Cost-benefit analysis is probably the most comprehensive method of economic evaluation for public... more Cost-benefit analysis is probably the most comprehensive method of economic evaluation for public projects. Social discount rate, which makes it possible to compare the social benefits and costs extended over a period of time, has a key role in the allocation of public resources between alternative ends via cost-benefit analysis. Public sector needs to use the correct social discount rate in order to achieve a fair allocation of the fiscal burden between generations. While a high social discount rate may place a heavy fiscal burden on future generations, a low social discount rate may cause unfeasible projects to be approved. However, although social discount rate is a crucial parameter for public project appraisals, there is a lack of updated social discount rate for Turkey. In this study, the social rate of time preference approach is used to estimate this social discount rate. To this aim, both the personal taxation and the food demand methods are employed in order to estimate the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, which is a critical determinant of the social rate of time preference based on the Ramsey formula. The overall results show that the social discount rate estimated using the personal tax method is 4.88%, whereas it is 4.41% using the food demand method. Since the level of tax evasion is very high in Turkey, we recommend that the value indicated by the food demand method should be used employing the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration procedure.
Purpose: This paper aims to test the accuracy of some Machine Learning (ML) models in forecasting... more Purpose: This paper aims to test the accuracy of some Machine Learning (ML) models in forecasting inflation in the case of Turkey and to give a new and also complementary approach to time series models. Methods: This paper forecasts inflation in Turkey by using time-series and machine learning (ML) models. The data is spanning from the period 2006:M1 to 2020:M12. Findings: According to our findings, although the linear-based Ridge and Lasso regression algorithms perform worse than the VAR model, the multilayer perceptron algorithm gives satisfactory results that are close to the results of the time series algorithm. In this direction, non-linear machine learning models are thought to be a reliable complementary method for estimating inflation in emerging economies. It is also predicted that it can be considered as an alternative method as the amount of data and computational power increase. Implication: The findings are expected to be useful as a guide for central banks and policy-...
This study aims to investigate the relationship between indirect taxation and foreign direct inve... more This study aims to investigate the relationship between indirect taxation and foreign direct investments in Turkey. We benefit from a quarterly data set covering the period 2006:Q1-2016:Q1 and employ bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al. (2001). We also employ error correction model in order to determine short-run coefficients. Our results obtained from bounds test confirm the cointegration relationship between total indirect taxes and foreign direct investments. We also expand our analysis by focusing on the effects on sub-sectors. While the bounds testing approach confirms the cointegration relationship between indirect taxes and foreign direct investments in manufacturing sector, we find no evidence for a cointegration relationship in the tertiary sector. The test result is also inconclusive for agricultural sector. Moreover, the results of error correction models suggest no statistically significant effects in the short-run.
Bu calisma; ekonomik gelismislik duzeyi ile farkli kamu harcamalari arasindaki iliskiyi; Turkiye ... more Bu calisma; ekonomik gelismislik duzeyi ile farkli kamu harcamalari arasindaki iliskiyi; Turkiye acisindan sinamayi amaclamaktadir. Bu amacla; merkezi yonetim butce harcamalari ile mahalli idareler butce harcamalarinin gelir duzeyi ile olan iliskisi ayri olarak ele alinmistir. Calismada 2007:1-2015:3 donemi; ucer aylik veri setinden yararlanilmistir. Ayrica ele alinan serilerin ayni dereceden duragan olmamalari nedeniyle Pesaran, Shin ve Smith’in sinir testi yaklasimi ve hata duzeltme modeli analiz yontemi olarak tercih edilmistir. Calismanin bulgularina gore; ekonomik gelismislik duzeyi ile merkezi yonetim butce harcamalari arasinda hem kisa donem hem de uzun donemde istatistiksel olarak anlamli bir iliskinin varligina rastlanmamistir. Bununla birlikte mahalli idareler butce harcamalari ile ekonomik gelismislik duzeyi arasinda uzun donemde pozitif bir iliskinin var oldugu gozlemlenmistir
Handbook of Research on Public Finance in Europe and the MENA Region, 2016
The aim of this chapter is to investigate shadow economy on an EU-27 and Turkey basis. For this p... more The aim of this chapter is to investigate shadow economy on an EU-27 and Turkey basis. For this purpose, firstly the definition, causes\ and consequences of shadow economy together with its relationship with tax evasion are discussed. In addition, the causes of shadow economy are examined for EU-27 during the period 2003-2012. It was done both statistically and empirically by employing scatter plot diagrams and the random effects model. While empirical findings confirm the effects of taxes, income level, trade and population on the shadow economy, statistical findings mention the effects of governance related indicators. Another main finding of this chapter is about Turkey. Accordingly, shadow economy in Turkey is observed to be higher than in the EU-27 and taking into consideration the comparative statistical findings about the causes of shadow economy, the main reasons of shadow economy in Turkey are thought to be governance related.
The aim of this chapter is to investigate shadow economy on an EU-27 and Turkey basis. For this p... more The aim of this chapter is to investigate shadow economy on an EU-27 and Turkey basis. For this purpose, firstly the definition, causes\ and consequences of shadow economy together with its relationship with tax evasion are discussed. In addition, the causes of shadow economy are examined for EU-27 during the period 2003-2012. It was done both statistically and empirically by employing scatter plot diagrams and the random effects model. While empirical findings confirm the effects of taxes, income level, trade and population on the shadow economy, statistical findings mention the effects of governance related indicators. Another main finding of this chapter is about Turkey. Accordingly, shadow economy in Turkey is observed to be higher than in the EU-27 and taking into consideration the comparative statistical findings about the causes of shadow economy, the main reasons of shadow economy in Turkey are thought to be governance related.
The government revenues and government expenditures are widely used as a means of public finance ... more The government revenues and government expenditures are widely used as a means of public finance and eliminating budget deficits. However a change in the level of government expenditures or government revenues will create different effects on the economy depending on the relationship between the aggregates in question. The aim of this study is to exhibit the relationship between government expenditures and government revenues for Turkey in order to serve to determine the favorable policy. For that purpose, the relationship is tested by using Central Government Budget Revenue Realization and Central Government Budget Expenditure series from the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Finance with 2006 January-2015 April monthly data. In addition, by employing government revenues and expenditures in a disaggregated manner, the relationships about general government revenues, the revenues of regulatory and supervisory foundations, the revenues of private budgeted foundations, interest payments and non-interest payments are tried to be presented. Granger causality test is preferred as we have stationary series and also as this methodology is reliable, simple and widely used in literature.
The aim of this study is to test the possible non-linear effect of environmental policy stringenc... more The aim of this study is to test the possible non-linear effect of environmental policy stringency on carbon emissions and thus make policy recommendations for emission reduction. For this purpose data for the period 1995–2015 for selected emerging countries were used. According to the findings obtained from fixed-effects panel threshold regressions environmental policy stringency has no significant effect on the relationship between gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions. However, it has statistically significant effect if the share of the service sector and the foreign direct investment are taken as regime-dependent variables. Accordingly, in the high policy stringency regime an increase in the share of the service sector and the foreign direct investment reduce emission levels. In the case of using market-based environmental regulations the threshold effect faced by foreign direct investment is much more pronounced. In order to reduce carbon emissions it i...
Bu calismanin amaci; gelismekte olan ulkelerde kamu transfer harcamalarinin iktisadi buyume uzeri... more Bu calismanin amaci; gelismekte olan ulkelerde kamu transfer harcamalarinin iktisadi buyume uzerine etkisini ampirik olarak incelemektir. Bu amacla calismada, 27 gelismekte olan ulke icin 1990-2011 verileri uzun donem etkilerinin gozlemlenebilmesi icin 5 er yillik ortalamalari alinarak panel veri analizi kullanilarak analiz edilmistir. Literaturdeki diger calismalardan farkli olarak; dinamik panel veri yontemi kullanilmasi, transfer harcamalarindan faiz giderlerinin ayristirilmis olmasi, icsel nitelikteki degiskenlerin goz onune alinmasi ve gelir butcesinin ekonometrik modele dahil edilmesi calismanin ozgun katkilarini olusturmaktadir. Uygulama kisminda elde edilen sonuclara gore gelismekte olan ulkelerde; transfer harcamalarinin iktisadi buyume uzerinde uzun donemli etkisi pozitif yonde ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli bulunurken kisa donemde iliskinin anlamsiz oldugu sonucuna ulasilmistir.
Bu calismada, Politik Makroekonomi literaturunden hareketle, gelismekte olan ulkelerde politik is... more Bu calismada, Politik Makroekonomi literaturunden hareketle, gelismekte olan ulkelerde politik istikrarin ekonomik buyume uzerine olan etkisi, konu ile ilgili tartismalarin nispeten daha yogun tartisildigi 1986 ile 2003 arasi doneme ait veri seti kullanilarak incelenmektedir. Panel veri analizi yapilan bu sorgulamada, konu ile ilgili literaturde siklikla elde edilen ekonomik buyume ve makroekonomik performans uzerinde politik istikrarin pozitif rol oynadigi sonucu teyit edilmistir. Panel veri analizinden elde edilen diger bir bulgu ise veri seti icerisinde yer alan 19 gelismekte olan ulke temelinde, tahmin edilen ulke etki katsayilarinin cogu Asya ulkeleri icin genellikle pozitif, buna karsilik Latin Amerika ulkeleri icin negatif bulunmasidir.
This study aims to investigate the relationship between indirect taxation and foreign direct inve... more This study aims to investigate the relationship between indirect taxation and foreign direct investments in Turkey. We benefit from a quarterly data set covering the period 2006:Q1-2016:Q1 and employ bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al. (2001). We also employ error correction model in order to determine short-run coefficients. Our results obtained from bounds test confirm the cointegration relationship between total indirect taxes and foreign direct investments. We also expand our analysis by focusing on the effects on sub-sectors. While the bounds testing approach confirms the cointegration relationship between indirect taxes and foreign direct investments in manufacturing sector, we find no evidence for a cointegration relationship in the tertiary sector. The test result is also inconclusive for agricultural sector. Moreover, the results of error correction models suggest no statistically significant effects in the short-run.
Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2015
The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between public transfer payments and economi... more The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between public transfer payments and economic growth with a dynamic method for developing countries. The econometric model is constituted by eliminating some previous deficiencies about model spesification, sample and method. The relationship is tested with system-GMM method for 27 developing countries (1990-2011). As a conclusion, the long run effect of public transfer payments on economic growth is found to be positive and statistically significant. In this context, public transfer payments are productive expenditures in developing countries in the long run and serve to eliminate the problem of low income levels.
From the 1980s to onwards trade liberalization policies have been widely used in many countries. ... more From the 1980s to onwards trade liberalization policies have been widely used in many countries. This process has significant impacts on many economic aspects one of which is on the labour market. However, the direction of the relationship between trade reforms and the labour market is controversial. This study aims to analyse the effects of a specific trade reform of import tariff changes on the formal and informal labour market for Turkey. For that purpose, we benefit from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model that relies on nonlinear simultaneous equations. We construct an updated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which is compatible with our model. Our findings indicate that while there is a positive relationship between formal labour employment in total and import tariff rates, the negative relationship occurs between informal employment and tariff rates.
Cost-benefit analysis is probably the most comprehensive method of economic evaluation for public... more Cost-benefit analysis is probably the most comprehensive method of economic evaluation for public projects. Social discount rate, which makes it possible to compare the social benefits and costs extended over a period of time, has a key role in the allocation of public resources between alternative ends via cost-benefit analysis. Public sector needs to use the correct social discount rate in order to achieve a fair allocation of the fiscal burden between generations. While a high social discount rate may place a heavy fiscal burden on future generations, a low social discount rate may cause unfeasible projects to be approved. However, although social discount rate is a crucial parameter for public project appraisals, there is a lack of updated social discount rate for Turkey. In this study, the social rate of time preference approach is used to estimate this social discount rate. To this aim, both the personal taxation and the food demand methods are employed in order to estimate the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, which is a critical determinant of the social rate of time preference based on the Ramsey formula. The overall results show that the social discount rate estimated using the personal tax method is 4.88%, whereas it is 4.41% using the food demand method. Since the level of tax evasion is very high in Turkey, we recommend that the value indicated by the food demand method should be used employing the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration procedure.
Purpose: This paper aims to test the accuracy of some Machine Learning (ML) models in forecasting... more Purpose: This paper aims to test the accuracy of some Machine Learning (ML) models in forecasting inflation in the case of Turkey and to give a new and also complementary approach to time series models. Methods: This paper forecasts inflation in Turkey by using time-series and machine learning (ML) models. The data is spanning from the period 2006:M1 to 2020:M12. Findings: According to our findings, although the linear-based Ridge and Lasso regression algorithms perform worse than the VAR model, the multilayer perceptron algorithm gives satisfactory results that are close to the results of the time series algorithm. In this direction, non-linear machine learning models are thought to be a reliable complementary method for estimating inflation in emerging economies. It is also predicted that it can be considered as an alternative method as the amount of data and computational power increase. Implication: The findings are expected to be useful as a guide for central banks and policy-...
This study aims to investigate the relationship between indirect taxation and foreign direct inve... more This study aims to investigate the relationship between indirect taxation and foreign direct investments in Turkey. We benefit from a quarterly data set covering the period 2006:Q1-2016:Q1 and employ bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al. (2001). We also employ error correction model in order to determine short-run coefficients. Our results obtained from bounds test confirm the cointegration relationship between total indirect taxes and foreign direct investments. We also expand our analysis by focusing on the effects on sub-sectors. While the bounds testing approach confirms the cointegration relationship between indirect taxes and foreign direct investments in manufacturing sector, we find no evidence for a cointegration relationship in the tertiary sector. The test result is also inconclusive for agricultural sector. Moreover, the results of error correction models suggest no statistically significant effects in the short-run.
Bu calisma; ekonomik gelismislik duzeyi ile farkli kamu harcamalari arasindaki iliskiyi; Turkiye ... more Bu calisma; ekonomik gelismislik duzeyi ile farkli kamu harcamalari arasindaki iliskiyi; Turkiye acisindan sinamayi amaclamaktadir. Bu amacla; merkezi yonetim butce harcamalari ile mahalli idareler butce harcamalarinin gelir duzeyi ile olan iliskisi ayri olarak ele alinmistir. Calismada 2007:1-2015:3 donemi; ucer aylik veri setinden yararlanilmistir. Ayrica ele alinan serilerin ayni dereceden duragan olmamalari nedeniyle Pesaran, Shin ve Smith’in sinir testi yaklasimi ve hata duzeltme modeli analiz yontemi olarak tercih edilmistir. Calismanin bulgularina gore; ekonomik gelismislik duzeyi ile merkezi yonetim butce harcamalari arasinda hem kisa donem hem de uzun donemde istatistiksel olarak anlamli bir iliskinin varligina rastlanmamistir. Bununla birlikte mahalli idareler butce harcamalari ile ekonomik gelismislik duzeyi arasinda uzun donemde pozitif bir iliskinin var oldugu gozlemlenmistir
Handbook of Research on Public Finance in Europe and the MENA Region, 2016
The aim of this chapter is to investigate shadow economy on an EU-27 and Turkey basis. For this p... more The aim of this chapter is to investigate shadow economy on an EU-27 and Turkey basis. For this purpose, firstly the definition, causes\ and consequences of shadow economy together with its relationship with tax evasion are discussed. In addition, the causes of shadow economy are examined for EU-27 during the period 2003-2012. It was done both statistically and empirically by employing scatter plot diagrams and the random effects model. While empirical findings confirm the effects of taxes, income level, trade and population on the shadow economy, statistical findings mention the effects of governance related indicators. Another main finding of this chapter is about Turkey. Accordingly, shadow economy in Turkey is observed to be higher than in the EU-27 and taking into consideration the comparative statistical findings about the causes of shadow economy, the main reasons of shadow economy in Turkey are thought to be governance related.
The aim of this chapter is to investigate shadow economy on an EU-27 and Turkey basis. For this p... more The aim of this chapter is to investigate shadow economy on an EU-27 and Turkey basis. For this purpose, firstly the definition, causes\ and consequences of shadow economy together with its relationship with tax evasion are discussed. In addition, the causes of shadow economy are examined for EU-27 during the period 2003-2012. It was done both statistically and empirically by employing scatter plot diagrams and the random effects model. While empirical findings confirm the effects of taxes, income level, trade and population on the shadow economy, statistical findings mention the effects of governance related indicators. Another main finding of this chapter is about Turkey. Accordingly, shadow economy in Turkey is observed to be higher than in the EU-27 and taking into consideration the comparative statistical findings about the causes of shadow economy, the main reasons of shadow economy in Turkey are thought to be governance related.
The government revenues and government expenditures are widely used as a means of public finance ... more The government revenues and government expenditures are widely used as a means of public finance and eliminating budget deficits. However a change in the level of government expenditures or government revenues will create different effects on the economy depending on the relationship between the aggregates in question. The aim of this study is to exhibit the relationship between government expenditures and government revenues for Turkey in order to serve to determine the favorable policy. For that purpose, the relationship is tested by using Central Government Budget Revenue Realization and Central Government Budget Expenditure series from the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Finance with 2006 January-2015 April monthly data. In addition, by employing government revenues and expenditures in a disaggregated manner, the relationships about general government revenues, the revenues of regulatory and supervisory foundations, the revenues of private budgeted foundations, interest payments and non-interest payments are tried to be presented. Granger causality test is preferred as we have stationary series and also as this methodology is reliable, simple and widely used in literature.
The aim of this study is to test the possible non-linear effect of environmental policy stringenc... more The aim of this study is to test the possible non-linear effect of environmental policy stringency on carbon emissions and thus make policy recommendations for emission reduction. For this purpose data for the period 1995–2015 for selected emerging countries were used. According to the findings obtained from fixed-effects panel threshold regressions environmental policy stringency has no significant effect on the relationship between gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions. However, it has statistically significant effect if the share of the service sector and the foreign direct investment are taken as regime-dependent variables. Accordingly, in the high policy stringency regime an increase in the share of the service sector and the foreign direct investment reduce emission levels. In the case of using market-based environmental regulations the threshold effect faced by foreign direct investment is much more pronounced. In order to reduce carbon emissions it i...
Bu calismanin amaci; gelismekte olan ulkelerde kamu transfer harcamalarinin iktisadi buyume uzeri... more Bu calismanin amaci; gelismekte olan ulkelerde kamu transfer harcamalarinin iktisadi buyume uzerine etkisini ampirik olarak incelemektir. Bu amacla calismada, 27 gelismekte olan ulke icin 1990-2011 verileri uzun donem etkilerinin gozlemlenebilmesi icin 5 er yillik ortalamalari alinarak panel veri analizi kullanilarak analiz edilmistir. Literaturdeki diger calismalardan farkli olarak; dinamik panel veri yontemi kullanilmasi, transfer harcamalarindan faiz giderlerinin ayristirilmis olmasi, icsel nitelikteki degiskenlerin goz onune alinmasi ve gelir butcesinin ekonometrik modele dahil edilmesi calismanin ozgun katkilarini olusturmaktadir. Uygulama kisminda elde edilen sonuclara gore gelismekte olan ulkelerde; transfer harcamalarinin iktisadi buyume uzerinde uzun donemli etkisi pozitif yonde ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli bulunurken kisa donemde iliskinin anlamsiz oldugu sonucuna ulasilmistir.
Bu calismada, Politik Makroekonomi literaturunden hareketle, gelismekte olan ulkelerde politik is... more Bu calismada, Politik Makroekonomi literaturunden hareketle, gelismekte olan ulkelerde politik istikrarin ekonomik buyume uzerine olan etkisi, konu ile ilgili tartismalarin nispeten daha yogun tartisildigi 1986 ile 2003 arasi doneme ait veri seti kullanilarak incelenmektedir. Panel veri analizi yapilan bu sorgulamada, konu ile ilgili literaturde siklikla elde edilen ekonomik buyume ve makroekonomik performans uzerinde politik istikrarin pozitif rol oynadigi sonucu teyit edilmistir. Panel veri analizinden elde edilen diger bir bulgu ise veri seti icerisinde yer alan 19 gelismekte olan ulke temelinde, tahmin edilen ulke etki katsayilarinin cogu Asya ulkeleri icin genellikle pozitif, buna karsilik Latin Amerika ulkeleri icin negatif bulunmasidir.
This study aims to investigate the relationship between indirect taxation and foreign direct inve... more This study aims to investigate the relationship between indirect taxation and foreign direct investments in Turkey. We benefit from a quarterly data set covering the period 2006:Q1-2016:Q1 and employ bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al. (2001). We also employ error correction model in order to determine short-run coefficients. Our results obtained from bounds test confirm the cointegration relationship between total indirect taxes and foreign direct investments. We also expand our analysis by focusing on the effects on sub-sectors. While the bounds testing approach confirms the cointegration relationship between indirect taxes and foreign direct investments in manufacturing sector, we find no evidence for a cointegration relationship in the tertiary sector. The test result is also inconclusive for agricultural sector. Moreover, the results of error correction models suggest no statistically significant effects in the short-run.
Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2015
The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between public transfer payments and economi... more The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between public transfer payments and economic growth with a dynamic method for developing countries. The econometric model is constituted by eliminating some previous deficiencies about model spesification, sample and method. The relationship is tested with system-GMM method for 27 developing countries (1990-2011). As a conclusion, the long run effect of public transfer payments on economic growth is found to be positive and statistically significant. In this context, public transfer payments are productive expenditures in developing countries in the long run and serve to eliminate the problem of low income levels.
From the 1980s to onwards trade liberalization policies have been widely used in many countries. ... more From the 1980s to onwards trade liberalization policies have been widely used in many countries. This process has significant impacts on many economic aspects one of which is on the labour market. However, the direction of the relationship between trade reforms and the labour market is controversial. This study aims to analyse the effects of a specific trade reform of import tariff changes on the formal and informal labour market for Turkey. For that purpose, we benefit from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model that relies on nonlinear simultaneous equations. We construct an updated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which is compatible with our model. Our findings indicate that while there is a positive relationship between formal labour employment in total and import tariff rates, the negative relationship occurs between informal employment and tariff rates.
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