draft that greatly improved the paper. Seminar participants at Washington University in St. Louis and the DeSantis Center's Business and Economics Scholars Workshop also provided helpful feedback. The usual caveat applies.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Jul 24, 2014
Governments often attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making i... more Governments often attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making implicit or explicit guarantees of uncertain credibility. Confidence in these guarantees presumably alters the size of the financial sector, but observing the long-run consequences of failed guarantees is difficult in the modern era. We look to America's free-banking era and compare the consequences of a broken guarantee during the Indiana-centered Panic of 1854 to the Panic of 1857 in which guarantees were honored. Our estimates of a model of endogenous market structure indicate substantial negative long-run consequences to financial depth when panics cast doubt upon a government's ability to honor its guarantees.
University "I propose agreement with Benford's law as a test of reasonableness for such data [fro... more University "I propose agreement with Benford's law as a test of reasonableness for such data [from economic models]." Varian, 1972, The American Statistician, p. 65.
Despite their joint importance to health care costs, the nature of the relationship between obesi... more Despite their joint importance to health care costs, the nature of the relationship between obesity and diabetes is contested within the medical literature. We leverage California's 2008 law mandating menu-labelling at restaurants to confirm that the law reduced obesity compared to the experience of counties not subject to such regulation. Despite this reduction in obesity, we find no California-specific reduction in the prevalence of diabetes and we find a significantly positive impact on the likelihood of new diabetes diagnoses. We evaluate a range of potential hypotheses that rationalize the divergent findings on obesity and diabetes.
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/authorsrights
Governments often attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making i... more Governments often attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making implicit or explicit guarantees of uncertain credibility. Confidence in these guarantees presumably alters the size of the financial sector, but observing the long-run consequences of failed guarantees is difficult in the modern era. We look to America's free-banking era and compare the consequences of a broken guarantee during the Indiana-centered Panic of 1854 to the Panic of 1857 in which guarantees were honored. Our estimates of a model of endogenous market structure indicate substantial negative long-run consequences to financial depth when panics cast doubt upon a government's ability to honor its guarantees.
We consider the relationship between prices and market structure for office supply superstores in... more We consider the relationship between prices and market structure for office supply superstores in the U.S. which was central to the Federal Trade Commission's opposition to the merger of Staples and Office Depot. Due to potential biases in a standard regression, we employ a two-stage approach in which a model of endogenous market structure provides correction terms for a second stage price regression. Using a cross-section of data on market structures and Staples' prices, we find that excluding the correction term substantially distorts the importance of competitors as the two-stage model yields stronger negative relationships between prices and market structure variables.
I extend the Salop circle treatment to construct a model in which consumers first make discrete c... more I extend the Salop circle treatment to construct a model in which consumers first make discrete choices among symmetric sellers and then choose a continuous amount to purchase. The reduced-form pricing equation of this model identifies several pertinent structural parameters. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that 1) demand shifters and rotators can be distinguished (thus dominating the descriptive regression), 2) cost parameters are identified but imprecise, and 3) the most likely specification error conservatively biases estimates toward zero.
We separately use the difference-indifferences technique and the synthetic control method on coun... more We separately use the difference-indifferences technique and the synthetic control method on county-level data to test the impact of mandatory menu labeling laws on obesity and diabetes rates. Results show a decline in the growth of obesity rates following passage of the law at the state level in California and for six counties on the East Coast. We identify no significant impact to diabetes rates.
We expand the set of outcomes considered by the tournament literature to include draws and use ga... more We expand the set of outcomes considered by the tournament literature to include draws and use games from postwar chess tournaments to see whether strategic behavior can be important in such scenarios. In particular, we examine whether players from the former Soviet Union acted as a cartel in international all-play-all tournaments-intentionally drawing against one another in order to focus effort on non-Soviet opponents-to maximize the chance of some Soviet winning. Using data from international qualifying tournaments as well as USSR national tournaments, we consider several tests for collusion. Our results are inconsistent with Soviet competition but consistent with Soviet draw-collusion that yielded substantial benefits to the cartel. Simulations of the period's five premier international competitions (the FIDE Candidates tournaments) suggest that the observed Soviet sweep was a 60%-probability event under collusion but only a 25%-probability event had the Soviet players not colluded.
The Midwest's propane market saw significant price increases in the 2013-14 winter with attendant... more The Midwest's propane market saw significant price increases in the 2013-14 winter with attendant accusations of gouging. We estimate demand and supply to consider whether that winter's harsh conditions and low inventories enabled distributors to exercise transient market power. Our estimates suggest that prices were 20% higher than competitive predictions.
International Journal of Industrial Organization, Jul 1, 2008
I add to the empirical literature on vertical contracting and wholesaler conduct by using retaile... more I add to the empirical literature on vertical contracting and wholesaler conduct by using retailer entry conditions to infer unobserved choice variables and equilibrium responses to prices and advertising. After estimating the US demand for theatrical motion pictures from 1990-96, I apply these techniques to compare observed outcomes to predictions under various distributorconduct hypotheses. While several caveats apply, results indicate that the hypothesis of competition among distributors fails to describe advertising levels or aggregate payments of theaters to studios. The hypothesis of some collusion among distributors, however, matches the data fairly well.
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Jun 1, 2013
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/authorsrights
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are
We consider a policy reform relaxing price controls in American pari-mutuel wagering on horse rac... more We consider a policy reform relaxing price controls in American pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing by examining bookie behavior in Australia's fixed-odds gambling sector. Descriptive regressions indicate that bookmaker takeouts (the effective prices of races) vary substantially and systematically with race characteristics, though in sometimes counterintuitive ways. Estimates of an explicitly reduced form model of bookie takeout, however, qualitatively match both intuition and prior findings in the literature. Counterfactuals using these estimates suggest that regulatory reform that permits racecourses to alter takeout across races would increase variable profit by 3-6%.
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, May 1, 2009
We expand the set of outcomes considered by the tournament literature to include draws and use ga... more We expand the set of outcomes considered by the tournament literature to include draws and use games from postwar chess tournaments to see whether strategic behavior can be important in such scenarios. In particular, we examine whether players from the former Soviet Union acted as a cartel in international all-play-all tournaments-intentionally drawing against one another in order to focus effort on non-Soviet opponents-to maximize the chance of some Soviet winning. Using data from international qualifying tournaments as well as USSR national tournaments, we consider several tests for collusion. Our results are inconsistent with Soviet competition but consistent with Soviet draw-collusion that yielded substantial benefits to the cartel. Simulations of the period's five premier international competitions (the FIDE Candidates tournaments) suggest that the observed Soviet sweep was a 60%-probability event under collusion but only a 25%-probability event had the Soviet players not colluded.
Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, Dec 1, 2007
Information transmission among consumers (i.e., word of mouth) has received little empirical exam... more Information transmission among consumers (i.e., word of mouth) has received little empirical examination. I offer a technique that can identify and measure the impact of word of mouth, and apply it to data from U.S. theatrical movie admissions. While variables and movie fixed effects comprise the bulk of observed variation, the variance attributable to word of mouth is statistically significant. Results indicate approximately 10% of the variation in consumer expectations of movies can be directly or indirectly attributed to information transmission. Information appears to affect consumer behavior quickly, with the length of a movie's run mattering more than the number of prior admissions. I thank the editor and two anonymous referees for comments on an earlier draft that greatly improved the paper. Seminar participants at Washington University in St. Louis and the DeSantis Center's Business and Economics Scholars Workshop also provided helpful feedback. The usual caveat applies.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Jul 24, 2014
Governments often attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making i... more Governments often attempt to increase the confidence of financial market participants by making implicit or explicit guarantees of uncertain credibility. Confidence in these guarantees presumably alters the size of the financial sector, but observing the long-run consequences of failed guarantees is difficult in the modern era. We look to America's free-banking era and compare the consequences of a broken guarantee during the Indiana-centered Panic of 1854 to the Panic of 1857 in which guarantees were honored. Our estimates of a model of endogenous market structure indicate substantial negative long-run consequences to financial depth when panics cast doubt upon a government's ability to honor its guarantees.
University "I propose agreement with Benford's law as a test of reasonableness for such data [fro... more University "I propose agreement with Benford's law as a test of reasonableness for such data [from economic models]." Varian, 1972, The American Statistician, p. 65.
Despite their joint importance to health care costs, the nature of the relationship between obesi... more Despite their joint importance to health care costs, the nature of the relationship between obesity and diabetes is contested within the medical literature. We leverage California's 2008 law mandating menu-labelling at restaurants to confirm that the law reduced obesity compared to the experience of counties not subject to such regulation. Despite this reduction in obesity, we find no California-specific reduction in the prevalence of diabetes and we find a significantly positive impact on the likelihood of new diabetes diagnoses. We evaluate a range of potential hypotheses that rationalize the divergent findings on obesity and diabetes.
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Papers by Charles Moul