Barry Hughes

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Developer of the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and founding Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures.

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Papers by Barry Hughes

Patterns of Potential Human Progress

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Patterns of Potential Human Progress

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Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Climatic Change, 2013

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenari... more Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socioeconomic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socioeconomic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative Climatic Change

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Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence

Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We ... more Future economic growth will affect societal well-being and the environment, but is uncertain. We describe a multidecadal pattern of GDP per capita growth rising, then declining, as regions become richer. A fitted differential-equation model (DEM) and an integrated assessment model (International Futures, IFs) accounting for this pattern both predict 21st-century economic outlooks with slow growth and income convergence compared to the widely used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)—similar to SSP4 (‘Inequality’). For World Bank income groups, the DEM could have produced, from 1980, consistent projections of 2100 GDP per capita, and more accurate predictions of 2010s growth rates than the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s short-term forecasts. DEM and IMF forecasts were positively biased for the low-income group. SSP4 might therefore represent a best-case—not worst-case—scenario for 21st-century growth and income convergence. IFs projects high poverty and population growth, and mo...

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The Future of Artificial Intelligence

International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, 2022

We presen t a global Artificial Intelligence (AI) con ceptual framew ork, operationalization, and... more We presen t a global Artificial Intelligence (AI) con ceptual framew ork, operationalization, and forecast to the year 2100. A series of AI indices were developed within the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment platform, a quantitative macro-level system that produces dynamic forecasts for 186 countries. IFs models extensively interconnected aspects of global human development, including: agriculture, economics, demographics, energy, infrastructure, environment, water, governance, health, education, finance, technology, and international politics. We conceptualize AI in three categories: narrow AI, general artificial intelligence (AGI), and superintelligence. Today's AI consists of six basic and narrow AI technologies: computer vision, machine learning, natural language processing, the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and reasoning. As an index score for all approaches 10, we forecast AGI technology to become available, representing it with a machine IQ index score, roughly analogous to human IQ scores. The emergence of AGI is constrained by the rate of improvement in and development of machine reasoning and associated technologies. When machine IQ scores approach superhuman levels, we forecast the emergence of superintelligent AI. The current path forecast estimates that AGI could appear between 2040 and 2050. Superintelligent AI is forecast to be developed close to the end of the current century. We frame the current path with faster and slower scenarios of development and facilitate analysis of alternative scenarios. Future work can assess the complex impacts of AI development on human society, including economic productivity, labor, international trade, and energy systems.

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Foundational Research Report: Pursuing the Sustainable Development Goals in a World Reshaped by COVID-19

MedRN: Interdisciplinary Coronavirus & Infectious Disease Related Research (Topic), 2020

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development centers around 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs... more The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development centers around 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the global community with 169 targets towards multidimensional development. Our progress is inadequate, and the COVID-19 has further slowed the attainment of the SDGs. This report addresses the need to track our progress, the effects of the pandemic on this progress, and the ways in which we can accelerate our progress through and beyond 2030. While the SDGs have five Ps - People, Planet, Prosperity, Peace and Partnership, we focus on People, and therefore, the first six goals. Using the International Futures forecasting model and scenario analysis, we present paths that countries and the world might follow. The first scenario is No COVID, based on the pre-COVID development path. The second is COVID and third is High Damage which assumes greater GDP losses. The final scenario is SDG Push which assumes a more ambitious pursuit of the SDGs. First, we find that even in the No COVID wo...

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Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the “High-Hanging” Fruit by 2030

World Bank policy research working paper, Aug 1, 2014

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Poverty Eradication in Fragile Places: Prospects for Harvesting the Highest Hanging Fruit by 2030

Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, Jul 25, 2016

This paper explores the range of likely and potential progress on poverty eradication in fragile ... more This paper explores the range of likely and potential progress on poverty eradication in fragile states to 2030. Using the International Futures model and recently released 2011 International Comparison Program data, this paper calculates current (2015) poverty for a US$1.90 poverty line, and subsequently runs three scenarios. The estimates suggest that there are 485 million poor in fragile states in 2015, a 33.5 per cent poverty rate. This paper's Base Case scenario results in a forecasted 22.8 per cent poverty rate in fragile states by 2030. The most optimistic scenario yields a 13.1 per cent poverty rate for this group of countries (257 million). An optimistic scenario reflecting political constraints in fragile states yields a 19.1 per cent poverty rate (376 million). Even under the most optimistic circumstances, fragile states will almost certainly be home to hundreds of millions of poor in 2030, suggesting that the world must do things dramatically differently if we are to reach the high hanging fruit and truly 'leave no one behind' in the next fifteen years of development.

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Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching The

Social Science Research Network, Aug 1, 2014

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Beyond Attributable Burden: Estimating the Avoidable Burden of Disease Associated with Household Air Pollution

PLOS ONE, 2016

Background The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies have transformed global understanding of he... more Background The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies have transformed global understanding of health risks by producing comprehensive estimates of attributable disease burden, or the current disease that would be eliminated if a risk factor did not exist. Yet many have noted the greater policy significance of avoidable burden, or the future disease that could actually be eliminated if a risk factor were eliminated today. Avoidable risk may be considerably lower than attributable risk if baseline levels of exposure or disease are declining, or if a risk factor carries lagged effects on disease. As global efforts to deliver clean cookstoves accelerate, a temporal estimation of avoidable risk due to household air pollution (HAP) becomes increasingly important, particularly in light of the rapid uptake of modern stoves and ongoing epidemiologic transitions in regions like South and Southeast Asia. Methods and Findings We estimate the avoidable burden associated with HAP using International Futures (IFs), an integrated forecasting system that has been used to model future global disease burdens and risk factors. Building on GBD and other estimates, we integrated a detailed HAP exposure estimation and exposure-response model into IFs. We then conducted a counterfactual experiment in which HAP exposure is reduced to theoretical minimum levels in 2015. We evaluated avoidable mortality and DALY reductions for the years 2015 to 2024 relative to a Base Case scenario in which only endogenous changes occurred. We present results by cause and region, looking at impacts on acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) and four noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). We found that just 2.6% of global DALYs would be averted between 2015 and 2024, compared to 4.5% of global DALYs attributed to HAP in the 2010 GBD study, due in large part to the endogenous tendency towards declining traditional stove usage in the IFs base case forecast. The extent of diminished impact was comparable for ALRI and affected NCDs, though for different reasons. ALRI impacts diminish due to the declining burden of ALRI in the base case forecast, particularly apparent

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Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

Global Environment Outlook – GEO-6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People, May 31, 2019

Oceans are expected to continue to be polluted and overexploited (established, but incomplete). N... more Oceans are expected to continue to be polluted and overexploited (established, but incomplete). Nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) flows from freshwater into world oceans exceed sustainable levels and as a result the risks of dead zones and toxic algae blooms in coastal areas are projected to increase. This is largely related to increased fertilizer use in agricultural production and developments in wastewater treatment that are lagging behind improvements in access to sanitation. As a result of an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2), oceans are expected to further acidify, negatively affecting marine organisms' ability to create shells and skeletons or even resulting in their dissolution. Acidification is expected to increase most rapidly in polar regions. Finally, under current fishing strategies, the projected increase in demand for fish is expected to reduce the proportion of fish stocks that remain at biologically sustainable levels. {21.3.5} Preventable environmental health risks are projected to remain prominent in 2030, with related negative impacts on child mortality (established, but incomplete). Nearly one-quarter of all deaths globally in 2012 can be attributed to environmental factors, with a greater portion occurring in vulnerable populations (children and the elderly) and in developing countries. Prominent environmental risk factorsi.e. exposure to ambient air pollution, and not having access to clean water, adequate sanitation or modern energy servicestogether with global hunger are expected to improve towards 2030, but not fast enough to achieve related targets in all countries. Related global child mortality is projected to decline, but not enough to achieve the SDG targets in many developing countries. Especially in sub-Saharan Africa, child mortality rates remain high, with a continued, although smaller, share related to preventable environmental risk factors. {21.3.6}

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Pathways Toward Sustainable Development

Global Environment Outlook – GEO-6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People, 2019

A range of measures identified as necessary to achieve the selected targets (see Chapter 20) are ... more A range of measures identified as necessary to achieve the selected targets (see Chapter 20) are listed in Figure 22 .2. These measures are linked to the five clusters of closely related These scenarios are based on a different focus along the dimensions global versus local interventions and production-versus consumption-side orientation. The scenarios are used in this chapter to illustrate that there are different strategies in moving towards sustainable development.

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Analysis of Long-Term Global Social Change

This paper describes work underway in creating and using an integrated model for the analysis of ... more This paper describes work underway in creating and using an integrated model for the analysis of long-term, global social development and performance. The paper describes a specific effort within the larger modelling project, namely the creation and use of universal social accounting matrices (SAMs) for dynamic analysis of social performance in countries around the world. The universal social accounting matrices (SAMs) have been developed within an existing integrated global model named International Futures (IFs) that contains: a cohortcomponent representation of demographic systems; a multi-sector, general equilibriumseeking representation of economies; a module of formal education at primary, secondary, and tertiary levels; and other subsystems. The IFs system also facilitates the development and comparison of multiple scenarios for underlying variables and subsystems as disparate as the rate of change in systemic multifactor productivity, the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and the attention that societies give to different levels of education. The net for data sources and methods for generating the matrices and creating forecasts for a wide range of countries was cast wide, but a few sources were of particular importance. These include the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), the World Bank (especially its World Development Indicators), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Specific issues that such a modelling system can help investigate include the unfolding pension crises of many developed countries and the effort to strengthen basic social safety nets or social protection systems throughout the developing world. The modelling system is also being structured so as to provide insights into changing income distributions within and across countries.

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Universal Social Accounting Matrices ( SAMs ) : Analysis of Global Social Support for Human Development

This paper describes work underway in creating and using an integrated model for the analysis of ... more This paper describes work underway in creating and using an integrated model for the analysis of long-term, global social support for human development. The paper describes a specific effort within the larger project, namely the creation and use of universal social accounting matrices (SAMs). Protection and enhancement of the human condition is perhaps the ultimate goal of all socio-political activity. The level of human development may therefore be the ultimate measure of success or failure of such activity. The definition and measurement of human development is not without controversy. The United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index combines life expectancy, income, and educational level. The Millennium Development Goals focus particular attention on income and educational levels in recognition that increased life expectancy will normally follow from achievements in those domains. Social efforts to enhance human development engender still more controversy than measurement does. Dimensions of disagreement include the appropriate targets of the social efforts and the character of activities that provide the greatest leverage. Sometimes the focus is on the poorest of the poor, and at other times on all humans. At times the emphasis is on providing basic social safety nets and at other times the provision of human capabilities for self help. Regardless of the approach to human development, analysis clearly requires attention to multiple human systems, including demographics, markets for goods and services, and patterns of financial flows across countries and categories of actors within them. It requires more as well, including attention to health and educational systems, and to the character and capacity of governance systems.

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ICT/Cyber benefits and costs: Reconciling competing perspectives on the current and future balance

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017

Information and communications technology (ICT)/cyber technologies become ever-more embedded in o... more Information and communications technology (ICT)/cyber technologies become ever-more embedded in our economies and societies, bringing both benefits and risk-related costs. The balance between those benefits and costs, over time and across countries, remains poorly understood. This gives rise to conflicting narratives about the future of ICT: either (1) continued rapid benefit growth with new waves of ICT technology; or (2) increasing cyber-attack costs will come to swamp benefits. We explore how the balance between benefits and costs might change at the global, country-grouping, and country-level out to 2030. Because the existing literature provides little foundation for integrated analysis, we did extensive conceptual research and data gathering from diverse sources. The benefits include the growth of the ICT sector itself, its contribution to broader productivity as a general purpose technology, and its benefits for consumers as value for price rises very significantly. The costs include security spending, the impact of adverse cyber events, and opportunity foregone if the technology is underutilized. We extended International Futures (IFs), an existing multi-issue, multi-country, long-term forecasting system with formulations driving ICT/cyber advance and impact. In Base Case analysis we found that, while annual costs related to cyber-attacks and cyber-security spending do come to outweigh the annual incremental economic benefits from ICT use in high-income countries, over time the compounding nature of the benefits versus the more additive nature of the costs means that the cumulative benefits will outstrip the cumulative costs by tens of trillions of dollars over even medium-term forecast horizons. For lower-income and middle-income countries both annual and cumulative analyses suggest that benefits will continue to outweigh costs. On a global basis the cumulative net benefits could exceed $100 trillion through 2030. Four scenarios with significantly different assumptions about technological development and the unfolding of adverse events changed the total values of benefits and risk-related costs, but not the overall conclusion.

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Reasonable goals for reducing poverty in Africa

The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component in the post-2015 Millennium Development Goa... more The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component in the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals process and the African Union's Agenda 2063. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore this goal and finds that many African states are unlikely to make this target by 2030, even when modelling a package of aggressive poverty reduction interventions. In addition to country-level targets the authors also argue in favour of a goal that would see Africa as a whole reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030, and below 4% by 2045.

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Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity

PLOS ONE, 2021

Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics models (MSDs) of globa... more Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics models (MSDs) of global and national challenges and opportunities, including pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requires projections of economic growth. In turn, the pursuit of multiple interacting goals affects economic productivity and growth, generating complex feedback loops among actions and objectives. Yet, most analysis uses either exogenous projections of productivity and growth or specifications endogenously enriched with a very small set of drivers. Extending endogenous treatment of productivity to represent two-way interactions with a significant set of goal-related variables can considerably enhance analysis. Among such variables incorporated in this project are aspects of human development (e.g., education, health, poverty reduction), socio-political change (e.g., governance capacity and quality), and infrastructure (e.g. water and sanitation and modern energy access), all in condit...

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Disarmament and development

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Sustainable futures: policies for global development

Futures, 2005

Global sustainable development is the overarching challenge for social and economic policy today.... more Global sustainable development is the overarching challenge for social and economic policy today. The paper elaborates the concept of sustainable development, identifies some of the levers and policies that might help attain it, describes a modeling system used for analysis, and presents the results of evaluating the impacts of policies and an integrated scenario built upon them. Particular attention is given to measures related to research, technology development and the wider use of networking technologies, and to the hypothesis that investments in these areas offer a 'triple-win' opportunity for growth, greater equity and resource-efficiency. We show that the combination of policy initiatives in these areas can offer a valuable alternative and/or complement to constraints on businesses and lifestyles that are commonly proposed for sustainable development.

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Choices in the face of uncertainty: the international futures (IFs) model

Futures, 2001

The International Futures (IFs) modeling project has roots in both the world modeling projects of... more The International Futures (IFs) modeling project has roots in both the world modeling projects of the 1970s (including the early Club of Rome models) and the GLOBUS modeling project of the 1980s. It has, however, added extensive capabilities for helping students and analysts think about choices in the face of uncertainty. The third edition of the International futures book and computer simulation have extended the analysis horizon and enhanced analysis potential, with particular focus in two areas: (1) the possible transition towards sustainability in the twenty-first century and (2) sociopolitical change within countries and in the global system. IFs is evolving from a global model to a 'global modeling system' that allows analysis of data and analytical relationships across a country-level database. This article reviews the evolution of IFs and the current model. It concludes by discussing challenging issues in the contemporary world that may be explored by students of the future using the IFs model.

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Patterns of Potential Human Progress

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Patterns of Potential Human Progress

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Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Climatic Change, 2013

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Multidecadal dynamics project slow 21st-century economic growth and income convergence

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The Future of Artificial Intelligence

International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, 2022

Download

Foundational Research Report: Pursuing the Sustainable Development Goals in a World Reshaped by COVID-19

MedRN: Interdisciplinary Coronavirus & Infectious Disease Related Research (Topic), 2020

Download

Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the “High-Hanging” Fruit by 2030

World Bank policy research working paper, Aug 1, 2014

Download

Poverty Eradication in Fragile Places: Prospects for Harvesting the Highest Hanging Fruit by 2030

Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, Jul 25, 2016

Download

Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching The

Social Science Research Network, Aug 1, 2014

Download

Beyond Attributable Burden: Estimating the Avoidable Burden of Disease Associated with Household Air Pollution

PLOS ONE, 2016

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Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

Global Environment Outlook – GEO-6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People, May 31, 2019

Download

Pathways Toward Sustainable Development

Global Environment Outlook – GEO-6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People, 2019

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Analysis of Long-Term Global Social Change

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Universal Social Accounting Matrices ( SAMs ) : Analysis of Global Social Support for Human Development

This paper describes work underway in creating and using an integrated model for the analysis of ... more This paper describes work underway in creating and using an integrated model for the analysis of long-term, global social support for human development. The paper describes a specific effort within the larger project, namely the creation and use of universal social accounting matrices (SAMs). Protection and enhancement of the human condition is perhaps the ultimate goal of all socio-political activity. The level of human development may therefore be the ultimate measure of success or failure of such activity. The definition and measurement of human development is not without controversy. The United Nations Development Program's Human Development Index combines life expectancy, income, and educational level. The Millennium Development Goals focus particular attention on income and educational levels in recognition that increased life expectancy will normally follow from achievements in those domains. Social efforts to enhance human development engender still more controversy than measurement does. Dimensions of disagreement include the appropriate targets of the social efforts and the character of activities that provide the greatest leverage. Sometimes the focus is on the poorest of the poor, and at other times on all humans. At times the emphasis is on providing basic social safety nets and at other times the provision of human capabilities for self help. Regardless of the approach to human development, analysis clearly requires attention to multiple human systems, including demographics, markets for goods and services, and patterns of financial flows across countries and categories of actors within them. It requires more as well, including attention to health and educational systems, and to the character and capacity of governance systems.

Download

ICT/Cyber benefits and costs: Reconciling competing perspectives on the current and future balance

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017

Download

Reasonable goals for reducing poverty in Africa

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Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity

PLOS ONE, 2021

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Disarmament and development

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Sustainable futures: policies for global development