2024 United States presidential election in Illinois: Difference between revisions
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| country = Illinois |
| country = Illinois |
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| type = Presidential |
| type = Presidential |
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| ongoing = |
| ongoing = |
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| previous_election = 2020 United States presidential election in Illinois |
| previous_election = 2020 United States presidential election in Illinois |
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| previous_year = 2020 |
| previous_year = 2020 |
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| Line 23: | Line 23: | ||
| home_state1 = [[California]] |
| home_state1 = [[California]] |
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| running_mate1 = '''[[Tim Walz]]''' |
| running_mate1 = '''[[Tim Walz]]''' |
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| popular_vote1 = '''2, |
| popular_vote1 = '''2,930,964''' |
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| percentage1 = '''53. |
| percentage1 = '''53.98%''' |
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| electoral_vote1 = '''19''' |
| electoral_vote1 = '''19''' |
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| image2 = Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg |
| image2 = Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg |
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| home_state2 = [[Florida]] |
| home_state2 = [[Florida]] |
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| running_mate2 = [[JD Vance]] |
| running_mate2 = [[JD Vance]] |
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| popular_vote2 = 2, |
| popular_vote2 = 2,411,970 |
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| percentage2 = 44. |
| percentage2 = 44.42% |
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| electoral_vote2 = 0 |
| electoral_vote2 = 0 |
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| reporting = |
| reporting = 94 |
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| last_update = |
| last_update = Nov. 11, 5:33 PM |
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| time_zone = [[Central Standard Time|CST]] |
| time_zone = [[Central Standard Time|CST]] |
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| image_size = 200x200px |
| image_size = 200x200px |
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Illinois is a strongly [[blue state]] in the [[Great Lakes]] region anchored by [[Chicago]], with the sparsely populated [[Southern Illinois|southern region of the state]] being culturally influenced by the [[Upper South]] and [[Bible Belt]]. It has a reputation for being by far the most liberal state in the Great Lakes region. The state has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election beginning in [[1992 United States presidential election in Illinois|1992]] (doing so by at least 10% each time), including voting for Senator [[Barack Obama]] from Illinois in [[2008 United States presidential election in Illinois|2008]] and [[2012 United States presidential election in Illinois|2012]] and Chicago-born [[Hillary Clinton]] in [[2016 United States presidential election in Illinois|2016]]. This will also be the first election since [[1868 United States presidential election in Illinois|1868]] in which Illinois will not have 20 or more electoral votes. |
Illinois is a strongly [[blue state]] in the [[Great Lakes]] region anchored by [[Chicago]], with the sparsely populated [[Southern Illinois|southern region of the state]] being culturally influenced by the [[Upper South]] and [[Bible Belt]]. It has a reputation for being by far the most liberal state in the Great Lakes region. The state has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election beginning in [[1992 United States presidential election in Illinois|1992]] (doing so by at least 10% each time), including voting for Senator [[Barack Obama]] from Illinois in [[2008 United States presidential election in Illinois|2008]] and [[2012 United States presidential election in Illinois|2012]] and Chicago-born [[Hillary Clinton]] in [[2016 United States presidential election in Illinois|2016]]. This will also be the first election since [[1868 United States presidential election in Illinois|1868]] in which Illinois will not have 20 or more electoral votes. |
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With |
With 94% of the reported vote counted, Illinois has been projected to be won by the Democratic candidate [[Kamala Harris]]. However, despite Harris easily carrying the state, her performance was the worst for a Democrat since the state last voted Republican in [[1988 United States presidential election in Illinois|1988]], and the first time since [[John F. Kennedy]]’s narrow victory in [[1960 United States presidential election in Illinois|1960]] where the winning statewide Democratic candidate's margin of victory didn't exceed 10%. Trump flipped [[Winnebago County, Illinois|Winnebago County]] for the first time since [[2004 United States presidential election in Illinois|2004]]. Trump is the first Republican to ever win without McLean or Kendall counties. |
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Current vote counts |
Current vote counts have Harris winning the state by a 9.56% margin, just over half of [[Joe Biden]]'s margin of 16.99% in [[2020 United States presidential election in Illinois|2020]]. Illinois joined other blue states such as [[2024 United States presidential election in New York|New York]], [[2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey|New Jersey]], [[2024 United States presidential election in California|California]], and [[2024 United States presidential election in Rhode Island|Rhode Island]] in trending significantly rightward in 2024. |
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==Primary elections== |
==Primary elections== |
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{{Election box begin |title=2024 United States presidential election in Illinois<ref name="f635">{{#invoke:cite web|| title=Candidate Filings in Ballot Order, November 5, 2024 |
{{Election box begin |title=2024 United States presidential election in Illinois<ref name="f635">{{#invoke:cite web|| title=Candidate Filings in Ballot Order, November 5, 2024 |
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| url=https://cboeprod.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/prod/2024-09/Candidate%20List%20G2024%209.20.24.pdf | website=Chicago Board of Election Commissioners | access-date=2024-09-23}}</ref>}} |
| url=https://cboeprod.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/prod/2024-09/Candidate%20List%20G2024%209.20.24.pdf | website=Chicago Board of Election Commissioners | access-date=2024-09-23}}</ref>}} |
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{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Democratic Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|[[Kamala Harris]]|[[Tim Walz]]}}|votes=2, |
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Democratic Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|[[Kamala Harris]]|[[Tim Walz]]}}|votes=2,880,845|percentage=53.7%|change={{decrease}} 3.9%}} |
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{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|[[Donald Trump]]|[[JD Vance]]}}|votes=2, |
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Republican Party (United States)|candidate={{ubl|[[Donald Trump]]|[[JD Vance]]}}|votes=2,402,285|percentage=44.7%|change={{increase}} 4.2%}} |
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{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Independent|candidate={{ubl|[[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]] ''(withdrawn)''|[[Nicole Shanahan]] ''(withdrawn)''}}|votes=76, |
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Independent|candidate={{ubl|[[Robert F. Kennedy Jr.]] ''(withdrawn)''|[[Nicole Shanahan]] ''(withdrawn)''}}|votes=76,941|percentage=1.4%|change=N/A}} |
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{{Election box write-in with party link|votes=|percentage=|change=}} |
{{Election box write-in with party link|votes=|percentage=|change=}} |
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{{Election box total|votes=|percentage=}} |
{{Election box total|votes=|percentage=}} |
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{{Election box end}} |
{{Election box end}} |
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==== Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican ==== |
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* [[Winnebago County, Illinois|Winnebago]] (Largest city: [[Rockford, Illinois|Rockford]]) |
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== See also == |
== See also == |
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Revision as of 22:22, 12 November 2024
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 County Results
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| Elections in Illinois |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Illinois is currently taking place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Illinois voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Illinois has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College this election, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
Illinois is a strongly blue state in the Great Lakes region anchored by Chicago, with the sparsely populated southern region of the state being culturally influenced by the Upper South and Bible Belt. It has a reputation for being by far the most liberal state in the Great Lakes region. The state has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election beginning in 1992 (doing so by at least 10% each time), including voting for Senator Barack Obama from Illinois in 2008 and 2012 and Chicago-born Hillary Clinton in 2016. This will also be the first election since 1868 in which Illinois will not have 20 or more electoral votes.
With 94% of the reported vote counted, Illinois has been projected to be won by the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. However, despite Harris easily carrying the state, her performance was the worst for a Democrat since the state last voted Republican in 1988, and the first time since John F. Kennedy’s narrow victory in 1960 where the winning statewide Democratic candidate's margin of victory didn't exceed 10%. Trump flipped Winnebago County for the first time since 2004. Trump is the first Republican to ever win without McLean or Kendall counties.
Current vote counts have Harris winning the state by a 9.56% margin, just over half of Joe Biden's margin of 16.99% in 2020. Illinois joined other blue states such as New York, New Jersey, California, and Rhode Island in trending significantly rightward in 2024.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Illinois Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida,[a] Kansas, and Ohio.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 739,646 | 91.5% | 147 | 147 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 28,777 | 3.6% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 25,615 | 3.2% | |||
| Frankie Lozada (withdrawn) | 14,513 | 1.8% | |||
| Total: | 808,551 | 100.00% | 147 | 27 | 174 |
Republican primary
The Illinois Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Ohio.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 479,556 | 80.50% | 64 | 0 | 64 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 86,278 | 14.48% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 16,990 | 2.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 9,758 | 1.64% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 3,114 | 0.52% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 595,696 | 100.00% | 64 | 0 | 64 |
General election
Candidates
On August 23, 2024, the Illinois State Board of Elections met in Chicago and Springfield to certify the following list of candidates to appear on the general election ballot:
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz — Democratic
- Donald Trump / JD Vance — Republican
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan — Independent
The board also issued rulings to the nomination papers of third party and independent candidates, including placeholder candidates for the Libertarian and Green Party tickets, as well as for Kennedy and Shanahan. Both the Libertarian and Green tickets were removed from the ballot, lacking the minimum required number of 25,000 valid signatures, while Kennedy remained.[4]
Campaign
Convention
The 2024 Democratic National Convention was held from August 19 to 22, 2024, at the United Center in Chicago.[5] It was the first instance of a major party's presidential nominating convention held in Illinois since 1996.[6] Here, party delegates voted on their platform for the election and formally nominated vice president Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, with Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Safe D | June 13, 2024 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Likely D | August 23, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Solid D | October 2, 2024 |
| RCP[15] | Likely D | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[16] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[17] | October 4–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
| ActiVote[18] | September 3 – October 5, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 59% | 41% | – |
| ActiVote[19] | August 6–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 42% | – |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 53% | 40% | 7% |
| Emerson College[21] | October 1–4, 2023 | 468 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Cor Strategies[22] | August 24–27, 2023 | 811 (RV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
| Emerson College[23][B] | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24][C] | October 10–11, 2022 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Emerson College[25] | September 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 643 (LV) | – | 48% | 37% | 15% |
J. B. Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
J. B. Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[24] | October 10–11, 2022 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cor Strategies[22] | August 24–27, 2023 | 811 (RV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 2,880,845 | 53.7% |  3.9%
| ||
| Republican | 2,402,285 | 44.7% |  4.2%
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| Independent |
|
76,941 | 1.4% | N/A | |
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
See also
- United States presidential elections in Illinois
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by WGN-TV
- ^ Poll sponsored by WBEZ & The Chicago Sun-Times
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Illinois Presidential Primary". AP News. June 14, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ "Illinois Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ Keck, Patrick (August 27, 2024). "RFK Jr. remains on Illinois ballot; Green Party, Libertarian candidates removed". The State Journal-Register. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
- ^ Homan, Maya (August 12, 2024). "The 2024 Democratic National Convention kicks off next week. Here's what to expect". USA TODAY (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ Elving, Ron (August 12, 2024). "Chicago '68 recalls a Democratic convention and a political moment like no other". NPR (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (September 18, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Harris's Steady Lead in Illinois". ActiVote.
- ^ Allis, Victor (October 6, 2024). "Harris Extends Lead in Illinois". ActiVote. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
- ^ Allis, Victor (August 29, 2024). "Harris Leads by Double Digits in Illinois". ActiVote. Retrieved August 31, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "Illinois 2024 Poll: Biden Holds Nine-Point Lead Over Trump". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b "Illinoisans Share Who They Support for President (Republican & Democrat Poll)". YouTube. August 30, 2023. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- ^ Bradley, Tahman; Muck, Jordan (October 26, 2022). "Poll: Illinois Democrats maintain large leads in race for governor, U.S. Senate, Sec Of State, Comptroller, Treasurer". WGN-TV.
- ^ a b McKinney, Dave (October 17, 2022). "Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll: Illinois voters don't want Pritzker or Biden to run for president – but they'd take either over Trump". Chicago Sun-Times.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (September 28, 2022). "Illinois 2022: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth in Strong Position in Re-election Bids". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Candidate Filings in Ballot Order, November 5, 2024" (PDF). Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
