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Mondolkiri1 (talk | contribs)
Undid revision 618736368 by Soffredo (talk) For reasons that I've already told before, it doesn't make sense to describe DPR as "Donetsk" or LPR as "Lugansk". Borodai is also a Russian national.
Soffredo (talk | contribs)
But he's not representing Russia, which is also involved.
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| combatants_header =
| combatants_header =
| combatant1 =
| combatant1 =
{{flag|Donetsk People's Republic}}
{{flag|Donetsk People's Republic|name=Donetsk}}
{{flag|Lugansk People's Republic}}
{{flag|Lugansk People's Republic|name=Lugansk}}


{{flag|Russia}}<ref name="REUeuada" /><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/washington-has-evidence-of-russias-readiness-to-supply-new-weapons-to-separatists-in-ukraine-357864.html|agency=Interfax-Ukraine|publisher=Kyiv Post|date=25 July 2014|quote="We have evidence that Russia is firing artillery from within Russia to attack Ukrainian military positions"}}</ref><ref name=wpproof>{{cite news|title=U.S. releases images it says show Russia has fired artillery over border into Ukraine|url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-releases-images-it-says-show-russia-has-fired-artillery-over-border-into-ukraine/2014/07/27/f9190158-159d-11e4-9e3b-7f2f110c6265_story.html|publisher=Washington Post|date=27 July 2014}}</ref>
{{flag|Russia}}<ref name="REUeuada" /><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/washington-has-evidence-of-russias-readiness-to-supply-new-weapons-to-separatists-in-ukraine-357864.html|agency=Interfax-Ukraine|publisher=Kyiv Post|date=25 July 2014|quote="We have evidence that Russia is firing artillery from within Russia to attack Ukrainian military positions"}}</ref><ref name=wpproof>{{cite news|title=U.S. releases images it says show Russia has fired artillery over border into Ukraine|url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-releases-images-it-says-show-russia-has-fired-artillery-over-border-into-ukraine/2014/07/27/f9190158-159d-11e4-9e3b-7f2f110c6265_story.html|publisher=Washington Post|date=27 July 2014}}</ref>
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| combatant3 =
| combatant3 =
| commander1 = {{Flagicon|Donetsk People's Republic}}{{Flagicon|Russia}} [[Alexander Borodai]] <br /> {{Flagicon|Donetsk People's Republic}} [[Denis Pushilin]] <br /> {{Flagicon|Russia}} [[Igor Girkin]]<br> {{flagicon|Donetsk People's Republic}} [[Pavel Gubarev]]<br />[[File:LNR flag.png|21px]] [[Valery Bolotov]]
| commander1 = {{Flagicon|Donetsk People's Republic}} [[Alexander Borodai]] <br /> {{Flagicon|Donetsk People's Republic}} [[Denis Pushilin]] <br /> {{Flagicon|Russia}} [[Igor Girkin]]<br> {{flagicon|Donetsk People's Republic}} [[Pavel Gubarev]]<br />[[File:LNR flag.png|21px]] [[Valery Bolotov]]
| commander2 = {{flagicon|Ukraine}} [[Petro Poroshenko]] <br /> {{flagicon|Ukraine}} [[Arseniy Yatsenyuk]] <br /> {{flagicon|Ukraine}} [[Oleksandr Turchynov]]
| commander2 = {{flagicon|Ukraine}} [[Petro Poroshenko]] <br /> {{flagicon|Ukraine}} [[Arseniy Yatsenyuk]] <br /> {{flagicon|Ukraine}} [[Oleksandr Turchynov]]
| commander3 =
| commander3 =

Revision as of 23:45, 27 July 2014

2014 insurgency in Donbass
Part of the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine

Red represents areas held by the DPR. Pink represents areas held by the LPR. Yellow represents areas previously held by insurgents, but retaken by the Ukrainian government.
Date6 April 2014 (2014-04-06)– present
(10 years, 7 months, 1 week and 1 day)
Location
Donbass, includes:
Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine
Status

Ongoing

Belligerents

 Donetsk  Lugansk

 Russia[1][2][3]
 Ukraine
Commanders and leaders
Donetsk People's Republic Alexander Borodai
Donetsk People's Republic Denis Pushilin
Russia Igor Girkin
Donetsk People's Republic Pavel Gubarev
Valery Bolotov
Ukraine Petro Poroshenko
Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk
Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov
Units involved
Donbass People's Militia
File:Flag of the Vostok Battalion (Donetsk People's Republic).svg Vostok Battalion
File:Flag of the Russian Orthodox Army.svg Russian Orthodox Army
Army of the South East
Foreign volunteers:

Ground Forces
Air Force
Airmobile Forces
Ministry of Internal Affairs
Internal Troops
National Guard
State Border Guard Service
Security Service
SBU Alpha Group

Strength
20,000 fighters[15] (according to the insurgents)
~10,000 fighters[16]
(according to experts)
30,000 servicemen[16]
Casualties and losses

650 killed[17] (according to the government)

530–830 killed[18][19][20] (according to the insurgents)
388 servicemen killed,[21] 1,293 wounded[22] and 245 captured[23][24]
1–2 militants killed[25]
550 civilians killed[26]
1,500+ civilians and combatants killed overall[27]

Since the beginning of March 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian and anti-government groups have taken place in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, together commonly called the Donbass, in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and the Euromaidan movement. These demonstrations, part of a wider group of concurrent pro-Russian protests across southern and eastern Ukraine, have since escalated into an armed conflict between the separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, against the Ukrainian government.[28][29] The separatist forces are largely led by Russian citizens, and Russian volunteer paramilitaries make up the bulk of the combatants.[1]

Background

Donetsk Oblast

Attempts to seize the Donetsk Regional State Administration (RSA) building began since pro-Russian protests erupted in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, in the wake of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution. Pro-Russian protesters occupied the Donetsk RSA from 1–6 March, before being removed by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).[30][31] On 6 April, 1,000–2,000 people gathered at a rally in Donetsk to demand a status referendum similar to the one held in Crimea in March.[32][33] The demonstrators stormed the RSA building, and took control of its first two floors. They said that if an extraordinary legislative session was not held by regional officials to implement a status referendum, they would take control of the regional government with a "people's mandate", and dismiss all elected regional councillors and members of parliament.[34][35][36] As these demands were not met, the activists held a meeting in the RSA building, and voted in favour of independence from Ukraine. They proclaimed the Donetsk People's Republic.[37]

Luhansk Oblast

Unrest in Luhansk Oblast began on 6 April, when approximately 1,000 activists seized and occupied the SBU building in the city of Luhansk, following similar occupations in the cities of Donetsk and Kharkiv.[38][39] Protestors barricaded the building, and demanded that all arrested separatist leaders be released.[38][40] Police were able to retake control of the building, but the demonstrators regathered for a 'people's assembly' outside the building and called for a 'people's government', demanding either federalisation or incorporation into the Russian Federation.[41][42] At this assembly, they elected Valery Bolotov to the position of "People's Governor".[43] Two referendums were announced, one on 11 May to determine whether the region should seek some form of autonomy, and a second scheduled for 18 May to determine whether the region should join the Russian Federation, or declare independence.[44]

The Lugansk People's Republic was declared on 27 April.[45] Representatives of the Republic demanded that Ukrainian government provide amnesty for all protesters, enshrine Russian as an official language, and hold a referendum on the status of the region.[45] They issued an ultimatum that stated that if Kiev did not meet their demands by 14:00 on 29 April, they would launch an insurgency in tandem with that of the Donetsk People's Republic.[45][46]

History

Pro-Russian protesters in Donetsk

After having gained control of the Donetsk RSA and having declared the Donetsk People's Republic, pro-Russian groups vowed to fan out and take control of strategic infrastructure across Donetsk Oblast, and demanded that public officials who wished to continue their work swear allegiance to the Republic.[47] By 14 April, pro-Russian separatists had taken control of government buildings in many other cities within the oblast, including Mariupol, Horlivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Yenakiieve, Makiivka, Druzhkivka, and Zhdanivka.[48][49][50][51]

First standoff

In response to the widening unrest, the Ukrainian President, Oleksandr Turchynov, vowed to launch a major "anti-terror" operation against separatist movements in Donetsk Oblast.[52] The Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, said on 9 April that the unrest in Donetsk Oblast would be resolved within forty-eight hours, either through negotiations or the use of force. President Olexander Turchynov signed a decree to retake the Donetsk RSA building, and place it "under state protection,"[53][54] and offered amnesty to the demonstrators if they laid down their arms.[55]

Expansion of territorial control

Unmarked separatist militants seized the Donetsk office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs on 12 April without resistance.[56] Following negotiations between the militants and those in the building, the chief of the office resigned from his post.[57] Officers from the Berkut special police force, which had been dissolved by the government following the February revolution, took part in seizure on the separatists' side.[58][59] Following this seizure, the militants would begin to expand their control across Donetsk. The municipal administration building in Donetsk city was stormed and occupied by the insurgents on 16 April.[60] Further actions by separatists resulted in the capture of the offices of the regional state television network on 27 April.[61] After capturing the broadcasting centre, the militants began to broadcast Russian television channels.[citation needed] On 4 May, the flag of the Donetsk People's Republic was raised over the police headquarters in Donetsk city proper.[62]

Sloviansk

Separatist militants took control of the city administration building, police offices, and SBU building in Sloviansk, a city in the northern part of Donetsk Oblast, on 12 April.[56][63] The militants were welcomed by the elected mayor, Nelya Shtepa, who said that she "could not object to them". She said that the buildings were seized by "volunteers" and "activists".[56] "I cannot object to them, since Slavyansk considers Russia its elder brother and we will not fight with Russia," she said of the militants.[64] Some people gathered outside the occupied police building to voice their support for the militants. They told Ukrainian journalists who were reporting on the situation to "go back to Kiev".[56] Nelya Shtepa was detained, and replaced by the self-proclaimed "people's mayor", Vyacheslav Ponomarev. The separatists gained control of the city's police weapons cache and seized hundreds of firearms, which prompted the Ukrainian government to launch a "counter-terrorism" operation to retake the city.[59][65] This government counter-offensive began on the morning of 13 April.[66] As result, an entrenched standoff between insurgents and the Armed Forces of Ukraine resulted. The city remained under siege until 5 July, when Ukrainian forces recaptured it, with an estimated 15–20,000 people displaced by the fighting.[67][68]

Kramatorsk

In Kramatorsk, a city in northern Donetsk Oblast, insurgents attacked a police station on 13 April, resulting in a shootout.[69][70] The insurgents, members of the Donbass People's Militia, later captured the police station. They removed the police station's sign and raised the flag of the Donetsk People's Republic over the building.[71] They then issued an ultimatum that stated that if the city's mayor and administration did not swear allegiance to the Republic by the following Monday, they would remove them from office.[71][72] Concurrently, a crowd of demonstrators surrounded the city administration building, captured it, and raised the Donetsk People's Republic flag over it. A representative of the Republic addressed locals outside the occupied police station, but was received negatively and booed.[71]

After a government counter-offensive as part of the "anti-terror" operation in Donetsk Oblast on 2–3 May, the insurgents were routed from Kramatorsk's occupied SBU building.[73] Despite this, Ukrainian troops quickly withdrew from the city for unknown reasons, and the separatists quickly regained control. Sporadic fighting continued until 5 July, when the insurgents withdrew from Kramatorsk.[74]

Horlivka

Militants attempted to seize the police headquarters in Horlivka on 12 April, but were halted. Ukrayinska Pravda reported that police said that the purpose of the attempted seizure was to gain access to a weapons cache.[75] They said that they would use force if needed to defend the building from "criminals and terrorists".[76] By 14 April, however, militants had successfully captured the building after a tense standoff with the police.[50] Some members of the local police unit defected to the Donetsk People's Republic earlier in the day, whilst the remaining offices were forced to retreat, allowing the insurgents to take control of the building.[77][77][78] The local chief of police was captured and badly beaten by the insurgents.[79] A Horlivka city council deputy, Volodymyr Rybak, was kidnapped by masked men believed to be pro-Russian militants on 17 April. His body was later found in a river on 22 April.[80] The city administration building was seized on 30 April, solidifying separatist control over Horlivka.[81] Self-proclaimed mayor of Horlivka Volodymyr Kolosniuk, was arrested by the SBU on suspicion of his participation in "terrorist activities" on 2 July.[82]

Mariupol

Donetsk People's Republic activists took control of the city administration building in Mariupol on 13 April.[83][84] The Ukrainian government claimed to have "liberated" the building on 24 April, but this was denied by locals interviewed by the BBC near the building.[85]

Clashes between government forces and pro-Russian groups escalated in early May, when the city administration building was briefly retaken by the Ukrainian National Guard. The pro-Russian forces quickly took the building back.[86] Militants then launched an attack on a local police station, leading the Ukrainian government to send in military forces. Skirmishes between the troops and local demonstrators caused the city administration building to light on fire. Government forces, however, were unsuccessful in forcing out the pro-Russians, and only further inflamed tensions in Mariupol.[86] On 16 May, however, Metinvest steelworkers, along with local police and security forces, routed the insurgents from the city administration and other occupied government buildings in the city.[87] Most insurgents left the city, and those few remaining were said to be unarmed. Despite this, the headquarters of the Donetsk People's Republic in the city remained untouched, and pro-Russian demonstrators could still be seen outside the burnt city administration.[88]

Ukrainian troops gained control of the city on 13 June, with assistance from the National Guard.[89] The headquarters of the DPR was captured, and Mariupol was declared provisional capital of Donetsk Oblast, in place of separatist-occupied Donetsk city.[90][91]

Other cities

Many smaller cities across Donetsk and Luhansk oblast have fallen to the separatists.

In Artemivsk on 12 April, separatists failed to capture the local Ministry of Internal Affairs office, but instead captured the city administration building and raised the Donetsk People's Republic flag over it.[92] The city administration buildings in Yenakiieve and Druzhkivka were also captured.[93][94][95] Police repelled an attack by pro-Russian militants upon an office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Krasnyi Lyman on 12 April, but the building was later captured by the separatists after a skirmish.[96][97] Insurgents affiliated with the Donbass People's Militia occupied a regional administration building in Khartsyzk on 13 April, followed by a local administration building in Zhdanivka on 14 April.[51][78][98] Demonstrators hoisted the flag of the Donetsk People's Republic over the city administration buildings in Krasnoarmiisk and Novoazovsk on 16 April.[99][100] The local administration building in Siversk was similarly captured on 18 April.[101][102] Following the takeover, local police announced that they would co-operate with the activists.[101] On 20 April, separatists in Yenakiieve left the city administration building there which they had occupied since 13 April.[95] Despite this, by 27 May the city was still not under Ukrainian government control.[103] Pro-Russian demonstrators in Konstantinovka burnt down the offices of a newspaper that had been critical of the DPR on 22 April.[104]

70 to 100 insurgents armed with assault rifles and rocket launches attacked an armoury in Artemivsk on 24 April.[105] The depot housed around thirty tanks. Ukrainian troops attempted to fight off the insurgents, but were forced to retreat after a substantial number of men were wounded by insurgent fire.[105][106] The Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, said that the insurgents were led by a man with "an extensive bear", referring to the Russian militant Alexander Mozhaev.[105] Some thirty militants seized the police headquarters in Konstantinovka on 28 April.[107] On the next day, a city administration building in Pervomaisk was overrun by Lugansk People's Republic insurgents, who then raised their flag over it.[108][109] On the same day, militants seized control over the city administration building in Alchevsk.[110][111] In Krasnyi Luch, the city administration conceded to demands by separatist activists to support the referendums on the status of Donetsk and Luhansk being held on 11 May, and followed by raising the Russian flag over the city administration building.[108]

Insurgents occupied the city administration building in Stakhanov on 1 May. Later in the week, they captured the local police station, business centre, and SBU building.[112][113] Activists in Rovenky occupied a police building on 5 May, but quickly left it.[114] On the same day, the police headquarters in Slovianoserbsk was seized by members of the Army of the South-East, which is affiliated with the Lugansk People's Republic.[115][116] The town of Antratsyt was occupied by the Don Cossacks.[117][118][119][120] Insurgents went on to seize the prosecutor's office in Sievierodonetsk on 7 May.[121] On the next day, supporters of the Lugansk People's Republic captured government buildings in Starobilsk.[122]

Government counter-offensive

The barricade outside the Donetsk RSA, with banners displaying anti-western slogans.

Arsen Avakov, the Minister of Internal Affairs, said on 9 April that the separatist problem would be resolved within forty-eight hours, through either negotiations or the use of force. "There are two opposite ways for resolving this conflict – a political dialogue and the heavy-handed approach. We are ready for both," he said, according to the Ukrinform state news agency. At the time, President Oleksandr Turchynov had already signed a decree which called for the Donetsk Regional State Administration building, which had been occupied by separatists, to be taken "under state protection".[53][54] He offered amnesty to any separatists who laid down their arms and surrendered.[123] By 11 April, the Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said that he was against the use of "law enforcement" at the time, but that "there was a limit" to how much the Ukrainian government would tolerate.[124]

In response to the spread of separatist control throughout Donetsk Oblast, and the refusal of the separatists to lay down their arms, Turchynov vowed to launch a military counter-offensive operation against insurgents in the region on 15 April.[52][125] As part of the counter-offensive, Ukrainian troops re-took the airfield in Kramatorsk after a skirmish with members of the Donbass People's Militia. At least four people died as a result.[126]

After the Armed Forces of Ukraine re-took the airfield, the commanding general of the unit that had retaken it, Vasily Krutov, was surrounded by hostile protesters who demanded to know why the Ukrainian troops had fired upon local residents.[127] Krutov was then dragged back to the airbase along with his unit. They were then blocked by the protesters, who vowed not to let the troops leave the base.[127] Krutov later told reporters that "if they [the separatists] do not lay down their arms, they will be destroyed".[128]

Donbass People's Militia insurgents entered Sloviansk on 16 April, along with six armoured personnel carriers they claimed to have obtained from the 25th Airborne Brigade, which had surrendered in the city of Kramatorsk.[129][130][131][132] Reports say members of the brigade were disarmed after the vehicles were blocked from passing by angry locals.[133] In another incident, several hundred residents of the village of Pchyolkino, south of Sloviansk, surrounded another column of fourteen Ukrainian armoured vehicles. Following negotiations the troops were allowed to drive their vehicles away, but only after agreeing to surrender the magazines from their assault rifles.[133] These incidents led President Turchynov to disband the 25th Airborne Brigade.[134] Three members of the Donbass People's Militia were killed, eleven wounded, and sixty-three were arrested after they attempted and failed to storm a National Guard base in Mariupol.[135][136]

File:Ukranian military roadblocks in Donetsk oblast 2.jpg
Ukranian military roadblocks in Donetsk oblast

Turchynov relaunched the stalled counter-offensive against pro-Russian insurgents on 22 April, after two men, one a local politician, were found "tortured to death".[137][138] The politician, Volodymyr Rybak, was found dead near Sloviansk after having been abducted by pro-Russian insurgents. Turchynov said that "the terrorists who effectively took the whole Donetsk Oblast hostage have now gone too far".[137] The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that the city of Sviatogorsk, near Sloviansk, was retaken by Ukrainian troops on 23 April.[139] In addition, the Defence ministry said it had taken control over all points of strategic importance in the area around Kramatorsk.[140]

The Internal Affairs Minister, Arsen Avakov, said on 24 April that Ukrainian troops had captured the city administration in Mariupol, after a clash with pro-Russian demonstrators there.[141][142] Despite this, a report by the BBC said that whilst it appeared that Ukrainian troops and the mayor of Mariupol did enter the building in the early morning, Ukrainian troops had abandoned it by the afternoon. Local pro-Russian activists blamed Ukrainian nationalists for the attack upon the building, but said that the DPR had regained control. A representative of the Republic, Irina Voropoyeva, said "We, the Donetsk People's Republic, still control the building. There was an attempted provocation but now it's over".[141]

On the same day, Ukrainian government officials said that the Armed Forces had intended to retake the city of Sloviansk, but that an increased threat of "Russian invasion" halted these operations.[143] Russian forces had mobilised within 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) of the Ukrainian border.[143] The officials said that seven troops were killed during the day's operations. President Turchynov issued a statement later in the day, and said that the "anti-terrorist" operation would be resumed, citing the ongoing hostage crisis in Sloviansk as a reason.[144] By 6 May, fourteen Ukrainian troops had died and sixty-six had been injured in the fighting.[145]

Early in the morning on 7 May, the National Guard retook the city administration in Mariupol after heavy fighting with insurgents overnight.[146][147] Anti-government demonstrators said that government forces had used a "toxic gas" during the operation, resulting in injuries when the demonstrators tried to re-occupy the building after the National Guard withdrew.[148] By 7 May, the flag of the DPR was once again flying over the building.[148]

Ukrainian troops launched another attack on insurgents in Mariupol on 9 May. During an assault on an occupied police building, that building was set alight by government forces, causing the insurgents to flee.[149] Arsen Avakov said that sixty insurgents attack the police building, not Ukrainian troops, and that the police and other government forces had managed to repel the insurgents. Between six and twenty militants were killed, along with one police officer.[150] Four militants were captured, and five policemen were wounded.[151] One armoured personnel carrier was captured by pro-Russian protesters during the fighting. After the clashes, pro-Russian forces built barricades across the city center.[150] Concurrently, Ukrainian National News said that separatists attempted to disarm Ukrainian troops near Donetsk. The troops resisted by firing warning shots, and arresting one-hundred of the separatists.[152] Also, an unnamed Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) priest attempted to negotiate with separatists near Druzhkivka, but was later killed after being shot eight times.[153] This was confirmed by the Church and the Prosecutor's Office.[154]

Post-referendum fighting

Separatist barricade in Luhansk city

It was reported on 12 May that, following the local autonomy referendum, the Donbass People's Militia leader Igor Girkin declared himself "Supreme Commander" of the Donetsk People's Republic. In his decree, he demanded that all military stationed in the region swear an oath of allegiance to him within 48 hours, and said that all remaining Ukrainian military in the region would be "destroyed on the spot." He then petitioned the Russian Federation for military support to protect against "the threat of intervention by NATO" and "genocide."[155][156][157][158] Pavel Gubarev, president of Donetsk People's Republic, instituted martial law on 15 May, and vowed for "total annihilation" of Ukrainian forces if they did not pull out of the Donbass by 21:00. Similarly, the president of the Lugansk People's Republic, Valery Bolotov, declared martial law on 22 May.[159]

The Donetsk-based steel magnate Rinat Akhmetov called on his 300,000 employees within the Donetsk region to "rally against separatists" on 20 May. Sirens sounded at noon at his factories to signal the beginning of the rally.[160] A so-called "Peace March" was held in the Donbass Arena in Donetsk city, accompanied by cars sounding their horns at noon.[161] BBC News and Ukrayinska Pravda reported that some vehicles were attacked by separatists, and that gunmen had warned the offices of several city taxi services not to take part.[161][162] In response to Akhmetov's refusal to pay taxes to the Donetsk People's Republic, on 20 May the chairman of the State Council of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, announced that the Republic would attempt to nationalise Akhmetov's assets.[163] On 25 May, between 2,000 to 5,000 protesters marched to Akhmetov's mansion in Donetsk city, and demanded the nationalisation of Akhmetov's property, while chanting "Akhmetov is an enemy of the people!".[164][165]

Eighteen soldiers were killed during an attack by separatists upon an army checkpoint near the city of Volnovakha, on 22 May.[166] Three armoured personnel carriers and several lorries were destroyed in the attack[167] and one insurgent was killed in the raid.[168] On the same day, a convoy consisting of one-hundred soldiers attempted to cross a bridge at Rubizhne, near Luhansk, and advance into insugent-held territory.[169] They were ambushed by a group of between 300 and 500 insurgents. After fighting that lasted throughout the day, the soldiers were forced to retreat. Between two and fourteen soldiers, and seven and twenty insurgents were killed during the fighting. Three army infantry combat vehicles and one lorry were destroyed, and another three armoured vehicles were captured by the insurgents.[169][170][171] The Internal Affairs ministry stated that some insurgents had attempted to enter Luhansk Oblast from Russia, but had been repelled by border guards.[172]

Following a declaration by Pavel Gubarev establishing the "New Russia Party" on 22 May, representatives of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics signed an agreement creating the confederative state of New Russia. Separatists planned to incorporate most of Ukraine's southern and eastern regions into the new confederation, including the key cities of Kharkiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia and Odessa.[173] The declaration signed established the position of Russian Orthodoxy as the state religion and an intention to nationalise key industries.[174]

A unit of the pro-government Donbas Battalion volunteer paramilitary attempted to advance on a separatist checkpoint near the village of Karlivka, northwest of Donetsk city, on 23 May.[175][176] They were ambushed by a group of between 150 and 200 separatists, supported by one of the captured armoured personnel carriers. The pro-government paramilitary was surrounded by the separatists, and outnumbered six to one, until fighters affiliated with the nationalist Right Sector broke through the separatist lines to allow some members of the group to escape.[176] Five members of the Donbas Battalion were killed, along with four separatists.[176][177][178] Twenty of the pro-government paramilitaries were wounded, and at least four were captured. The involvement of Right Sector was disputed by the leadership of the Donbas Battalion.[179] Pro-Russian leader Igor Bezler said that he executed all of the captured paramilitaries.[180] Another separatist leader confirmed four of their fighters were killed, and also said that ten pro-government paramilitaries and two civilians died.[170] During the same day, two pro-Russian separatists were killed during an assault by the pro-government "Ukraine Battalion" paramilitary on an occupied local government building in Torez.[181][182][183]

Airport battle and fighting in Luhansk

On the morning of 26 May, 200 pro-Russian insurgents, including members of the Vostok Battalion, captured the main terminal of the Donetsk International Airport, erected roadblocks around it, and demanded that government forces withdraw.[184] Soon after these demands were issued, the Ukrainian National Guard issued an ultimatum to the separatists, asking them to surrender. This was subsequently rejected. Government forces then launched an assault on separatist positions at the airport with paratroopers and airstrikes.[185][186] Attack helicopters were also used by government forces. They targeted a separatist-operated anti-aircraft gun.[187] An estimated forty insurgents died in the fighting, with some civilians caught in the crossfire.[188][189][190] Between fifteen and thirty-five insurgents were killed in a single incident, when two lorries carrying wounded fighters away from airport were destroyed in an ambush by government forces.[191][191][192][192]

During the fighting at the airport, Druzhba Arena in Donetsk city was ransacked by pro-Russian insurgents, who looted the building and destroyed surveillance equipment, and set it ablaze.[190][193] Concurrently, Donetsk police said the insurgents had killed two policemen in the nearby town of Horlivka. The Moscow Times reported that the two men had been executed for "breaking their oath to the Donetsk People's Republic".[190][194]

Lugansk People's Republic-affiliated insurgents attacked a Ukrainian National Guard unit in the early hours of 28 May.[195] RIA Novosti reported that eighty National Guard members subsequently surrendered to the insurgents,[196] whilst the National Guard issued a statement that said "there have been losses both in the ranks of the military unit and the attacking side."[195] At least one separatist and one soldier died in the fighting.[196][197]

Escalation in May and June

Mykhailo Koval, the Minister of Defence, said on 30 May that Ukrainian government forces had "completely cleared" the insurgents from the southern and western parts of Donetsk Oblast and the northern part of Luhansk Oblast.[198] On the same day, six insurgents were killed while attempting to the retrieve the bodies of their comrades at the site of the airport battle. A spokesman for the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that two new attacks on the airport had been repelled, with no injuries among government forces.[199] Meanwhile, an internal coup replaced the leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic, and some bodies of Russian fighters killed in the airport battle were repatriated back to Russia.[200]

Luhansk border post siege

Two separatists were killed in a skirmish with Ukrainian border guards on 31 May.[201] Two days later, five separatists were killed when 500 separatists attacked a border post in Luhansk Oblast. Eleven border guards and eight separatists were wounded during the fighting,[202][203] which also killed one civilian.[204] On the same day, between seven and eight people were killed in an explosion at the occupied RSA building in Luhansk city.[205][206] Separatists blamed the incident on a government airstrike, but Ukrainian officials denied this, and claimed that the explosion was caused by a stray surface-to-air missile fired by insurgents.[207][208] The OSCE published a report on the next day, stating that based on "limited observation", they believed that the explosion was caused by an airstrike, verifying separatist claims.[209] The Armed Forces of Ukraine later admitted launching over 150 airstrikes on the day of the explosion in the Luhansk area.[206]

Continued fighting

A restored PTS-2 used by the separatists, shown on a bridge over the Siversky Donets river, near the city Schastia

Government forces destroyed a separatist stronghold in Semenivka, and regained control of Krasnyi Lyman on 3 June.[210] Two soldiers were killed in the fighting, and forty-five were wounded. A spokesman for the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that 300 insurgents were killed during the operation, and that 500 were wounded. Insurgents said they lost between ten and fifty men.[211][212] They said that at least twenty-five were killed while in hospital at Krasnyi Lyman.[213] None of these reports were independently confirmed, and both sides denied the other's accounts of the battle.[211][214][215]

On the next day, insurgents captured the besieged Luhansk border post, as well as a National Guard base near Luhansk city. The fighting in these areas left six insurgents dead, and three government soldiers wounded. Another border post was captured by the insurgents in Sverdlovsk.[216] The National Guard base fell after guardsmen ran out of ammunition. Separatists had earlier seized vast quantities of munitions from the captured border post.[217]

Another border post was attacked on 5 June, in the village of Marynivka.[218] Government officials said that between fifteen and sixteen insurgents were killed and that five soldiers were injured as well.[219][220] A shootout between rival separatist groups in Donetsk city took place on 7 June, near the Donetsk RSA. The vice-president of the Donetsk People's Republic, Maxim Petrukhin, was killed in the fighting, and president Denis Pushilin was wounded.[221]

Russian tank incursion

Ukrainian officials said that Russia had allowed tanks to cross the Russo-Ukrainian border into Donetsk Oblast on 11 June. Internal Affairs Minister Arsen Avakov said "we have observed columns passing with armoured personnel carriers, other armoured vehicles and artillery pieces, and tanks which, according to our information, came across the border and this morning were in Snizhne". He continued by saying Ukrainian forces had destroyed part of the column, and that fighting was still under way. Reuters correspondents confirmed the presence of three tanks in Donetsk city, and the US State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research also said that Russia had indeed sent tanks, along with other heavy weapons, to the separatists in Ukraine.[222] The weapons sent are said to include: a column of three T-64 tanks, several BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, and other military vehicles. "Russia will claim these tanks were taken from Ukrainian forces, but no Ukrainian tank units have been operating in that area," the State Department said in a statement. "We are confident that these tanks came from Russia."[223] The newly elected Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, said that it was "unacceptable" for tanks to be crossing into Ukraine. Russia called the reports "another fake piece of information."[224]

The three tanks were later spotted moving through Makiivka and Torez, flying the flag of the Russian Federation.[225] Insurgents confirmed they had obtained three tanks, but leaders refused to elaborate on how they acquired them; one militant told reporters they originated "from a military warehouse."[226][227] The president of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, stated that the three tanks would be stationed in Donetsk city, and that they gave his forces "at least some hope of defending [Donetsk] because heavy weapons are already being used against us."[227][228] Konstantin Mashovets, a former Ukrainian Defence Ministry official, said the tanks had likely been seized by Russian forces in Crimea before making their way into mainland Ukraine. Anton Heraschenko, an advisor to Arsen Avakov, confirmed at a briefing in Kiev that the tanks were once in the possession of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Crimea, and that they had been transferred by sea to Russia before crossing the border into Ukraine.[229][230]

On the day after the tank incursion, three soldiers were killed when they ambushed by insurgents in Stepanivka.[231] Heavy fighting resumed during the morning of 13 June, when the government launched a new attack against insurgents in Mariupol. Ukrainian troops managed to recapture the city, and declared it the "provisional capital" of Donetsk Oblast until the government regains control over Donetsk city.[6] Meanwhile, an agreement between the Minister of Internal Affairs, Arden Avakov, and the president of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, meant to create a ceasefire and allow civilians to escape the violence in Sloviansk failed, with both sides blaming each other for launching new attacks.[232] During the next morning, a convoy of border guardsmen was attacked by insurgents while passing Mariupol, leaving at least five of the guardsmen dead.[233]

Ilyushin Il-76 shoot-down

A Ukrainian Air Force Ilyushin Il-76MD was shot down by forces aligned with the Lugansk People's Republic on 14 June.[234] The aircraft was preparing to land at Luhansk International Airport, and was carrying troops and equipment from an undisclosed location. All forty-nine people on board died.[234] Meanwhile, two T-72 tanks entered Donetsk, and a skirmish erupted at a military checkpoint in Luhansk, lasting two days.[235][236] At least two civilians died in the fighting.

Battle of Yampil

Late on 19 June, a battle fought with tanks and armoured vehicles broke out in town of Yampil, near government-held Krasnyi Lyman. Up to 4,000 insurgents were present for the fighting, which started, according to the insurgents, after the Armed Forces attempted to capture insurgent-held Yampil,[237] with the goal of breaking through to Seversk.[238] According to the Armed Forces, it started after insurgents attempted to break through a cordon of government troops around government-held Krasny Lyman. The battle was described as exceeding "in terms of force and scale anything there has been" during the conflict in Donbass.[239][240] The Armed Forces deployed both air and artillery strikes in their attempts to rout the insurgents.[241] The battle continued into the next day. Overnight, between seven and twelve soldiers were killed and between twenty-five and thirty were wounded. The Armed Forces said they killed 300 insurgents, but this was not independently verified,[242][243] and although a separatist commander acknowledged heavy losses,[240][244] the separatists confirmed only two deaths and seven wounded on their side.[241][245] The insurgents also said they destroyed one tank, several BMD-1s, and also shot down a Su-25 bomber.[246]

The Ukrainian miltiary said that they had gained control of Yampil and Seversk on 20 June, twenty hours before a unilateral ceasefire by Ukrainian force, as part of president Poroshenko's fifteen-point peace plan.[247] They also acknowledged that there was still heavy fighting in the area around Yampil, and the village of Zakitne.[248] By this point, the number of soldiers killed in the battle had reached 13.[249] During the continued fighting, militants blew up a bridge over the river in the village of Zakitne.[250]

Post-ceasefire government offensive

After a week-long ceasefire unilaterally declared by Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko ended, the Armed Forces renewed their operations against the insurgents on 1 July. Shelling occurred in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and government forces retook a border crossing in Dolzhansk, one of the three major border crossings occupied by the separatists. Government forces also recaptured the villages of Brusivka and Stary Karavan.[251] On the same day, insurgents in Luhansk said that they had taken control of Luhansk International Airport.[252]

Internal Affairs ministry spokesman Zoryan Shkyriak said that over 1,000 pro-Russian insurgents were killed in the first day following the resumption of hostilities.[253] Liga.net, citing a source involved with the government military operation, reported that over 400 insurgents were killed in action, but that the higher figures reported earlier could not be confirmed.[254] Separatists themselves reported only two deaths in fighting at Mykolaivka.[255]

Insurgents attacked a border post in Novoazovsk on 2 July. During the attack, mortars were fired upon the post, and clashes broke out. One border guard was killed in the fighting, and another eight guardsmen were injured.[256][257] Government forces recaptured the town of Mykolaivka, near Sloviansk, on 4 July. A group of DPR-affiliated militants defected as a result, and joined the Ukrainian army.[258]

In a further blow to the insurgents, government forces retook the stronghold of Sloviansk on 5 July.[67] Commander of the DPR insurgents, Igor Girkin, took the decision "due to the overwhelming numerical superiority of the enemy", according to DPR prime minister Alexander Borodai. He said that DPR forces had retreated to Kramatorsk, but BBC News reported that they were seen abandoning their checkpoints in Kramatorsk.[67] Later that day, Borodai confirmed that the insurgents had abandoned "the entire northern sector", including Kramatorsk, and had retreated to Donetsk city.[74] After the retreat of Girkin's forces to Donetsk, he assumed control of the DPR, replacing the previous authorities there in what was described as a "coup d'état".[259]

Subsequently, Ukraine's Armed Forces recaptured Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Artemivsk.[260][260][261][262][263] Amidst the insurgent retreat, Donetsk city mayor Oleksandr Lukyanchenko said that at least 30,000 people had left the city since April.[264] In a separate development, Ukrainian forces said they spotted two aerial drones in Mariupol, and shot one of them down.[265]

Ahead of a planned government offensive on the insurgent-occupied city of Donetsk, key roads leading into the city were blocked on 7 July.[266] Insurgents destroyed railway bridges over the roads, causing them to collapse and block the roads. In another barrier to a diplomatic solution to the conflict, Defence Minister Valeriy Heletey stated on 8 July that there would be "no more unilateral ceasefires", and said dialogue was only possible if the insurgents laid down their weapons.[267] More fighting broke out at Luhansk International Airport on 9 July.[268] LPR-affiliated insurgents said that they had captured the airport on 1 July, but the Ukrainian army managed to maintain control over it. More than 10,000 households in Luhansk Oblast are without gas service due to damage to gas lines, according to a statement on the same day by the regional gas supplier.[269]

Clashes at the Donetsk International Airport continued on 10 July. Insurgents fired mortars at the airport, and attempted to recapture it, but were repelled by the Armed Forces.[270] Ukrainian forces also retook the city of Siversk, which was confirmed by the insurgents.[271] On the same day, the Luhansk city administration reported that six civilians had been injured due to ongoing hostilities across the city.[272] There were also reports of factionalism among the separatists, with some desertions. According to these reports, the Vostok Battalion had rejected the authority of Igor Girkin. Alexander Borodai, prime minister of the DPR, denied these reports, however, and said that they were lies.[273]

Heavy fighting continued in Luhansk Oblast on 11 July. On that day, an Armed Forces column travelling near Rovenky was attacked by an insurgent-operated Grad rocket lorry.[274] An air strike launched by the Armed Forces eventually managed to destroy the rocket launcher, but only after twenty-three soldiers were killed.[275] In response to the attack, Ukrainian president Poroshenko said that "For every life of our soldiers, the militants will pay with tens and hundreds of their own".[274] On the next day, the Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes targeting insurgent positions across Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.[276] The Ukrainian government said that 500 insurgents were killed in these strikes, which they said were retaliation for the separatist rocket attack on the previous day. Four people were killed at Marinka, a western suburb of Donetsk city, after rockets struck an insurgent-held area of the city. The Ukrainian government and separatists blamed each-other for the attack.[277]

Fighting worsens in southern Donetsk Oblast

After a brief lull following the insurgent withdrawal from the northern part of Donetsk Oblast, fighting continued to escalate sharply in the southern parts of Donetsk Oblast. Shells landed on the border town of Donetsk in Rostov Oblast, a part of Russia, on 13 July.[278] One civilian was killed in the shelling. Russian officials blamed the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the shelling, whilst Ukraine denied responsibility and accused insurgents in Donbass of having staged a false flag attack.[279] Russia said it was considering launching airstrikes against government targets in Ukraine as retaliation for the shelling.[280] Ukrainian forces went on to make gains around Luhansk, ending an insurgent blockade of Luhansk International Airport. LPR officials acknowledged that they lost thirty men during fighting in the village of Oleksandrivka.[281] The insurgent-occupied town of Snizhne was hit by rockets fired from an aeroplane on 15 July, leaving at least eleven people dead, and destroying multiple homes.[282] The insurgents blamed the Air Force of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian government denied any involvement in the attack.

Clashes broke out between insurgents and the Armed Forces along the border with Russia in Shakhtarsk Raion on 16 July. Insurgents who had been holed up in the town of Stepanivka made an attempt to escape encirclement by government forces at 05:00.[283] According to a report by the National Guard, a roadblock near the border village of Marynivka was attacked by the insurgents with tanks, mortar fire, and anti-tank missiles.[284] The checkpoint was shelled for over an hour, causing significant damage to infrastructure in Marynivka. Guardsmen managed to repel attack, and forced the insurgents back to Stepanivka, where fighting continued.[284] The battle then moved to the nearby village of Tarany. At least eleven Ukrainian soldiers died in the fighting.[283] Attempts to form a "contact group" between the insurgents and the Ukrainian government, part of President Poroshenko's "fifteen-point peace plan", failed, leaving little hope of a renewed ceasefire.[283] The insurgents later said that they successfully retook Marynivka from the Armed Forces.[285]

Downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17

A civilian passenger jet, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, was shot down over Hrabove on 17 July, killing all 298 people onboard.[286] DPR-affiliated insurgents blamed the Ukrainian government for disaster, whereas the government blamed Russia and the insurgents. This disaster followed two similar incidents earlier in the week, when two Ukrainian Air Force planes were shot down.[286] Meanwhile, fighting in Luhansk resulted in the loss of electrical power and water services across the city.[287] Shelling by the Ukrainian government damaged an electrical substation in the district Kamennobrodskiy, causing the power loss. An oil refinery in Lysychansk was also set alight.[287] At least twenty civilians were killed in the shelling of Luhansk, according to a statement by the city administration.[288] The statement said that a barrage of rockets hit "virtually every district". The shelling forced OSCE monitors to flee from their office in Luhansk, and move to Starobilsk.[289] Government forces went on to capture the south-eastern section of the city.[290] Another sixteen people died overnight, and at least sixty were wounded.[291] According to a government report, Luhansk airport was secured by government forces amidst the battle.[292]

Government push into Donetsk and Luhansk cities

Heavy fighting also resumed around Donetsk airport overnight, and explosions were heard in all districts of the city. The city fell quiet by 09:00 on 19 July.[293] By 21 July, heavy fighting in Donetsk had begun again.[294][295] Donetsk was rocked by explosions, and heavy weapons fire caused smoke to rise over the city. Fighting was concentrated in the northwestern districts of Kyivsky and Kuibyshevsky, and also near the central railway station and airport, leading local residents to seek refuge in bomb shelters, or to flee the city.[296][297] The city's water supply was cut off during the fighting, and all railway and bus service was stopped.[298][299] The streets emptied, and insurgents erected barricades across the city to control traffic.[300] The cities of Dzerzhynsk, Soledar, and Rubizhne[301] were also recaptured by government forces.[302]

The suburb of Mayorsk, just outside Horlivka, and the city of Sievierodonetsk, in Luhansk Oblast, were recaptured by the Armed Forces on 22 July.[303][304] OSCE monitors visiting Donetsk following the previous day's fighting there said that the city was "practically deserted", and that the fighting had stopped.[305] On the same day, DPR prime minister Alexander Borodai said that he wanted to resume ceasefire talks. DPR commander Igor Strelkov also said "The time has come when Russia must take a final decision – to really support Donbas's Russians or abandon them forever".[306] Also, the pro-Ukrainian paramilitary Donbas Battalion captured Popasna.[307] After having retaken Sievierodonetsk, government forces fought insurgents around the neighbouring city of Lysychansk.[308] An insurgent car bomb killed three soldiers during the fighting there. Grad rocket attacks were launched against government forces garrisoned at Vesela Hora, Kamysheve, and also Luhansk airport. The press centre for the government military operation said that situation remained "most complex" in the areas around "Donetsk city, Luhansk city, Krasnodon and Popasna".[309] Government forces broke through the insurgent blockade around Donetsk airport on 23 July, and then advanced into the northwestern corner of Donetsk city.[310] Subsequently, the insurgents withdrew from many areas on the outskirts of the city, including Karlivka, Netailove, Pervomaiske, and the area around Donetsk airport.[310] Insurgent commander Igor Girkin said that this was done to fortify Donetsk city centre, and also to avoid being encircled by government forces. He also said that he did not expect a government incursion into Donetsk city centre.[310] Meanwhile, clashes continued in Shakhtarsk Raion, along the border with Russia. Amidst the fighting, two Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jets that had been providing air support to ground forces near Dmytrivka were shot down by the insurgents.[311]

By the next day, government forces recaptured Lysychansk.[312] On the same day, fighting raged around Horlivka.[313] Government forces launched air and artillery strikes on insurgents within the city, and clashes were fought all around it. One important bridge collapsed in the fighting, severing a critical route out of the city. People fled the violence in cars and on foot.[313] Despite these advances by the Armed Forces, the border with Russia was not secured. Izvaryne border post in Luhansk Oblast, which is controlled by the Army of the South-East, was reported to be the main entry point for weapons and reinforcements from Russia.[313] Shelling began again in the Kyivsky, Kirovsky and Petrivsky districts of Donetsk city. According to Donetsk city administration, eleven houses were damaged in Petrivsky, and at least one man was injured.[314] The fighting continued overnight into 26 July, with explosions, shelling, and shooting heard across the city.[315] As part of the third day of the government's offensive on the insurgent-stronghold of Horlivka, between twenty and thirty civilians were killed on 27 July.[316] Horlivka was virtually abandoned, with electric power and water cut off. Shelling damaged or destroyed many buildings, including a hospital, greengrocer's, and energy company office.[317] Ukrainian troops also entered the town of Shakhtarsk, fought the insurgents that had been occupying it, and captured it around 14:30.[318] This cut off the supply corridor between the territories held by the DPR and LPR, isolating insurgents in Donetsk city.[319] According to the Russian government, forty-one Ukrainian soldiers crossed into Russia and said that they refused to fight against their own people.[320]

Maps of the insurgency

Donetsk Oblast

This map may not be up to date with the latest events.[321]

Luhansk Oblast

This map may not be up to date with the latest events.
Armed Conflict in Luhansk Oblast:
Administrative buildings captured by pro-Russian forces
Administrative buildings recaptured by government forces during the counter-offensive
Border post

Combatants

Forces foreign and domestic have participated in the conflict in the Donbass.

Domestic insurgents

Donbass People's Militia

The flag of the Donbass People's Militia.

Igor Girkin, who commanded the Donbass People's Militia in Sloviansk, denied Russian involvement in the insurgency.[353] He said his unit was formed during the Crimean crisis, and that two-thirds of its members were Ukrainian citizens. Girkin also said that the Sloviansk insurgents had agreed to work with the leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic, despite some conflict between insurgent groups.[354] According to a spokesman for the Donetsk People's Republic, the militants that occupied Sloviansk were "an independent group…supporting the Donetsk protest",[355] while insurgents in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk identified themselves as members of Pavel Gubarev's Donbass People's Militia.[71][356]

The group's forces at Sloviansk included some professional soldiers amongst their ranks, as well as retired veterans, civilians, and volunteers, while those in Donetsk have been confirmed to include former Berkut special police officers.[59] When asked by The Sunday Telegraph where their weapons had come from, one veteran of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan nodded at the Russian flag flying from the police station and said: "Look at that flag. You know which country that represents".[59] An insurgent commander in Donetsk, Pavel Paramonov, told journalists he was from Tula Oblast in Russia.[357] In Horlivka, police who defected were commanded by a Lieutenant Colonel of the Russian Army,[358] later identified as Igor Bezler. Former Soviet military veteran Vyacheslav Ponomarev, who declared himself mayor of Sloviansk, said that he appealed to old military friends to take part in the militia: "When I called on my friends, practically all of whom are ex military, they came to our rescue, not only from Russia but also from Belarus, Kazakhstan and Moldova".[359]

A former separatist militant corroborated these stories in an interview with Radio Free Europe. He said that fighters, including some Cossack units, arrived from Russia to support the separatists.[360] Another interview with an insurgent from Saint Petersburg was published in Gazeta. He claimed to be fighting voluntarily as part of the "Russian Imperialist Movement."[361]

Army of the South-East

The Army of the South-East (Template:Lang-ru, Armiya Yugo-Vostoka) is a pro-Russian militant group that has occupied buildings in Luhansk Oblast.[362][363] According to The Guardian, their personnel include former members of the disbanded Berkut special police.[362] They are affiliated with the Lugansk People's Republic.

Russian Orthodox Army

The Russian Orthodox Army (Template:Lang-ru, Russkaya pravoslavnaya armiya) is a pro-Russian insurgent group in Ukraine that was founded in May 2014, as part of the insurgency.[364] It reportedly had 100 members at the time of its founding, including locals and Russian volunteers. As fighting between separatists and the Ukrainian government worsened in Donbass, their membership rose to 350, and later 4,000.[365] Notable engagements of the ROA include the June 2014 skirmishes in Mariupol and Amvrosiivka Raion.[366] The headquarters of the ROA is located in an occupied Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) building in Donetsk city.[367] They swear allegiance to Igor Girkin, insurgent and minister of defence of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic. According to the Defence Ministry of Ukraine, the ROA is in conflict with the another pro-Russian militia, the Vostok Battalion, who accused the ROA of looting, and avoiding combat.[368][369]

Foreign groups

Vostok Battalion

The Vostok Battalion (Template:Lang-ru, Template:Lang-uk; lit. "East Battalion") was formed in early May 2014. It is commanded by Alexander Khodаkovsky, a defector from the Security Service of Ukraine.[370] Khodakovsky is the chief of the DPR's security service, and of the Patriotic Forces of Donbass, an insurgent battalion.[371][372]

Vostok reportedly includes member of the original Vostok Battalion, a special forces unit of the Russian intelligence directorate (GRU) that participated in the Second Chechen and Russo-Georgian Wars. The original battalion was incorporated in 2009 into a Russian Defence Ministry reserve unit that is based in Chechnya.[373] Khodakovsky said he had about 1,000 men at his disposal, and that more "volunteers" with experience in the Russian security sector were expected to join the battalion.[370] A report by Radio Free Europe said that there were suspicions that the battalion was either created directly by the GRU, or that it was at least sanctioned by it.[373] The battalion includes both fighters from Russia and from Ukraine.[200] A BBC News report said that the battalion was composed largely of untrained locals from eastern Ukraine, with a smattering of Russian volunteers.[374] A number of the Vostok insurgents were killed at the Battle of Donetsk Airport. Thirty bodies were repatriated to Russia after the fighting.[375] Some of the members said they received salaries of 100 US dollars a week, though they maintained that were only volunteers.[376]

Cossacks

Don Cossack volunteers have participated in Ukraine's separatist uprising,[377] including Registered Cossacks of the Russian Federation from Belorechensk, Krasnodar Krai.[378] Several of these Cossacks formed a paramilitary unit called the 'Terek Wolves Sotnia', a reference to a detachment of White emigre Cossacks that fought against the Soviet Union during the Second World War.[379][380] Prominent fighters include Alexander "Boogeyman" Mozhaev (a Russian military veteran from Belorechensk) and the unit's commander, Evgeny Ponomarev.[379][381]

Although Cossack units have been prohibited from crossing the Russian border into Ukraine en masse,[377] allegations have been made that Russian elements tacitly support the individual fighters in crossing the border into Ukraine.[381][381] The Cossacks claim that it is their faith in Cossack brotherhood, Russian imperialism, and the Russian Orthodox Church that has driven them to take part in the insurgency with the aim of conquering what they perceive as "historically Russian lands."[380] On 20 May, Mozhaev issued a video address to Vladimir Putin to open a land corridor to Russia to allow for reinforcements in what he called a "Sacred War."[382] Mozhaev also alleged that some of the more extreme views of the Cossacks include destroying "the Jew-Masons," who they claim have been "fomenting disorder all over the world" and "causing us, the common Orthodox Christian folk, to suffer."[383] On 25 May, the SBU arrested thirteen Russian Cossacks in Luhansk.[384]

Caucasian armed groups
Insurgents in Donetsk

The Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry has said that the presence of foreign soldiers amounted to "undisguised aggression" from Russia, and "the export of Russian terrorism to our country". "There are grounds to affirm that Russian terrorists funnelled on to the territory of Ukraine are being organised and financed through the direct control of the Kremlin and Russian special forces," the ministry said.[385] To date, reports and interviews have shown the presence of Chechen, Ossetian, Tajik, Afghan, Armenian, and various Russian paramilitary forces operating in Ukraine.[386][387]

Chechen paramilitaries

On 4 May, a union of Chechen war veterans claimed that over 1,000 Chechen soldiers had been sent to Ukraine[388][389] and Chechen paramilitaries were allegedly spotted in Sloviansk the following day.[390] On 7 May the Chechen president, Ramzan Kadyrov, threatened to send tens of thousands of Chechen "volunteers" to the south of Ukraine if the "junta" in Kiev continued its "punitive operations."[391] It has been reported that Kadyrov has engaged in an aggressive recruitment campaign in Chechnya for this operation, with witnesses claiming of recruitment centres in Grozny, Achkhoy-Martyan, Znamensky, and Gudermes.[392] The Kavkazcenter, the official website of the North Caucasus Islamic insurgency, claimed in mid-March, first, that the Chechen authorities had opened recruiting offices for "volunteers" wishing to fight in Ukraine and then that those offices had subsequently been suddenly closed.[393]

An armed militiaman in Sloviansk, 14 April 2014

On 24 May, five lorries crossed the Ukraine-Russia border carrying militants aboard, with some reports suggesting among the militants were veteran Chechen soldiers.[394][395] The following day units of the 'Vostok Battalion' arrived in Donetsk among a group of eight lorries filled with twenty soldiers each. The soldiers spoke Chechen, and confirmed to the crowd they were from Chechnya.[396][397][398] An American news crew was informed by fighters that they were Chechen volunteers.[399]

Ramzan Kadyrov, however, denied knowledge of the use of Chechen troops in Ukraine,[400][401] but a separatist commander however later confirmed that Chechens and militants of other ethnicities formed part of the among the ranks of the Donetsk People's Militia.[402] In the aftermath of the Battle of Donetsk Airport local authorities claimed that among the wounded militants were Chechens from Grozny and Gudermes.[386]

Chechen militants interviewed by the Financial Times and Vice News alleged that their involvement in the conflict was due to an order given by the Chechen president,[385][386][403] allegations which he strongly denied on 1 June.[404] In his statement he claimed that there are "74,000 Chechens who are willing to go to bring order to the territory of Ukraine," and that he would not send them to Donetsk, but to Kiev.[404]

Ossetian and Abkhaz paramilitaries

On 4 May 2014, the United Ossetia party and the Union of Paratroopers in Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia announced the volunteer recruitment of veterans of the Georgian–Ossetian conflict for "protection of the peaceful population of Ukraine's southeast."[405] Video published by an Osset militant group indicated that they were operating in Donetsk.[406] On 27 May soldiers interviewed admitted that there were 16 fighters from Ossetia operating in Donetsk who had been operating in Donetsk two months prior.[385] The Head of the State Border Service of Ukraine, Mykola Lytvyn, said official records indicate the presence of Abkhaz militants as well.[407]

On 1 June, insurgents from North and South Ossetia were open about their presence to reporters. "In 2008 they were killing us and the Russians saved us. I came here to pay my dues to them," said one named Oleg of the group of 16 within Vostok Battalion.[370]

Russian involvement
Supporters of the Donetsk People's Republic

A significant number of Russian citizens, many veterans or ultranationalists, are currently involved in the ongoing armed conflict, a fact acknowledged by separatist leaders. Carol Saivets, Russian specialist for the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology described the role of Russian soldiers as 'almost certainly' proceeding with the blessing and backing of the Russian state, "even if the Russians are indeed volunteers rather than serving military men".[408] Recruitment for the Donbass insurgents was performed openly in Russian cities using private or voyenkomat facilities, as was confirmed by a number of Russian media.[409][410]

In an interview with French television channel TF1 and Radio Europe1, Russian president Vladimir Putin said: "There are no armed forces, no 'Russian instructors' in Ukraine — and there never were any.".[411]

The well-organised and well-armed pro-Russian militants have been described by Ukrainian media as resembling those which occupied regions of Crimea during the 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine.[56][412] The former deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Admiral Ihor Kabanenko, claims the militants are Russian military reconnaissance and sabotage units.[413] Arsen Avakov stated the militants in Krasnyi Lyman used Russian-made AK-100 series assault rifles fitted with grenade launchers, and that such weapons are only in issue in the Russian Federation. "The Government of Ukraine is considering the facts of today as a manifestation of external aggression by Russia," said Avakov.[69] Militants in Sloviansk arrived in military lorries without license plates.[414]

A US State Department spokeswoman, Jen Psaki, says there is a "broad unity in the international community about the connection between Russia and some of the armed militants in eastern Ukraine".[415] The Ukrainian government released photos of soldiers in eastern Ukraine, which the US State Department says show that some of the fighters are Russian special forces.[415][416] US Secretary of State John Kerry said the militants "were equipped with specialized Russian weapons and the same uniforms as those worn by the Russian forces that invaded Crimea."[417] The US ambassador to the United Nations said the attacks in Sloviansk were "professional," "coordinated," and that there was 'nothing grass-roots seeming about it'.[418] The British foreign secretary, William Hague, stated, "I don't think denials of Russian involvement have a shred of credibility, [...] The forces involved are well armed, well trained, well equipped, well co-ordinated, behaving in exactly the same way as what turned out to be Russian forces behaved in Crimea."[419] The commander of NATO operations in Europe, Philip M. Breedlove, assessed that soldiers appeared to be highly trained and not a spontaneously formed local militia, and that "what is happening in eastern Ukraine is a military operation that is well planned and organized and we assess that it is being carried out at the direction of Russia."[420]

A Russian opposition politician, Ilya Ponomarev, said "I am absolutely confident that in the eastern regions of Ukraine there are Russian troops in very small amounts. And it's not regular soldiers, but likely representatives of special forces and military intelligence."[421]

Klaus Zillikens, head of the OSCE mission in Donetsk, said that the mission has detected signs of "foreign agents" operating in Ukraine, but thus far there is no evidence to confirm that.[422] According to Georgij Alafuzoff, the Director of Intelligence at the European Union Military staff, even if there is a Russian military presence in Ukraine, it is not as large as it was in Crimea. He suggests the militants are mostly local citizens, disappointed by the situation in the country.[423] Nick Paton Walsh, reporting from Donetsk for CNN, stated that the physical appearance of the militants is different from that of the unidentified troops, spotted throughout Crimea while it was in the process of secession.[424]

David Patrikarakos, a correspondent for the New Statesman said the following: "While at the other protests/occupations there were armed men and lots of ordinary people, here it almost universally armed and masked men in full military dress. Automatic weapons are everywhere. Clearly a professional military is here. There’s the usual smattering of local militia with bats and sticks but also a military presence. Of that there is no doubt." [425] Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former American National Security Advisor, said that the events in Donetsk and Luhansk were similar to events in Crimea, which led to its annexation by Russia, and noted that Russia acted similarly.[426]

The New York Times journalists interviewed Sloviansk militants and found no clear link of Russian support: "There was no clear Russian link in the 12th Company’s arsenal, but it was not possible to confirm the rebels’ descriptions of the sources of their money and equipment."[427] Commenting on the presence of the Vostok Battalion within insurgent ranks, Denis Pushilin said on 30 May, "It's simply that there were no volunteers [from Russia] before, and now they have begun to arrive – and not only from Russia."[428] On the Ukrainian state television talk-show Shuster Live on 13 June 2014, the British journalist Mark Franchetti, who had just spent weeks with the Vostok Battalion, described the Battalion as largely untrained locals from eastern Ukraine, with a smattering of Russian volunteers. He also stated that the fighters in the Battalion who were now in the Donbass were "mainly normal, ordinary citizens who are absolutely convinced they are defending their homes - as they put it - against fascism". Franchetti stressed that he was not saying that there were no Russian troops operating in Ukraine, but that he did not come across any himself. He stated "I can only speak about what I saw with my own eyes".[374]

In a meeting held on 7 July in Donetsk city, Russian politician Sergey Kurginyan held a press conference with representatives of Donbass People's Militia, including Pavel Gubarev, and said that Russia did provide significant military support for the separatists. During a discussion among the participants, Gubarev complained that the arms that had been sent was old, and not fully functional. In response, Kurginyan listed specific items, including 12,000 automatic rifles, grenade launchers, 2S9 Nona self-propelled mortars, two BMPs, and three tanks, that he knew had been supplied to the separatists by Russia. He also said he saw new, fully functional weapons unloaded at locations in Donbass which he would not "disclose as we are filmed by cameras". Kurginyan admitted that Russia had initially sent "4th category weapons", but since 3 June had supplied equipment that was fully functional. He also said one of his goals whilst in Donetsk was to ensure that military support from Russia was increased.[429][430][431]

On July 24th, a week after the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, most likely by pro-Russian forces, the American government stated that it had evidence that the Russian military was firing on Ukrainian territory from across the border. A spokesman for the US Department of Defence stated that there was "no question" as to Russia's involvement in the attacks on Ukrainian Armed Forces.[432]

Training facility

In a press briefing by the Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC), Andriy Parubiy stated that militants were trained in a military facility in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. "Near Rostov-on-Don, there is a big military base where terrorists are preparing for deployment into the territory of the Ukrainian state. This is confirmed not only by our intelligence, but also Russian prisoners who were detained, and they testify about this base," Parubiy said. He added that more than a thousand militants are trained by Russian instructors, and then they in small armed groups try to break into the territory of Ukraine.[433] On 21 May, a Russian citizen with military experience was detained trying to enter the country, who upon investigation, was found to have recently trained in the Rostov facility.[434]

According to Russian 'volunteer' insurgent organiser Aleksandr Zhuchkovsky, Rostov-on-Don acts as a staging area for the activity where soldiers live in hotels, rented apartments and tent camps.[408]

According to Jen Psaki, the United States Department of State is confident that Russia has sent tanks and rocket launchers from a deployment site in southwest Russia into eastern Ukraine,[435] and NATO satellite imagery has shown that on 10 and 11 June main battle tanks were stationed across the border at Donetsk in a staging area in Rostov-on-Don.[436][437]

Counter-insurgency forces

Donbas Battalion training group near Kiev

Armed Forces of Ukraine

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are the primary military force of Ukraine, and have taken a leading role in countering the insurgency in Donetsk and Luhansk.

National Guard of Ukraine

The National Guard of Ukraine was re-established on 13 March 2014, amidst rising tensions in Ukraine during the Crimean crisis.[438] It is a reserve component of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and a light infantry force. This stands in contrast to the old National Guard, which was a mechanised infantry force.

Ministry of Internal Affairs

The Ministry of Internal Affairs is commonly known as the militsiya, and is the primary police force in Ukraine. It is led by the Internal Affairs Minister, Arsen Avakov, a key figure in leading the counter-insurgency operations in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Pro-government paramilitaries

Several pro-Ukrainian paramilitaries have been formed, and have fought against the Donbass People's Militia and other insurgent groups. These forces include the Donbas Battalion, Azov Battalion, Kharkiv Battalion, and Oleh Lyashko's militia.[439]

After having defeated separatists there, the town of Shchastya in Luhansk Oblast was occupied by the Aidar Battalion on 9 July.[440] While subordinate to the Ministry of Defence, the battalion took control of the town in the same manner has the separatists had done earlier. Another paramilitary unit, the Azov Battalion, is aligned with the far-right ultranationalist group Social-National Assembly.[441][442] "More than half of the battalion’s fighters are Russian-speaking eastern Ukrainians."[441] The Internal Affairs ministry has denied claims that foreign citizens are fighting in the Azov Battalion,[442] though a man calling himself "Mikael Skillt" told a BBC journalist on the telephone that he was a Swedish sniper serving in the Azov Battalion.[442] According to the BBC report, Mr Skillt said "there are only a handful of foreign fighters in the Azov Battalion and they do not get paid".[442] Al-Jazeera interviewed a Canadian volunteer with the Azov Battalion, and reported that the battalion's "ideological alignment with other far-right, social-nationalist groups has attracted volunteers from organisations in Sweden, Italy, France, Canada, and Russia".[441]

The Russian Foreign Ministry asked the governments of Sweden, Finland, the Baltic states, and France to conduct a thorough investigation into reports of mercenaries from their countries serving Ukrainian forces, following a story in the Italian newspaper Il Giornale.[443][444][445]

Humanitarian concerns

The United Nations observed an "alarming deterioration" in human rights in insurgent-held territory.[446] The UN reported growing lawlessness in the region, documenting cases of targeted killings, torture, and abduction, primarily carried out by the forces of the Donetsk People's Republic.[447] The UN also reported threats against, attacks on, and abductions of journalists and international observers, as well as the beatings and attacks on supporters of Ukrainian unity.[447] A report by Human Rights Watch said "Anti-Kiev forces in eastern Ukraine are abducting, attacking, and harassing people they suspect of supporting the Ukrainian government or consider undesirable…anti-Kiev insurgents are using beatings and kidnappings to send the message that anyone who doesn’t support them had better shut up or leave".[448]

In a report from the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission,[449] Ivan Šimonović, UN Assistant Secretary General for Human Rights,[450] wrote about illegal detention, abduction and intimidation of election officials, and called for urgent action to prevent a Balkans-style war.[451] He also warned of a humanitarian crisis due to a failure of social services in the region, and an exodus of people from affected areas.[452] He said, "Donetsk is on the verge of collapse of social services" due to a shortage of crucial supplies, such as medicines like insulin.[453] A medicine shortage was confirmed by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.[454]

According to UNICEF, "The results of a psychosocial assessment of children in Donetsk Oblast in Eastern Ukraine are deeply troubling ... and indicate that about half of all children aged 7-18 have been directly exposed to adverse or threatening events during the current crisis."[455] OSCE monitors spoke to refugees from Donetsk city in Zaporizhzhia. They said that men were not allowed to leave the city, but were instead "forcibly enrolled in 'armed forces' of the so-called 'Donetsk People's Republic' or obliged to dig trenches".[456]

Hostage crisis

Since the start of the conflict, at least twelve people, including journalists, city officials, local politicians, and members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have been taken hostage by Donetsk People's Republic separatists. Sloviansk has held the highest concentration of hostages, with self-proclaimed mayor Vyacheslav Ponomarev having claimed to hold at least ten.[citation needed]

Insurgents in Donetsk raided the city's International Committee of the Red Cross office at 19:00 on 9 May, and captured large stocks of medical supplies.[457][458] They detained between seven and nine Red Cross workers.[457][458] Those taken prisoner were accused of espionage, and held in the occupied Donetsk RSA building. They were later released on 10 May. One of the prisoners was found to have to been severely beaten.[458][459][460]

The OSCE mission in Ukraine lost contact with four of its monitors in Donetsk Oblast on 26 May, and another four in Luhansk Oblast on 29 May.[461] Both groups were held for a month, until being freed on 27 and 28 June respectively.[462]

Refugees

Refugees from Donetsk and Luhansk have either gone to parts of western and central Ukraine, such as Poltava Oblast.[463] Around 2,000 families from Donetsk and Luhansk are reported to have taken refuge in the southern Ukrainian city of Odessa.[464] Other refugees from Luhansk have fled to Russia during the week-long ceasefire that was declared 23 June and in effect until 27 June.[465] 110,000 people, at minimum, have left Ukraine for Russia in the wake of the conflict, according to a United Nations report.[466] Refugees clustered around Rostov-on-Don, with 12,900 people, including 5,000 children, housed in public buildings and tent camps there.[466] Similarly, the report stated that around 54,400 are internally displaced people within Ukraine itself.[466]

Between 15,000 and 20,000 refugees arrived in Svyatogorsk from Sloviansk after the Ukrainian Armed Forces intensified shelling on the city at the end of May. Remaining residents of the besieged city were without water, gas, and electricity. Despite this, most residents remained. Russian officials said that 70,000 refugees had fled across the border into Russia since the fighting began.[467] Starting on 30 May, at least 1,589 refugees from Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts were provided temporary accommodation in railway stations and railway hotels by Southern Railways.[468] The largest number of refugees, 1,409 people, stayed at Kharkiv-Pasazhyrskiy railway station.

Camps for internally displaced persons have been established in Kharkiv Oblast.[456] OSCE monitors visited one camp at Havryshi, in Bohodukhiv Raion, after northern Donetsk Oblast had been retaken by government forces. Some of those displaced people had visited Sloviansk, and said that there was a lack of water, electrical power, food, and that banks were not operating. Some decided to continue to stay in the camp until conditions in Sloviansk improved, whereas others decided to return. By 16 July, thirty-six people had returned to Sloviansk.[456] Another seventy people were meant to return on the day. Some sixty-five from other conflict areas also checked into the camp. According to railway operators, some 3,100 people used the Kharkiv–Sloviansk railway from 9–14 July.[456] OSCE monitors also met with some refugees in Zaporizhzhia. The refugees said that many residents of Donetsk wanted to leave, but were unable to because they lacked the financial resources to do so. Trains leaving Donetsk were said to be filled to capacity, forcing many refugees to use private motorcars to escape.[456]

War crimes accusations

According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, the arbiter of international humanitarian law, the conflict is a "war", meaning that war crimes investigations can be held.[469] A press release from the organisation said "These rules and principles [international humanitarian law] apply to all parties to the non-international armed conflict in Ukraine, and impose restrictions on the means and methods of warfare that they may use".[470][471]

On 24 July, Human Rights Watch accused Ukrainian government forces and pro-government militias of indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas, stating that "The use of indiscriminate rockets in populated areas violates international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, and may amount to war crimes." It also stated that pro-Russian rebels forces have "failed to take all feasible precautions to avoid deploying in civilian areas" and in one case "actually moved closer to populated areas as a response to govenrment shelling"[472][473]

After attacks by Ukrainian troops in the eastern city of Mariupol, American scholar of Russian studies Stephen F. Cohen said: "If a war crime was committed in Eastern Ukraine, we applauded it."[474]

Reactions

Many observers have asked both the Ukrainian government and the insurgents to seek peace, and ease tensions in Donetsk and Luhansk.

  •  United Nations – A press release issued on behalf of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stressed the importance of "constructive and results-oriented dialogue between all concerned", and of adherence to the terms of the Geneva Statement on Ukraine.[475] The statement also made clear that the situation "remains extremely volatile".[475]
  •  Russian Federation – The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Ukrainian authorities of "blaming" the Russian government for all its troubles and stated "Ukrainian people want to get a clear answer from Kiev to all their questions. It's time to listen to these legal claims".[37][476] It also stated it was "carefully observing" events in the east and south of Ukraine, and again called for "real constitutional reform" that would turn Ukraine into a federation.[477] In an 7 April opinion piece in The Guardian, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov wrote that it was Europe and the United States, and not Russia, that was guilty of destabilising Ukraine and that "Russia is doing all it can to promote early stabilisation in Ukraine".[477][478] The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a stern condemnation of the "criminal order" by Kiev for armed aggression against Donetsk: "The Kiev authorities, who self-proclaimed themselves as a result of a coup, have embarked on the violent military suppression of the protests," demanding that "the Maidan henchmen, who overthrew the legitimate president, to immediately stop the war against their own people, to fulfill all the obligations under the Agreement of 21 February."[479]
  •  United StatesUS Secretary of State John Kerry said on 7 April 2014 that the events "did not appear to be spontaneous" and called on Russia to "publicly disavow the activities of separatists, saboteurs and provocateurs" in a phone call to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.[37] A spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council has noted that the separatists appeared to be supported by Russia. "We saw similar so-called protest activities in Crimea before Russia's purported annexation," she said in a statement, adding: "We call on President (Vladimir) Putin and his government to cease all efforts to destabilize Ukraine, and we caution against further military intervention."[70] US-Ukraine ambassador Geoffrey R. Pyatt characterised the pro-Russian militants as terrorists.[480]

Labelling of the conflict

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization considers the conflict a war with Russian irregulars,[481] and others consider it to be a proxy war.[482][483][484] The International Committee of the Red Cross, the arbiter of international humanitarian law for the United Nations, described the events in the Donbass region as a "non-international armed conflict".[470][469] Some news agencies, such as the Information Telegraph Agency of Russia and Reuters, interpreted this statement as meaning that Ukraine was in a state of "civil war".[485][486]

Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada and former acting Ukrainian president Oleksandr Turchynov considers the conflict a direct war with Russia.[487]

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