Papers by Sergey Karaganov
Russia in Global Affairs
Note from the Editors: This article had been written and accepted for publication before the star... more Note from the Editors: This article had been written and accepted for publication before the start of Russia's military operation in Ukraine. The author chose not to make any amendments as his major position, assessments, and insight remain valid.
Russia in global affairs, 2022
Note from the Editors: This article had been written and accepted for publication before the star... more Note from the Editors: This article had been written and accepted for publication before the start of Russia's military operation in Ukraine. The author chose not to make any amendments as his major position, assessments, and insight remain valid.
Springer eBooks, 2020
Among the reasons for the ongoing geopolitical revolution, unprecedented rapid change in the glob... more Among the reasons for the ongoing geopolitical revolution, unprecedented rapid change in the global balance of power away from the West and Europe and toward China and Asia—profound yet rarely noted shift of the military-political foundation on which world order is ultimately based. The world was “multipolar” until the sixteenth century, when Europe started to achieve military superiority that served as the basis of its economic, political, and cultural expansion and its ability to channel global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to its own advantage. This situation began to change after the Soviet Union, and later China, developed nuclear weapons. This increasingly deprived the West of its ability to impose its interests through military force. Seeking to ensure its fundamental security interests, Russia has become a sort of “midwife of history” by largely ushering in the current shift in the global balance of power and by expanding the freedom of choice available to the world’s countries and peoples.
World economy brief, 2019
Strategic Analysis, Oct 11, 2016
Abstract The article discusses the results of Russian foreign policy since the collapse of the So... more Abstract The article discusses the results of Russian foreign policy since the collapse of the Soviet Union against the background of major new global and regional international trends and the policy of other major world powers. The author argues that Russia should work for preventing a new structured confrontation in Europe, maintaining international stability, and keeping the world from sliding into a big war which seems to be more likely now than ever before in the last 50 years. At the same time it should join forces with China, India, Iran and other major non-Western players in building a community of cooperation, development and security for Greater Eurasia, open to the world and serving as one of the pillars of its stable and peaceful development. The world is changing incredibly fast and precariously. Russia must occupy a leading place in this world by moving towards economic growth and playing a key role in preventing a new world war, supporting global strategic stability and building or rebuilding international cooperation and security structures for the decade to come.
Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Международные отношения, Dec 15, 2016
Instead of predicted end of ideology and ideological competition due to presumed 15-20 years ago ... more Instead of predicted end of ideology and ideological competition due to presumed 15-20 years ago final victory of Western liberalism and democracy the world is sliding into the new ideological struggle. There are many reasons for it: appeal of the West is declining, the democratization and renationalization of international polities push to the fore new leaders and most of them profess traditional and nationalist values. New post-European values did not get hold in Russian society seeking old values it has been cut off during the 70 years of the Communist experiment and also due to the fact that the West pursued a neo-Weimar policy of geopolitical expansion, which provoked defensive reaction to everything coming from the West. The intensity of the new ideological struggle is exacerbated by the moral and ideological vacuum created by modernization, which pushes aside many traditional religious and moral values. Author concludes that mutual resentment between Russia and Europe is quite strong right now, but it's better to build good-neighborly relations while understanding that we are different. And it's needed to try hard to avoid a new systemic military-political confrontation that is desired by many forces.
Journal of Eurasian Studies, Jul 1, 2018
The author argues that the current state of international relations can be characterized as a new... more The author argues that the current state of international relations can be characterized as a new Cold War with Eurasia emerging as its major battlefield and at the same time as a second, non-Western pole of a new confrontation. The reason for it is that the United States and some European countries are trying to reverse the decline of their dominance which they have enjoyed over the past five hundred years. The current situation is much more dangerous than it used to be during the previous Cold War, but this attempt will most likely prove futile. While the world comes through a period of intensifying competition, it will stimulate reformatting of the global geopolitical, geo-economic, and geo-ideological space. The authors assume that the evolution of the international system goes in the direction of a new bipolarity, where Eurasia will play a role of a new geostrategic and economic pole, while the West, probably limited by "Greater America" will become another one. In this new international reality, the U.S. will drift from the status of superpower to the position of an important global center of power. However, at the moment the contours of Greater Eurasia are only beginning to take shape.
For preparing the report there were used materials, statistics reports and databases, research wo... more For preparing the report there were used materials, statistics reports and databases, research works of the Eurasian Development Bank, works of research institutes and centers of the
Journal of Siberian Federal University, 2015
Полис, 2019
Глубинная, хотя и почти никогда не называемая причина идущей геополитической революции – небывало... more Глубинная, хотя и почти никогда не называемая причина идущей геополитической революции – небывало быстрого сдвига от Запада и от Европы к Китаю и Азии – коренное изменение военно-политического соотношения сил, на котором в итоге базируется миропорядок. Почти полтысячелетия Европа-Запад обладали военным превосходством, на котором основывалось их доминирование в мировой экономике, политике, идейной сфере. Превосходство стало уходить после обретения СССР, затем Китаем ядерного оружия, что по нарастающей начало лишать Запад возможности навязывать свои интересы военной силой. Процесс потери превосходства завершился в 2010-х годах. Россия, обеспечивая интересы своей безопасности, стала “повивальной бабкой” истории, во многом обеспечила основу для нынешнего исторического сдвига, расширения свободы выбора для стран и народов.
Instead of predicted end of ideology and ideological competition due to presumed 15-20 years ago ... more Instead of predicted end of ideology and ideological competition due to presumed 15-20 years ago final victory of Western liberalism and democracy the world is sliding into the new ideological struggle. There are many reasons for it: appeal of the West is declining, the democratization and renationalization of international polities push to the fore new leaders and most of them profess traditional and nationalist values. New post-European values did not get hold in Russian society seeking old values it has been cut off during the 70 years of the Communist experiment and also due to the fact that the West pursued a neo-Weimar policy of geopolitical expansion, which provoked defensive reaction to everything coming from the West. The intensity of the new ideological struggle is exacerbated by the moral and ideological vacuum created by modernization, which pushes aside many traditional religious and moral values. Author concludes that mutual resentment between Russia and Europe is quite strong right now, but it's better to build good-neighborly relations while understanding that we are different. And it's needed to try hard to avoid a new systemic military-political confrontation that is desired by many forces.
Полис. Политические исследования
Глубинная, хотя и почти никогда не называемая причина идущей геополитической революции – небывало... more Глубинная, хотя и почти никогда не называемая причина идущей геополитической революции – небывало быстрого сдвига от Запада и от Европы к Китаю и Азии – коренное изменение военно-политического соотношения сил, на котором в итоге базируется миропорядок. Почти полтысячелетия Европа-Запад обладали военным превосходством, на котором основывалось их доминирование в мировой экономике, политике, идейной сфере. Превосходство стало уходить после обретения СССР, затем Китаем ядерного оружия, что по нарастающей начало лишать Запад возможности навязывать свои интересы военной силой. Процесс потери превосходства завершился в 2010-х годах. Россия, обеспечивая интересы своей безопасности, стала “повивальной бабкой” истории, во многом обеспечила основу для нынешнего исторического сдвига, расширения свободы выбора для стран и народов.
Сергей КАРАГАНОВ ... За последний год в международных отношениях отчетливо проявились несколько т... more Сергей КАРАГАНОВ ... За последний год в международных отношениях отчетливо проявились несколько тенденций, которые позволяют говорить о начале нового политического этапа. Период, сменивший эпоху холодной войны, закончен. Грядущие события едва ли возможно предсказать, однако основные факторы, которые определят будущее развитие, очевидны уже сейчас. Сразу оговорюсь: за рамками данной статьи остались очень существенные моменты, такие, как начавшееся распространение ядерного оружия, прогрессирующее ослабление систем международного управления, расширение круга падающих или несостоявшихся государств и др. ... АЗИЯ: ПРОРЫВ В ЦЕНТР МИРОВОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ ... Центр международной политики неуклонно смещается в Азию. Китайская Народная Республика, ВВП которой вырос в четыре раза со времени начала экономических реформ в 1978 году, продолжает наращивать свой потенциал. Ежегодные темпы роста китайской экономики колеблются в пределах 8,5 - 10 %, причем, по некоторым предположениям, истинные масштабы сво...
World economy brief, 2019
International Journal of Dynamical Systems and Differential Equations, 2015
The Lorenz model is of interest because of its abundant bifurcations and dynamical phenomena, due... more The Lorenz model is of interest because of its abundant bifurcations and dynamical phenomena, due largely to the presence of critical sets or nondefinition sets. The model is investigated as a three-parameter quadratic family. This article further develops and refines a study of its basins of attraction, and it is explained by using two types of nonclassical singularity sets. This has an important impact on the number of preimages and shows the essential role played by the vanishing denominator in the inverses. A deeper analysis of the global dynamic properties of the model in the parameter ranges where three steady states exist, reveals the role of symmetry with an interesting and complex dynamic structure.
Russia in Global Affairs, 2021
The problems of social and economic development of Siberia and the Far East are discusses in arti... more The problems of social and economic development of Siberia and the Far East are discusses in article. The analysis and evaluation of the federal government activities in development and implementations of plans for the Siberian and Far Eastern territories development are conducted. The article shows the unjustified transformation of the development basic tools (dissemination of TPD ideas throughout the country and others) and delaying already prepared decision-making processes (funds and other development institutions establishment).
Among the reasons for the ongoing geopolitical revolution, unprecedented rapid change in the glob... more Among the reasons for the ongoing geopolitical revolution, unprecedented rapid change in the global balance of power away from the West and Europe and toward China and Asia—profound yet rarely noted shift of the military-political foundation on which world order is ultimately based. The world was “multipolar” until the sixteenth century, when Europe started to achieve military superiority that served as the basis of its economic, political, and cultural expansion and its ability to channel global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to its own advantage. This situation began to change after the Soviet Union, and later China, developed nuclear weapons. This increasingly deprived the West of its ability to impose its interests through military force. Seeking to ensure its fundamental security interests, Russia has become a sort of “midwife of history” by largely ushering in the current shift in the global balance of power and by expanding the freedom of choice available to the world’s countri...
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Papers by Sergey Karaganov