ABSTRACT This chapter outlines the historical context of phenological observation and study in Au... more ABSTRACT This chapter outlines the historical context of phenological observation and study in Australia and New Zealand. Details of early records are given as they provide a valuable baseline against which current phenology may be assessed. It also sum-marises the results of phenological studies undertaken in recent years and identi-fies further long-term phenological data yet to be analysed. The information presented here begins to address the acknowledged lack of phenological studies undertaken in both countries. Community-based phenological networks and their contribution to the collection of phenological data are also described.
Following publication of the original article [1], one of the authors flagged that the images for... more Following publication of the original article [1], one of the authors flagged that the images for Figs. 2 and 3 were swapped in the published article-Fig. 2 had the image meant for Fig. 3 and vice versa. As such, the original article [1] has been updated to correct this error. The publisher apologizes for any inconvenience caused.
Background: Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to impleme... more Background: Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to implement a coordinated control programme. This programme resulted in a dramatic decrease in the number of cases and mortality however, malaria incidence remains high in the three most populated provinces. Anopheles farauti is the primary malaria vector and a better understanding of the spatial patterns parasite transmission is required in order to implement effective control measures. Previous entomological studies provide information on the ecological preferences of An. farauti but this information has never before been gathered and "translated" in useful tools as maps that provide information at both the national level and at the scale of villages, thus enabling local targeted control measures. Methods: A literature review and consultation with entomology experts were used to determine and select environmental preferences of An. farauti. Remote sensing images were processed to translate these preferences into geolocated information to allow them to be used as the basis for a Transmission Suitability Index (TSI). Validation was developed from independent previous entomological studies with georeferenced locations of An. farauti. Then, TSI was autoscaled to ten classes for mapping. Results: Key environmental preferences for the An. farauti were: distance to coastline, elevation, and availability of water sources. Based on these variables, a model was developed to provide a TSI. This TSI was developed using GIS and remote sensing image processing, resulting in maps and GIS raster layer for all the eight provinces and Honiara City at a 250 m spatial resolution. For a TSI ranging from 0 as not suitable to 13 as most suitable, all the previous collections of An. farauti had mean TSI value between 9 and 11 and were significantly higher than where the vector was searched for and absent. Resulting maps were provided after autoscaling the TSI into ten classes from 0 to 9 for visual clarity. Conclusions: The TSI model developed here provides useful predictions of likely malaria transmission larval sources based on the environmental preferences of the mosquito, An. farauti. These predictions can provide sufficient leadtime for agencies to target malaria prevention and control measures and can assist with effective deployment of limited resources. As the model is built on the known environmental preferences of An. farauti, the model should be completed and updated as soon as new information is available. Because the model did not include any other malaria transmission factors such as care availability, diagnostic time, treatment, prevention, and entomological parameters other than the ecological preferences neither, our suitability mapping represents the upper bound of transmission areas. The results of this study can now being used as the basis of a malaria monitoring system which has been jointly implemented by the Solomon Islands National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The TSI model development method can be applied to other regions of the world where this mosquito occurs and could be adapted for other species.
Ocean temperature has been shown to be related to various demographic parameters in several seabi... more Ocean temperature has been shown to be related to various demographic parameters in several seabird species, but ultimately its influence on breeding success and survival are paramount. The timing and success of breeding of little penguins Eudyptula minor in southeastern Australia have been shown to correlate with local sea-surface temperatures (SST) and the east−west sea-temperature gradient across Bass Strait several months earlier. However, the causal links between ocean temperature and these demographic variables are not readily apparent due to their lagged nature. Using 41 yr of data on little penguins in southeastern Australia, we carried out a mark-recapture analysis to examine if the changing SST and sea-temperature gradient (east−west difference between 2 locations in Bass Strait) are associated with survival probability in the first year of life. First-year survival is correlated with (1) an east−west sea-temperature gradient in Bass Strait in the winter after fledging, with an increased temperature gradient associated with decreased survival and (2) the mean SST in the autumn after fledging, with warmer seas associated with increased survival. SST alone does not provide the best model for explaining first-year survival. Projections suggest that SST in southeastern Australia and sea-temperature gradient in Bass Strait will both increase due to global warming. The net effect of an increased sea-temperature gradient in winter (which has a negative influence) and increased SST in autumn (which has a positive influence) on first-year survival is uncertain, given the current lack of knowledge concerning the relationship between the sea-temperature gradient and SST in Bass Strait.
The largest colony of Little Penguins in Western Australia is located on Penguin Island, 50 km so... more The largest colony of Little Penguins in Western Australia is located on Penguin Island, 50 km south of Perth, and the breeding performance of a nestbox subpopulation has been monitored for over 20 years. From our long term data set, high SSTs in April and May, both offshore and close to the colony, are correlated with fewer chicks per pair and lower masses of chicks at fledging. In the summer of 2010 and throughout 2011, the waters along the south-western coast of Western Australia were impacted by a record strength Leeuwin Current and above average sea surface temperatures. In 2011, the penguins breeding participation and success were the lowest observed since monitoring began. Less than a third of the average number of eggs was laid and only 10% of these resulted in successful fledglings. In addition, four times the average number of penguins was found dead from August-December 2011. The dead penguins were found on Penguin Island and along the coast, up to 400 km south of the colony. Autopsies revealed that many of the penguins had died from starvation. Diet composition studies revealed that whitebait, Hyperlophus vittatus, the major constituent of their diet in previous years, was absent in 2011. It is likely that the anomalous oceanographic conditions impacted the presence of the whitebait in the local coastal waters. However the construction of a boat ramp adjacent to the major whitebait nursery in 2010 may have also played a role. These data highlight the ability to use penguins as sentinels of climate change but also the difficulty in decoupling environmental and anthropogenic causes of change. The next step is to determine how resilient both the coastal ecosystem and this genetically distinct penguin colony are.
International Journal of Biometeorology, Dec 23, 2015
Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based ac... more Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.
Using 20 years of data (1986 to 2008), we examined relationships between oceanographic variables ... more Using 20 years of data (1986 to 2008), we examined relationships between oceanographic variables (Fremantle sea level (FSL)-a proxy for the strength of the Leeuwin Current-and sea surface temperature (SST)) and five measures of little penguin, Eudyptula minor, breeding performance near Perth, Western Australia: namely (1) the laying date, (2) the number of chicks produced per pair, (3) the proportion of eggs that hatched, (4) the overall breeding success, defined as the proportion of total eggs laid that resulted in successful fledglings and (5) chick mass at fledging. The next three years of data (2009 to 2011) were used to test the performance of our statistical predictive models. FSL provided more accurate predictions of timing of laying, whereas SST provided more accurate predictions of breeding success. A later end to laying was associated with a high FSL during the summer (December to February) before breeding. Higher SSTs in the pre-breeding period from April to May corresponded to reduced breeding success, with lower fledgling success, fewer chicks per pair and generally a lower mean mass of chicks at fledging. The models predict that future oceanographic warming is expected to reduce the breeding success of this colony of little penguins.
<p>(a) Number of southern hemisphere phenological data sets by taxon and main foraging habi... more <p>(a) Number of southern hemisphere phenological data sets by taxon and main foraging habitat, (b) Summary of direction of trends in southern hemisphere phenological data (%) by main season of phenological event, as a percentage of cases.</p><p>(c) Summary of southern hemisphere phenological data (number) by phenophase.</p><p>Not all datasets had published trends (and those that did were predominantly from Australia, see text for details) or directions of change and only those which explicitly tested for temporal trends are included here. A subset of these, which also recorded the standard error of the trend estimate, is analysed in more detail in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514#pone.0075514.s002" target="_blank">Appendix S2</a>. No change indicates a trend was calculated but was not considered statistical significant (confidence level as reported in original papers, generally 5% level). Mean trend in days per decade. <sup>§</sup> Range is based on 5<sup>th</sup> to 95<sup>th</sup> percentiles. Ratio (−/+) is the ratio of the number of negative to the number of positive trends observed, irrespective of the significance of the trend. Not all studies provided trends estimates [e.g. days/year] so the sum of the two ratio values do not equal the sum of Earlier, Later, No Change (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514#pone-0075514-t002" target="_blank">Table 2a</a>), N in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514#pone-0075514-t002" target="_blank">Table 2b</a> or the sum of the two ratio values. South American plant datasets were classified as wet or dry season but, as none had trends recorded, they have been excluded from this table.</p
In the version of this Article originally published, there were a number of errors in the main te... more In the version of this Article originally published, there were a number of errors in the main text, the Supplementary Information, the Methods and Figures that needed to be corrected as a result of a coding error when quantifying the wave contributions to sea level rise. In the 'Interannual-to-multidecadal changes' section of the main text, from the sentence beginning "Overall, the median... ", '55%' has been corrected to '58%'; in the following sentence, "This large contribution is globally evenly distributed... " has been adjusted to "This large contribution is distributed... ", and '28%' and '27%' have been corrected to '38%' and '20%' , respectively; and in the sentence following that, '39%' and '16%' have been corrected to '36%' and '17%' , respectively. In the 'Sensitivity to the wave setup and swash formulation. ' section of the Methods, in equation (5), '0.756' , '0.165' and '0.0368' have been corrected to '0.757' , '0.167' and '0.044 H 0 2 ' , respectively; in the sentence beginning 'Wave contribution to... ' , '55%' has been corrected to '28%'; the following sentence has been corrected to read: "On average, swell contribution to the total wave contribution are of 64% for all three formulations. "; and in the final sentence, '(i) (49% and 51%...)' has been corrected to '(ii) (41% and 59%...)' , '(iii) (36% and 64%...)' has been corrected to '(i) (34% and 66%...)' , and '(ii) (19% and 81%...)' has been corrected to '(iii) (25% and 75%...)'. In the 'Significance of the trends. ' section of the Methods, in the final sentence '(Galápagos Islands, Callao, Clipperton Island and Tumaco)... ' has been corrected to read '(Galápagos Islands and Tumaco)… '. In the online versions of the article, Figs. 2-4 and Supplementary Figs 2-9 have been replaced to correct erroneous results that were the consequence of the coding error. All these figures are available as Supplementary Information to this correction notice.
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towar... more Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.
Traditional calendars document seasonal cycles and the communities’ relationships to their biophy... more Traditional calendars document seasonal cycles and the communities’ relationships to their biophysical environment and are often used by communities, particularly subsistence farmers, to synchronize their livelihood activities with the timing of ecological processes. Because the timing of these ecological processes is not always consistent from year to year, the use of traditional seasonal calendars can help communities to cope with climate variability, particularly when biophysical phenomena become less predictable in relation to the Gregorian calendar, as has been observed in relation to climate change. Although the structure and content of seasonal calendars vary across the Pacific Ocean region, for many indigenous communities, knowledge of seasonal calendars can increase their capacity to cope with climate variability and change. To increase the effectiveness of their products and enhance their relevance to and uptake by the community, several Pacific meteorological services are...
Many communities in the developing world do not utilize weather service broadcasts to the degree ... more Many communities in the developing world do not utilize weather service broadcasts to the degree expected. Reasons for this include inappropriate methods of forecast delivery, time scales and contexts that inhibit application to their needs. In addition, modern scientific forecasts are generally not well understood by the lay person without specialist training. For these, and other, reasons many indigenous communities in the Pacific Islands continue to predict seasonal climatic conditions through personal observations and the monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. phases of moon, behaviour of plants and animals). Built over many generations, traditional climate indicators can provide forecasts that are more accessible, better understood and cover a time and spatial scale more appropriate to the needs of many Pacific Island communities. However, increasing climate variability and land-use change may make traditional indicators less reliable than before, thus increasing the community's exposure to climate-related risks. In this context we argue that public understanding and potential use of forecasts could be greatly improved by verifying and incorporating reliable traditional climate indicators with modern scientific forecasts. We demonstrate how several Pacific Island Meteorological Services have set up a framework to accomplish this. We discuss these efforts and review the potential that traditional knowledge has to provide nature based solutions for increased adaptation to extreme events and climate variability in the region.
ABSTRACT This chapter outlines the historical context of phenological observation and study in Au... more ABSTRACT This chapter outlines the historical context of phenological observation and study in Australia and New Zealand. Details of early records are given as they provide a valuable baseline against which current phenology may be assessed. It also sum-marises the results of phenological studies undertaken in recent years and identi-fies further long-term phenological data yet to be analysed. The information presented here begins to address the acknowledged lack of phenological studies undertaken in both countries. Community-based phenological networks and their contribution to the collection of phenological data are also described.
Following publication of the original article [1], one of the authors flagged that the images for... more Following publication of the original article [1], one of the authors flagged that the images for Figs. 2 and 3 were swapped in the published article-Fig. 2 had the image meant for Fig. 3 and vice versa. As such, the original article [1] has been updated to correct this error. The publisher apologizes for any inconvenience caused.
Background: Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to impleme... more Background: Malaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to implement a coordinated control programme. This programme resulted in a dramatic decrease in the number of cases and mortality however, malaria incidence remains high in the three most populated provinces. Anopheles farauti is the primary malaria vector and a better understanding of the spatial patterns parasite transmission is required in order to implement effective control measures. Previous entomological studies provide information on the ecological preferences of An. farauti but this information has never before been gathered and "translated" in useful tools as maps that provide information at both the national level and at the scale of villages, thus enabling local targeted control measures. Methods: A literature review and consultation with entomology experts were used to determine and select environmental preferences of An. farauti. Remote sensing images were processed to translate these preferences into geolocated information to allow them to be used as the basis for a Transmission Suitability Index (TSI). Validation was developed from independent previous entomological studies with georeferenced locations of An. farauti. Then, TSI was autoscaled to ten classes for mapping. Results: Key environmental preferences for the An. farauti were: distance to coastline, elevation, and availability of water sources. Based on these variables, a model was developed to provide a TSI. This TSI was developed using GIS and remote sensing image processing, resulting in maps and GIS raster layer for all the eight provinces and Honiara City at a 250 m spatial resolution. For a TSI ranging from 0 as not suitable to 13 as most suitable, all the previous collections of An. farauti had mean TSI value between 9 and 11 and were significantly higher than where the vector was searched for and absent. Resulting maps were provided after autoscaling the TSI into ten classes from 0 to 9 for visual clarity. Conclusions: The TSI model developed here provides useful predictions of likely malaria transmission larval sources based on the environmental preferences of the mosquito, An. farauti. These predictions can provide sufficient leadtime for agencies to target malaria prevention and control measures and can assist with effective deployment of limited resources. As the model is built on the known environmental preferences of An. farauti, the model should be completed and updated as soon as new information is available. Because the model did not include any other malaria transmission factors such as care availability, diagnostic time, treatment, prevention, and entomological parameters other than the ecological preferences neither, our suitability mapping represents the upper bound of transmission areas. The results of this study can now being used as the basis of a malaria monitoring system which has been jointly implemented by the Solomon Islands National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The TSI model development method can be applied to other regions of the world where this mosquito occurs and could be adapted for other species.
Ocean temperature has been shown to be related to various demographic parameters in several seabi... more Ocean temperature has been shown to be related to various demographic parameters in several seabird species, but ultimately its influence on breeding success and survival are paramount. The timing and success of breeding of little penguins Eudyptula minor in southeastern Australia have been shown to correlate with local sea-surface temperatures (SST) and the east−west sea-temperature gradient across Bass Strait several months earlier. However, the causal links between ocean temperature and these demographic variables are not readily apparent due to their lagged nature. Using 41 yr of data on little penguins in southeastern Australia, we carried out a mark-recapture analysis to examine if the changing SST and sea-temperature gradient (east−west difference between 2 locations in Bass Strait) are associated with survival probability in the first year of life. First-year survival is correlated with (1) an east−west sea-temperature gradient in Bass Strait in the winter after fledging, with an increased temperature gradient associated with decreased survival and (2) the mean SST in the autumn after fledging, with warmer seas associated with increased survival. SST alone does not provide the best model for explaining first-year survival. Projections suggest that SST in southeastern Australia and sea-temperature gradient in Bass Strait will both increase due to global warming. The net effect of an increased sea-temperature gradient in winter (which has a negative influence) and increased SST in autumn (which has a positive influence) on first-year survival is uncertain, given the current lack of knowledge concerning the relationship between the sea-temperature gradient and SST in Bass Strait.
The largest colony of Little Penguins in Western Australia is located on Penguin Island, 50 km so... more The largest colony of Little Penguins in Western Australia is located on Penguin Island, 50 km south of Perth, and the breeding performance of a nestbox subpopulation has been monitored for over 20 years. From our long term data set, high SSTs in April and May, both offshore and close to the colony, are correlated with fewer chicks per pair and lower masses of chicks at fledging. In the summer of 2010 and throughout 2011, the waters along the south-western coast of Western Australia were impacted by a record strength Leeuwin Current and above average sea surface temperatures. In 2011, the penguins breeding participation and success were the lowest observed since monitoring began. Less than a third of the average number of eggs was laid and only 10% of these resulted in successful fledglings. In addition, four times the average number of penguins was found dead from August-December 2011. The dead penguins were found on Penguin Island and along the coast, up to 400 km south of the colony. Autopsies revealed that many of the penguins had died from starvation. Diet composition studies revealed that whitebait, Hyperlophus vittatus, the major constituent of their diet in previous years, was absent in 2011. It is likely that the anomalous oceanographic conditions impacted the presence of the whitebait in the local coastal waters. However the construction of a boat ramp adjacent to the major whitebait nursery in 2010 may have also played a role. These data highlight the ability to use penguins as sentinels of climate change but also the difficulty in decoupling environmental and anthropogenic causes of change. The next step is to determine how resilient both the coastal ecosystem and this genetically distinct penguin colony are.
International Journal of Biometeorology, Dec 23, 2015
Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based ac... more Seabirds are subject to the influences of local climate variables during periods of land-based activities such as breeding and, for some species, moult; particularly if they undergo a catastrophic moult (complete simultaneous moult) as do penguins. We investigated potential relationships between adult penguin survival and land-based climate variables (ambient air temperature, humidity and rainfall) using 46 years of mark-recapture data of little penguins Eudyptula minor gathered at a breeding colony on Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. Our results showed that adult penguin survival had a stronger association with land-based climate variables during the moult period, when birds were unable to go to sea for up to 3 weeks, than during the breeding period, when birds could sacrifice breeding success in favour of survival. Annual adult survival probability was positively associated with humidity during moult and negatively associated with rainfall during moult. Prolonged heat during breeding and moult had a negative association with annual adult survival. Local climate projections suggest increasing days of high temperatures, fewer days of rainfall which will result in more droughts (and by implication, lower humidity) and more extreme rainfall events. All of these predicted climate changes are expected to have a negative impact on adult penguin survival.
Using 20 years of data (1986 to 2008), we examined relationships between oceanographic variables ... more Using 20 years of data (1986 to 2008), we examined relationships between oceanographic variables (Fremantle sea level (FSL)-a proxy for the strength of the Leeuwin Current-and sea surface temperature (SST)) and five measures of little penguin, Eudyptula minor, breeding performance near Perth, Western Australia: namely (1) the laying date, (2) the number of chicks produced per pair, (3) the proportion of eggs that hatched, (4) the overall breeding success, defined as the proportion of total eggs laid that resulted in successful fledglings and (5) chick mass at fledging. The next three years of data (2009 to 2011) were used to test the performance of our statistical predictive models. FSL provided more accurate predictions of timing of laying, whereas SST provided more accurate predictions of breeding success. A later end to laying was associated with a high FSL during the summer (December to February) before breeding. Higher SSTs in the pre-breeding period from April to May corresponded to reduced breeding success, with lower fledgling success, fewer chicks per pair and generally a lower mean mass of chicks at fledging. The models predict that future oceanographic warming is expected to reduce the breeding success of this colony of little penguins.
<p>(a) Number of southern hemisphere phenological data sets by taxon and main foraging habi... more <p>(a) Number of southern hemisphere phenological data sets by taxon and main foraging habitat, (b) Summary of direction of trends in southern hemisphere phenological data (%) by main season of phenological event, as a percentage of cases.</p><p>(c) Summary of southern hemisphere phenological data (number) by phenophase.</p><p>Not all datasets had published trends (and those that did were predominantly from Australia, see text for details) or directions of change and only those which explicitly tested for temporal trends are included here. A subset of these, which also recorded the standard error of the trend estimate, is analysed in more detail in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514#pone.0075514.s002" target="_blank">Appendix S2</a>. No change indicates a trend was calculated but was not considered statistical significant (confidence level as reported in original papers, generally 5% level). Mean trend in days per decade. <sup>§</sup> Range is based on 5<sup>th</sup> to 95<sup>th</sup> percentiles. Ratio (−/+) is the ratio of the number of negative to the number of positive trends observed, irrespective of the significance of the trend. Not all studies provided trends estimates [e.g. days/year] so the sum of the two ratio values do not equal the sum of Earlier, Later, No Change (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514#pone-0075514-t002" target="_blank">Table 2a</a>), N in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0075514#pone-0075514-t002" target="_blank">Table 2b</a> or the sum of the two ratio values. South American plant datasets were classified as wet or dry season but, as none had trends recorded, they have been excluded from this table.</p
In the version of this Article originally published, there were a number of errors in the main te... more In the version of this Article originally published, there were a number of errors in the main text, the Supplementary Information, the Methods and Figures that needed to be corrected as a result of a coding error when quantifying the wave contributions to sea level rise. In the 'Interannual-to-multidecadal changes' section of the main text, from the sentence beginning "Overall, the median... ", '55%' has been corrected to '58%'; in the following sentence, "This large contribution is globally evenly distributed... " has been adjusted to "This large contribution is distributed... ", and '28%' and '27%' have been corrected to '38%' and '20%' , respectively; and in the sentence following that, '39%' and '16%' have been corrected to '36%' and '17%' , respectively. In the 'Sensitivity to the wave setup and swash formulation. ' section of the Methods, in equation (5), '0.756' , '0.165' and '0.0368' have been corrected to '0.757' , '0.167' and '0.044 H 0 2 ' , respectively; in the sentence beginning 'Wave contribution to... ' , '55%' has been corrected to '28%'; the following sentence has been corrected to read: "On average, swell contribution to the total wave contribution are of 64% for all three formulations. "; and in the final sentence, '(i) (49% and 51%...)' has been corrected to '(ii) (41% and 59%...)' , '(iii) (36% and 64%...)' has been corrected to '(i) (34% and 66%...)' , and '(ii) (19% and 81%...)' has been corrected to '(iii) (25% and 75%...)'. In the 'Significance of the trends. ' section of the Methods, in the final sentence '(Galápagos Islands, Callao, Clipperton Island and Tumaco)... ' has been corrected to read '(Galápagos Islands and Tumaco)… '. In the online versions of the article, Figs. 2-4 and Supplementary Figs 2-9 have been replaced to correct erroneous results that were the consequence of the coding error. All these figures are available as Supplementary Information to this correction notice.
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towar... more Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.
Traditional calendars document seasonal cycles and the communities’ relationships to their biophy... more Traditional calendars document seasonal cycles and the communities’ relationships to their biophysical environment and are often used by communities, particularly subsistence farmers, to synchronize their livelihood activities with the timing of ecological processes. Because the timing of these ecological processes is not always consistent from year to year, the use of traditional seasonal calendars can help communities to cope with climate variability, particularly when biophysical phenomena become less predictable in relation to the Gregorian calendar, as has been observed in relation to climate change. Although the structure and content of seasonal calendars vary across the Pacific Ocean region, for many indigenous communities, knowledge of seasonal calendars can increase their capacity to cope with climate variability and change. To increase the effectiveness of their products and enhance their relevance to and uptake by the community, several Pacific meteorological services are...
Many communities in the developing world do not utilize weather service broadcasts to the degree ... more Many communities in the developing world do not utilize weather service broadcasts to the degree expected. Reasons for this include inappropriate methods of forecast delivery, time scales and contexts that inhibit application to their needs. In addition, modern scientific forecasts are generally not well understood by the lay person without specialist training. For these, and other, reasons many indigenous communities in the Pacific Islands continue to predict seasonal climatic conditions through personal observations and the monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. phases of moon, behaviour of plants and animals). Built over many generations, traditional climate indicators can provide forecasts that are more accessible, better understood and cover a time and spatial scale more appropriate to the needs of many Pacific Island communities. However, increasing climate variability and land-use change may make traditional indicators less reliable than before, thus increasing the community's exposure to climate-related risks. In this context we argue that public understanding and potential use of forecasts could be greatly improved by verifying and incorporating reliable traditional climate indicators with modern scientific forecasts. We demonstrate how several Pacific Island Meteorological Services have set up a framework to accomplish this. We discuss these efforts and review the potential that traditional knowledge has to provide nature based solutions for increased adaptation to extreme events and climate variability in the region.
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