blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/03/23/following-likuds-victory-in-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-faces... more blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/03/23/following-likuds-victory-in-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-faces-a-challenge-to-secure-a-stable-coalition Israel held legislative elections on 17 March, with the result producing a victory for incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. Abraham Diskin writes on the coalition formation process which will follow the elections. He notes that the most likely outcome is for Netanyahu to attempt to form a coalition of the right which includes the new centrist party Kulanu. In Israel, like in most other multi-party parliamentary systems, the main question that voters face is what governmental coalition is expected following the elections. The political outcome of elections is dictated not only by the voter, but also by the negotiations held between the leaders of the parties that gained representation in the elected parliament. Usually the government is supported in parliamentary systems by the majority of parliament members. In the lack of such a majority the government may face either a vote of no confidence in parliament or inability to implement its policies.
... 14. Global Politics: Essays in Honour of David Vital, edited by Abraham Ben-Zvi and Aharon Kl... more ... 14. Global Politics: Essays in Honour of David Vital, edited by Abraham Ben-Zvi and Aharon Klieman. 15. Parties, Elections and Cleavages; Israel in Comparative and TheoreticalPerspective, edited by Reuven Y.Hazan and Moshe Maor. 16. ...
The Israeli election for Prime Minister in 1999 featured five candidates. Three, including a majo... more The Israeli election for Prime Minister in 1999 featured five candidates. Three, including a major, centrally located candidate, Yitzhak Mordechai, withdrew from competition the day before the voting. Mordechai withdrew in large measure in reaction to the strategic decisions of voters, that is, some voters who favored him deserted his candidacy as his poll standings declined. We use surveys conducted during the 1999 campaign to estimate models of strategic voting behavior based on the multi-candidate calculus of voting. We find that strategic voting in the Israeli, majority-with-runoff electoral system closely resembled the level and nature of strategic voting found in the more nearly pure plurality systems for which the statistical models were originally developed. The result is support for the reasoning Mordechai provided for his decision, illustrating the interlocking nature of strategic decisions between candidates and voters. 1 Four months before the election for Israeli Prime Minister on May 17, 1999, the Defense Minister in incumbent Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu's right-wing government, Yitzhak Mordechai, was dismissed from the government. He entered the prime ministerial race with high expectations that his moderate position on the peace process, Kurdish heritage, and military reputation made him the best bet to defeat the incumbent. However, the third major candidate, Ehud Barak of the Labor Party, effectively challenged Mordechai at the ideological center by leading his left-leaning party towards the middle despite losing ground on the far left in reaction (Doron 2002). With Mordechai seeing his support rapidly dwindling, due at least in part to Barak's Clinton-Blair like move, he withdrew from the contest the day before the election, bowing to the prospects of defeat due to the strategic actions he anticipated voters were about to make. Strategic reasoning by both voters and candidates is not unique to Israeli elections. The American presidential election of 2000, for example, provides another example but one with very different consequences. In that case, the more serious threat to the two major-party candidates, Al Gore and George W. Bush, came from the outside. Ralph Nader, candidate of the Green Party on the left, threatened to cut into the major-party vote. However, this meant cutting primarily into Gore's support, as Gore was nearer to Nader, and most in the Mordechai-like position. Gore and his supporters, however, campaigned vigorously against Nader, almost exclusively on strategic terms (see Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde 2003). We do not know if these arguments were persuasive, but survey evidence strongly suggests that many voters who
Based on recent work that suggests that voters in proportional represen tation (PR) systems have ... more Based on recent work that suggests that voters in proportional represen tation (PR) systems have incentives to cast strategic votes, the authors hypothesize that levels of strategic voting are similar in both firstpastthe post (FPTP) and PR systems. Comparing vote intentions in majoritarian elections in the United States, Mexico, Britain, and Israel to PR elections in Israel and the Netherlands, the authors find that a substantial proportion of
THIS PAPER ANALYSES the effect of non-sovereignty on the electoral behavior of the West Bank Arab... more THIS PAPER ANALYSES the effect of non-sovereignty on the electoral behavior of the West Bank Arab community. Since the annexation of the West Bank by Jordan in 19501 the Palestinians there became the only Palestinian population in the Arab world to enjoy citizenship and the right of political participation through an electoral process.2 They differed from other concentrations of Palestinians in other respects as well. The West Bank Arab community was the largest concentration of Palestinians anywhere, and the only one not in minority, being twice as large as Jordanrs original population. Half of the 900,000 Palestinians
Introduction Historical Survey The Electoral System Ecological Analysis The Arab Vote The Jewish ... more Introduction Historical Survey The Electoral System Ecological Analysis The Arab Vote The Jewish Ethnic Vote Political Stands, Polarization, and Volatility Accuracy in Polls and Timing the Decision for Whom to Vote The Results: Personal Profiles The Results: Coalition Formation Appendix Bibliography Index
The only general elections held in Israel are those of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. The r... more The only general elections held in Israel are those of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. The regular term of the Knesset is four years. Nevertheless, on several previous occasions, the Knesset dissolved itself and then held elections before its full term had been completed. Unlike the elections of 1977,198l and 1984, the eleventh Knesset did serve its full term and, hence, the elections to the' twelfth Knesset were held on 1 November 1988. The electoral system used in Israel is a simple proportional representation procedure. The competitors are strict lists of candidates. Usually, the lists are prepared by political parties but in some cases independent individuals or groups of such individuals present their own lists. Each voter is entitled to support one of these lists, but he is not allowed to change the order of the individual candidates who are included in his preferred list. The whole country serves as one single constituency. Seats are allocated only to lists that received more than one per cent of the valid votes. Each list of candidates is entitled to a number of seats proportional to the number of its supporters out of the total number of valid votes received by parties who have passed the 1 per cent threshold. The proportional procedure employed for the allocation of seats is the Hagenbach-Bischoff formula. This formula tends to slightly favour the more successful lists (Diskin and Diskin, 1988, ch. 3). Every two lists are allowed to declare, prior to the elections, a ‘surplus agreement’. Such agreements are usually signed between parties with some ideological proximity, who are interested in increasing their joint probability to achieve an additional seat in the Knesset. Once the 120 Knesset seats are allocated to the different lists, the first candidates on each list are declared elected according to the original order on the list. When a candidate vacates
Center at the Hebrew University for their financial support. Note: This chapter is a condensed ve... more Center at the Hebrew University for their financial support. Note: This chapter is a condensed version of a longer paper with the same title, containing additional results and more extensive methodological details. This paper is available from the first author’s website at
THIS PAPER ANALYSES the effect of non-sovereignty on the electoral behavior of the West Bank Arab... more THIS PAPER ANALYSES the effect of non-sovereignty on the electoral behavior of the West Bank Arab community. Since the annexation of the West Bank by Jordan in 19501 the Palestinians there became the only Palestinian population in the Arab world to enjoy citizenship and the right of political participation through an electoral process.2 They differed from other concentrations of Palestinians in other respects as well. The West Bank Arab community was the largest concentration of Palestinians anywhere, and the only one not in minority, being twice as large as Jordanrs original population. Half of the 900,000 Palestinians
Introduction Historical Survey The Electoral System Ecological Analysis The Arab Vote The Jewish ... more Introduction Historical Survey The Electoral System Ecological Analysis The Arab Vote The Jewish Ethnic Vote Political Stands, Polarization, and Volatility Accuracy in Polls and Timing the Decision for Whom to Vote The Results: Personal Profiles The Results: Coalition Formation Appendix Bibliography Index
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/03/23/following-likuds-victory-in-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-faces... more blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/03/23/following-likuds-victory-in-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-faces-a-challenge-to-secure-a-stable-coalition Israel held legislative elections on 17 March, with the result producing a victory for incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. Abraham Diskin writes on the coalition formation process which will follow the elections. He notes that the most likely outcome is for Netanyahu to attempt to form a coalition of the right which includes the new centrist party Kulanu. In Israel, like in most other multi-party parliamentary systems, the main question that voters face is what governmental coalition is expected following the elections. The political outcome of elections is dictated not only by the voter, but also by the negotiations held between the leaders of the parties that gained representation in the elected parliament. Usually the government is supported in parliamentary systems by the majority of parliament members. In the lack of such a majority the government may face either a vote of no confidence in parliament or inability to implement its policies.
... 14. Global Politics: Essays in Honour of David Vital, edited by Abraham Ben-Zvi and Aharon Kl... more ... 14. Global Politics: Essays in Honour of David Vital, edited by Abraham Ben-Zvi and Aharon Klieman. 15. Parties, Elections and Cleavages; Israel in Comparative and TheoreticalPerspective, edited by Reuven Y.Hazan and Moshe Maor. 16. ...
The Israeli election for Prime Minister in 1999 featured five candidates. Three, including a majo... more The Israeli election for Prime Minister in 1999 featured five candidates. Three, including a major, centrally located candidate, Yitzhak Mordechai, withdrew from competition the day before the voting. Mordechai withdrew in large measure in reaction to the strategic decisions of voters, that is, some voters who favored him deserted his candidacy as his poll standings declined. We use surveys conducted during the 1999 campaign to estimate models of strategic voting behavior based on the multi-candidate calculus of voting. We find that strategic voting in the Israeli, majority-with-runoff electoral system closely resembled the level and nature of strategic voting found in the more nearly pure plurality systems for which the statistical models were originally developed. The result is support for the reasoning Mordechai provided for his decision, illustrating the interlocking nature of strategic decisions between candidates and voters. 1 Four months before the election for Israeli Prime Minister on May 17, 1999, the Defense Minister in incumbent Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu's right-wing government, Yitzhak Mordechai, was dismissed from the government. He entered the prime ministerial race with high expectations that his moderate position on the peace process, Kurdish heritage, and military reputation made him the best bet to defeat the incumbent. However, the third major candidate, Ehud Barak of the Labor Party, effectively challenged Mordechai at the ideological center by leading his left-leaning party towards the middle despite losing ground on the far left in reaction (Doron 2002). With Mordechai seeing his support rapidly dwindling, due at least in part to Barak's Clinton-Blair like move, he withdrew from the contest the day before the election, bowing to the prospects of defeat due to the strategic actions he anticipated voters were about to make. Strategic reasoning by both voters and candidates is not unique to Israeli elections. The American presidential election of 2000, for example, provides another example but one with very different consequences. In that case, the more serious threat to the two major-party candidates, Al Gore and George W. Bush, came from the outside. Ralph Nader, candidate of the Green Party on the left, threatened to cut into the major-party vote. However, this meant cutting primarily into Gore's support, as Gore was nearer to Nader, and most in the Mordechai-like position. Gore and his supporters, however, campaigned vigorously against Nader, almost exclusively on strategic terms (see Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde 2003). We do not know if these arguments were persuasive, but survey evidence strongly suggests that many voters who
Based on recent work that suggests that voters in proportional represen tation (PR) systems have ... more Based on recent work that suggests that voters in proportional represen tation (PR) systems have incentives to cast strategic votes, the authors hypothesize that levels of strategic voting are similar in both firstpastthe post (FPTP) and PR systems. Comparing vote intentions in majoritarian elections in the United States, Mexico, Britain, and Israel to PR elections in Israel and the Netherlands, the authors find that a substantial proportion of
THIS PAPER ANALYSES the effect of non-sovereignty on the electoral behavior of the West Bank Arab... more THIS PAPER ANALYSES the effect of non-sovereignty on the electoral behavior of the West Bank Arab community. Since the annexation of the West Bank by Jordan in 19501 the Palestinians there became the only Palestinian population in the Arab world to enjoy citizenship and the right of political participation through an electoral process.2 They differed from other concentrations of Palestinians in other respects as well. The West Bank Arab community was the largest concentration of Palestinians anywhere, and the only one not in minority, being twice as large as Jordanrs original population. Half of the 900,000 Palestinians
Introduction Historical Survey The Electoral System Ecological Analysis The Arab Vote The Jewish ... more Introduction Historical Survey The Electoral System Ecological Analysis The Arab Vote The Jewish Ethnic Vote Political Stands, Polarization, and Volatility Accuracy in Polls and Timing the Decision for Whom to Vote The Results: Personal Profiles The Results: Coalition Formation Appendix Bibliography Index
The only general elections held in Israel are those of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. The r... more The only general elections held in Israel are those of the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. The regular term of the Knesset is four years. Nevertheless, on several previous occasions, the Knesset dissolved itself and then held elections before its full term had been completed. Unlike the elections of 1977,198l and 1984, the eleventh Knesset did serve its full term and, hence, the elections to the' twelfth Knesset were held on 1 November 1988. The electoral system used in Israel is a simple proportional representation procedure. The competitors are strict lists of candidates. Usually, the lists are prepared by political parties but in some cases independent individuals or groups of such individuals present their own lists. Each voter is entitled to support one of these lists, but he is not allowed to change the order of the individual candidates who are included in his preferred list. The whole country serves as one single constituency. Seats are allocated only to lists that received more than one per cent of the valid votes. Each list of candidates is entitled to a number of seats proportional to the number of its supporters out of the total number of valid votes received by parties who have passed the 1 per cent threshold. The proportional procedure employed for the allocation of seats is the Hagenbach-Bischoff formula. This formula tends to slightly favour the more successful lists (Diskin and Diskin, 1988, ch. 3). Every two lists are allowed to declare, prior to the elections, a ‘surplus agreement’. Such agreements are usually signed between parties with some ideological proximity, who are interested in increasing their joint probability to achieve an additional seat in the Knesset. Once the 120 Knesset seats are allocated to the different lists, the first candidates on each list are declared elected according to the original order on the list. When a candidate vacates
Center at the Hebrew University for their financial support. Note: This chapter is a condensed ve... more Center at the Hebrew University for their financial support. Note: This chapter is a condensed version of a longer paper with the same title, containing additional results and more extensive methodological details. This paper is available from the first author’s website at
THIS PAPER ANALYSES the effect of non-sovereignty on the electoral behavior of the West Bank Arab... more THIS PAPER ANALYSES the effect of non-sovereignty on the electoral behavior of the West Bank Arab community. Since the annexation of the West Bank by Jordan in 19501 the Palestinians there became the only Palestinian population in the Arab world to enjoy citizenship and the right of political participation through an electoral process.2 They differed from other concentrations of Palestinians in other respects as well. The West Bank Arab community was the largest concentration of Palestinians anywhere, and the only one not in minority, being twice as large as Jordanrs original population. Half of the 900,000 Palestinians
Introduction Historical Survey The Electoral System Ecological Analysis The Arab Vote The Jewish ... more Introduction Historical Survey The Electoral System Ecological Analysis The Arab Vote The Jewish Ethnic Vote Political Stands, Polarization, and Volatility Accuracy in Polls and Timing the Decision for Whom to Vote The Results: Personal Profiles The Results: Coalition Formation Appendix Bibliography Index
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