cogito ergo sum A historian by training, a civil servant by profession, an economist more by accident , closet poet, philatelist and runner, and an irrepressible writer by inclination.
The Delhi G20 summit accentuated India’s growing geopolitical clout, but also diminished its soft... more The Delhi G20 summit accentuated India’s growing geopolitical clout, but also diminished its soft power. With the passage of time the paragraphs for which the Delhi Summit is most likely to be remembered are paragraphs 7-14 on the War in Ukraine, paragraph 76 that admitted the African Union as a permanent member of the G20, and the intriguing paragraph 78 on freedom of religion, expression and association.
It was relatively easy for global powers with differing interests to agree on economic matters. N... more It was relatively easy for global powers with differing interests to agree on economic matters. Now, getting a leaders’ statement in place will require a lot more work. The paper traces the origins of multiculturalism and the G 20's role within it in the run up to the 18th G 20 summit in New Delhi in september 2023
It would be wrong to use present-day norms to label certain historical events as crimes. If we mu... more It would be wrong to use present-day norms to label certain historical events as crimes. If we must judge the past, it should be in relation to its time, rather than our present.
India cannot afford lost decades, like the one it is presently experiencing with trend growth fal... more India cannot afford lost decades, like the one it is presently experiencing with trend growth falling sharply. This will not only push it further behind China, but it might also age before it grows rich. This would scuttle its geopolitical ambitions and lock it into a middle-income trap. Representative image. Photo: PTI/Files Can India Become a Developed Economy and Catch Up with China? ... https://thewire.in/economy/can-india-become-a-developed-economy- ...
India cannot afford lost decades, like the one it is presently experiencing with trend growth fal... more India cannot afford lost decades, like the one it is presently experiencing with trend growth falling sharply. This will not only push it further behind China, but it might also age before it grows rich. This would scuttle its geopolitical ambitions and lock it into a middle-income trap. Representative image. Photo: PTI/Files Can India Become a Developed Economy and Catch Up with China? ... https://thewire.in/economy/can-india-become-a-developed-economy- ...
By virtue of its status as a major developing country, the Indian G 20 Chair is well positioned ... more By virtue of its status as a major developing country, the Indian G 20 Chair is well positioned to bring the North and South closer on the issue of climate change and go beyond the grand bargains of the COP 2009 Copenhagen that set up the Green Climate Fund, and Paris Accords. The agenda advanced by New Delhi must incorporate measures to balance concerns of reducing carbon emissions with resultant development lags and job losses that smaller nations fear. The Indian Chair could press for higher environment funding and technology transfers by developed nations in return for more concrete emission targets, both short-term and long-term, with more ambitious timelines, in the light of the discouraging assessment of the UNEP.
Tracking and Tackling Covid -19: Global Perspectives ed. Ali Mehdi, 2022
As one of the most powerful intergovernmental forums of the 21st century, the G20 or the Group of... more As one of the most powerful intergovernmental forums of the 21st century, the G20 or the Group of Twenty, comprising developing and developed nations from across the globe, is saddled with responsibilities of steering the world to a more economically, fiscally, environmentally and politically sustainable future. Today, as the Covid-19 crisis looms large, which is perhaps the biggest global crisis of this scale after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC)-to which, the G20 forum owes its meteoric rise-the G20's role in managing it and chartering a sustainable exit is of immense significance. This chapter discusses the group's evolution since its inception and the roles played by the Saudi Arabian and Italian presidencies (in 2020 and 2021, respectively) in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic. It also recommends action points for the Indonesian (2022) and Indian (2023) presidencies, underlining particular aspects related to global health, climate change, trade and investment, and governance of the new multilateral economic order. It draws attention to some other pressing and emerging economic issues that the G20 Presidencies could bring to the table. Some of the criticisms hurled at the group have been presented towards the end alongside some mitigation measures to counteract them as well as to expand the G20's role in policymaking, crisis management and bridging the North-South divide. The G20 and its Agenda The G20, like the old Concert of Europe and the G7, on which it is structurally patterned, is a small, compact group, comprising
The recently published Global Hunger Index has lowered India’s global rank from 101 out of 116 ... more The recently published Global Hunger Index has lowered India’s global rank from 101 out of 116 countries in 2021 to 107 out of 121 in 2022. This places India below all South Asian countries other than Afghanistan, and also below several poor African countries such as Rwanda, Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Republic of Congo. This led to a political firestorm on social media. The article considers three separate ways to view the Global Hunger Index on its merits, namely at the level of theory, at the level of methodology, and at the level of Indian peculiarities.
G 20 @ 2023. India's Presidency. Two Essays (ICWA), 2022
What exactly is the G 20? How and why did it come into being? How does it work? Why is there as m... more What exactly is the G 20? How and why did it come into being? How does it work? Why is there as much hype over G 20 Summits as those of the G 7, and what is the relationship between these two high profile groupings? What has been India’s own contributions to the functioning of the G 20 so far? What does hosting a G 20 Summit entail? What makes for a successful Summit? What might be the issues that could dominate the Indian Presidency and the New Delhi Declaration’? These are the questions that this paper attempts to discuss.
The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Insti... more The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad.
Investment and consumption must spurt for the Indian economy’s base effect not to spell decelerat... more Investment and consumption must spurt for the Indian economy’s base effect not to spell deceleration after two years of fast expansion
Most of the major decisions at the 16th G20 Summit in Rome were anticipated in the G-7 meeting he... more Most of the major decisions at the 16th G20 Summit in Rome were anticipated in the G-7 meeting held four months earlier in the UK’s Cornwall.A return of major decisions to a club of seven would not augur well for international cooperation
The paper gives a synoptic view of the evolution of macroeconomic policies from the time of the G... more The paper gives a synoptic view of the evolution of macroeconomic policies from the time of the Great Depression and the current thinking in stabilizing business cycles and financial markets, and makes an overview of the policy response to the recent Global Financial Crisis. It analyses the adjustments made in the global economy in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, as also the adjustments in financial markets. The concluding section discusses the current prospects of the global economy, and the risks that possibly lie ahead.
The recent global financial crisis initiated the most far-reaching and comprehensive reform of fi... more The recent global financial crisis initiated the most far-reaching and comprehensive reform of financial regulation in advanced economies since the days of the Great Depression. The international initiative under the aegis of the G20 was supplemented by major national level initiatives in major jurisdictions. The paper discusses the progress of what it considers to be the core reforms of Basel III, shadow banking, ring-fencing and financial institutions deemed too big to fail. It goes on to discuss the impact and relevance of these reforms in emerging markets who, while willing participants in the reform process, have so far not been actively engaged in the global debate, perhaps since their financial systems are fundamentally different.
Over the last few decades, a sense of complacency had set in amongst economists and policymakers ... more Over the last few decades, a sense of complacency had set in amongst economists and policymakers as they came to consider macroeconomic policies — fi scal initially, but increasingly monetary — as the holy grail that could smoothen business cycles and sustain high growth. This confi dence has been badly shaken in the aftermath of what is arguably the most devastating fi nancial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Unconventional monetary policies,
The 2008 global financial and economic crisis, which continues to fester, elicited a strong, glob... more The 2008 global financial and economic crisis, which continues to fester, elicited a strong, globally coordinated policy response orchestrated by G20 Leaders. The near-term impact was spectacular, but after about five years the global economy and financial system are still in a shambles in most advanced economies. A new and dangerous fault line has opened up in the Euro Zone. This has generated an animated debate over whether the policy response was entirely appropriate, whether the protracted use of essentially short-term policy instruments has negative medium- to long-term consequences, and what should be the appropriate policy stance going forward. Concerns over public debt, growth and inflation down the road have divided economists and policymakers into two major camps. Those who give precedence to growth favour continuing with macroeconomic stimulus; those that give precedence to the damaging impact of sustained public deficits and debt favour austerity. If monetary policy is i...
The staining of cloths includes not only the achromatic staining but also the chromatic one. The ... more The staining of cloths includes not only the achromatic staining but also the chromatic one. The evaluation of each staining has been done with the surface reflectance which represents the degree of whiteness. Usually, Rinin, measured at wavelength showing the maximum absorption of visible monochromatic light, or R550 at 550 nm wavelength is used as the surface reflectance. Alternatively Y value is used instead of the surface reflectance. But the investigations on the correspondence of the surface reflectance to visual sensation have not yet been carried out. In this paper, the correspondence mentioned above was investigated. The results obtained were as follows: 1) When we evaluated the degree of staining, the surface reflectance measured at a wavelength showing the maximum absorption of visible monochromatic light corresponded closer to visual evaluation than the other. 2) But, visual evaluation considerably changed with the hue, even if the surface reflectance of the samples were...
During the Great Depression of the 1930s, an event to which the recent crisis is often compared, ... more During the Great Depression of the 1930s, an event to which the recent crisis is often compared, the animosities of the interwar period prevented a coordinated policy response to what was essentially a global problem. Indeed, it is often argued that this failure resulted, inter alia, in the cascading competitive protectionism triggered by the Smoot–Hawley tariffs that may well have magnified a deep recession into the Great Depression. In sharp contradistinction, the G20 orchestrated a much acclaimed globally coordinated policy response to the Great Recession, in the process effectively putting in place a new institution to manage globalization.
... and the early phases of nationalism in the colonies); that, later, a mass nationalist mobilis... more ... and the early phases of nationalism in the colonies); that, later, a mass nationalist mobilisation may unseat an existing nationalist elite anil install its ... which initially kept atoof afld was drawn in through a consewws effort on the part of die Congress, in the face of patidar opposition ...
The Delhi G20 summit accentuated India’s growing geopolitical clout, but also diminished its soft... more The Delhi G20 summit accentuated India’s growing geopolitical clout, but also diminished its soft power. With the passage of time the paragraphs for which the Delhi Summit is most likely to be remembered are paragraphs 7-14 on the War in Ukraine, paragraph 76 that admitted the African Union as a permanent member of the G20, and the intriguing paragraph 78 on freedom of religion, expression and association.
It was relatively easy for global powers with differing interests to agree on economic matters. N... more It was relatively easy for global powers with differing interests to agree on economic matters. Now, getting a leaders’ statement in place will require a lot more work. The paper traces the origins of multiculturalism and the G 20's role within it in the run up to the 18th G 20 summit in New Delhi in september 2023
It would be wrong to use present-day norms to label certain historical events as crimes. If we mu... more It would be wrong to use present-day norms to label certain historical events as crimes. If we must judge the past, it should be in relation to its time, rather than our present.
India cannot afford lost decades, like the one it is presently experiencing with trend growth fal... more India cannot afford lost decades, like the one it is presently experiencing with trend growth falling sharply. This will not only push it further behind China, but it might also age before it grows rich. This would scuttle its geopolitical ambitions and lock it into a middle-income trap. Representative image. Photo: PTI/Files Can India Become a Developed Economy and Catch Up with China? ... https://thewire.in/economy/can-india-become-a-developed-economy- ...
India cannot afford lost decades, like the one it is presently experiencing with trend growth fal... more India cannot afford lost decades, like the one it is presently experiencing with trend growth falling sharply. This will not only push it further behind China, but it might also age before it grows rich. This would scuttle its geopolitical ambitions and lock it into a middle-income trap. Representative image. Photo: PTI/Files Can India Become a Developed Economy and Catch Up with China? ... https://thewire.in/economy/can-india-become-a-developed-economy- ...
By virtue of its status as a major developing country, the Indian G 20 Chair is well positioned ... more By virtue of its status as a major developing country, the Indian G 20 Chair is well positioned to bring the North and South closer on the issue of climate change and go beyond the grand bargains of the COP 2009 Copenhagen that set up the Green Climate Fund, and Paris Accords. The agenda advanced by New Delhi must incorporate measures to balance concerns of reducing carbon emissions with resultant development lags and job losses that smaller nations fear. The Indian Chair could press for higher environment funding and technology transfers by developed nations in return for more concrete emission targets, both short-term and long-term, with more ambitious timelines, in the light of the discouraging assessment of the UNEP.
Tracking and Tackling Covid -19: Global Perspectives ed. Ali Mehdi, 2022
As one of the most powerful intergovernmental forums of the 21st century, the G20 or the Group of... more As one of the most powerful intergovernmental forums of the 21st century, the G20 or the Group of Twenty, comprising developing and developed nations from across the globe, is saddled with responsibilities of steering the world to a more economically, fiscally, environmentally and politically sustainable future. Today, as the Covid-19 crisis looms large, which is perhaps the biggest global crisis of this scale after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC)-to which, the G20 forum owes its meteoric rise-the G20's role in managing it and chartering a sustainable exit is of immense significance. This chapter discusses the group's evolution since its inception and the roles played by the Saudi Arabian and Italian presidencies (in 2020 and 2021, respectively) in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic. It also recommends action points for the Indonesian (2022) and Indian (2023) presidencies, underlining particular aspects related to global health, climate change, trade and investment, and governance of the new multilateral economic order. It draws attention to some other pressing and emerging economic issues that the G20 Presidencies could bring to the table. Some of the criticisms hurled at the group have been presented towards the end alongside some mitigation measures to counteract them as well as to expand the G20's role in policymaking, crisis management and bridging the North-South divide. The G20 and its Agenda The G20, like the old Concert of Europe and the G7, on which it is structurally patterned, is a small, compact group, comprising
The recently published Global Hunger Index has lowered India’s global rank from 101 out of 116 ... more The recently published Global Hunger Index has lowered India’s global rank from 101 out of 116 countries in 2021 to 107 out of 121 in 2022. This places India below all South Asian countries other than Afghanistan, and also below several poor African countries such as Rwanda, Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Republic of Congo. This led to a political firestorm on social media. The article considers three separate ways to view the Global Hunger Index on its merits, namely at the level of theory, at the level of methodology, and at the level of Indian peculiarities.
G 20 @ 2023. India's Presidency. Two Essays (ICWA), 2022
What exactly is the G 20? How and why did it come into being? How does it work? Why is there as m... more What exactly is the G 20? How and why did it come into being? How does it work? Why is there as much hype over G 20 Summits as those of the G 7, and what is the relationship between these two high profile groupings? What has been India’s own contributions to the functioning of the G 20 so far? What does hosting a G 20 Summit entail? What makes for a successful Summit? What might be the issues that could dominate the Indian Presidency and the New Delhi Declaration’? These are the questions that this paper attempts to discuss.
The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Insti... more The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad.
Investment and consumption must spurt for the Indian economy’s base effect not to spell decelerat... more Investment and consumption must spurt for the Indian economy’s base effect not to spell deceleration after two years of fast expansion
Most of the major decisions at the 16th G20 Summit in Rome were anticipated in the G-7 meeting he... more Most of the major decisions at the 16th G20 Summit in Rome were anticipated in the G-7 meeting held four months earlier in the UK’s Cornwall.A return of major decisions to a club of seven would not augur well for international cooperation
The paper gives a synoptic view of the evolution of macroeconomic policies from the time of the G... more The paper gives a synoptic view of the evolution of macroeconomic policies from the time of the Great Depression and the current thinking in stabilizing business cycles and financial markets, and makes an overview of the policy response to the recent Global Financial Crisis. It analyses the adjustments made in the global economy in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, as also the adjustments in financial markets. The concluding section discusses the current prospects of the global economy, and the risks that possibly lie ahead.
The recent global financial crisis initiated the most far-reaching and comprehensive reform of fi... more The recent global financial crisis initiated the most far-reaching and comprehensive reform of financial regulation in advanced economies since the days of the Great Depression. The international initiative under the aegis of the G20 was supplemented by major national level initiatives in major jurisdictions. The paper discusses the progress of what it considers to be the core reforms of Basel III, shadow banking, ring-fencing and financial institutions deemed too big to fail. It goes on to discuss the impact and relevance of these reforms in emerging markets who, while willing participants in the reform process, have so far not been actively engaged in the global debate, perhaps since their financial systems are fundamentally different.
Over the last few decades, a sense of complacency had set in amongst economists and policymakers ... more Over the last few decades, a sense of complacency had set in amongst economists and policymakers as they came to consider macroeconomic policies — fi scal initially, but increasingly monetary — as the holy grail that could smoothen business cycles and sustain high growth. This confi dence has been badly shaken in the aftermath of what is arguably the most devastating fi nancial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Unconventional monetary policies,
The 2008 global financial and economic crisis, which continues to fester, elicited a strong, glob... more The 2008 global financial and economic crisis, which continues to fester, elicited a strong, globally coordinated policy response orchestrated by G20 Leaders. The near-term impact was spectacular, but after about five years the global economy and financial system are still in a shambles in most advanced economies. A new and dangerous fault line has opened up in the Euro Zone. This has generated an animated debate over whether the policy response was entirely appropriate, whether the protracted use of essentially short-term policy instruments has negative medium- to long-term consequences, and what should be the appropriate policy stance going forward. Concerns over public debt, growth and inflation down the road have divided economists and policymakers into two major camps. Those who give precedence to growth favour continuing with macroeconomic stimulus; those that give precedence to the damaging impact of sustained public deficits and debt favour austerity. If monetary policy is i...
The staining of cloths includes not only the achromatic staining but also the chromatic one. The ... more The staining of cloths includes not only the achromatic staining but also the chromatic one. The evaluation of each staining has been done with the surface reflectance which represents the degree of whiteness. Usually, Rinin, measured at wavelength showing the maximum absorption of visible monochromatic light, or R550 at 550 nm wavelength is used as the surface reflectance. Alternatively Y value is used instead of the surface reflectance. But the investigations on the correspondence of the surface reflectance to visual sensation have not yet been carried out. In this paper, the correspondence mentioned above was investigated. The results obtained were as follows: 1) When we evaluated the degree of staining, the surface reflectance measured at a wavelength showing the maximum absorption of visible monochromatic light corresponded closer to visual evaluation than the other. 2) But, visual evaluation considerably changed with the hue, even if the surface reflectance of the samples were...
During the Great Depression of the 1930s, an event to which the recent crisis is often compared, ... more During the Great Depression of the 1930s, an event to which the recent crisis is often compared, the animosities of the interwar period prevented a coordinated policy response to what was essentially a global problem. Indeed, it is often argued that this failure resulted, inter alia, in the cascading competitive protectionism triggered by the Smoot–Hawley tariffs that may well have magnified a deep recession into the Great Depression. In sharp contradistinction, the G20 orchestrated a much acclaimed globally coordinated policy response to the Great Recession, in the process effectively putting in place a new institution to manage globalization.
... and the early phases of nationalism in the colonies); that, later, a mass nationalist mobilis... more ... and the early phases of nationalism in the colonies); that, later, a mass nationalist mobilisation may unseat an existing nationalist elite anil install its ... which initially kept atoof afld was drawn in through a consewws effort on the part of die Congress, in the face of patidar opposition ...
This is the spreadsheet containing more detailed data compiled for the article The Covid Axis Shi... more This is the spreadsheet containing more detailed data compiled for the article The Covid Axis Shits to the West Atlantic
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Papers by Alok Sheel
The agenda advanced by New Delhi must incorporate measures to balance concerns of reducing carbon emissions with resultant development lags and job losses that smaller nations fear. The Indian Chair could press for higher environment funding and technology transfers by developed nations in return for more concrete emission targets, both short-term and long-term, with more ambitious timelines, in the light of the discouraging assessment of the UNEP.
The agenda advanced by New Delhi must incorporate measures to balance concerns of reducing carbon emissions with resultant development lags and job losses that smaller nations fear. The Indian Chair could press for higher environment funding and technology transfers by developed nations in return for more concrete emission targets, both short-term and long-term, with more ambitious timelines, in the light of the discouraging assessment of the UNEP.
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http://www.amazon.com/Looking-Back-Macroeconomics-101-Financial/dp/9332701709