Papers by Hela Ben Hassine Khalladi
To assess to which extent public debt in Tunisia is sustainable in the medium term, we apply a st... more To assess to which extent public debt in Tunisia is sustainable in the medium term, we apply a stochastic debt sustainability analysis (SDSA), developped by Celasun, Debrun and Ostry in 2006. In contrast with the conventional debt sustainability analysis (DSA), this methodology explicitly takes into account the uncertainty characterizing the emerging markets, i.e the risks stemming from the interaction of the endogenous fiscal and macroeconomic shocks (related to growth rates, interest rates and exchange rates). Fan Charts are then derived from the projected debt paths, under a baseline and alternative policy scenarios. Our baseline projections suggest that Tunisian public debt will be unsustainable, in average, over the whole period (2018- 2022). When comparing the baseline projections with alternative policy scenarios, we can ascertain the high importance of a timely and continuous fiscal policy response to debt accumulation; otherwise, Tunisian public debt will get out of control.
The main contribution of this paper is to analyze whether the absence of restructuring programs d... more The main contribution of this paper is to analyze whether the absence of restructuring programs during some financial crisis episodes was justified. In other words, was the countries' debt sustainable, allowing an intervention through only an IMF bailout ? Using a non- parametric methodology (Classification And Regression Tree or CART), the fiscal and the external solvency of countries facing financial troubles since the 80's was assessed. It is found that, in some crisis episodes, like the one faced by Argentina in 1995, Brazil in 1999 and Turkey in 2001, a debt restructuring plan was necessary while the countries clearly exhibited solvency problems. This can explain the inefficiency of the IMF intervention during some crises.
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Papers by Hela Ben Hassine Khalladi