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2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

(Redirected from United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018)

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2018 Pennsylvania Senate election.

The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15.[1] Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term.[2] Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta,[3] Green Party nominee Neal Gale,[4] and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns.[5] Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.

2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout58.18%
 
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. Lou Barletta
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,792,437 2,134,848
Percentage 55.74% 42.62%
Casey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Barletta:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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On ballot

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Results

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Democratic primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes 752,008 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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On ballot

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Jim Christiana

State senators

State representatives

Newspapers

Cynthia E. Ayers (withdrew)

Individuals

  • Brigadier General Ken Chrosniak, former instructor at the U.S. Army War College[28]
  • Henry Cooper, former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative[28]
  • Dr. Brian Hay, business executive and national security expert[29]
  • Major General Robert B. Newman Jr., former Adjutant General of Virginia (USAF)[28]
  • Dr. Peter Pry, Director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory board to Congress on policies to counter Weapons of Mass Destruction.[28]
Bobby Lawrence (withdrew)

Individuals

  • Jeremy Hanson, host of Unleashed: The Jeremy Hanson Show[30]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Lou
Barletta 		Jim
Christiana 		Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana)[31] April 2018 >400 – 32% 11% – 58%
Bellwether Research (R-Addis)[32] September 20–24, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 22% – <10% 60%

Results

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Results by county:
  Barletta—>90%
  Barletta—80–90%
  Barletta—70–80%
  Barletta—60–70%
  Barletta—50–60%
  Christiana—50–60%
  Christiana—60–70%
  Christiana—70–80%
Republican primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lou Barletta 433,312 63.03%
Republican Jim Christiana 254,118 36.97%
Total votes 687,430 100.00%

Libertarian Party

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Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018.[34]

Candidates

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Nominee

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Green Party

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Candidates

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Nominee

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  • Neal Gale, clean energy consultant[4]

General election

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Candidates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[37] Likely D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[38] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Safe D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[40] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[41][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
CNN[42] Likely D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[43] Likely D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

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Lou Barletta (R)

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State senators

State representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Local and state officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Neal Gale (G)

Organizations

Dale Kerns (L)

Governors

State and local politicians

  • Brandon Magoon, Majority Inspector of Elections Erie 6-1[86] (Republican)
  • Jennifer Moore, Upper Providence Township Auditor[87] (Libertarian)
  • Bruno Novak, Judge of Elections, Hempfield-3[86] (Libertarian)
  • Michael Oehling Jr, Buffalo Township Republican Committeeman and Auditor[87]

Individuals

  • Bobby Lawrence, former Republican U.S. Senate candidate and small business owner[87]

Organizations

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Lou
Barletta (R) 		Other Undecided
Change Research[88] November 2–4, 2018 1,833 – 51% 44% 3%[89] –
Research Co.[90] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 56% 39% 1% 4%
Muhlenberg College[91] October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 54% 40% – –
Franklin & Marshall College[92] October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 50% 35% – 14%
537 RV ± 6.0% 50% 31% 4%[93] 14%
Morning Consult[94] October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 47% 32% – 21%
Franklin & Marshall College[95] September 17–23, 2018 204 LV – 50% 33% – 15%
545 RV ± 6.1% 48% 30% 4%[96] 20%
Ipsos[97] September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 53% 37% 3% 7%
Muhlenberg College[98] September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 53% 35% 7%[99] 6%
Rasmussen Reports[100] September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 38% 2% 8%
Franklin & Marshall College[101] August 20–26, 2018 222 LV – 47% 34% 1% 19%
511 RV ± 6.1% 48% 29% 3%[102] 20%
NBC News/Marist[103] August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 53% 38% 1% 8%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)[104] August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 47% 45% 2% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[105] June 11 – July 2, 2018 990 ± 4.5% 55% 41% – 5%
Suffolk University[106] June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 47% 32% 1% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College[107] June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 44% 27% 1% 28%
Muhlenberg College[108] April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 48% 32% 8% 18%
Franklin & Marshall College[109] March 19–26, 2018 423 ± 6.8% 43% 25% 2% 30%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[110] March 15–16, 2018 1,056 ± 3.0% 54% 36% – 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[111] February 12 – March 5, 2018 2,165 ± 3.8% 52% 43% – 5%
Hypothetical polling

with Jim Christiana

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Jim
Christiana (R) 		Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College[108] April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 48% 29% 3% 20%

with generic Democrat and Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[110] March 15–16, 2018 1,056 ± 3.0% 53% 41% 7%

Results

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United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018[112]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 2,792,437 55.74% +2.05%
Republican Lou Barletta 2,134,848 42.62% −1.97%
Libertarian Dale Kerns 50,907 1.02% −0.70%
Green Neal Gale 31,208 0.62% N/A
Total votes 5,009,400 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Casey won 11 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st and 10th districts, which elected Republicans to the House.[113]

District Barletta Casey Jr. Representative
1st 41.65% 56.72% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 20.33% 78.53%
Brendan Boyle
3rd 5.76% 93.06% Dwight Evans
4th 34.11% 64.36% Madeleine Dean
5th 30.84% 67.88% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 39.17% 59.05% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 42.21% 56.07% Susan Wild
8th 47.02% 51.84%
Matt Cartwright
9th 58.77% 39.57% Dan Meuser
10th 48.19% 49.78% Scott Perry
11th 55.77% 42.04% Lloyd Smucker
12th 60.26% 37.80% Tom Marino
13th 64.15% 34.20% John Joyce
14th 52.34% 46.04% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 60.19% 38.04% Glenn Thompson
16th 50.21% 48.11% Mike Kelly
17th 40.66% 57.55% Conor Lamb
18th 27.41% 70.86% Mike Doyle

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "2018 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org.
  2. ^ Garcia, Eric (May 4, 2017). "Trump Encouraging Barletta to Challenge Casey in Senate". Roll Call.
  3. ^ "2018 Pennsylvania Election Results". Politico. Retrieved May 16, 2018.
  4. ^ a b "Candidates 2018". Green Party of Pennsylvania. Archived from the original on May 23, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  5. ^ a b c d Rose, Alex (March 7, 2018). "Kerns wins Libertarian nod for U.S. Senate race". Delaware County Daily Times. Retrieved May 25, 2018.
  6. ^ "Casey in Good Position For 2018 Reelection Bid - WNPV Radio 98.5FM & 1440AM". October 16, 2017. Archived from the original on November 12, 2017. Retrieved October 30, 2017.
  7. ^ Pennsylvania Secretary of State. "Pennsylvania primary election results, 2018". Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  8. ^ "Barletta Announces His Candidacy for Senate". Roll Call August 29, 2017. Retrieved August 29, 2017.
  9. ^ Engelkemier, Paul (April 8, 2017). "Christiana Jumps into U.S. Senate Race". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 8, 2017.
  10. ^ Davies, Dave (November 28, 2016). "Pa. businessman exploring a run for governor". NewsWorks. Archived from the original on January 13, 2017. Retrieved January 11, 2017.
  11. ^ Levy, Marc (June 7, 2017). "Ex-Energy Exec Enters Pennsylvania's US Senate Race". WESA. Retrieved June 7, 2017.
  12. ^ a b c d e f g "Pennsylvania 2018 General Election". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved March 26, 2018.
  13. ^ "Cynthia E. Ayers Announces Candidacy for U.S. Senate". Gant Daily. June 21, 2017. Retrieved July 12, 2017.
  14. ^ Engelkeimer, Paul (April 24, 2017). "Bartos Jumps into Senate Race". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 24, 2017.
  15. ^ Tamari, Jonathan (February 10, 2017). "Republicans' next Pennsylvania target: Casey". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  16. ^ Howley, Patrick (May 23, 2017). "EXCLUSIVE: Trumper Bobby Lawrence Announces Senate Run In Pennsylvania". Big League Politics. Retrieved August 27, 2017.
  17. ^ Engelkemier, Paul (February 27, 2017). "Saccone Launches 2018 US Senate Bid". PoliticsPA. Retrieved February 27, 2017.
  18. ^ "Second Republican joins race to unseat Bob Casey". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Associated Press. March 1, 2017. Retrieved March 2, 2017.
  19. ^ O'Boyle, Bill (September 20, 2017). "Shektor drops Senate bid; will run for House seat". Times Leader. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
  20. ^ Potter, Chris (August 1, 2017). "Rep. Mike Kelly pulls out of crowded Senate race for Casey seat". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved August 1, 2017.
  21. ^ "Meehan won't challenge Casey for Senate in 2018, spokesman says". Associated Press.
  22. ^ Engelkemier, Paul (May 12, 2017). "Reed Rules Out Governor and Senate Runs in 2018". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 15, 2017.
  23. ^ "Politics PA".
  24. ^ "Rep. Kerry Benninghoff Endorses Jim Christiana for U.S. Senate" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 16, 2018. Retrieved May 15, 2018.
  25. ^ "David L. Reed official website".
  26. ^ "Jim Christiana's Facebook page". Facebook.
  27. ^ "Our View: Christiana is better choice". The Beaver County Times. May 9, 2018. Archived from the original on May 16, 2018. Retrieved May 15, 2018.
  28. ^ a b c d "Cynthia E. Ayers Endorsements". Cynthia E. Ayers. Archived from the original on September 2, 2017. Retrieved September 2, 2017.
  29. ^ "Cynthia E. Ayers Endorsements". Cynthia E. Ayers. Archived from the original on September 2, 2017. Retrieved September 10, 2017.
  30. ^ "Lawrence Endorsements". Bobby Lawrence. Archived from the original on December 24, 2017. Retrieved July 15, 2017.
  31. ^ Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana) Archived May 11, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  32. ^ Bellwether Research (R-Addis)
  33. ^ Pennsylvania Secretary of State. "Pennsylvania primary election results, 2018". Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  34. ^ Rose, Alex. "Kerns wins Libertarian nod for U.S. Senate race". Daily Times News. Retrieved March 7, 2018.
  35. ^ Day, Lauren. "29-Year-Old Represents His Pennsylvania Stomping Grounds". LI News. Leadership Institute. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  36. ^ "Libertarian Jumps into Senate Race". Retrieved March 17, 2017.
  37. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  38. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  39. ^ "2018 Senate". Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  40. ^ "Elections 2017-18". Daily Kos. September 30, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
  41. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  42. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  43. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  44. ^ Mike Pence. "Great to be in Pennsylvania today supporting my friend @LouForSenate. Lou Barletta will put the interests of the hardworking men & women of PA first and will be an advocate for @RealDonaldTrump's pro-growth economic agenda!". Twitter.
  45. ^ "Rep. Lou Barletta, a Great Republican from Pennsylvania who was one of my very earliest supporters, will make a FANTASTIC Senator. He is strong & smart, loves Pennsylvania & loves our Country! Voted for Tax Cuts, unlike Bob Casey, who listened to Tax Hikers Pelosi and Schumer!". Twitter. February 11, 2018. Retrieved February 11, 2018.
  46. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab "Barletta Rolls Out Endorsements for Senate Bid". PoliticsPA. October 19, 2017.
  47. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Tamari, Jonathan. "Inbox: PA's entire Republican House delegation endorses @RepLouBarletta for Senate". Twitter.
  48. ^ "Proud to endorse @loubarletta for US Senate". Twitter.
  49. ^ Brennan, Chris (July 2, 2018). "Lou Barletta's newest ally against Bob Casey is Nigel Farage, a.k.a 'Mr. Brexit'". The Philadelphia Inquirer.
  50. ^ "Log In or Sign Up to View". www.facebook.com.
  51. ^ a b Eric Trump. "Lara and I loved spending the day in Pennsylvania campaigning for @RepLouBarletta for Senate! He is an incredible guy & a great friend - we desperately need him fighting alongside @realDonaldTrump in #WashingtonDC! #VoteForLou #MAGA #PA". Twitter.
  52. ^ "ABC PA ENDORSES BARLETTA FOR U.S. SENATE". ABC of Pennsylvania. October 24, 2017.
  53. ^ Lou Barletta. "It is an honor to have been endorsed by FOP Fort Pitt Lodge #1 for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania! Grateful for the support of Pittsburgh's finest, I will always have their back. #Lou4Senate". Twitter.
  54. ^ a b c "Lou Barletta Endorsed By National Electrical Contractors Association". Lou Barletta for Senate. August 14, 2018.
  55. ^ "Small Business Endorses Congressman Lou Barletta for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. August 14, 2018.
  56. ^ McCarthy, Reagan. "National Right to Life Endorses Lou Barletta for U.S. Senate Over Incumbent 'Pro-life' Dem Bob Casey". Townhall.
  57. ^ Murphy, Jan (February 10, 2018). "Lou Barletta wins state GOP backing in U.S. Senate race". The Patriot-News.
  58. ^ Students For Trump. ".@SenBobCasey has Pennsylvania values every 6 years when he's up for election. @louforsenate actually holds these values and will bring them to Washington in November!". Twitter.
  59. ^ "For Republican primary voters, Lou Barletta for U.S. Senate". The Patriot-News. May 11, 2018.
  60. ^ "PA-Sen: Joe Biden Helps Bob Casey (D) Get Ready To Defeat Trump's "Political Godfather"". Daily Kos. November 29, 2017.
  61. ^ Bob Casey Jr. ".@BarackObama is counting on you to vote, Pennsylvania. Are you ready?". Twitter.
  62. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Cory Booker (D. NJ) Helps Sen. Bob Casey (D) Defeat Trump's Political Godfather". Daily Kos. May 21, 2018.
  63. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Is Determined To Defeat Trump's "Political Godfather"". Daily Kos. November 13, 2017.
  64. ^ "MN, PA & MT-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats Fight Back Against Trump's Agenda". Daily Kos. May 31, 2018.
  65. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Bob Casey (D) Defeat Trump's Chosen Fringe Candidate". Daily Kos. February 26, 2018.
  66. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D. MA) Helps Fellow net Neutrality Champ Bob Casey (D) Get Ready For Victory". Daily Kos. January 18, 2018.
  67. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Helps Bob Casey (D) Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump & GOP". Daily Kos. November 27, 2017.
  68. ^ "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 28, 2018.
  69. ^ "PA-Sen: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) Helps Bob Casey (D) Defeat Trump's Political Godfather". Daily Kos. February 11, 2018.
  70. ^ Dwight Evans. "Busy evening full of stops at the 59th, 17th and 12th wards talking about the importance of Philadelphia to the @WolfforPA and @Bob_Casey campaigns. Need to get that vote out on Nov. 6th! #ElectionsMatter #GOTV #PAVotesBlue". Twitter.
  71. ^ Lamb, Conor (May 22, 2018). "PA-17, 01, Sen, 08, Gov, 07, 10, 06 & 05: Rep. Conor Lamb (D) Helps Bring The Blue Wave To PA". Daily Kos.
  72. ^ "PA-Sen: Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) Helps Bob Casey (D) Fight Back Against Trump & GOP". Daily Kos. December 20, 2017.
  73. ^ Wolf, Tom (May 22, 2018). "PA-Gov, 17, 08, 05, 10, 01, 06, Sen & 07: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) Brings The Blue Wave To Pennsylvania". Daily Kos.
  74. ^ "Pennsylvania AFL-CIO Candidate Endorsements".
  75. ^ "Pennsylvania - COMPAC Endorsements - UMWA". UMWA.
  76. ^ "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  77. ^ Tiffany Muller (May 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Bob Casey, Heidi Heitkamp and Sheldon Whitehouse for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
  78. ^ Dawe, John (March 30, 2018). "Equality PA endorses Senator Bob Casey, Jr. for Re-Election". Equality Pennsylvania. Archived from the original on April 19, 2018. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
  79. ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Pennsylvania Environmental Champions Senator Casey & Representative Cartwright". League of Conservation Voters. October 23, 2017.
  80. ^ NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support".
  81. ^ Curtis, Kevin (February 16, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund : Sen. Bob Casey endorsed by the NRDC Action Fund". www.nrdcactionfund.org.
  82. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements".
  83. ^ a b "Neal Gale Announces Run for U.S. Senate in PA". Green Party US. Retrieved May 24, 2018.
  84. ^ "Thank you Gary Johnson for your endorsement!". Facebook.
  85. ^ "I endorse". Facebook.
  86. ^ a b "Facebook". Facebook.
  87. ^ a b c "Kerns Endorsements". Dale Kerns. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
  88. ^ Change Research
  89. ^ Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%
  90. ^ Research Co.
  91. ^ Muhlenberg College Archived 2018-11-02 at the Wayback Machine
  92. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  93. ^ Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%; other with 1%
  94. ^ Morning Consult Archived 2018-10-15 at the Wayback Machine
  95. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  96. ^ Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  97. ^ Ipsos
  98. ^ Muhlenberg College
  99. ^ Neal Gale (G) and Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, neither/other with 3%
  100. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  101. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  102. ^ Dale Kerns (L) and Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  103. ^ NBC News/Marist
  104. ^ Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)
  105. ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios
  106. ^ Suffolk University Archived 2018-06-27 at the Wayback Machine
  107. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  108. ^ a b Muhlenberg College
  109. ^ Franklin & Marshall College
  110. ^ a b Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
  111. ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios
  112. ^ "Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results". electionreturns.pa.gov.
  113. ^ "Twitter".
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Official campaign websites

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