PRONOSTICO

Prom Movil 3
Tiempo Demanda periodos Error Erros Abs MSE t MAD t Sesgo t TS t % Error
1 10
2 14
3 19
4 26 14.33 11.67 11.67 136.11 11.67 11.67 1.0 45%
5 31 19.67 11.33 11.33 132.28 11.50 23.00 2.0 37%
6 35 25.33 9.67 9.67 119.33 10.89 32.67 3.0 28%
7 39 30.67 8.33 8.33 106.86 10.25 41.00 4.0 21%
8 44 35.00 9.00 9.00 101.69 10.00 50.00 5.0 20%
9 51 39.33 11.67 11.67 107.43 10.28 61.67 6.0 23%
10 55 44.67 10.33 10.33 107.33 10.29 72.00 7.0 19%
11 61 50.00 11.00 11.00 109.04 10.38 83.00 8.0 18%
12 54 55.67 -1.67 1.67 97.23 9.41 81.33 8.6 3%
mad 10.52

PRONOSTICO MAD
PMS 44.67 10.52
PMP 47.70 8.03
Exp 45.23 12.20

Prom Movil 4
Tiempo Demanda periodos Error Erros Abs MSE t MAD t Sesgo t TS t % Error
1 10
2 14
3 19
4 26
5 31 17.25 13.75 13.75 189.06 13.75 13.75 1.0 44%
6 35 22.50 12.50 12.50 172.66 13.13 26.25 2.0 36%
7 39 27.75 11.25 11.25 157.29 12.50 37.50 3.0 29%
8 44 32.75 11.25 11.25 149.61 12.19 48.75 4.0 26%
 9 51 37.25 13.75 13.75 157.50 12.50 62.50 5.0 27%
10 55 42.25 12.75 12.75 158.34 12.54 75.25 6.0 23%
11 61 47.25 13.75 13.75 162.73 12.71 89.00 7.0 23%
12 54 52.75 1.25 1.25 142.59 11.28 90.25 8.0 2%
MAPE t

45%
41%
36%
33%
30%
29%
28%
26%
24%

MAPE t

44%
40%
36%
34%
32%
31%
30%
26%
 PRONOSTICO
Coeficientes Tiempo Demanda PMP Error Error Abs MSE MAD t Sesgo t TS t
0.1 1 10
0.3 2 14
0.6 3 19
Suma 1.0 4 26 16.6 9.4 9.4 88.36 9.40 9.40 1.0
5 31 22.7 8.3 8.3 78.63 8.85 17.70 2.0
6 35 28.3 6.7 6.7 67.38 8.13 24.40 3.0
7 39 32.9 6.1 6.1 59.84 7.63 30.50 4.0
8 44 37.0 7.0 7.0 57.67 7.50 37.50 5.0
9 51 41.6 9.4 9.4 62.79 7.82 46.90 6.0
10 55 47.7 7.3 7.3 61.43 7.74 54.20 7.0
11 61 52.7 8.3 8.3 62.36 7.81 62.50 8.0
12 54 58.2 -4.2 4.2 57.39 7.41 58.30 7.9

mad 8.03
% Error MAPE t

36% 36%
27% 31%
19% 27%
16% 24%
16% 23%
18% 22%
13% 21%
14% 20%
8% 19%
 Alfa 0.5

Tiempo Demanda Pronóstico Error Error Abs MSE MAD t Sesgo t TS t

1 10 36.58 -26.58 26.58 706.67 26.58 -26.58 -1.0
2 14 23.29 -9.29 9.29 396.50 17.94 -35.87 -2.0
3 19 18.65 0.35 0.35 264.38 12.08 -35.52 -2.9
4 26 18.82 7.18 7.18 211.16 10.85 -28.34 -2.6
5 31 22.41 8.59 8.59 183.68 10.40 -19.76 -1.9
6 35 26.71 8.29 8.29 164.53 10.05 -11.46 -1.1
7 39 30.85 8.15 8.15 150.51 9.78 -3.31 -0.3
8 44 34.93 9.07 9.07 141.99 9.69 5.76 0.6
9 51 39.46 11.54 11.54 141.00 9.89 17.30 1.7
10 55 45.23 9.77 9.77 136.44 9.88 27.06 2.7
11 61 50.12 10.88 10.88 134.81 9.97 37.95 3.8
12 54 55.56 -1.56 1.56 123.78 9.27 36.39 3.9

MAD 12.20

F t + 1 = α * At + (1- α) * F t
% Error MAPE t
266% 266%
66% 166%
2% 111%
28% 90%
28% 78%
24% 69%
21% 62%
21% 57%
23% 53%
18% 49%
18% 47%
3% 43%
 x y
Tiempo Demanda pronostico Error Error Abs MSE MAD t
1 10 11.06 -1.06 1.06 1.13 1.06
2 14 15.70 -1.70 1.70 2.02 1.38
3 19 20.34 -1.34 1.34 1.95 1.37
4 26 24.98 1.02 1.02 1.72 1.28
5 31 29.62 1.38 1.38 1.75 1.30
6 35 34.26 0.74 0.74 1.55 1.21
7 39 38.90 0.10 0.10 1.33 1.05
8 44 43.54 0.46 0.46 1.19 0.97
9 51 48.18 2.82 2.82 1.94 1.18
10 55 52.82 2.18 2.18 2.22 1.28
11 61 57.46 3.54 3.54 3.16 1.48
12 54 62.10 -8.10 8.10 8.36 2.04
1.30
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.9840866422
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.96842651935
R^2 ajustado 0.96526917128
Error típico 3.16811401104
Observaciones 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 3078.5472028 3078.5472028 306.72149518 7.825394E-09
Residuos 10 100.36946387 10.0369463869
Total 11 3178.9166667

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción 6.4242 1.9498 3.2948 0.0081 2.0797 10.7688
X Tiempo 4.6399 0.2649 17.5135 0.0000 4.0496 5.2302

70

Resultados de datos de probabilidad 60

Percentil Demanda
4.16666666666667 10 50
12.5 14
20.8333333333333 19 40
29.1666666666667 26
37.5 31
45.8333333333333 35 30
54.1666666666667 39
62.5 44 20
70.8333333333333 51
79.1666666666667 54
87.5 55 10
95.8333333333333 61
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
 Sesgo t TS t % Error MAPE t
-1.06 -1.0 11% 11%
-2.77 -2.0 12% 11%
-4.11 -3.0 7% 10%
-3.10 -2.4 4% 8%
-1.72 -1.3 4% 8%
-0.98 -0.8 2% 7%
-0.89 -0.8 0% 6%
-0.43 -0.4 1% 5%
2.39 2.0 6% 5%
4.57 3.6 4% 5%
8.10 5.5 6% 5%
0.00 0.0 15% 6%

70

60

50

40
Column C
30 Linear (Column C)

20

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
2.07972953 10.7687553
 4.04955708 5.2301632

Demanda
Linear (Demanda)

6 8 10 12 14
Alfa 0.50
Beta 0.10
x y y x
Tiempo Demanda Nivel Tendencia Pronóstico Error Error Abs MSE MAD t Sesgo t
0 6.42 4.64
1 10 10.53 4.59 11.06 -1.06 1.06 1.13 1.06 -1.06
2 14 14.56 4.53 15.12 -1.12 1.12 1.19 1.09 -2.18
3 19 19.05 4.53 19.09 -0.09 0.09 0.80 0.76 -2.27
4 26 24.79 4.65 23.57 2.43 2.43 2.07 1.18 0.16
5 31 30.22 4.73 29.43 1.57 1.57 2.15 1.25 1.72
6 35 34.97 4.73 34.94 0.06 0.06 1.79 1.05 1.78
7 39 39.35 4.69 39.70 -0.70 0.70 1.61 1.00 1.08
8 44 44.02 4.69 44.04 -0.04 0.04 1.41 0.88 1.04
9 51 49.86 4.81 48.71 2.29 2.29 1.83 1.04 3.32
10 55 54.83 4.82 54.66 0.34 0.34 1.66 0.97 3.66
11 61 60.33 4.89 59.65 1.35 1.35 1.67 1.00 5.01
12 54 59.61 4.33 65.22 -11.22 11.22 12.02 1.8547 -6.21
1.10
TS t % Error MAPE t

-1.0 11% 11%

-2.0 8% 9%
-3.0 0% 6%
0.1 9% 7%
1.4 5% 7%
1.7 0% 6%
1.1 2% 5%
1.2 0% 4%
3.2 4% 4%
3.8 1% 4%
5.0 2% 4%
-3.3 21% 5%
 x y 1
Tiempo Recibos de
Año-Trim. Periodo Carbón D Desest Proyección Factores Iniciales Factores Finales Proyección Final
1-1 1 2,159 1918.2012 1.126 1.1 2110.02
1-2 2 1,203 1918.40082 0.627 0.8 1534.72
1-3 3 1,094 1603.25 1918.60043 0.570 0.9 1726.74
1-4 4 1,996 1609.63 1918.80004 1.040 1.2 2302.56
2-1 5 2,081 1673.50 1918.99966 1.084 1.1 2110.90
2-2 6 1,332 1788.38 1919.19927 0.694 0.8 1535.36
2-3 7 1,476 1876.50 1919.39888 0.769 0.9 1727.46
2-4 8 2,533 1922.63 1919.59850 1.320 1.2 2303.52
3-1 9 2,249 2005.13 1919.79811 1.171 1.1 2111.78
3-2 10 1,533 2061.25 1919.99773 0.798 0.8 1536.00
3-3 11 1,935 2054.88 1920.19734 1.008 0.9 1728.18
3-4 12 2,523 2057.75 1920.39695 1.314 1.2 2304.48
4-1 13 2,208 2063.50 1920.59657 1.150 1.1 2112.66
4-2 14 1,597 2086.63 1920.79618 0.831 0.8 1536.64
4-3 15 1,917 2162.50 1920.99580 0.998 0.9 1728.90
4-4 16 2,726 2254.75 1921.19541 1.419 1.2 2305.43
5-1 17 2,612 2334.75 1921.39502 1.359 1.1 2113.53
5-2 18 1,931 2327.63 1921.59464 1.005 0.8 1537.28
5-3 19 2,223 2215.00 1921.79425 1.157 0.9 1729.61
5-4 20 2,363 2105.00 1921.99387 1.229 1.2 2306.39
6-1 21 2,074 1993.50 1922.19348 1.079 1.1 2114.41
6-2 22 1,589 1934.75 1922.39309 0.827 0.8 1537.91
6-3 23 1,673 1964.38 1922.59271 0.870 0.9 1730.33
6-4 24 2,443 1994.75 1922.79232 1.271 1.2 2307.35
7-1 25 2,231 1984.25 1922.99193 1.160 1.1 2115.29
7-2 26 1,675 1940.00 1923.19155 0.871 0.8 1538.55
7-3 27 1,503 1864.25 1923.39116 0.781 0.9 1731.05
7-4 28 2,259 1758.88 1923.59078 1.174 1.2 2308.31
8-1 29 1,809 1720.00 1923.79039 0.940 1.1 2116.17
 8-2 30 1,254 1731.13 1923.99000 0.652 0.8 1539.19
8-3 31 1,613 1752.88 1924.18962 0.838 0.9 1731.77
8-4 32 2,238 1796.25 1924.38923 1.163 1.2 2309.27
9-1 33 2,004 1829.25 1924.58885 1.041 1.1 2117.05
9-2 34 1,406 1812.75 1924.78846 0.730 0.8 1539.83
9-3 35 1,725 1924.98807 0.896 0.9 1732.49
9-4 36 1,994 1925.18769 1.036 1.2 2310.23

Trimestre Carbón Trimestre Carbón Trimestre Carbón

1-1 2,159 2-1 2,081 3-1 2,249
1-2 1,203 2-2 1,332 3-2 1,533
1-3 1,094 2-3 1,476 3-3 1,935
1-4 1,996 2-4 2,533 3-4 2,523
4-1 2,208 5-1 2,612 6-1 2,074
4-2 1,597 5-2 1,931 6-2 1,589
4-3 1,917 5-3 2,223 6-3 1,673
4-4 2,726 5-4 2,363 6-4 2,443
7-1 2,231 8-1 1,809 9-1 2,004
7-2 1,675 8-2 1,254 9-2 1,406
7-3 1,503 8-3 1,613 9-3 1,725
7-4 2,259 8-4 2,238 9-4 1,994

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación 0.00495347
Coeficiente de determinac2.45368E-05
R^2 ajustado -0.02938651
Error típico 430.756955
Observaciones 36

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
 Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 154.8005791511 154.800579 0.00083427 0.977126163449795
Residuos 34 6308752.83831 185551.554
Total 35 6308907.638889

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 1918.00159 146.6302089263 13.0805351 7.97461E-15 1620.01315031096 2215.9900243 1620.013150311
Variable X 1 0.1996139 6.910934653005 0.02888378 0.97712616 -13.8450951032088 14.244322902 -13.8450951032
Error Error Abs MSE MAD t Sesgo t TS t % Error MAPE t
48.98 48.98 2,398.91 48.98 48.98 1.0 2% 2%
-331.72 331.72 56,218.75 190.35 -282.74 -1.5 28% 15%
-632.74 632.74 170,932.63 337.81 -915.48 -2.7 58% 29%
-306.56 306.56 151,694.24 330.00 -1222.04 -3.7 15% 26%
-29.90 29.90 121,534.19 269.98 -1251.94 -4.6 1% 21%
-203.36 203.36 108,171.00 258.88 -1455.30 -5.6 15% 20%
-251.46 251.46 101,751.09 257.82 -1706.76 -6.6 17% 20%
229.48 229.48 95,614.94 254.27 -1477.28 -5.8 9% 18%
137.22 137.22 87,083.27 241.27 -1340.06 -5.6 6% 17%
-3.00 3.00 78,375.84 217.44 -1343.05 -6.2 0% 15%
206.82 206.82 75,139.45 216.48 -1136.23 -5.2 11% 15%
218.52 218.52 72,857.21 216.65 -917.71 -4.2 9% 14%
95.34 95.34 67,952.07 207.32 -822.36 -4.0 4% 14%
60.36 60.36 63,358.62 196.82 -762.00 -3.9 4% 13%
188.10 188.10 61,493.58 196.24 -573.90 -2.9 10% 13%
420.57 420.57 68,704.94 210.26 -153.33 -0.7 15% 13%
498.47 498.47 79,279.23 227.21 345.13 1.5 19% 13%
393.72 393.72 83,486.98 236.46 738.86 3.1 20% 14%
493.39 493.39 91,904.98 249.99 1232.24 4.9 22% 14%
56.61 56.61 87,469.95 240.32 1288.85 5.4 2% 13%
-40.41 40.41 83,382.48 230.80 1248.44 5.4 2% 13%
51.09 51.09 79,711.00 222.63 1299.52 5.8 3% 12%
-57.33 57.33 76,388.22 215.44 1242.19 5.8 3% 12%
135.65 135.65 73,972.07 212.12 1377.84 6.5 6% 12%
115.71 115.71 71,548.73 208.26 1493.55 7.2 5% 12%
136.45 136.45 69,512.92 205.50 1629.99 7.9 8% 11%
-228.05 228.05 68,864.58 206.33 1401.94 6.8 15% 12%
-49.31 49.31 66,491.97 200.73 1352.63 6.7 2% 11%
3000
-307.17 307.17 67,452.70 204.40 1045.46 5.1 17% 11%

2500

2000
 3000

-285.19 285.19 67,915.42 207.09 760.27 3.7 23% 12%

2500
-118.77 118.77 66,179.65 204.24 641.50 3.1 7% 12%
-71.27 71.27 64,270.25 200.09 570.23 2.8 3% 11%
2000
-113.05 113.05 62,709.94 197.45 457.19 2.3 6% 11%
-133.83 133.83 61,392.31 195.58 323.36 1.7 10% 11%
-7.49 7.49 59,639.85 190.20 315.87 1.7 0% 11% 1500

-316.23 316.23 60,760.92 193.70 -0.36 0.0 16% 11%

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500
 1000

500

3000

0
2500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Superior 95.0% 2000
Carbón Linear (Carbón)
2215.99002
14.2443229 1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Carbón Linear (Carbón) D Desest Proyección Final

3000

2500

2000
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
5 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Proyección Final
9 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Alfa 0.866105
Beta 0.000000
Gamma 0.186700
MAD 169.64
Recibos de
Año-Trim. Periodo Carbón Nivel Tendencia Factor Proyección Error Error Abs MSE
0 1918.00 0.20
1-1 1 2,159 1956.77 0.20 1.10 2110.02 48.98 48.98 2398.91
1-2 2 1,203 1564.43 0.20 0.80 1565.57 -362.57 362.57 66928.71
1-3 3 1,094 1262.30 0.20 0.90 1408.17 -314.17 314.17 77519.95
1-4 4 1,996 1609.66 0.20 1.20 1514.99 481.01 481.01 115981.73
2-1 5 2,081 1853.13 0.20 1.10 1771.86 309.14 309.14 111899.34
2-2 6 1,332 1700.74 0.20 0.79 1471.93 -139.93 139.93 96512.84
2-3 7 1,476 1658.05 0.20 0.89 1520.26 -44.26 44.26 83005.14
2-4 8 2,533 2038.92 0.20 1.21 2002.28 530.72 530.72 107837.09
3-1 9 2,249 2036.13 0.20 1.10 2252.82 -3.82 3.82 95856.81
3-2 10 1,533 1948.78 0.20 0.79 1613.08 -80.08 80.08 86912.41
3-3 11 1,935 2137.45 0.20 0.89 1740.65 194.35 194.35 82445.04
3-4 12 2,523 2086.24 0.20 1.21 2595.05 -72.05 72.05 76007.27
4-1 13 2,208 2010.40 0.20 1.10 2304.99 -96.99 96.99 70884.22
4-2 14 1,597 2017.57 0.20 0.79 1590.63 6.37 6.37 65823.96
4-3 15 1,917 2124.48 0.20 0.90 1806.68 110.32 110.32 62247.05
4-4 16 2,726 2230.72 0.20 1.21 2577.48 148.52 148.52 59735.20
5-1 17 2,612 2348.71 0.20 1.10 2461.91 150.09 150.09 57546.42
5-2 18 1,931 2428.32 0.20 0.79 1858.46 72.54 72.54 54641.72
5-3 19 2,223 2472.36 0.20 0.90 2177.61 45.39 45.39 51874.29
5-4 20 2,363 2015.82 0.20 1.21 3003.61 -640.61 640.61 69799.78
6-1 21 2,074 1895.34 0.20 1.11 2227.99 -153.99 153.99 67605.11
6-2 22 1,589 1991.60 0.20 0.79 1501.17 87.83 87.83 64882.79
6-3 23 1,673 1881.81 0.20 0.90 1786.92 -113.92 113.92 62626.06
6-4 24 2,443 2005.25 0.20 1.21 2271.28 171.72 171.72 61245.32
7-1 25 2,231 2020.19 0.20 1.10 2212.23 18.77 18.77 58809.59
 7-2 26 1,675 2099.82 0.20 0.79 1602.27 72.73 72.73 56751.14
7-3 27 1,503 1734.64 0.20 0.90 1880.83 -377.83 377.83 59936.59
7-4 28 2,259 1850.63 0.20 1.21 2097.37 161.63 161.63 58728.96
8-1 29 1,809 1667.85 0.20 1.10 2042.09 -233.09 233.09 58577.35
8-2 30 1,254 1591.37 0.20 0.79 1324.29 -70.29 70.29 56789.47
8-3 31 1,613 1782.47 0.20 0.89 1416.78 196.22 196.22 56199.51
8-4 32 2,238 1839.10 0.20 1.21 2159.10 78.90 78.90 54637.82
9-1 33 2,004 1824.38 0.20 1.10 2022.95 -18.95 18.95 52993.00
9-2 34 1,406 1780.28 0.20 0.79 1446.55 -40.55 40.55 51482.74
9-3 35 1,725 1911.57 0.20 0.89 1589.85 135.15 135.15 50533.65
9-4 36 1,994 1680.63 0.20 1.21 2317.50 -323.50 323.50 52036.97

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500
2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Recibos de Carbón Proyección

MAD t Sesgo t TS t % Error MAPE t

48.98 48.98 1.0 2% 2%

205.78 -313.59 -1.5 30% 16%
241.91 -627.76 -2.6 29% 20%
301.68 -146.76 -0.5 24% 21%
303.17 162.39 0.5 15% 20%
275.97 22.46 0.1 11% 18%
242.87 -21.80 -0.1 3% 16%
278.85 508.91 1.8 21% 17%
248.29 505.10 2.0 0% 15%
231.47 425.02 1.8 5% 14%
228.09 619.37 2.7 10% 14%
215.09 547.31 2.5 3% 13%
206.01 450.32 2.2 4% 12%
191.75 456.69 2.4 0% 11%
186.32 567.01 3.0 6% 11%
183.95 715.53 3.9 5% 11%
181.96 865.61 4.8 6% 10%
175.88 938.15 5.3 4% 10%
169.02 983.55 5.8 2% 9%
192.60 342.93 1.8 27% 10%
190.76 188.95 1.0 7% 10%
186.08 276.78 1.5 6% 10%
182.94 162.86 0.9 7% 10%
182.47 334.58 1.8 7% 10%
175.93 353.34 2.0 1% 9%
171.96 426.08 2.5 4% 9%
179.58 48.24 0.3 25% 10%
178.94 209.87 1.2 7% 10%
180.81 -23.23 -0.1 13% 10%
177.12 -93.52 -0.5 6% 10%
177.74 102.70 0.6 12% 10%
174.65 181.60 1.0 4% 10%
169.93 162.65 1.0 1% 9%
166.13 122.11 0.7 3% 9%
165.24 257.25 1.6 8% 9%
169.64 -66.25 -0.4 16% 9%
32 33 34 35 36
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión Gráfico de probabi

Coeficiente d 0.00495347 3000
Coeficiente d 2.45368E-05 2500
R^2 ajustado-0.02938651 2000
1500
Error típico 430.756955

Y
1000
Observacione 36 500
0
0 20 40 6
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Muestra p
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 154.800579 154.800579 0.00083427 0.97712616
Residuos 34 6308752.84 185551.554
Total 35 6308907.64

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
Intercepción 1918.00159 146.630209 13.0805351 7.97461E-15 1620.01315 2215.99002 1620.01315 2215.99002
Variable X 1 0.1996139 6.91093465 0.02888378 0.97712616 -13.8450951 14.2443229 -13.8450951 14.2443229

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Percentil Y
1.38888889 1094
4.16666667 1203
6.94444444 1254
9.72222222 1332
12.5 1406
15.2777778 1476
18.0555556 1503
20.8333333 1533
23.6111111 1589
26.3888889 1597
29.1666667 1613
31.9444444 1673
34.7222222 1675
37.5 1725
40.2777778 1809
43.0555556 1917
45.8333333 1931
48.6111111 1935
51.3888889 1994
54.1666667 1996
56.9444444 2004
59.7222222 2074
62.5 2081
65.2777778 2159
68.0555556 2208
70.8333333 2223
73.6111111 2231
76.3888889 2238
79.1666667 2249
81.9444444 2259
84.7222222 2363
87.5 2443
90.2777778 2523
93.0555556 2533
95.8333333 2612
98.6111111 2726
 Gráfico de probabilidad normal
00
00
00
00
00
00
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
 x y
Tiempo Recibos de
Año-Trim. Periodo Carbón
1-1 1 2,159
1-2 2 1,203
1-3 3 1,094
1-4 4 1,996
2-1 5 2,081
2-2 6 1,332
2-3 7 1,476
2-4 8 2,533
3-1 9 2,249
3-2 10 1,533
3-3 11 1,935
3-4 12 2,523
4-1 13 2,208
4-2 14 1,597
4-3 15 1,917
4-4 16 2,726
5-1 17 2,612
5-2 18 1,931
5-3 19 2,223
5-4 20 2,363
6-1 21 2,074
6-2 22 1,589
6-3 23 1,673
6-4 24 2,443
7-1 25 2,231
7-2 26 1,675
7-3 27 1,503
7-4 28 2,259
8-1 29 1,809
8-2 30 1,254
8-3 31 1,613
8-4 32 2,238
9-1 33 2,004
9-2 34 1,406
9-3 35 1,725
9-4 36 1,994
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.83303729
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.69395112
R^2 ajustado 0.59193483
Error típico 44.1765963
Observaciones 5

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 13275.285 13275.285 6.80235591 0.07981342
Residuos 3 5854.71498 1951.57166
Total 4 19130

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
Intercepción 57.1042345 50.3879969 1.13329043 0.33947132 -103.25286 217.461329 -103.25286 217.461329
Variable X 1 0.92996743 0.35656447 2.60813265 0.07981342 -0.20477984 2.0647147 -0.20477984 2.0647147

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Percentil Y
10 75
30 145
50 200
70 220
90 250
 Gráfico de probabilidad normal
300
250
200
150
Y

100
50
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Muestra percentil

perior 95.0%
 x y
estacion automoviles hora
1 150 220
2 55 75
3 220 250
4 130 145
5 95 200
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión Gráfico de probabi

Coeficiente d 0.98408664 80
Coeficiente d 0.96842652
60
R^2 ajustado 0.96526917
40
Error típico 3.16811401

Y
20
Observacione 12
0
0 20 40 60
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Muestra p
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 3078.5472 3078.5472 306.721495 7.82539E-09
Residuos 10 100.369464 10.0369464
Total 11 3178.91667

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
Intercepción 6.42424242 1.94983939 3.29475467 0.00808482 2.07972953 10.7687553 2.07972953 10.7687553
Variable X 1 4.63986014 0.264931 17.5134661 7.82539E-09 4.04955708 5.2301632 4.04955708 5.2301632

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Percentil Y
4.16666667 10
12.5 14
20.8333333 19
29.1666667 26
37.5 31
45.8333333 35
54.1666667 39
62.5 44
70.8333333 51
79.1666667 54
87.5 55
95.8333333 61
Gráfico de probabilidad normal

0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
 1 10
2 14
3 19
4 26
5 31
6 35
7 39
8 44
9 51
10 55
11 61
12 54