... See Craigwell (1997), Worrell and Holder (1987), Worrell and Galawish (1988) and Dalrymple et... more ... See Craigwell (1997), Worrell and Holder (1987), Worrell and Galawish (1988) and Dalrymple et al. (1996). ... Caribbean applications of structural econometric models have been critiqued in Worrell (1974) and Craigwell et al. (1996). ...
Depuis plusieurs décennies, la problématique de la datation du cycle économique est constamment a... more Depuis plusieurs décennies, la problématique de la datation du cycle économique est constamment au centre des préoccupations des acteurs et décideurs impliqués dans la conduite de la politique économique conjoncturelle. En dépit de la mise au point de nombreuses méthodes dédiées à la détection des points de retournement du cycle, seul un nombre restreint de pays élabore et diffuse une chronologie officielle du cycle économique. Cet article propose une étude des cycles économiques dans le bassin Caraïbe en considérant les cas particuliers de la Barbade, la Jamaïque et Trinidad-et-Tobago, les seuls pays de la zone pour lesquels des bases de données de haute fréquence suffisantes sont disponibles sur de longues périodes. En premier lieu, nous recourons à des méthodes qui font consensus dans la littérature pour identifier les points de retournement du cycle des affaires et du cycle de croissance et établir une description de leurs principales caractéristiques empiriques. En second lieu,...
La modelisation espace-etat et les concepts de la theorie de la commande offrent une methodologie... more La modelisation espace-etat et les concepts de la theorie de la commande offrent une methodologie generale de conception, d'analyse et de resolution des problemes de politique economique applicable a une tres large classe de systemes economiques. Bien qu'elle fut utilisee par certains economistes des le debut des annees 1970, cette approche connait, depuis quelques annees, un essor sans cesse croissant quant a la modelisation econometrique ou elle trouve veritablement la place qui aurait du etre la sienne bien avant. C'est dans ce contexte que nous avons voulu placer cette these. En proposant un logiciel dedie a l'analyse des proprietes dynamiques generales et l'evaluation de lois de commande pour les processus economiques, nous avons cherche a contribuer a une plus large utilisation de la theorie de la commande par les economistes. Les travaux que nous avons presentes s'articulent en trois parties. Dans les deux premieres nous avons propose une analyse criti...
The objective of this paper is to derive the total economic value of Welchman Hall Gully, a touri... more The objective of this paper is to derive the total economic value of Welchman Hall Gully, a tourist site which contributes in its own right to the economic prosperity of Barbados. The objective is achieved through the derivation of use and non-use values of the amenity. Despite its limitations, contingent valuation method (CVM) is of interest to derive such values. The data for analysis come from a well-crafted CVM survey. Using statistical tools and Tobit modelling, the paper finds that the additional annual use value could reach BDS$45,924.00 or US$22,962.00 and the yearly non-use value could be BDS$72,765.00. Taking the present entrance fees into account, the total undiscounted economic value of the site could reach BDS$289,289.00. Income size, love for the environment, gender and level of education positively affect willingness to pay for an additional entrance fee. Gender, age and membership in a non-governmental organization, sensibly affect willingness to contribute to a fund...
This paper investigates some of the topics related to the discerning of trends and cycles in prod... more This paper investigates some of the topics related to the discerning of trends and cycles in production and unemployment data of the Caribbean economies of Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago. Using the HodrickPrescott and Baxter-King filters, this study proposes a chronology and a description of some of the cyclical properties of these series. Next, it examines the causality relationships that combine these variables. Empirical evidence from the cross-correlation coefficients indicates that the unemployment rate leads the cycle in both countries. A test of Okun’s Law suggests that it may not be very relevant in these two economies and hence, may not be a correct measure of unoccupied resources.
In the Caribbean Basin countries as in many other parts of the world, unemployment has become sin... more In the Caribbean Basin countries as in many other parts of the world, unemployment has become since the early 1980s one of the major dimensions of economic dysfunctions affecting societies. With levels that are above 15% and often reaching values of up to 20% or 30% during the decades 1980, 1990 and 2000, unemployment rates have increased rapidly and then holding at levels high over the past thirty years. This article offers an overview of the phenomenon of high and persistent unemployment in countries of the Caribbean. At first it highlights the specific characteristics of unemployment Caribbean with respect to that observed in other industrialized and developing nations. In a second step, it summarizes the main ideas that have been proposed to explain the problem of unemployment hysteresis and discusses their appropriateness in the case of countries considered. In a third time, it provides an empirical examination of the hypothesis of hysteresis including the framework of threshol...
This article was written in the context of the search for new ways in which to model the economic... more This article was written in the context of the search for new ways in which to model the economic variables of the French overseas departments. It explores the possibility of applying the input-output approach, in order to prepare economic policy for these regions. Based on the economic data that has only recently become available, since mid-2003, it is now possible to envisage the modelling of interrelations between resource and employment aggregates and the sectional accounts of economic agents. With this in mind, the input-output approach, which has provoked a renewed interest during recent years, seems to be particularly adapted to the analysis of the major macroeconomic questions that today preoccupy both the government and regional representatives. This article has a double aim: to propose the first MCS prototype for Guadeloupe and to illustrate the uses of input-output models on one hand, and on the other, to provide teachings and recommendations for the establishment of a methodological process of elaborating macroeconomic estimates and simulations.
Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 2017
The discussion and the empirical investigations presented in this article are part of the goal t... more The discussion and the empirical investigations presented in this article are part of the goal to implement the specific actions necessary for the economic evaluation of the impacts of tourism based on the conceptual and methodological standards of Tourist Satellite Accounts (TSAs) as formalised by the World Tourism Organisation (WTO), the United Nations Statistics Division and the OECD. First, we summarise the essential concepts and definitions relating to the macroeconomic impact of tourism; then, we offer a brief summary of the corpus of literature dedicated to assessing the importance of the tourism industry in the economies of the French Overseas Departments, in particular in the case of Guadeloupe. Secondly, we demonstrate that the theoretical framework of SAM modelling provides a particularly appropriate approach to conducting a detailed analysis of the repercussions of tourism in terms of its direct, indirect and induced effects across the various branches of the...
In the case of the French overseas departments (DOM), particularly of Guadeloupe, which are at th... more In the case of the French overseas departments (DOM), particularly of Guadeloupe, which are at the dawn of the experiment reaching reforms of economic policies, development of a simulation tool such as a macroeconomic CGE appears naturally as a highly desirable requirement. This recourse to the construction of specific models for DOM is perfectly consistent with one of the main conclusions of the information report commissioned by the Senate in the aftermath of the social crisis of early 2009: "Two cross-cutting issues are back ceaselessly into the talks: the failure of administrative tools and a lack of formal evaluation prior to the decision. Therefore, how to build the credibility of public policy that are conducted in the dark? Similarly, how to address the insufficient consideration of the specific characteristics of the overseas departments, which undermines the implementation of the principle of equality before the law which is measured in comparable situations." Th...
Les Grandes Antilles sont composées d'un chapelet d'îles plus ou moins riches. Ces différ... more Les Grandes Antilles sont composées d'un chapelet d'îles plus ou moins riches. Ces différences entraînent des flux migratoires très variés entre les îles. Ainsi, sur 38 millions d'habitants, la Caraïbe compte-t-elle un million de migrants intrarégionaux. Si, en volume, ces migrations représentent une portion congrue des migrations mondiales, compte tenu de la petite taille des territoires, ces circulations de populations peuvent avoir des conséquences économiques importantes, notamment sur les marchés locaux du travail, tant pour les pays d'accueil que pour les pays d'origine des migrants.
This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (bas... more This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974-2003 using the Bry and Boschan algorithm. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of the individual sectors that comprises real output. The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is acyclical.
... See Craigwell (1997), Worrell and Holder (1987), Worrell and Galawish (1988) and Dalrymple et... more ... See Craigwell (1997), Worrell and Holder (1987), Worrell and Galawish (1988) and Dalrymple et al. (1996). ... Caribbean applications of structural econometric models have been critiqued in Worrell (1974) and Craigwell et al. (1996). ...
Depuis plusieurs décennies, la problématique de la datation du cycle économique est constamment a... more Depuis plusieurs décennies, la problématique de la datation du cycle économique est constamment au centre des préoccupations des acteurs et décideurs impliqués dans la conduite de la politique économique conjoncturelle. En dépit de la mise au point de nombreuses méthodes dédiées à la détection des points de retournement du cycle, seul un nombre restreint de pays élabore et diffuse une chronologie officielle du cycle économique. Cet article propose une étude des cycles économiques dans le bassin Caraïbe en considérant les cas particuliers de la Barbade, la Jamaïque et Trinidad-et-Tobago, les seuls pays de la zone pour lesquels des bases de données de haute fréquence suffisantes sont disponibles sur de longues périodes. En premier lieu, nous recourons à des méthodes qui font consensus dans la littérature pour identifier les points de retournement du cycle des affaires et du cycle de croissance et établir une description de leurs principales caractéristiques empiriques. En second lieu,...
La modelisation espace-etat et les concepts de la theorie de la commande offrent une methodologie... more La modelisation espace-etat et les concepts de la theorie de la commande offrent une methodologie generale de conception, d'analyse et de resolution des problemes de politique economique applicable a une tres large classe de systemes economiques. Bien qu'elle fut utilisee par certains economistes des le debut des annees 1970, cette approche connait, depuis quelques annees, un essor sans cesse croissant quant a la modelisation econometrique ou elle trouve veritablement la place qui aurait du etre la sienne bien avant. C'est dans ce contexte que nous avons voulu placer cette these. En proposant un logiciel dedie a l'analyse des proprietes dynamiques generales et l'evaluation de lois de commande pour les processus economiques, nous avons cherche a contribuer a une plus large utilisation de la theorie de la commande par les economistes. Les travaux que nous avons presentes s'articulent en trois parties. Dans les deux premieres nous avons propose une analyse criti...
The objective of this paper is to derive the total economic value of Welchman Hall Gully, a touri... more The objective of this paper is to derive the total economic value of Welchman Hall Gully, a tourist site which contributes in its own right to the economic prosperity of Barbados. The objective is achieved through the derivation of use and non-use values of the amenity. Despite its limitations, contingent valuation method (CVM) is of interest to derive such values. The data for analysis come from a well-crafted CVM survey. Using statistical tools and Tobit modelling, the paper finds that the additional annual use value could reach BDS$45,924.00 or US$22,962.00 and the yearly non-use value could be BDS$72,765.00. Taking the present entrance fees into account, the total undiscounted economic value of the site could reach BDS$289,289.00. Income size, love for the environment, gender and level of education positively affect willingness to pay for an additional entrance fee. Gender, age and membership in a non-governmental organization, sensibly affect willingness to contribute to a fund...
This paper investigates some of the topics related to the discerning of trends and cycles in prod... more This paper investigates some of the topics related to the discerning of trends and cycles in production and unemployment data of the Caribbean economies of Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago. Using the HodrickPrescott and Baxter-King filters, this study proposes a chronology and a description of some of the cyclical properties of these series. Next, it examines the causality relationships that combine these variables. Empirical evidence from the cross-correlation coefficients indicates that the unemployment rate leads the cycle in both countries. A test of Okun’s Law suggests that it may not be very relevant in these two economies and hence, may not be a correct measure of unoccupied resources.
In the Caribbean Basin countries as in many other parts of the world, unemployment has become sin... more In the Caribbean Basin countries as in many other parts of the world, unemployment has become since the early 1980s one of the major dimensions of economic dysfunctions affecting societies. With levels that are above 15% and often reaching values of up to 20% or 30% during the decades 1980, 1990 and 2000, unemployment rates have increased rapidly and then holding at levels high over the past thirty years. This article offers an overview of the phenomenon of high and persistent unemployment in countries of the Caribbean. At first it highlights the specific characteristics of unemployment Caribbean with respect to that observed in other industrialized and developing nations. In a second step, it summarizes the main ideas that have been proposed to explain the problem of unemployment hysteresis and discusses their appropriateness in the case of countries considered. In a third time, it provides an empirical examination of the hypothesis of hysteresis including the framework of threshol...
This article was written in the context of the search for new ways in which to model the economic... more This article was written in the context of the search for new ways in which to model the economic variables of the French overseas departments. It explores the possibility of applying the input-output approach, in order to prepare economic policy for these regions. Based on the economic data that has only recently become available, since mid-2003, it is now possible to envisage the modelling of interrelations between resource and employment aggregates and the sectional accounts of economic agents. With this in mind, the input-output approach, which has provoked a renewed interest during recent years, seems to be particularly adapted to the analysis of the major macroeconomic questions that today preoccupy both the government and regional representatives. This article has a double aim: to propose the first MCS prototype for Guadeloupe and to illustrate the uses of input-output models on one hand, and on the other, to provide teachings and recommendations for the establishment of a methodological process of elaborating macroeconomic estimates and simulations.
Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 2017
The discussion and the empirical investigations presented in this article are part of the goal t... more The discussion and the empirical investigations presented in this article are part of the goal to implement the specific actions necessary for the economic evaluation of the impacts of tourism based on the conceptual and methodological standards of Tourist Satellite Accounts (TSAs) as formalised by the World Tourism Organisation (WTO), the United Nations Statistics Division and the OECD. First, we summarise the essential concepts and definitions relating to the macroeconomic impact of tourism; then, we offer a brief summary of the corpus of literature dedicated to assessing the importance of the tourism industry in the economies of the French Overseas Departments, in particular in the case of Guadeloupe. Secondly, we demonstrate that the theoretical framework of SAM modelling provides a particularly appropriate approach to conducting a detailed analysis of the repercussions of tourism in terms of its direct, indirect and induced effects across the various branches of the...
In the case of the French overseas departments (DOM), particularly of Guadeloupe, which are at th... more In the case of the French overseas departments (DOM), particularly of Guadeloupe, which are at the dawn of the experiment reaching reforms of economic policies, development of a simulation tool such as a macroeconomic CGE appears naturally as a highly desirable requirement. This recourse to the construction of specific models for DOM is perfectly consistent with one of the main conclusions of the information report commissioned by the Senate in the aftermath of the social crisis of early 2009: "Two cross-cutting issues are back ceaselessly into the talks: the failure of administrative tools and a lack of formal evaluation prior to the decision. Therefore, how to build the credibility of public policy that are conducted in the dark? Similarly, how to address the insufficient consideration of the specific characteristics of the overseas departments, which undermines the implementation of the principle of equality before the law which is measured in comparable situations." Th...
Les Grandes Antilles sont composées d'un chapelet d'îles plus ou moins riches. Ces différ... more Les Grandes Antilles sont composées d'un chapelet d'îles plus ou moins riches. Ces différences entraînent des flux migratoires très variés entre les îles. Ainsi, sur 38 millions d'habitants, la Caraïbe compte-t-elle un million de migrants intrarégionaux. Si, en volume, ces migrations représentent une portion congrue des migrations mondiales, compte tenu de la petite taille des territoires, ces circulations de populations peuvent avoir des conséquences économiques importantes, notamment sur les marchés locaux du travail, tant pour les pays d'accueil que pour les pays d'origine des migrants.
This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (bas... more This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974-2003 using the Bry and Boschan algorithm. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of the individual sectors that comprises real output. The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is acyclical.
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Papers by Alain Maurin