We consider the problem of allocating multiple heterogeneous resources geographically and over ti... more We consider the problem of allocating multiple heterogeneous resources geographically and over time to meet demands that require some subset of the available resource types simultaneously at a specified time, location, and duration. The objective is to maximize the total reward accrued from meeting (a subset of) demands. We model this problem as an integer program, show that it is NP-hard, and analyze the complexity of various special cases. We introduce approximation algorithms and an extension to our problem that considers travel costs. Finally, we test the performance of the integer programming model in an extensive computational study.
Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effec... more Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effectively deliver education during the fall semester of 2020, amid the COVID19 pandemic. The objective of this study is to evaluate the public health impact of reopening schools on the spread of COVID19. An agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the number of infections and deaths under multiple school reopening dates and scenarios, including different cohorts receiving in-person instruction on alternating days, only younger children returning to in-person instruction, regular schedule (all students receiving in-person instruction), and school closure (all students receiving online instruction). The study period was February 18th-November 24th, 2020 and the state of Georgia was used as a case study. Across all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 17 to 22 thousand during the study period, and on the peak day, the number of new infec...
Objectives. To evaluate the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection sp... more Objectives. To evaluate the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from community/workplace interactions). Methods. An agent-based simulation model to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020. Results. Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 3.43, 19.8, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 121K-268K, 522K-567K, 5,377K-5,380K, respectively. Conclusions. Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of inf...
As the spread of COVID19 in the US continues to grow, local and state officials face difficult de... more As the spread of COVID19 in the US continues to grow, local and state officials face difficult decisions about when and how to transition to a “new normal.” The goal of this study is to project the number of COVID19 infections and resulting severe outcomes, and the need for hospital capacity under social distancing, particularly, shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine for the State of Georgia. We developed an agent-based simulation model to project the infection spread. The model utilizes COVID19-specific parameters and data from Georgia on population interactions and demographics. The simulation study covered a seven and a half-month period, testing different social distancing scenarios, including baselines (no-intervention or school closure only) and combinations of shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine with different timelines and compliance levels. The following outcomes are compared at the state and community levels: the number and percentage of cumulative and daily new ...
The number, magnitude, complexity, and impact of natural disasters has been steadily increasing i... more The number, magnitude, complexity, and impact of natural disasters has been steadily increasing in various parts of the world. When preparing for, responding to, and recovering from a disaster, multiple organizations make decisions and take actions considering the needs, available resources, and priorities of the affected communities, emergency supply chains, and infrastructures. Most of the prior research focuses on decision-making for independent systems (e.g., single critical infrastructure networks or distinct relief resources). An emerging research area extends the focus to interdependent systems (i.e., multiple dependent networks or resources). In this review, we survey the literature on modeling approaches for disaster management problems on independent systems, discuss some recent work on problems involving demand, resource, and/or network interdependencies, and offer future research directions to add to this growing research area.
Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems, 2017
In this paper, we present a system of five ordinary differential equations which consider populat... more In this paper, we present a system of five ordinary differential equations which consider population dynamics among cancer stem cells, tumor cells, and healthy cells. Additionally, we consider the effects of excess estrogen and the body’s natural immune response on the aforementioned cell populations. Employing a variety of analytical methods, we study the global dynamics of the full system, along with various submodels. We find sufficient conditions on parameter values to ensure cancer persistence in the absence of immune cells, and cancer eradication when an immune response is included. We conclude with a discussion on the biological implications of the resulting global dynamics.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United State... more Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of ...
Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effec... more Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effectively deliver education during the fall semester of 2020, amid the COVID19 pandemic. The objective of this study is to evaluate the public health impact of reopening schools on the spread of COVID19. An agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the number of infections and deaths under multiple school reopening dates and scenarios, including different cohorts receiving in-person instruction on alternating days, only younger children returning to inperson instruction, regular schedule (all students receiving in-person instruction), and school closure (all students receiving online instruction). The study period was February 18th-November 24th, 2020 and the state of Georgia was used as a case study. Across all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 17 to 22 thousand during the study period, and on the peak day, the number of new infect...
We consider the problem of allocating multiple heterogeneous resources geographically and over ti... more We consider the problem of allocating multiple heterogeneous resources geographically and over time to meet demands that require some subset of the available resource types simultaneously at a specified time, location, and duration. The objective is to maximize the total reward accrued from meeting (a subset of) demands. We model this problem as an integer program, show that it is NP-hard, and analyze the complexity of various special cases. We introduce approximation algorithms and an extension to our problem that considers travel costs. Finally, we test the performance of the integer programming model in an extensive computational study.
Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effec... more Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effectively deliver education during the fall semester of 2020, amid the COVID19 pandemic. The objective of this study is to evaluate the public health impact of reopening schools on the spread of COVID19. An agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the number of infections and deaths under multiple school reopening dates and scenarios, including different cohorts receiving in-person instruction on alternating days, only younger children returning to in-person instruction, regular schedule (all students receiving in-person instruction), and school closure (all students receiving online instruction). The study period was February 18th-November 24th, 2020 and the state of Georgia was used as a case study. Across all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 17 to 22 thousand during the study period, and on the peak day, the number of new infec...
Objectives. To evaluate the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection sp... more Objectives. To evaluate the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from community/workplace interactions). Methods. An agent-based simulation model to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020. Results. Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 3.43, 19.8, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 121K-268K, 522K-567K, 5,377K-5,380K, respectively. Conclusions. Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of inf...
As the spread of COVID19 in the US continues to grow, local and state officials face difficult de... more As the spread of COVID19 in the US continues to grow, local and state officials face difficult decisions about when and how to transition to a “new normal.” The goal of this study is to project the number of COVID19 infections and resulting severe outcomes, and the need for hospital capacity under social distancing, particularly, shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine for the State of Georgia. We developed an agent-based simulation model to project the infection spread. The model utilizes COVID19-specific parameters and data from Georgia on population interactions and demographics. The simulation study covered a seven and a half-month period, testing different social distancing scenarios, including baselines (no-intervention or school closure only) and combinations of shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine with different timelines and compliance levels. The following outcomes are compared at the state and community levels: the number and percentage of cumulative and daily new ...
The number, magnitude, complexity, and impact of natural disasters has been steadily increasing i... more The number, magnitude, complexity, and impact of natural disasters has been steadily increasing in various parts of the world. When preparing for, responding to, and recovering from a disaster, multiple organizations make decisions and take actions considering the needs, available resources, and priorities of the affected communities, emergency supply chains, and infrastructures. Most of the prior research focuses on decision-making for independent systems (e.g., single critical infrastructure networks or distinct relief resources). An emerging research area extends the focus to interdependent systems (i.e., multiple dependent networks or resources). In this review, we survey the literature on modeling approaches for disaster management problems on independent systems, discuss some recent work on problems involving demand, resource, and/or network interdependencies, and offer future research directions to add to this growing research area.
Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems, 2017
In this paper, we present a system of five ordinary differential equations which consider populat... more In this paper, we present a system of five ordinary differential equations which consider population dynamics among cancer stem cells, tumor cells, and healthy cells. Additionally, we consider the effects of excess estrogen and the body’s natural immune response on the aforementioned cell populations. Employing a variety of analytical methods, we study the global dynamics of the full system, along with various submodels. We find sufficient conditions on parameter values to ensure cancer persistence in the absence of immune cells, and cancer eradication when an immune response is included. We conclude with a discussion on the biological implications of the resulting global dynamics.
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United State... more Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of ...
Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effec... more Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effectively deliver education during the fall semester of 2020, amid the COVID19 pandemic. The objective of this study is to evaluate the public health impact of reopening schools on the spread of COVID19. An agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the number of infections and deaths under multiple school reopening dates and scenarios, including different cohorts receiving in-person instruction on alternating days, only younger children returning to inperson instruction, regular schedule (all students receiving in-person instruction), and school closure (all students receiving online instruction). The study period was February 18th-November 24th, 2020 and the state of Georgia was used as a case study. Across all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 17 to 22 thousand during the study period, and on the peak day, the number of new infect...
Uploads
Papers by Arden Baxter