PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE

Para el clculo de la precipitacin mxima para un periodo de retorno de 24 horas se us los

datos de la estacin Cachidan.

AO Pmax24h 1987 21.7

1963 36 1993 30.5
1964 33 1994 29
1965 35 1995 20.5
1966 20.7 1996 46
1967 27.4 1997 28
1968 23.9 1998 33.5
1969 27 1999 48.5
1970 27.5 2000 27.9
1971 33.8 2001 30
1972 50.2 2002 35.5
1973 28.5 2003 27.7
1974 36.2 2004 21.7
1975 31.1 2005 25.9
1976 38 2006 36.4
1977 29 2007 40.8
1978 23 2008 26.4
1979 25.7 2009 28
1980 48.1 2010 37.6
1981 50.1 2011 42.8
1982 24.7 2012 36.6
1985 47 2013 34.2
1986 35.5

DISTRIBUCIN GUMBEL

CLCULOS DEL AJUSTE SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
m X P(X) G(Y) Ordinario G(Y) Mom Lineal Delta
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 20.5 0.0222 0.0229 0.0308 0.0007
2 20.7 0.0444 0.0258 0.0342 0.0187
3 21.7 0.0667 0.0437 0.0545 0.0230
4 21.7 0.0889 0.0437 0.0545 0.0452
5 23.0 0.1111 0.0775 0.0910 0.0336
6 23.9 0.1333 0.1082 0.1229 0.0251
7 24.7 0.1556 0.1404 0.1556 0.0151
8 25.7 0.1778 0.1864 0.2013 0.0086
9 25.9 0.2000 0.1962 0.2110 0.0038
10 26.4 0.2222 0.2217 0.2359 0.0006
11 27.0 0.2444 0.2535 0.2669 0.0091
12 27.4 0.2667 0.2754 0.2881 0.0088
13 27.5 0.2889 0.2810 0.2935 0.0079
14 27.7 0.3111 0.2921 0.3042 0.0190
 15 27.9 0.3333 0.3034 0.3151 0.0300
16 28.0 0.3556 0.3090 0.3205 0.0466
17 28.0 0.3778 0.3090 0.3205 0.0688
18 28.5 0.4000 0.3374 0.3478 0.0626
19 29.0 0.4222 0.3660 0.3752 0.0562
20 29.0 0.4444 0.3660 0.3752 0.0785
21 30.0 0.4667 0.4231 0.4297 0.0436
22 30.5 0.4889 0.4512 0.4566 0.0377
23 31.1 0.5111 0.4844 0.4882 0.0267
24 33.0 0.5333 0.5832 0.5826 0.0498
25 33.5 0.5556 0.6072 0.6057 0.0517
26 33.8 0.5778 0.6212 0.6191 0.0434
27 34.2 0.6000 0.6393 0.6365 0.0393
28 35.0 0.6222 0.6737 0.6697 0.0515
29 35.5 0.6444 0.6939 0.6892 0.0495
30 35.5 0.6667 0.6939 0.6892 0.0272
31 36.0 0.6889 0.7132 0.7079 0.0243
32 36.2 0.7111 0.7206 0.7151 0.0095
33 36.4 0.7333 0.7279 0.7222 0.0055
34 36.6 0.7556 0.7350 0.7291 0.0206
35 37.6 0.7778 0.7683 0.7617 0.0094
36 38.0 0.8000 0.7807 0.7738 0.0193
37 40.8 0.8222 0.8520 0.8445 0.0298
38 42.8 0.8444 0.8893 0.8821 0.0449
39 46.0 0.8667 0.9312 0.9251 0.0645
40 47.0 0.8889 0.9408 0.9351 0.0519
41 48.1 0.9111 0.9499 0.9447 0.0388
42 48.5 0.9333 0.9529 0.9478 0.0195
43 50.1 0.9556 0.9631 0.9586 0.0075
44 50.2 0.9778 0.9636 0.9592 0.0142

-------------------------------------------------------
AJUSTE CON MOMENTOS ORDINARIOS:
-------------------------------------------------------
Como el delta terico 0.0785, es menor que el delta tabular 0.2050. Los datos se
ajustan a la distribucin Gumbel, con un nivel de significacin del 5%

-------------------------------------------------------
PARMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCIN GUMBEL:
-------------------------------------------------------
Con momentos ordinarios:
Parmetro de posicin ()= 29.0329
Parmetro de escala (alfa)= 6.4239

Con momentos lineales:

Parmetro de posicin (l)= 28.8671
Parmetro de escala (alfal)= 6.7111

------------------------------
PRECIPITACION DE DISEO:
------------------------------
El valor de la precipitacin para un periodo de retorno de 100 aos, es 58.58

DISTRIBUCIN PEARSON TIPO III

CLCULOS DEL AJUSTE SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 m X P(X) G(Y) Ordinario G(Y) Mom Lineal Delta
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 20.5 0.0233 0.0276 0.0265 0.0043
2 20.7 0.0465 0.0305 0.0296 0.0160
3 21.7 0.0698 0.0487 0.0486 0.0210
4 23.0 0.0930 0.0815 0.0830 0.0115
5 23.9 0.1163 0.1104 0.1134 0.0059
6 24.7 0.1395 0.1401 0.1446 0.0006
7 25.7 0.1628 0.1823 0.1884 0.0195
8 25.9 0.1860 0.1913 0.1977 0.0052
9 26.4 0.2093 0.2146 0.2218 0.0052
10 27.0 0.2326 0.2437 0.2517 0.0112
11 27.4 0.2558 0.2639 0.2723 0.0080
12 27.5 0.2791 0.2689 0.2775 0.0101
13 27.7 0.3023 0.2792 0.2879 0.0231
14 27.9 0.3256 0.2896 0.2984 0.0360
15 28.0 0.3488 0.2948 0.3037 0.0541
16 28.0 0.3721 0.2948 0.3037 0.0773
17 28.5 0.3953 0.3211 0.3303 0.0742
18 29.0 0.4186 0.3477 0.3571 0.0709
19 29.0 0.4419 0.3477 0.3571 0.0941
20 30.0 0.4651 0.4014 0.4107 0.0637
21 31.1 0.4884 0.4600 0.4686 0.0283
22 33.0 0.5116 0.5567 0.5632 0.0451
23 33.5 0.5349 0.5807 0.5864 0.0458
24 33.8 0.5581 0.5947 0.6000 0.0366
25 34.2 0.5814 0.6131 0.6177 0.0317
26 35.0 0.6047 0.6481 0.6516 0.0435
27 35.5 0.6279 0.6690 0.6716 0.0411
28 35.5 0.6512 0.6690 0.6716 0.0178
29 36.0 0.6744 0.6890 0.6908 0.0145
30 36.2 0.6977 0.6967 0.6983 0.0010
31 36.4 0.7209 0.7043 0.7056 0.0166
32 36.6 0.7442 0.7118 0.7127 0.0324
33 37.6 0.7674 0.7471 0.7465 0.0204
34 38.0 0.7907 0.7602 0.7591 0.0305
35 40.8 0.8140 0.8376 0.8334 0.0236
36 42.8 0.8372 0.8788 0.8733 0.0416
37 46.0 0.8605 0.9255 0.9191 0.0650
38 47.0 0.8837 0.9363 0.9299 0.0525
39 48.1 0.9070 0.9464 0.9401 0.0394
40 48.5 0.9302 0.9497 0.9435 0.0194
41 50.1 0.9535 0.9610 0.9551 0.0075
42 50.2 0.9767 0.9616 0.9558 0.0151
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------
AJUSTE CON MOMENTOS ORDINARIOS:
-------------------------------------------------------
Como el delta terico 0.09412, es menor que el delta tabular 0.2099. Los datos se
ajustan a la distribucin Log-Pearson tipo 3, con un nivel de significacin del 5%

-----------------------------------------------------------------
LOS 3 PARMETROS DE LA DISTRIBUCIN LOG-PEARSON TIPO 3:
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Con momentos ordinarios:
Parmetro de localizacin (Xo)= 0.7324
Parmetro de forma (gamma)= 125.6393
Parmetro de escala (beta)= 0.0218

Con momentos lineales:

Parmetro de localizacin (Xol)= 1.7649
Parmetro de forma (gammal)= 46.6258
Parmetro de escala (betal)= 0.0365

------------------------------
PRECIPITACIN TR=100
------------------------------
El valor de la precipitacin para un periodo de retorno de 100 aos, es 58.46

RESULTADO:

De los datos obtenidos el que presenta mejor ajuste de las precipitaciones es la

Distribucin Gumbel, por lo tanto la precipitacin para un periodo de retorno de
100 aos ser 58.58mm.

Pmax24h=58.58mm

Las intensidades mximas las obtenemos usando la metodologa de Dick Peschke

(Guevara,1991) que relaciona la precipitacin mxima en 24 horas y se expresa de
la siguiente manera:

Entonces, los datos obtenidos son los siguientes:

d Pd
5 min 14.220
15 min 18.715
1 hora 26.467
2 horas 31.474
3 horas 34.832
6 horas 41.422