Minimos Cuadrados

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1) Con los datos

a) Construya el polinomio de mínimos cuadrados de primer grado y calcule:


𝑆𝑟, 𝑆𝑡, 𝑆𝑦, 𝑆𝑦/𝑥 𝑦 𝑟 2 . ¿Qué porcentaje de incertidumbre se ha explicado?
REGRESION LINEAL

GRADO 1
𝟐 𝟐
𝒊 𝒙𝒊 𝒚𝒊 𝒙𝒊 𝒙𝒊 ∗ 𝒚𝒊 𝒂𝟎 𝒂𝟏 𝑷(𝒙) 𝒚𝒊 − 𝑷(𝒙) (𝒚𝒊 − 𝑷(𝒙))
1 5 112.56 25 562.8 104.19983 8.36016995 69.8924416
2 5.2 123.18 27.04 640.536 118.616734 4.56326641 20.8234003
3 5.5 140.11 30.25 770.605 140.242089 -0.1320889 0.01744748

-256.2227584
72.0845177
4 5.7 152.05 32.49 866.685 154.658992 -2.60899244 6.80684153
5 6.1 177.53 37.21 1082.933 183.4928 -5.96279951 35.554978
6 6.5 205.14 42.25 1333.41 212.326607 -7.18660659 51.6473143
7 6.9 234.87 47.61 1620.603 241.160414 -6.29041367 39.5693041
8 7.3 266.73 53.29 1947.129 269.994221 -3.26422075 10.6551371
9 7.8 309.5 60.84 2414.1 306.03648 3.4635204 11.9959736
10 8.1 336.72 65.61 2727.432 327.661835 9.05816509 82.0503549

∑ 64.1 2058.39 421.59 13966.233 Ea 329.013193

Σxi2 ∗ Σyi − Σxi yi Σx𝑖


𝑎0 =
nΣxi2 − (Σxi )2

421.59 ∗ Σyi − Σxi yi Σxi


𝒂𝟎 = = −256.223
10 ∗ 421.59 − 64.12

nΣxi yi − Σxi Σyi


𝒂𝟏 =
nΣxi2 − (Σxi )2

10 ∗ 13966.233 − 64.1 ∗ 2058.39


𝒂𝟏 =
10 ∗ 421.59 − 64.12

𝑷(𝒙) = 𝒂𝟏 𝒙 + 𝒂𝟎

𝑷(𝒙) = 72.0845177𝒙 − 256.2227584

𝟏𝟎

𝑬 = ∑[𝒚𝒊 − (𝒂𝟏 𝒙 + 𝒂𝟎 )]𝟐 = 329.013193


𝒊=𝟏
ERRORES
𝒊 𝒚𝒊 ̅
𝒀 ̅
𝒚𝒊 − 𝒀 ̅ )𝟐
(𝒚𝒊 − 𝒀 𝑺𝒕 𝑺𝒓 𝒓𝟐 𝑺𝒚 𝑺𝒚/𝒙 𝑨𝑪𝑬𝑷𝑻𝑨𝑩𝑰𝑳𝑰𝑫𝑨𝑫
1 112.56 -93.279 8700.97184
2 123.18 -82.659 6832.51028
3 140.11 -65.729 4320.30144

99.4122128%

6.413006247
55974.88009

78.86336996
329.013193
4 152.05 -53.789 2893.25652
205.839
5 177.53 -28.309 801.399481 MODELO
6 205.14 -0.699 0.488601 ACEPTABLE
7 234.87 29.031 842.798961
8 266.73 60.891 3707.71388
9 309.5 103.661 10745.6029
10 336.72 130.881 17129.8362

𝟏𝟎

𝑺𝒓 = ∑[𝒚𝒊 − (𝒂𝟏 𝒙 + 𝒂𝟎 )]𝟐 = 329.013193


𝒊=𝟏
𝟏𝟎
̅ )𝟐 = 55974.88
𝑺𝒕 = ∑(𝒚𝒊 − 𝒀
𝒊=𝟏
𝑺𝒕
𝑺𝒚 = √ = 78.86336996
𝒏−𝟏

𝑺𝒓
𝑺𝒚/𝒙 = √ = 6.413006247
𝒏−𝟐

𝑺𝒕 − 𝑺𝒓
𝒓𝟐 = ( ) ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 99.4122128%
𝑺𝒕
Con el método de regresión exponencial se explica un porcentaje de incertidumbre del
99.4122128%
b) Construya el polinomio de mínimos cuadrados de segundo grado y calcule:
𝑆𝑟, 𝑆𝑡, 𝑆𝑦, 𝑆𝑦/𝑥 𝑦 𝑟 2 . ¿Qué porcentaje de incertidumbre se ha explicado?

REGRESION CUADRÁTICA.
GRADO 2
i xi yi xi^2 xi^3 xi^4 xi*yi (xi^2)*yi P(x) yi-P(x) (yi-P(xi))^2
1 5 112.56 25 125 625 562.8 2814 112.552842 0.00715841 5.1243E-05
2 5.2 123.18 27.04 140.608 731.1616 640.536 3330.7872 123.178003 0.00199718 3.9887E-06
3 5.5 140.11 30.25 166.375 915.0625 770.605 4238.3275 140.108476 0.00152369 2.3216E-06
4 5.7 152.05 32.49 185.193 1055.6001 866.685 4940.1045 152.05728 -0.00727973 5.2994E-05
5 6.1 177.53 37.21 226.981 1384.5841 1082.933 6605.8913 177.543257 -0.01325718 0.00017575
6 6.5 205.14 42.25 274.625 1785.0625 1333.41 8667.165 205.147062 -0.00706213 4.9874E-05
7 6.9 234.87 47.61 328.509 2266.7121 1620.603 11182.1607 234.868695 0.00130543 1.7042E-06
8 7.3 266.73 53.29 389.017 2839.8241 1947.129 14214.0417 266.708155 0.0218455 0.00047723
9 7.8 309.5 60.84 474.552 3701.5056 2414.1 18829.98 309.485674 0.01432567 0.00020522
10 8.1 336.72 65.61 531.441 4304.6721 2727.432 22092.1992 336.740557 -0.02055685 0.00042258

SUMATORIAS 64.1 2058.39 421.59 2842.301 19609.1847 13966.233 96914.6571 Ea 0.00144291


𝟏𝟎𝒂𝟎 + 𝟔𝟒. 𝟏𝒂𝟏 + 𝟒𝟐𝟏. 𝟓𝟗𝒂𝟐 = 𝟐𝟎𝟓𝟖. 𝟑𝟗
{ 𝟔𝟏. 𝟏𝒂𝟎 + 𝟒𝟐𝟏. 𝟓𝟗𝒂𝟏 + 𝟐𝟖𝟒𝟐. 𝟑𝟎𝟏𝒂𝟐 = 𝟏𝟑𝟗𝟔𝟔. 𝟐𝟑𝟑
𝟒𝟐𝟏. 𝟓𝟗𝒂𝟎 + 𝟐𝟖𝟒𝟐. 𝟑𝟎𝟏𝒂𝟏 + 𝟏𝟗𝟔𝟎𝟗. 𝟏𝟖𝟒𝟕𝒂𝟐 = 𝟗𝟔𝟗𝟏𝟒. 𝟔𝟓𝟕𝟏

MATRIZ
A B C Term. Ind.
10 64.1 421.59 2058.39
64.1 421.59 2842.301 13966.233
421.59 2842.301 19609.1847 96914.6571

Ahora se halla la matriz inversa:

MATRIZ INVERSA
234.1597988 -72.9265383 5.53616811
-72.92653827 22.8162862 -1.73926935
5.536168114 -1.73926935 0.13312812
Se multiplica la matriz inversa con la matriz de términos independientes para hallar los
coeficientes de P(x):

a0 18.9972947
a1 -14.3799452
a2 6.61821092

𝑷(𝒙) = 𝟏𝟖, 𝟗𝟗𝟕𝟐𝟗𝟒𝟔𝟔 − 𝟏𝟒, 𝟑𝟕𝟗𝟗𝟒𝟓𝟐𝟏 𝒙 + 𝟔, 𝟔𝟏𝟖𝟐𝟏𝟎𝟗𝟏𝟖 𝒙𝟐


𝟏𝟎

𝑬 = ∑[𝒚𝒊 − (𝒂𝟏 𝒙𝒊 + 𝒂𝟎 )]𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟒𝟒𝟐𝟗𝟏𝟐𝟖𝟖𝟓𝟗𝟑𝟐𝟔𝟔


𝒊=𝟏
i Yi Ymedia Yi-Ymedia (Yi-Ymedia)^2 St Sr Sy Sy/x r^2 ACEPTABILIDAD
1 112.56 -93.279 8700.97184
2 123.18 -82.659 6832.51028
3 140.11 -65.729 4320.30144
4 152.05 -53.789 2893.25652
5 177.53 -28.309 801.399481 MODELO
205.839 55974.8801 0.00144291 51.1516694 0.01435724 99.999997%
6 205.14 -0.699 0.488601 ACEPTABLE
7 234.87 29.031 842.798961
8 266.73 60.891 3707.71388
9 309.5 103.661 10745.6029
10 336.72 130.881 17129.8362
SUMATORIA 705.43 -323.765 23548.4396
𝟏𝟎

𝑺𝒓 = ∑[𝒚𝒊 − (𝒂𝟏 𝒙 + 𝒂𝟎 )]𝟐 = 0.001442912885


𝒊=𝟏
𝟏𝟎
̅ )𝟐 = 55974.88
𝑺𝒕 = ∑(𝒚𝒊 − 𝒀
𝒊=𝟏
𝒕 𝑺
𝑺𝒚 = √𝒏−𝟏 = 51.1516694

𝑺𝒓
𝑺𝒚/𝒙 = √ = 0.01435724
𝒏−𝟐

𝑺𝒕 − 𝑺𝒓
𝒓𝟐 = ( ) ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 99.999999%
𝑺𝒕
Con el método de regresión exponencial se explica un porcentaje de incertidumbre del
99.9999999%
c) Construya el polinomio de mínimos cuadrados de tercer grado y calcule:
𝑆𝑟, 𝑆𝑡, 𝑆𝑦, 𝑆𝑦/𝑥 𝑦 𝑟 2 . ¿Qué porcentaje de incertidumbre se ha explicado?

REGRESION GRADO 3.
GRADO 3
i xi yi xi^2 xi^3 xi^4 xi^5 xi^6 xi*yi (xi^2)*yi (xi^3)*yi P(x) yi-P(x) (yi-P(xi))^2
1 5 112.56 25 125 625 3125 15625 562.8 2814 14070 112.472545 0.08745541 0.00764845
2 5.2 123.18 27.04 140.608 731.1616 3802.04032 19770.6097 640.536 3330.7872 17320.0934 123.1647 0.015299703 0.00023408
3 5.5 140.11 30.25 166.375 915.0625 5032.84375 27680.6406 770.605 4238.3275 23310.8013 140.153492 -0.043492303 0.00189158
4 5.7 152.05 32.49 185.193 1055.6001 6016.92057 34296.4472 866.685 4940.1045 28158.5957 152.117921 -0.067921294 0.0046133
5 6.1 177.53 37.21 226.981 1384.5841 8445.96301 51520.3744 1082.933 6605.8913 40295.9369 177.594344 -0.064344456 0.00414021
6 6.5 205.14 42.25 274.625 1785.0625 11602.9063 75418.8906 1333.41 8667.165 56336.5725 205.156414 -0.016414253 0.00026943
7 6.9 234.87 47.61 328.509 2266.7121 15640.3135 107918.163 1620.603 11182.1607 77156.9088 234.830802 0.039197645 0.00153646
8 7.3 266.73 53.29 389.017 2839.8241 20730.7159 151334.226 1947.129 14214.0417 103762.504 266.64418 0.085819568 0.007365
9 7.8 309.5 60.84 474.552 3701.5056 28871.7437 225199.601 2414.1 18829.98 146873.844 309.45949 0.040509697 0.00164104
10 8.1 336.72 65.61 531.441 4304.6721 34867.844 282429.536 2727.432 22092.1992 178946.814 336.794593 -0.074593193 0.00556414

SUMATORIAS 64.1 2058.39 421.59 2842.301 19609.1847 138136.291 991193.489 13966.233 96914.6571 686232.071 Ea 0.03490368

𝟏𝟎𝒂𝟎 + 64.1 𝒂𝟏 + 421.59𝒂𝟐 + 2842.301𝒂𝟑 = 2058.39


64.1𝒂𝟎 + 421.59𝒂𝟏 + 2842.301𝒂𝟐 + 19609.1847𝒂𝟑 = 13966.233
421.59𝒂𝟎 + 2842.301𝒂𝟏 + 19609.1847𝒂𝟐 + 138136.291𝒂𝟑 = 96914.6571
2842.301𝒂𝟎 + 19609.1847𝒂𝟏 + 138136.291𝒂𝟐 + 991193.489𝒂𝟑 = 686232.071

MATRIZ
A B C D Ti
10 64.1 421.59 2842.301 2058.39
64.1 421.59 2842.301 19609.1847 13966.233
421.59 2842.301 19609.1847 138136.291 96914.6571
2842.301 19609.1847 138136.291 991193.489 686232.071
Ahora se halla la matriz inversa:

MATRIZ INVERSA
14947.2678 -7013.850319 1081.43947 -54.8175361
-7013.85032 3297.204203 -509.297755 25.8602289
1081.43947 -509.2977553 78.8090893 -4.00855945
-54.8175361 25.86022889 -4.00855945 0.20423708

Se multiplica la matriz inversa con la matriz de términos independientes para hallar los
coeficientes de P(x):

a0 22.6675677
a1 -16.1114003
a2 6.88660146
a3 -0.01367456

𝑷(𝒙) = 22.6675677 − 16.1114003𝒙 + 6.88660146𝒙𝟐 −0.01367456𝒙𝟑


i Yi Ymedia Yi-Ymedia (Yi-Ymedia)^2 St Sr Sy Sy/x r^2 ACEPTABILIDAD
1 112.56 -93.279 8700.97184
2 123.18 -82.659 6832.51028
3 140.11 -65.729 4320.30144
4 152.05 -53.789 2893.25652
5 177.53 -28.309 801.399481 MODELO
205.839 55974.8801 0.034903683 51.15166943 0.0762711 99.999938%
6 205.14 -0.699 0.488601 ACEPTABLE
7 234.87 29.031 842.798961
8 266.73 60.891 3707.71388
9 309.5 103.661 10745.6029
10 336.72 130.881 17129.8362
sumatoria 705.43 -323.765 23548.4396
Con el método de regresión exponencial se explica un porcentaje de incertidumbre del
99.999938%

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