Papers by Bulat Mukhamediyev
Eurasian Research Journal
This study aims to determine the relationship between inflation and the independence of central b... more This study aims to determine the relationship between inflation and the independence of central banks in post-Soviet, developed, and developing countries. The hypothesis of a negative statistical relationship between the inflation rate and the values of the CWN and GMT central bank independence indices and their constituent subindices for post-Soviet, developed, and developing countries for 2001–2020 was tested. Based on the results of the econometric assessment, the paper finds that high values of the central bank independence indices and their sub-indices help to keep inflation in a certain corridor: if inflation is high, central bank independence reduces it, and if inflation is low, it helps to keep inflation at a low level. The impact of central bank independence on inflation weakens as inflation decreases.
Regional Research of Russia, 2022
The aim is to assess the impact on regional growth of spending on R&D, technological innovation, ... more The aim is to assess the impact on regional growth of spending on R&D, technological innovation, healthcare, education, and socioeconomic conditions, their spillovers between the country regions, and, primarily, from the neighboring country regions. In existing studies, the authors examined other regions' impact on regional growth. However, this approach does not reveal the effect the neighboring country's regions had on the regions' economic growth. Our approach novelty is that we assessed the impact of regional growth factors from the country and the neighboring country separately. The panel data analysis method applied to the endogenous growth model made it possible to assess these effects on regional economic growth and identify regional convergence. Our results are consistent with other studies regarding regional drivers and their spillovers to other regions within each country. Moreover, our results confirmed the technological innovation cost stream hypothesis in the Russian regions from Kazakhstan regions. And they confirmed the hypothesis that R&D costs flow to the Kazakhstan regions from the Russian regions. Thus, the study revealed a synergistic effect from the regional growth in spending on R&D and technological innovation between Russia and Kazakhstan, which is asymmetric. The proposed approach to analyzing interregional mutual influence is also applicable to three or more countries.
Regional Research of Russia, Sep 1, 2022
The productive application of project management in the commercial sector gave impetus to the use... more The productive application of project management in the commercial sector gave impetus to the use of project management tools and performance of public authorities. The article is devoted to the description of the process of implementing project management in the system of public administration of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Experience in the use of project management in governmental bodies of the country has been studied. At the same time, the process of implementing project management in the authorities of the Russian Federation was analyzed to explore the experience of the near abroad. The experience of using the project management of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation in carrying out large national projects such as EXPO-2017 and SOCHI-2014 has been studied.
The Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 2021
The Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 2018
The Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration
The Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 2016
Му ха ме диев Б.М., Хи та ху нов А.А. Экс порт и им порт в мо де ли ди на ми чес ко го сто хас ти... more Му ха ме диев Б.М., Хи та ху нов А.А. Экс порт и им порт в мо де ли ди на ми чес ко го сто хас ти чес ко го об ще го рав но ве сия нес коль ких ст ран В этой статье раз ви вается мо дель сто хас ти чес ко го ди на ми чес ко го об ще го рав но ве сия нес коль ких ст ран. Расс мат ри вают ся пе ре мен ные вы пус ка, про це нт ной став ки, инф ля ции, об мен но го кур са для каж дой ст ра ны, а так же ус ло вия тор гов ли, экс порт, им порт для каж дой па ры ст ран. Мо дель со дер жит урав не ния ди на ми чес ких кри вых IS, но вой кей нсианс кой Фил лип са и урав не ния де неж нокре дит ной по ли ти ки сог лас но чис лу ст ран. Оцен ка мо де ли вы пол не на для эко но мик Ка за х стана, Рос сии и ЕС. Учи ты ва лось асим мет рич ное взаимо дей ст вие боль ших и ма лых ст ран. Ана лиз влия ния внут рен них и внеш них пот ря се ний для мак роэко но ми чес ких по ка за те лей про ве ден для каж дой ст ра ны / ре ги она. Клю че вые сло ва: мо дель, экс порт, им порт, ди на ми чес кое рав но ве сие. Mukhamediyev B.M., Khitakhunov A.A. Export and import in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for several countries In this article, develop a model of dynamic stochastic general equilib rium of multiple countries is developed. The indicators of output, interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, terms of trade for each country, as well as exports, and imports for each pair of countries are considered. The model contains equations of dynamic IS and New Keynesian Phillips curves and equations of monetary policy corresponding to the number of countries. The estimation of the model was implemented for the economies of Ka zakhstan, Russia and the EU. An asymmetrical interaction of large and small economies was taken into account. The analysis of the impact of internal and external shocks on the macroeconomic variables is performed for each country/region.
In this article, develop a model of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium of multiple countries ... more In this article, develop a model of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium of multiple countries is developed. The indicators of output, interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, terms of trade for each country, as well as exports, and imports for each pair of countries are considered. The model contains equations of dynamic IS and New Keynesian Phillips curves and equations of monetary policy corresponding to the number of countries. The estimation of the model was implemented for the economies of Kazakhstan, Russia and the EU. An asymmetrical interaction of large and small economies was taken into account. The analysis of the impact of internal and external shocks on the macroeconomic variables is performed for each country/region.
The country that is rich with natural energy resources such as Kazakhstan has a significant sourc... more The country that is rich with natural energy resources such as Kazakhstan has a significant source of revenues for well-being of its population. On the one hand, full use of all oil revenues for current consumption is associated with risks due to uncertainties in the development of global economy. Also unrestricted inflow of oil money into economy could lead to higher inflation in the country. On the other hand, accumulation of all oil revenues in a special fund to be used in emergency situations in the future is inefficient, as it deprives the country from using those revenues to improve living standards, to implement innovative projects and to improve the prospects for long-term economic development. A small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of open Kazakhstan's economy is built. The model corresponds to the new Keynesian tradition. It is assumed that in the country there are firms producing common goods and a sector that produces oil. Oil revenues are divided into ...
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2021
The positive direct and indirect spillover effects of foreign direct investment on growth are oft... more The positive direct and indirect spillover effects of foreign direct investment on growth are often case specific and not necessarily uniform nor easily predicted. Effects of FDI due to international investment policy changes are often confounded by free trade and customs union agreements that occur simultaneously because trade may be a complement to or substitute for FDI. We review the effects of regional trade agreements on FDI and focus on the new Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). With annual data from 1995 to 2019 for post-Soviet countries, three members, the Russian Federation, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and nine non-members, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, we estimate the EAEU integration effect on country FDI flows, post-2010. We control for other determinants, including infrastructure development, natural resource rents, potentially confounding trade flows, the financial crisis, sanctions against Russia an...
Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics, 1993
Interdependence, which is a consequence of the international division of labor and use of the wor... more Interdependence, which is a consequence of the international division of labor and use of the world’s natural resources, increases at the global level. Macroeconomic indicators of each country are more exposed to shocks arising in the country and in partner countries. In this paper, we propose a model of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) of many countries. For each country, the variables of output, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, terms of trade, as well as exports and imports for each pair of countries are included in the model. In accordance with the number of countries the model contains equations of dynamic IS and New Keynesian Phillips curves and equations of monetary policy. The estimation of the model was implemented for the economies of Kazakhstan, Russia and the EU. An asymmetrical interaction of large and small economies is taken into account. The analysis of the impact of internal and external shocks on the macroeconomic variables is performed for each...
Country Experiences in Economic Development, Management and Entrepreneurship / Proceedings of the 17th Eurasia Business and Economics Society Conference – Springer, 2016. , 2016
Central Asian region includes five Former Soviet Union republics such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Repub... more Central Asian region includes five Former Soviet Union republics such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. All countries follow totally different national development strategies. While Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic are outward looking and the most integrated to world economy, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan keep isolationism policy. Since 1991 many Preferential Trade Agreements have been signed in Central Asia. However, the countries could cooperate in only a few areas. Majority of these agreements led to more conflicts and contradictions, which became the beginning of Central Asian disintegration. All countries of the region in their trade policies have largely followed the path of policy autonomy. Thus, this paper analyzes the impact of integration agreements on the regional trade and economy of Central Asia with the special focus on Kazakhstan. The paper also covers the analysis of possible impact of the newly created Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU...
The Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 2020
The competitiveness of the national economy is one of the most important economic concepts. There... more The competitiveness of the national economy is one of the most important economic concepts. There are many of its definitions and methods of measurement. Since the country's competitiveness is formed by a huge number of factors, a literature review was carried out, as a result of which macroeconomic factors affecting the competitiveness of the economy were selected. The purpose of the article is to assess the degree of influence of selected factors on the global competitiveness of countries. For this, panel data of 60 countries for the period from 2006 to 2018 were collected. Based on this data, a regression analysis of panel data with fixed and random effects was carried out, where the dependent variable is the Global Competitiveness Index, and 22 macroeconomic factors act as independent variables. The Hausman test confirmed the preference for using a panel data model with fixed effects over a panel data model with random effects. As a result, 2 models were constructed that showed the degree of influence of the following factors to change the global competitiveness index: gross capital formation, total factor productivity, average labor productivity, pace of inflation rate, share of the current account balance in GDP, share of the employed population in the total population of the country, oil prices, growth rate of oil prices.
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2019
The influence of various factors on the competitiveness of national economies is investigated in ... more The influence of various factors on the competitiveness of national economies is investigated in many articles, however, there is little research on the impact of resource prices on it. This article aims to examine the effect of crude oil prices on the global competitiveness of both producing countries and countries consuming oil. Based on annual data from 60 countries for 2006-2017, a regression analysis of panel data with fixed effects shows that exceeding the annual growth rate of oil prices over gross domestic product growth rates reduces the growth rate of the global competitiveness index (GCI), and it is twice strong for oil exporting countries than for countries non-oil exporters. And the growth of average labor productivity, total factor productivity, the share of employed in the total population, High-technology exports, and the Gross capital formation raises the country's GCI. Due to the rise in world oil prices, exporting countries are moving downward in the global competitiveness ranking more than non-oil exporters.
Economy of Region, 2017
The paper examines the potential determinants of foreign direct investment inflows into the regio... more The paper examines the potential determinants of foreign direct investment inflows into the region of Eurasian Economic Union, as well as incentives for investment into other neighboring countries. In the first model, the authors test a hypothesis on country specific foreign direct investment determinants for the Eurasian Economic Union region. The results of fixed effects estimation show that gross domestic product, infrastructure development and secondary education enrollment have a positive statistically significant effect on the foreign direct investment inflows into the region. Conversely, the impact of Customs Union on foreign direct investment appeared to be negative. Furthermore, in the second model of the natural experiment, the authors empirically test the hypothesis on Customs Union's effect on foreign direct investment while controlling for both country and time effects. The model includes evaluating the impact of the policy change on foreign investment inflows. The natural experiment outcome also points to the negative effect of Eurasian economic integration on foreign direct investment inflows. Although the countries of Eurasian Economic Union have relatively business friendly regulations, such procedures as enforcing contracts, resolving insolvencies and dealing with construction permits are time-consuming. For attracting foreign investment, it is advisable to facilitate such procedures and make the process of setting up a new business less onerous. The research can be used as an outline for further examining of Eurasian economic integration and apart from that, the study results can be applied for practical purposes of policy elaboration aimed at stimulating foreign direct investment into the Eurasian Economic Union.
Journal of International Studies, 2020
This paper specifies and estimates hybrid monetary policy reaction functions in five countries of... more This paper specifies and estimates hybrid monetary policy reaction functions in five countries of the Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania) and four post-Soviet countries (Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine) during the transition period. The problem of choosing an effective monetary policy is essential and is of significant interest in developing economies. The assessed reactions made it possible to compare monetary policy goals in these countries and their changes due to the recent global financial and economic crisis. The calculations carried out by the generalized method of moments based on the quarterly data for 1998-2018 showed that in all the countries under consideration, price containment was the primary goal of monetary policy. Along with it, monetary authorities adhered to their alternative goals. Moreover, due to the financial and economic crisis, countries mainly began to less support economic growth and the accumulation of gold and foreign exchange reserves while increasing attention to stabilizing the exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate.
Fluctuations of oil prices have impact not only on oil-importing countries, but also on oilproduc... more Fluctuations of oil prices have impact not only on oil-importing countries, but also on oilproducing countries. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the small open economy of Kazakhstan is estimated using calibration and Bayesian simulation approaches. The model is based on the new Keynesian framework with assumptions on preferences and technology with the Calvo price-setting structure. There are two sectors in the economy, the first sector produces final goods, and the second produces oil. Results show that after a rise of oil price or demand for oil abroad, for both of them there are improvements in final goods production, net exports, interest rate, domestic inflation, terms of trade, consumption, and real exchange rate increase; while output and employment in sector of final goods decrease. However, we can observe opposite changes for oil production, total employment, and real wage. They are positive in case of oil demand shock and negative in case of oil pr...
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Papers by Bulat Mukhamediyev